Precipitation in small systems-I. stochastic analysis

Precipitation in small droplets involving emulsions, microemulsions or vesicles is important for Producing multicomponent ceramics and nanoparticles. Because of the random nature of nucleation and the small number of particles in a droplet, the use of a deterministic population balance equation for predicting the number density of particles may lead to erroneous results even for evaluating the mean behavior of such systems. A comparison between the predictions made through stochastic simulation and deterministic population balance involving small droplets has been made for two simple systems, one involving crystallization and the other a single-component precipitation. The two approaches have been found to yield quite different results under a variety of conditions. Contrary to expectation, the smallness of the population alone does not cause these deviations. Thus, if fluctuation in supersaturation is negligible, the population balance and simulation predictions concur. However, for large fluctuations in supersaturation, the predictions differ significantly, indicating the need to take the stochastic nature of the phenomenon into account. This paper describes the stochastic treatment of populations, which involves a sequence of so-called product density equations and forms an appropriate framework for handling small systems.

Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO2 forcing?

Recently, it was found that a reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a temporary increase in global precipitation. We use the Hadley Center coupled atmosphere-ocean model, HadCM3L, to demonstrate that this precipitation increase is a consequence of precipitation sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations through fast tropospheric adjustment processes. Slow ocean cooling explains the longer-term decrease in precipitation. Increased CO2 tends to suppress evaporation/precipitation whereas increased temperatures tend to increase evaporation/precipitation. When the enhanced CO2 forcing is removed, global precipitation increases temporarily, but this increase is not observed when a similar negative radiative forcing is applied as a reduction of solar intensity. Therefore, transient precipitation increase following a reduction in CO2-radiative forcing is a consequence of the specific character of CO2 forcing and is not a general feature associated with decreases in radiative forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, and K. Caldeira (2011), Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO2 forcing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06703, doi:10.1029/2011GL046713.

Some Basic Aspects of Reaction Engineering of Precipitation Processes

Analysis of precipitation reactions is extremely important in the technology of production of fine particles from the liquid phase. The control of composition and particle size in precipitation processes requires careful analysis of the several reactions that comprise the precipitation system. Since precipitation systems involve several, rapid ionic dissociation reactions among other slower ones, the faster reactions may be assumed to be nearly at equilibrium. However, the elimination of species, and the consequent reduction of the system of equations, is an aspect of analysis fraught with the possibility of subtle errors related to the violation of conservation principles. This paper shows how such errors may be avoided systematically by relying on the methods of linear algebra. Applications are demonstrated by analyzing the reactions leading to the precipitation of calcium carbonate in a stirred tank reactor as well as in a single emulsion drop. Sample calculations show that supersaturation dynamics can assume forms that can lead to subsequent dissolution of particles that have once been precipitated.

Modeling of precipitation in reverse micellar systems

A model of the precipitation process in reverse micelles has been developed to calculate the size of fine particles obtained therein. While the method shares several features of particle nucleation and growth common to precipitation in large systems, complexities arise in describing the processes of nucleation, due to the extremely small size of a micelle and of particle growth caused by fusion among the micelles. Occupancy of micelles by solubilized molecules is governed by Poisson statistics, implying most of them are empty and cannot nucleate of its own. The model therefore specifies the minimum number of solubilized molecules required to form a nucleus which is used to calculate the homogeneous nucleation rate. Simultaneously, interaction between micelles is assumed to occur by Brownian collision and instantaneous fusion. Analysis of time scales of various events shows growth of particles to be very fast compared to other phenomena occurring. This implies that nonempty micelles either are supersaturated or contain a single precipitated particle and allows application of deterministic population balance equations to describe the evolution of the system with time. The model successfully predicts the experimental measurements of Kandori ct al.(3) on the size of precipitated CaCO3 particles, obtained by carbonation of reverse micelles containing aqueous Ca(OH)(2) solution.

Regionalization of precipitation in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables - A fuzzy clustering approach

Delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions (regionalization) is necessary for investigating frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological droughts. The conventional methods of regionalization use statistics of precipitation as attributes to establish homogeneous regions. Therefore they cannot be used to form regions in ungauged areas, and they may not be useful to form meaningful regions in areas having sparse rain gauge density. Further, validation of the regions for homogeneity in precipitation is not possible, since the use of the precipitation statistics to form regions and subsequently to test the regional homogeneity is not appropriate. To alleviate this problem, an approach based on fuzzy cluster analysis is presented. It allows delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables (LSAV), which influence precipitation in the study area, as attributes. The LSAV, location parameters (latitude, longitude and altitude) and seasonality of precipitation are suggested as features for regionalization. The approach allows independent validation of the identified regions for homogeneity using statistics computed from the observed precipitation. Further it has the ability to form regions even in ungauged areas, owing to the use of attributes that can be reliably estimated even when no at-site precipitation data are available. The approach was applied to delineate homogeneous annual rainfall regions in India, and its effectiveness is illustrated by comparing the results with those obtained using rainfall statistics, regionalization based on hard cluster analysis, and meteorological sub-divisions in India. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of three methods for downscaling daily precipitation in the Punjab region

Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. This article compares the performances of three downscaling methods, viz. conditional random field (CRF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) methods in downscaling precipitation in the Punjab region of India, belonging to the monsoon regime. The CRF model is a recently developed method for downscaling hydrological variables in a probabilistic framework, while the SVM model is a popular machine learning tool useful in terms of its ability to generalize and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and predictand. The KNN model is an analogue-type method that queries days similar to a given feature vector from the training data and classifies future days by random sampling from a weighted set of K closest training examples. The models are applied for downscaling monsoon (June to September) daily precipitation at six locations in Punjab. Model performances with respect to reproduction of various statistics such as dry and wet spell length distributions, daily rainfall distribution, and intersite correlations are examined. It is found that the CRF and KNN models perform slightly better than the SVM model in reproducing most daily rainfall statistics. These models are then used to project future precipitation at the six locations. Output from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM3) GCM for three scenarios, viz. A1B, A2, and B1 is used for projection of future precipitation. The projections show a change in probability density functions of daily rainfall amount and changes in the wet and dry spell distributions of daily precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.