The Great Lakes as a test model for profile response to sea level changes /

"December 1984."

An analysis of drag coefficient at hurricane windspeeds from a numerical simulation of dynamical water level changes in Lake Okeechobee, Florida /

"October 1975."

Construction and use of special drawdown scales for predicting water-level changes throughout heavily pumped areas /

Mode of access: Internet.

Ground water level changes and demographic analysis of ground water in Illinois /

"October, 1981."

Conference on Continental Margin Mass-wasting and Pleistocene Sea-level Changes, August 13-15, 1980 /

Mode of access: Internet.

Profit, productivity and price performance changes in the water and sewerage industry:an empirical application for England and Wales

This paper aims to analyse the impact of regulation in the financial performance of the Water and Sewerage companies (WaSCs) in England and Wales over the period 1991–2008. In doing so, a panel index approach is applied across WaSCs over time to decompose unit-specific index number-based profitability growth as a function of the profitability, productivity and price performance growth achieved by benchmark firms, and the catch up to the benchmark firm achieved by less productive firms. The results indicated that after 2000 there is a steady decline in average price performance, while productivity improves resulting in a relatively stable economic profitability. It is suggested that the English and Welsh water regulator is now more focused on passing productivity benefits to consumers, and maintaining stable profitability than it was in earlier regulatory periods. This technique is of great interest for regulators to evaluate the effectiveness of regulation and companies to identify the determinants of profit change and improve future performance, even if sample sizes are limited.

Grain size distribution and sea level changes in Gåsfjärden fjord

We analysed long-term variations in grain-size distribution in sediments from Gåsfjärden, a fjord-like inlet on the south-west Baltic Sea, and explored potential drivers of the recorded changes in sediment grain-size data. Over the last 5.4 thousand years (ka), the relative sea level decreased 17 m in the study region, caused by isostatic land uplift. As a consequence, Gåsfjärden has been transformed from an open coastal setting into a semi-closed inlet surrounded on the east by numerous small islands. To quantitatively estimate the morphological changes in Gåsfjärden over the last 5.4 ka and to further link the changes to our grain-size data, a digital elevation model (DEM)-based openness index was calculated. In the period between 5.4 and 4.4 ka BP, the inlet was characterised by the largest openness index. During this interval, the highest sand contents (~0.4 %) and silt/clay ratios (~0. 3) in the sediment sequence were recorded, indicating relatively high bottom water energy. After 4.4 ka BP, the average sand content was halved to ~0.2 % and the silt/clay ratios showed a significant decreasing trend over the last 4 ka. These changes are found to be associated with the gradual embayment of Gåsfjärden as represented in the openness index. The silt/clay ratios exhibited a delayed and slower change compared with the sand contents, which further suggest that finer particles are less sensitive to changes in hydrodynamic energy. Our DEM-based coastal openness index has proved to be a useful tool for interpreting the sedimentary grain-size record.

Sedimentary archives of climate and sea-level changes during the Holocene in the Rhone prodelta (NW Mediterranean Sea)

A 7.38 m-long sediment core was collected from the eastern part of the Rhone prodelta (NW Mediterranean) at 67 m water depth. A multi-proxy study (sedimentary facies, benthic foraminifera and ostracods, clay mineralogy, and major elements from XRF) provides a multi-decadal to century-scale record of climate and sea-level changes during the Holocene. The early Holocene is marked by alternative silt and clay layers interpreted as distal tempestites deposited in a context of rising sea level. This interval contains shallow infra-littoral benthic meiofauna (e.g. Pontocythere elongata, Elphidium spp., Quinqueloculina lata) and formed between ca. 20 and 50 m water depth. The middle Holocene (ca. 8.3 to 4.5 ka cal. BP), is characterized, at the core site, by a period of sediment starvation (accumulation rate of ca. 0.01 cm yr−1) resulting from the maximum landward shift of the shoreline and the Rhone outlet(s). From a sequence stratigraphic point of view, this condensed interval, about 35 cm-thick, is a Maximum Flooding Surface that can be identified on seismic profiles as the transition between delta retrogradation and delta progradation. It is marked by very distinct changes in all proxy records. Following the stabilization of the global sea level, the late Holocene is marked by the establishment of prodeltaic conditions at the core site, as shown by the lithofacies and by the presence of benthic meiofauna typical of the modern Rhone prodelta (e.g. Valvulineria bradyana, Cassidulina carinata, Bulimina marginata). Several periods of increased fluvial discharge are also emphasized by the presence of species commonly found in brackish and shallow water environments (e.g. Leptocythere). Some of these periods correspond to the multi-decadal to centennial late Holocene humid periods recognized in Europe (i.e. the 2.8 ka event and the Little Ice Age). Two other periods of increased runoffs at ca. 1.3 and 1.1 ka cal. BP are recognized, and are likely to reflect periods of regional climate deterioration that are observed in the Rhone watershed.

RP92-217 #2 Producer Marketing Mangement: Deferred Pricing Alternatives for Grain

Grain producers must make marketing decisions every day. First they must decide whether to price or hold grain. If they decide to price grain, they must then choose the most appropriate method of pricing: cash sale, forward contract, or hedging. If they decide to hold grain (not to price), they must choose the most appropriate method of retaining ownership. This fact sheet presents some guidelines to help producers choose the least costly method of owning grain or speculating on price level changes.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

The macroeconomics of price adjustments under information frictions and menu costs

Esta tese se dedica ao estudo de modelos de fixação de preços e suas implicações macroeconômicas. Nos primeiros dois capítulos analiso modelos em que as decisões das firmas sobre seus preços praticados levam em conta custos de menu e de informação. No Capítulo 1 eu estimo tais modelos empregando estatísticas de variações de preços dos Estados Unidos, e concluo que: os custos de informação são significativamente maiores que os custos de menu; os dados claramente favorecem o modelo em que informações sobre condições agregadas são custosas enquanto que as idiossincráticas têm custo zero. No Capítulo 2 investigo as consequências de choques monetários e anúncios de desinflação usando os modelos previamente estimados. Mostro que o grau de não-neutralidade monetária é maior no modelo em que parte da informação é grátis. O Capítulo 3 é um artigo em conjunto com Carlos Carvalho (PUC-Rio) e Antonella Tutino (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). No artigo examinamos um modelo de fixação de preços em que firmas estão sujeitas a uma restrição de fluxo de informação do tipo Shannon. Calibramos o modelo e estudamos funções impulso-resposta a choques idiossincráticos e agregados. Mostramos que as firmas vão preferir processar informações agregadas e idiossincráticas conjuntamente ao invés de investigá-las separadamente. Este tipo de processamento gera ajustes de preços mais frequentes, diminuindo a persistência de efeitos reais causados por choques monetários.

Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s

This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

Rebound Effects from Increased Efficiency in the Use of Energy by UK Households

In this paper, we use CGE modelling techniques to identify the impact on energy use of an improvement in energy efficiency in the household sector. The main findings are that 1) when the price of energy is measured in natural units, the increase in efficiency yields only to a modification of tastes, changing as a result, the composition of household consumption; 2) when households internalize efficiency, the improvement in energy efficiency reduces the price of energy in efficiency units, providing a source of improved competitiveness as the nominal wage and the price level both fall; 3) the short-run rebound can be greater than the long run rebound if the household demand elasticity is the same for both time frames, however, the short run rebound is always lower than in the long-run if the demand for energy is relatively more elastic in the long-run; 4) the introduction of habit formation changes the composition of household consumption, modifying the magnitude of the household rebound only in the short-run. In this period, household and economy wide rebound are lowest for external habit formation and highest when consumers’ preferences are defined using a conventional utility function.

‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.