An Analysis of the Electoral Use of Policy on Law and Order by New Labour

There has been much debate regarding the electoral strategy adopted by New Labour in the lead-up to and then during their time in government. This paper addresses the issue from the perspective of left/right and libertarian/authoritarian considerations by examining data on individual attitudes from the British Social Attitudes survey between 1986 and 2009. The analysis indicates that New Labour’s move towards the right on economic and public policy was the main driver towards attracting new centrist voters and could thus be labelled ‘broadly’ populist. The move towards a tougher stance on law and order was more ‘narrowly’ populist in that it was used more to minimise the reduction in support from Labour’s traditional base on the left than to attract new votes.

The Electoral Determinants of Collective Remittances: The Mexican 3x1 Program for Migrants

The 3x1 Program for Migrants is a matching grant scheme that seeks to direct the money sent by migrant organizations abroad to the provision of public and social infrastructure, and to productive projects in migrants’ communities of origin. To do so, the municipal, state, and federal administrations match the amount sent by hometown associations by 3 to 1. This opens the door to the political manipulation of the program. We explore the impact of a particular facet of Mexican political life on the operation of the 3x1: its recent democratization and the increasing political competition at the municipal level. Relying on the literature on redistributive politics, we posit that an increasing number of effective parties in elections may have two different effects. On the one hand, the need to cater to more heterogeneous constituencies may increase the provision of public projects. On the other hand, since smaller coalitions are needed to win elections under tighter competition, fewer public and more private (clientelistic) projects could be awarded. Using a unique dataset on the 3x1 Program for Migrants for over 2,400 municipalities in the period 2002 through 2007, we find a lower provision of public goods in electorally competitive jurisdictions. Thus, we remain sceptical about the program success in promoting public goods in politically competitive locations with high migration levels.

Modelos de viento aplicados a la mejora en la predicción de incendios forestales

La predicción de incendios forestales es uno de los grandes retos de la comunidad científica debido al impacto medioambiental, humano y económico que tienen en la sociedad. El comportamiento de este fenómeno es difícil de modelar debido a la gran cantidad de variables que intervienen y la dificultad que implica su correcta medición. Los simuladores de fuego son herramientas muy útiles pero, actualmente, los resultados que obtenemos tienen un alto grado de imprecisión. Desde nuestro grupo se ha trabajado en la predicción en dos etapas, donde antes de realizar cualquier predicción, se incorpora una etapa de ajuste de los parámetros de entrada para obtener mejores predicciones. Pese a la mejora que supone este nuevo paradigma de predicción, las simulaciones sobre incendios reales tienen un alto grado de error por el efecto de las condiciones meteorológicas que, usualmente, varían de manera notable durante el transcurso de la simulación. Uno de los factores más determinantes en el comportamiento de un incendio, junto con las características del terreno, es el viento. Los modelos de predicción son extremadamente sensibles al cambio en los componentes de dirección y velocidad del viento por lo que cualquier mejora que podamos introducir para mejorar la calidad de estas componentes influye directamente en la calidad de la predicción. Nuestro sistema de predicción utiliza la dirección y velocidad del viento de forma global en todo el terreno, y lo que proponemos con este trabajo es introducir un modelo de vientos que nos permita generar vientos locales en todas las celdas en las que se divide el terreno. Este viento local dependerá del viento general y de las características del terreno de dichas celdas. Consideramos que la utilización de un viento general no es suficiente para realizar una buena predicción del comportamiento de un incendio y hemos comprobado que la inclusión de un simulador de campo de vientos en nuestro sistema puede llegar a mejorar nuestras predicciones considerablemente. Los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos sintéticos que hemos realizado nos hacen ser optimistas, puesto que consideramos que la inclusión de componentes de viento locales permitirá mejorar nuestras predicciones en incendios reales.

