The role of U.S. timberland in real estate portfolios

Timberland is seen as a long-term investment which has recently received increased institutional investor attention in many countries and potentially provides added value in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) timberland series, this paper analyses the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of timberland in the United States over the period of 1987-2007. U.S. timberland is seen to have been a strongly performed asset class with significant portfolio diversification benefits over this period; with a significant portfolio role separate to that of real estate. However, recent years have seen reduced risk-adjusted returns, with some loss of portfolio diversification benefits of timberland with stocks and real estate. Global drivers are likely to see increased future demand for timberland investment.

Design of a model-generated repository as a service for USDL

SAP and its research partners have been developing a lan- guage for describing details of Services from various view- points called the Unified Service Description Language (USDL). At the time of writing, version 3.0 describes technical implementation aspects of services, as well as stakeholders, pricing, lifecycle, and availability. Work is also underway to address other business and legal aspects of services. This language is designed to be used in service portfolio management, with a repository of service descriptions being available to various stakeholders in an organisation to allow for service prioritisation, development, deployment and lifecycle management. The structure of the USDL metadata is specified using an object-oriented metamodel that conforms to UML, MOF and EMF Ecore. As such it is amenable to code gener-ation for implementations of repositories that store service description instances. Although Web services toolkits can be used to make these programming language objects available as a set of Web services, the practicalities of writing dis- tributed clients against over one hundred class definitions, containing several hundred attributes, will make for very large WSDL interfaces and highly inefficient “chatty” implementations. This paper gives the high-level design for a completely model-generated repository for any version of USDL (or any other data-only metamodel), which uses the Eclipse Modelling Framework’s Java code generation, along with several open source plugins to create a robust, transactional repository running in a Java application with a relational datastore. However, the repository exposes a generated WSDL interface at a coarse granularity, suitable for distributed client code and user-interface creation. It uses heuristics to drive code generation to bridge between the Web service and EMF granularities.

Developing a framework for Six Sigma in financial service institutions : empirical evidence from expert interviews

Six Sigma is considered to be an important management philosophy to obtain satisfied customers. But financial service organisations have been slow to adopt Six Sigma issues so far. Despite the extensive effort that has been invested and benefits that can be obtained, the systematic implementation of Six Sigma in financial service organisations is limited. As a company wide implementation framework is missing so far, this paper tries to fill this gap. Based on theory, a conceptual framework is developed and evaluated by experts from financial institutions. The results show that it is very important to link Six Sigma with the strategic as well as the operations level. Furthermore, although Six Sigma is a very important method for improving quality of processes others such as Lean Management are also used This requires a superior project portfolio management to coordinate resources and projects of Six Sigma with the other methods used. Beside the theoretical contribution, the framework can be used by financial service companies to evaluate their Six Sigma activities. Thus, the framework grounded through literature and empirical data will be a useful guide for sustainable and successful implementation of a Six Sigma initiative in financial service organisations.

Some reflections about P2M : the place of the mirror

The purpose of this paper is to provide some insights about P2M, and more specifically, to develop some thoughts about Project Management seen as a Mirror, a place for reflection…, between the Mission of organisation and its actual creation of Values (with s: a source of value for people, organisations and society). This place is the realm of complexity, of interactions between multiple variables, each of them having a specific time horizon and occupying a specific place, playing a specific role. Before developing this paper I would like to borrow to my colleague and friend, Professor Ohara, the following, part of a paper going to be presented at IPMA World Congress, in New Delhi later this year in November 2005. “P2M is the Japanese version of project & program management, which is the first standard guide for education and certification developed in 2001. A specific finding of P2M is characterized by “mission driven management of projects” or a program which harness complexity of problem solving observed in the interface between technical system and business model.” (Ohara, 2005, IPMA Conference, New Delhi) “The term of “mission” is a key word in the field of corporate strategy, where it expresses raison d’être or “value of business”. It is more specifically used for expressing “the client needs” in terms of a strategic business unit. The concept of mission is deemed to be a useful tool to share essential content of value and needs in message for complex project.” (Ohara, 2005, IPMA Conference, New Delhi) “Mission is considered as a significant “metamodel representation” by several reasons. First, it represents multiple values for aspiration. The central objective of mission initiative is profiling of ideality in the future from reality, which all stakeholders are glad to accept and share. Second, it shall be within a stretch of efforts, and not beyond or outside of the realization. Though it looks like unique, it has to depict a solid foundation. The pragmatic sense of equilibrium between innovation and adaptation is required for the mission. Third, it shall imply a rough sketch for solution to critical issues for problems in reality.” (Ohara, 2005, IPMA Conference, New Delhi) “Project modeling” idea has been introduced in P2M program management. A package of three project models of “scheme”, “system” and “service” are given as a reference type program. (Ohara, 2005, IPMA Conference, New Delhi) If these quotes apply to P2M, they are fully congruent with the results of the research undertaken and the resulting meta-model & meta-method developed by the CIMAP, ESC Lille Research Centre in Project & Program Management, since the 80’s. The paper starts by questioning the common Project Management (PM) paradigm. Then discussing the concept of Project, it argues that an alternative epistemological position should be taken to capture Page 2 / 11 the very nature of the PM field. Based on this, a development about “the need of modelling to understand” is proposed grounded on two theoretical roots. This leads to the conclusion that, in order to enables this modelling, a standard approach is necessary, but should be understood under the perspective of the Theory of Convention in order to facilitate a situational and contextual application.

