An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Grenada

Changing precipitation patterns and temperature relate directly to water resources and water security. This report presents the findings of an assessment of the water sector in Grenada with respect to the projected impact of climate change. Grenada‘s water resources comprise primarily surface water, with an estimated groundwater potential to satisfy about 10%-15% of the present potable requirement. On the smaller islands Carriacou and Petite Martinique, domestic water is derived exclusively from rainwater catchments. Rainfall seasonality is marked and the available surface water during the dry season declines dramatically. Changing land use patterns, increase in population, expansion in tourism and future implementation of proposed irrigation schemes are projected to increase future water requirements. Economic modeling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios as illustrated. The results suggest that water supply will exceed forecasted water demand under B2 and BAU during all four decades. However under the A2 scenario, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025. It is important to note that the model has been constrained by the omission of several key parameters, and time series for climate indicators, data for which are unavailable. Some of these include time series for discharge data, rainfall-runoff data, groundwater recharge rates, and evapotranspiration. Further, the findings which seem to indicate adequacy of water are also masked by seasonality in a given year, variation from year to year, and spatial variation within the nation state. It is imperative that some emphasis be placed on data generation in order to better project for the management of Grenada‘s water security. This analysis indicates the need for additional water catchment, storage and distribution infrastructure, as well as institutional strengthening, in order to meet the future needs of the Grenadian population. Strategic priorities should be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Grenada has embarked on several initiatives that can be considered strategies toward adaptation to the variabilities associated with climate change. The Government should ensure that these programs be carried out to the optimal levels for reasons described above. The ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that measures will be beneficial with or without climate change should be adopted. A study on the Costs of Inaction for the Caribbean in the face of climate change listed Grenada among the countries which would experience significant impacts on GDP between now and 2100 without adaptation interventions. Investment in the water sector is germane to building Grenada‘s capacity to cope with the multivariate impact of changes in the parameters of climate.

Análise da variabilidade genética e estudo populacional de Antilophia bokermanni (Aves: Pipridae) com implicações para sua conservação

O Soldadinho-do-araripe – Antilophia bokermanni (Passeriformes, Pipridae) é atualmente o membro mais ameaçado de extinção de sua família, sendo classificado como “criticamente em perigo”. Com uma população estimada em somente 800 indivíduos, está espécie é endêmica de uma pequena área (aproximadamente 30 km²) de floresta úmida de encosta da Chapada do Araripe no nordeste do Brasil. A urgente necessidade de implementação de um programa de conservação efetivo para o Soldadinho-do-araripe tem estimulado muitas pesquisas com diversos aspectos de sua biologia. No presente estudo, nós examinamos variações nas seqüências de segmentos do mtDNA e ncDNA em representantes de A. bokermanni e A. galeata. As análises mostraram nenhuma evidência para subestruturamento populacional e também de história de expansão populacional para A. bokermanni. Sua variabilidade genética é ligeiramente menor quando comparada com a sua espécie-irmã, mas suas similaridades indicam um recente processo de separação, indicado pela retenção de polimorfismo ancestral (separação incompleta de linhagens) em todos os marcadores. Nós também não encontramos nenhuma associação entre variação de plumagem e variações nucleotídicas do gene MC1R no gênero Antilophia. Este estudo representa uma contribuição da genética para o Plano de Conservação do Soldadinho-do-araripe (Antilophia bokermanni).

Genetic history of hepatitis C virus in Pakistan

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3a accounts for similar to 80% of HCV infections in Pakistan, where similar to 10 million people are HCV-infected. Here, we report analysis of the genetic heterogeneity of HCV NS3 and NS5b subgenomic regions from genotype 3a variants obtained from Pakistan. Phylogenetic analyses showed that Pakistani genotype 3a variants were as genetically diverse as global variants, with extensive intermixing. Bayesian estimates showed that the most recent ancestor for genotype 3a in Pakistan was last extant in similar to 1896-1914 C.E. (range: 1851-1932). This genotype experienced a population expansion starting from similar to 1905 to similar to 1970 after which the effective population leveled. Death/birth models suggest that HCV 3a has reached saturating diversity with decreasing turnover rate and positive extinction. Taken together, these observations are consistent with a long and complex history of HCV 3a infection in Pakistan. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Análises genético-populacionais em arara-azul-grande (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) baseadas em marcadores mitocondriais: contribuições à conservação biológica da espécie

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Consequences of Early Late-Pleistocene Megadroughts in Tropical Africa

