Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems for load forecasting : a comparative study

Accurate short term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision-making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. This paper proposes the application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2 FLSs) for the problem of STLF. IT2 FLSs, with additional degrees of freedom, are an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments conducted with real datasets show that IT2 FLS models precisely approximate future load demands with an acceptable accuracy. Furthermore, they demonstrate an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to feedforward neural networks and traditional type-1 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) FLSs.

Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation

Prediction intervals (PIs) are a promising tool for quantification of uncertainties associated with point forecasts of wind power. However, construction of PIs using parametric methods is questionable, as forecast errors do not follow a standard distribution. This paper proposes a nonparametric method for construction of reliable PIs for neural network (NN) forecasts. A lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is adapted for construction of PIs for wind power generation. A new framework is proposed for synthesizing PIs generated using an ensemble of NN models in the LUBE method. This is done to guard against NN performance instability in generating reliable and informative PIs. A validation set is applied for short listing NNs based on the quality of PIs. Then, PIs constructed using filtered NNs are aggregated to obtain combined PIs. Performance of the proposed method is examined using data sets taken from two wind farms in Australia. Simulation results indicate that the quality of combined PIs is significantly superior to the quality of PIs constructed using NN models ranked and filtered by the validation set.

Construction of neural network-based prediction intervals for short-term electrical load forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is of great importance for control and scheduling of electrical power systems. The uncertainty of power systems increases due to the random nature of climate and the penetration of the renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in datasets. To quantify these potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly proposed method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied to develop PIs using NN models. The primary multi-objective problem is firstly transformed into a constrained single-objective problem. This new problem formulation is closer to the original problem and has fewer parameters than the cost function. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Two case studies from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia) historical load datasets are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Demonstrated results show that the proposed method can construct high quality PIs for load forecasting applications.

An optimized mean variance estimation method for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasts

A statistical optimized technique for rapid development of reliable prediction intervals (PIs) is presented in this study. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) technique is employed here for quantification of uncertainties related with wind power predictions. In this method, two separate neural network models are used for estimation of wind power generation and its variance. A novel PI-based training algorithm is also presented to enhance the performance of the MVE method and improve the quality of PIs. For an in-depth analysis, comprehensive experiments are conducted with seasonal datasets taken from three geographically dispersed wind farms in Australia. Five confidence levels of PIs are between 50% and 90%. Obtained results show while both traditional and optimized PIs are hypothetically valid, the optimized PIs are much more informative than the traditional MVE PIs. The informativeness of these PIs paves the way for their application in trouble-free operation and smooth integration of wind farms into energy systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature enhanced effects of ozone on cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US communities, 1987-2000 - assessment using the NMMAPS data

A few studies examined interactive effects between air pollution and temperature on health outcomes. This study is to examine if temperature modified effects of ozone and cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US cities. A nonparametric and a parametric regression models were separately used to explore interactive effects of temperature and ozone on cardiovascular mortality during May and October, 1987-2000. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Both models illustrate that temperature enhanced the ozone effects on mortality in the northern region, but obviously in the southern region. A 10-ppb increment in ozone was associated with 0.41 % (95% posterior interval (PI): -0.19 %, 0.93 %), 0.27 % (95% PI: -0.44 %, 0.87 %) and 1.68 % (95% PI: 0.07 %, 3.26 %) increases in daily cardiovascular mortality corresponding to low, moderate and high levels of temperature, respectively. We concluded that temperature modified effects of ozone, particularly in the northern region.

Characterising metal build-up on urban road surfaces

Reliable approaches for predicting pollutant build-up are essential for accurate urban stormwater quality modelling. Based on the in-depth investigation of metal build-up on residential road surfaces, this paper presents empirical models for predicting metal loads on these surfaces. The study investigated metals commonly present in the urban environment. Analysis undertaken found that the build-up process for metals primarily originating from anthropogenic (copper and zinc) and geogenic (aluminium, calcium, iron and manganese) sources were different. Chromium and nickel were below detection limits. Lead was primarily associated with geogenic sources, but also exhibited a significant relationship with anthropogenic sources. The empirical prediction models developed were validated using an independent data set and found to have relative prediction errors of 12-50%, which is generally acceptable for complex systems such as urban road surfaces. Also, the predicted values were very close to the observed values and well within 95% prediction interval.

Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Parametrisation-free determination of the shape parameters for the pion electromagnetic form factor

Recent data from high-statistics experiments that have measured the modulus of the pion electromagnetic form factor from threshold to relatively high energies are used as input in a suitable mathematical framework of analytic continuation to find stringent constraints on the shape parameters of the form factor at t = 0. The method uses also as input a precise description of the phase of the form factor in the elastic region based on Fermi-Watson theorem and the analysis of the pi pi scattering amplitude with dispersive Roy equations, and some information on the spacelike region coming from recent high precision experiments. Our analysis confirms the inconsistencies of several data on the modulus, especially from low energies, with analyticity and the input phase, noted in our earlier work. Using the data on the modulus from energies above 0.65 GeV, we obtain, with no specific parametrisation, the prediction < r(pi)(2)> is an element of (0.42, 0.44) fm(2) for the charge radius. The same formalism leads also to very narrow allowed ranges for the higher-order shape parameters at t = 0, with a strong correlation among them.

Age and length composition of Columbia Basin chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon at Bonneville Dam in 2001

In 2001, representative samples of adult Columbia Basin chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), sockeye (O. nerka), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) populations at Bonneville Dam were collected. Fish were trapped, anesthetized, sampled for scales and biological data, revived, and then released adult migrating salmonids. Scales were examined to estimate age composition; the results contributed to an ongoing database for age class structure of Columbia Basin salmon populations. Based on scale analysis of chinook salmon, four-year-old fish (from brood year [BY] 1997) comprised 88% of the spring chinook, 67% of the summer chinook, and 42% of the Bright fall chinook salmon population. Five-year-old fish (BY 1996) comprised 9% of the spring chinook, 14% of the summer chinook, and 9% of the fall chinook salmon population. The sockeye salmon population at Bonneville was predominantly four-year-old fish (81%), with 18% returning as five-year-olds in 2001. The coho salmon population was 96% three-year-old fish (Age 1.1). Length analysis of the 2001 returns indicated that chinook salmon with a stream-type life history are larger (mean length) than the chinook salmon with an ocean-type life history. Trends in mean length over the sampling period for returning 2001 chinook salmon were analyzed. Chinook salmon of age classes 0.2 and 1.3 show a significant increase in mean length over time. Age classes 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.4 show no significant change over time. A year class regression over the past 12 years of data was used to predict spring, summer, and Bright fall chinook salmon population sizes for 2002. Based on three-year-old returns, the relationship predicts four-year-old returns of 132,600 (± 46,300, 90% predictive interval [PI]) spring chinook and 44,200 (± 11,700, 90% PI) summer chinook salmon for the 2002 runs. Based on four-year-old returns, the relationship predicts five-year-old returns of 87,800 (± 54,500, 90% PI) spring, 33,500 (± 11,500, 90% PI) summer, and 77,100 (± 25,800, 90% PI) Bright fall chinook salmon for the 2002 runs. The 2002 run size predictions should be used with caution; some of these predictions are well beyond the range of previously observed data.

Age and length composition of Columbia Basin chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon at Bonneville Dam in 2000