El largo ciclo electoral de Plataforma per Catalunya: del ámbito local a la implantación nacional (2003-2011)

El partido anti-inmigración Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC) ha experimentado un progresivo crecimiento en la franja temporal que va desde su primera participación electoral en 2003 hasta las municipales de 2011. En dicho periodo temporal ha pasado de ser una formación presente exclusivamente en el ámbito local, y con un apoyo fuertemente concentrado en ciertos municipios de Cataluña, a recibir votos y tener secciones locales consolidadas en gran parte del territorio catalán. El texto trata de ofrecer claves interpretativas para entender tanto los éxitos como las debilidades de PxC a lo largo del ciclo electoral 2003-2011. Partiendo de la base de que actualmente existe en España una demanda electoral suficiente para el éxito de una formación como PxC, este trabajo se centra en el análisis de la estrategia política y electoral desarrollada por el partido para aprovechar dicha demanda, y en su interacción con el contexto social y político de la Cataluña de la primera década del siglo XXI.

RACE (Rapid Arterial oCclusion Evaluation): Diseño y validación prehospitalaria de una escala neurológica para la predicción de una oclusión arterial proximal en los pacientes con un ictus isquémico agudo de la circulación cerebral anterior

La Rapid Arterial oCclusion Evaluation és una escala neurològica prehospitalària que prediu la presència d’una oclusió arterial proximal (OAP) en els pacients amb un ictus isquèmic agut de la circulació cerebral anterior (IIACCA). Fou dissenyada valorant retrospectivament a 654 pacients amb un IIACCA, seleccionant la combinació dels ítems de la National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale que mostraven una major associació amb la presència d’una OAP: parèsia facial, parèsia braquial, parèsia crural, desviació oculocefàlica y agnòsia/afàsia. Fou validada valorant prospectivament a 93 activacions del Codi Ictus, mostrant una sensibilitat del 88% y una especificitat del 65% per una puntuació ≥ 4.

Evaluación y predicción del riesgo de reincidencia en agresores sexuales

Puesto que es muy importante la predicción del riesgo de reincidencia en agresores sexuales, la investigación que aquí se presenta tiene como objetivo la aplicación de uno de los instrumentos más novedosos para la predicción del riesgo de agresión sexual, el Sexual Violence Risc – 20 (SVR-20) desarrollado por un equipo de investigadores canadienses, de manera retrospectiva, a una muestra de agresores sexuales para evaluar la capacidad predictiva de este instrumento y así, poder anticipar la posible reincidencia de los sujetos

Predicción de violencia contra las mujeres. Adaptación de la SARA (Evaluación del riesgo de violencia de pareja)

La SARA es un buen instrumento para la predicción de violencia contra la pareja, convirtiéndose en la mejor estrategia profesional para reducir el impacto de la violencia antes que esta suceda, tal y como han indicado los resultados de esta investigación.

Utilidad de los cultivos de vigilancia para la predicción de etiología de la neumonía asociada a la ventilación mecánica. Aplicación en una UCI endémica para A. baumannii multirresistente

Comprovar la utilitat dels cultius de vigilància per a la identificació per fenotip dels microorganismes ulteriorment responsables de la NAVM i també per a la identificació per fenotip de l'Acinetobacter baumannii productor de NAVM, per al que es va realitzar BAS 2 vegades/setmana a malalts intubats ≥ 48h. Es van valorar 273 pacients ventilats mecànicament ≥ 48h, dels quals 47 van desenvolupar NAVM. La concordança entre els cultius de vigilància i la etiología de la NAVM va ser del 87’2%, similar al percentatge de tractaments apropiats si s'haguessin utilitzat només els mateixos. La concordança augmenta fins al 100% en el cas de l´Acinetobacter baumannii.

Do voting advice applications have an effect on electoral participation and voter turnout ? : Evidence from the 2007 Swiss Federal Elections

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) render a valuable platform for tackling one of democracy's central challenges: low voter turnout. Studies indicate that lack of information and cost-benefit considerations cause voters to abstain from voting. VAAs are online voting assistance tools which match own political preferences with those of candidates and parties in elections. By assisting voters in their decision-making process prior to casting their votes, VAAs not only rebut rational choice reasoning against voting but also narrow existing information gaps. In this paper we examine the impact of VAAs on participation and voter turnout. Specifically, we present results on how the Swiss VAA smartvote affected voter turnout in the 2007 federal elections. Our analyses suggest that smartvote does have a mobilizing capacity, especially among young voters who are usually underrepresented at polls. Moreover, the study demonstrates how VAAs such as smartvote do affect citizen's propensity to deal with politics in general.