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

From the editor

In this issue of Project Management Journal, the reader will explore different perspectives, exemplifying the dynamic and creativity at stake within the project, program, and portfolio management field. These papers provide good illustrations of the various schools of project management research I introduced in the From the Editor letters between June 2007 and September 2008...

The case for good reviewing

After some years of remarkable growth, the scholarly field of Project Management (PM) research currently finds itself in a crucial stage of development. In this editorial, we make an analysis of submissions to PM's premier specialty journal, the International Journal of Project Management over the period 2007–2010, and argue that one of the most important ways in which PM research can further evolve is to pay more attention to the mundane, yet important, act of good reviewing — an activity that we believe has received relatively little attention in the PM community thus far. Let us begin by considering the crucial juncture that, as a scholarly discipline, PM is currently at. On the one hand, the PM research field is characterized by signs of major progress. For one, there has been a strong growth in terms of published output: recent years have seen the publication of three major edited volumes with a central focus on PM, published by top-tier publishers (Cattani et al., 2011, Kenis et al., 2009 and Morris et al., 2011); the PM/temporary organizations literature published in ISI ranked peer-reviewed articles is growing exponentially (Bakker, 2010); and besides some of the long-standing PM specialty journals, the field has recently seen the rise of a number of new journals, including the International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, the International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, and the Journal of Project, Program, and Portfolio Management.

Dynamic lifecycle strategies for target date retirement funds

Target date retirement funds have gained favor with retirement plan investors in recent years. Typically, these funds initially have a high allocation to stocks but move towards less volatile assets, such as bonds and cash, as the target retirement date approaches. Empirical research has generally found that a switch to low-risk assets prior to retirement can reduce the risk of confronting the most extreme negative outcomes. This article questions the rationale for lifecycle switching based solely on age or target retirement date as is the prevalent practice among target date funds. The authors argue that a dynamic switching strategy, which takes into consideration achieved investment returns, will produce superior returns for most investors compared to conventional lifecycle switching. In this article, the authors put forward a dynamic lifecycle switching strategy that is conditional on the attainment of the plan member's wealth accumulation objective at every stage of switching.

Work motivation as a determinant of organisational and professional commitment in temporary organisations : theoretical lenses and propositions

The purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical framework to investigate the relationship between work motivation, organisational commitment and professional commitment in temporary organisations. Through a review of theory, we contend that work motivation has two major patterns — internal motivation (which includes intrinsic, need-based and self-deterministic theories), and external motivation (which includes cognitive or process-based theories of motivation) through which it has been investigated. We also hold the nature of employee commitment to be of three types — affective, continuance and normative. This commitment may be towards either the organisation or the profession. A literature review revealed that the characteristics of the temporary organisation — specifically tenure and task — regulate the relationship between work motivation, organisational commitment and professional commitment. Testable propositions are presented.

Principles of investments

"Emphasises asset allocation while presenting the practical applications of investment theory. The authors concentrate on the intuition and insights that will be useful to students throughout their careers as new ideas and challenges emerge from the financial marketplace. It provides a good foundation to understand the basic types of securities and financial markets as well as how trading in those markets is conducted. The Portfolio Management section is discussed towards the end of the course and supported by a web-based portfolio simulation with a hypothetical $100,000 brokerage account to buy and sell stocks and mutual funds. Students get a chance to use real data found in the Wall Street Survivor simulation in conjunction with the chapters on investments. This site is powered by StockTrak, the leading provider of investment simulation services to the academic community. Principles of Investments includes increased attention to changes in market structure and trading technology. The theory is supported by a wide range of exercises, worksheets and problems."--publisher website Contents: Investments: background and issues -- Asset classes and financial markets -- Securities markets -- Managed funds and investment management -- Risk and return: past and prologue -- Efficient diversification -- Capital asset pricing and arbitrage pricing theory -- The efficient market hypothesis -- Bond prices and yields -- Managing bond portfolios -- Equity valuation -- Macroeconomic and industry analysis -- Financial statement analysis -- Investors and the investment process -- Hedge funds -- Portfolio performance evaluation.

El modelo de Markowitz en la gestión de carteras

[ES] Desde su aparición, el modelo de Markowitz ha sido un referente teórico fundamental en la selección de carteras de valores, dando lugar a múltiples desarrollos y derivaciones. Sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica entre gestores de carteras y analistas de inversiones no ha sido tan amplia como podría esperarse de su éxito teórico. Con este trabajo pretendemos demostrar que el modelo de Markowitz puede ser de gran utilidad en la práctica. A través de un estudio empírico queremos verificar si el modelo de Markowitz es capaz de proporcionar carteras que nos ofrezcan una mayor rentabilidad y un menor riesgo que la cartera representada por los índices IBEX-35 e IGBM. Así mismo, pretendemos comprobar la supuesta eficiencia de estos índices como representantes de la cartera de mercado teórica.

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

Does the Fed Model travel well?

ap Gwilym, Owain, et al., 'Does the Fed Model travel well?', Journal of Portfolio Management (2006) 33(1) pp.68-75 RAE2008

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.