In 2000, representative samples of adult Columbia Basin chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), sockeye (O. nerka), and coho salmon (O. kisutch), populations were collected at Bonneville Dam. Fish were trapped, anesthetized, sampled for scales and biological data, allowed to revive, and then released. Scales were examined to estimate age composition and the results contribute to an ongoing database for age class structure of Columbia Basin salmon populations. Based on scale analysis, four-year-old fish (from brood year (BY) 1996) were estimated to comprise 83% of the spring chinook, 31% of the summer chinook, and 32% of the upriver bright fall chinook salmon population. Five-year-old fish (BY 1995) were estimated to comprise 2% of the spring chinook, 26% of the summer chinook, and 40% of the fall chinook salmon population. Three-year-old fish (BY 1997) were estimated to comprise 14% of the spring chinook, 42% of the summer chinook, and 17% of the fall chinook salmon population. Two-year-olds accounted for approximately 11% of the fall chinook population. The sockeye salmon population sampled at Bonneville was predominantly four-year-old fish (95%), and the coho salmon population was 99.9% three-year-old fish (Age 1.1). Length analysis of the 2000 returns indicated that chinook salmon with a stream-type life history are larger (mean length) than the chinook salmon with an ocean-type life history. Trends in mean length over the sampling period were also analysis for returning 2000 chinook salmon. Fish of age classes 0.2, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 have a significant increase in mean length over time. Age classes 0.3 and 0.4 have no significant change over time and age 0.1 chinook salmon had a significant decrease in mean length over time. A year class regression over the past 11 years of data was used to predict spring and summer chinook salmon population sizes for 2001. Based on three-year-old returns, the relationship predicts four-year-old returns of 325,000 (± 111,600, 90% Predictive Interval [PI]) spring chinook and 27,800 (± 29,750, 90% PI) summer chinook salmon. Based on four-year-old returns, the relationship predicts five-year-old returns of 54,300 (± 40,600, 90% PI) spring chinook and 11,000 (± 3,250, 90% PI) summer chinook salmon. The 2001 run size predictions used in this report should be used with caution, these predictions are well beyond the range of previously observed data.

Age and length composition of Columbia Basin chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon at Bonneville Dam in 2002

In 2002, representative samples of migrating Columbia Basin chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), sockeye (O. nerka), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) adult populations were collected at Bonneville Dam. Fish were trapped, anesthetized, sampled for scales and biological data, revived, and then released. Scales were examined to estimate age composition; the results contributed to an ongoing database for age class structure of Columbia Basin salmon populations. Based on scale analysis of chinook salmon, four-year-old fish (from brood year [BY] 1998) comprised 86% of the spring chinook, 51% of the summer chinook, and 51% of the bright fall chinook salmon population. Five-year-old fish (BY 1997) comprised 13% of the spring chinook, 43% of the summer chinook, and 11% of the bright fall chinook salmon population. The sockeye salmon population at Bonneville was predominantly five-year-old fish (55%), with 40% returning as four-year-olds in 2002. For the coho salmon population, 88% of the population was three-year-old fish of age class 1.1, while 12% were age class 1.0. Length analysis of the 2002 returns indicated that chinook salmon with a stream-type life history are larger (mean length) at age than the chinook salmon with an ocean-type life history. Trends in mean length over the sampling period for returning 2002 chinook salmon were analyzed. Chinook salmon of age classes 1.2 and 1.3 show a significant increase in mean length over the duration of the migration. A year class regression over the past 14 years of data was used to predict spring, summer, and bright fall chinook salmon population sizes for 2003. Based on three-year-old returns, the relationship predicts four-year-old returns of 54,200 (± 66,600, 90% predictive interval [PI]) spring chinook, 23,800 (± 19,100, 90% PI) summer, and 169,100 (± 139,500, 90% PI) bright fall chinook salmon for the 2003 runs. Based on four-year-old returns, the relationship predicts five-year-old returns of 36,300 (± 35,400, 90% PI) spring, 63,800 (± 10,300, 90% PI) summer, and 91,100 (± 69,400, 90% PI) bright fall chinook salmon for the 2003 runs. The 2003 run size predictions should be used with caution; some of these predictions are well beyond the range of previously observed data.

Phase reconstruction from three interferograms based on integral of phase gradient

A novel algorithm of phase reconstruction based on the integral of phase gradient is presented. The algorithm directly derives two real-valued partial derivatives from three phase-shifted interferograms. Through integrating the phase derivatives, the desired phase is reconstructed. During the phase reconstruction process, there is no need for an extra rewrapping manipulation to ensure values of the phase derivatives lie in the interval [-pi, pi] as before, thus this algorithm can prevent error or distortion brought about by the phase unwrapping operation. Additionally, this algorithm is fast and easy to implement, and insensitive to the nonuniformity of the intensity distribution of the interferogram. The feasibility of the algorithm is demonstrated by both computer simulation and experiment.

Planeamento de curto prazo de sistemas de energia solar usando técnicas de otimização robusta

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica

Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.