What explains electoral turnout in Swiss municipalities?

What explains the higher electoral turnout in some of the Swiss municipalities? Since there are important differences as far as size, socio-economic structure, importance, political systems and the prevailing political culture are concerned, the Swiss municipalities offer a laboratory-like field of research. Using aggregate level data from our own surveys and from official sources covering the whole country this paper investigates the determinants of voting turnout at the local level. It comes to the following conclusion: The level of electoral turnout in Swiss municipalities depends to an important extent on institutional variables. If the executive is elected in a citizens' assembly there are considerably fewer people participating than in elections at the polls. PR also has a positive effect on turnout, whereas it cannot be shown that having a local parliament leads to higher turnout (and thus to increased interest in politics). Another important variable is the size of a municipality. In smaller municipalities turnout is consistently higher than in bigger ones. As for the importance of Catholicism for turnout, our study confirms the findings of Freitag (2005) at the cantonal level. The Catholic milieu has a positive impact on participation

The Impact of the Electoral System on Political Campaigning : Are Candidates for the Council of States More Moderate than their Fellow Candidates for the National Council ?

It is commonly believed that majority voting enhances parties to cluster around the centre of the political space, whereas proportional systems (PR) foster great ideological divergence. The theoretical arguments for these expectations go back to the work of Downs (1957) and Duverger (1954). More recent studies, however, produced quite contradictory empirical findings. In this paper I will test whether similar arguments hold true for the positioning of candidates campaigning in different electoral systems. The elections for the two chambers of the Swiss Parliament and the data from the Swiss Electoral Studies (SELECTS) and the Swiss Voting Advice Application (VAA) smartvote offer an excellent - almost laboratory like - opportunity to do so empirically. The analyses show clearly, the theoretical claims that majority voting necessarily fosters more moderate positions find no support. The candidates for the Council of States, elected in a majority system, are not more moderate than their fellow party candidates for the National Council which are elected in a PR system.

An Inquiry into the use of illegal electoral practices and effects of political violence

This article investigates whether vote-buying and the instigation of violence in the disputed 2007 Kenyan elections were strategically motivated, and whether those affected by electoral violence changed their views towards ethno-politics and the use of violence. To answer these questions, a panel survey conducted before and after the elections is combined with external indicators of electoral violence. We find that political parties targeted vote-buying towards specific groups to weaken the support of their political rivals and to mobilize their own supporters. Furthermore, parties instigated violence strategically in areas where they were less likely to win. Although the victims of violence would prefer that parties are no longer allowed to organize in ethnic or religious lines, they are more likely to identify in ethnic terms, support the use of violence and avoid relying on the police to resolve disputes. The overall findings suggest an increased risk of electoral-violence reoccurring.

Electoral competition through issue selection

Politics must tackle multiple issues at once. In a first-best world, political competition constrains parties to prioritize issues according to the voters' true concerns. In the real world, the opposite also happens: parties manipulate voter priorities by emphasizing issues selectively during the political campaign. This phenomenon, known as priming, should allow parties to pay less attention to the issues that they intend to mute. We develop a model of endogenous issue ownership in which two vote-seeking parties (i) invest to attract voters with "better" policy proposals and (ii) choose a communication campaign to focus voter attention on specific issues. We identify novel feedbacks between communication and investment. In particular, we find that stronger priming effects can backfire by constraining parties to invest more resources in all issues, including the ones they would otherwise intend to mute. We also identify under which conditions parties prefer to focus on their "historical issues" or to engage in issue stealing. Typically, the latter happens when priming effects are strong, and historical reputations differentiates parties less.