Extremely arid conditions in tropical Africa occurred in several discrete episodes between 135 and 90 ka, as demonstrated by lake core and seismic records from multiple basins [Scholz CA, Johnson TC, Cohen AS, King JW, Peck J, Overpeck JT, Talbot MR, Brown ET, Kalindekafe L,Amoako PYO, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad SciUSA104:16416–16421]. This resulted in extraordinarily low lake levels, even in Africa’s deepest lakes.On the basis of well dated paleoecological records from Lake Malawi, which reflect both local and regional conditions, we show that this aridity had severe consequences for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. During the most arid phase, there was extremely low pollen production and limited charred-particle deposition, indicating insufficient vegetation to maintain substantial fires, and the Lake Malawi watershed experienced cool, semidesert conditions (<400 mm>/yr precipitation). Fossil and sedimentological data show that Lake Malawi itself, currently 706mdeep, was reduced to an ~125 m deep saline, alkaline, well mixed lake. This episode of aridity was far more extreme than any experienced in the Afrotropics during the Last Glacial Maximum (~35–15 ka). Aridity diminished after 95 ka, lake levels rose erratically, and salinity/alkalinity declined, reaching near-modern conditions after 60 ka. This record of lake levels and changing limnological conditions provides a framework for interpreting the evolution of the Lake Malawi fish and invertebrate species flocks. Moreover, this record, coupled with other regional records of early Late Pleistocene aridity, places new constraints on models of Afrotropical biogeographic refugia and early modern human population expansion into and out of tropical Africa.

The genetic signature of Neolithic in Greece

The Neolithic is characterized by the transition from a subsistence economy, based on hunting and gathering, to one based on food producing. This important change was paralleled by one of the most significant demographic increase in the recent history of European populations. The earliest Neolithic sites in Europe are located in Greece. However, the debate regarding the colonization route followed by the Middle-eastern farmers is still open. Based on archaeological, archaeobotanical, craniometric and genetic data, two main hypotheses have been proposed. The first implies the maritime colonization of North-eastern Peloponnesus from Crete, whereas the second points to an island hopping route that finally brought migrants to Central Greece. To test these hypotheses using a genetic approach, 206 samples were collected from the two Greek regions proposed as the arrival point of the two routes (Korinthian district and Euboea). Expectations for each hypothesis were compared with empirical observations based on the analysis of 60 SNPs and 26 microsatellite loci of Y-chromosome and mitochondrial DNA hypervariable region I. The analysis of Y-chromosome haplogroups revealed a strong genetic affinity of Euboea with Anatolian and Middle-eastern populations. The inferences of the time since population expansion suggests an earlier usage of agriculture in Euboea. Moreover, the haplogroup J2a-M410, supposed to be associated with the Neolithic transition, was observed at higher frequency and variance in Euboea showing, for both these parameters, a decreasing gradient moving from this area. The time since expansion estimates for J2a-M410 was found to be compatible with the Neolithic and slightly older in Euboea. The analysis of mtDNA resulted less informative. However, a higher genetic affinity of Euboea with Anatolian and Middle-eastern populations was confirmed. These results taken as a whole suggests that the most probable route followed by Neolithic farmers during the colonization of Greece was the island hopping route.

Genetic variation and demographic history of the Haplochromis laparogramma group of Lake Victoria-An analysis based on SINEs and mitochondrial DNA

More than 500 endemic haplochromine cichlid species inhabit Lake Victoria. This striking species diversity is a classical example of recent explosive adaptive radiation thought to have happened within the last similar to 15,000 years. In this study, we examined the population structure and historical demography of 3 pelagic haplochromine cichlid species that resemble in morphology and have similar niche, Haplochromis (Yssichromis) laparogramma, Haplochromis (Y.) pyrrhocephalus, and Haplochromis (Y.) sp. "glaucocephalus". We investigated the sequences of the mitochondrial DNA control region and the insertion patterns of short interspersed elements (SINEs) of 759 individuals. We show that sympatric forms are genetically differentiated in 4 of 6 cases, but we also found apparent weakening of the genetic differentiation in areas with turbid water. We estimated the timings of population expansion and species divergence to coincide with the refilling of the lake at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. We also found that estimates can be altered significantly by the choice of the shape of the molecular clock. If we employ the nonlinear clock model of evolutionary rates in which the rates are higher towards the recent, the population expansion was dated at around the event of desiccation of the lake ca. 17,000 YBP. Thus, we succeeded in clarifying the species and population structure of closely related Lake Victoria cichlids and in showing the importance of applying appropriate clock calibrations in elucidating recent evolutionary events. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

United we stand, divided we fall: a meta-analysis of experiments on clonal integration and its relationship to invasiveness

Fragmentation and vegetative regeneration from small fragments may contribute to population expansion, dispersal and establishment of new populations of introduced plants. However, no study has systematically tested whether a high capacity of vegetative regeneration is associated with a high degree of invasiveness. For small single-node fragments, the presence of internodes may increase regeneration capacity because internodes may store carbohydrates and proteins that can be used for regeneration. We conducted an experiment with 39 stoloniferous plant species to examine the regeneration capacity of small, single-node fragments with or without attached stolon internodes. We asked (1) whether the presence of stolon internodes increases regeneration from single-node fragments, (2) whether regeneration capacity differs between native and introduced species in China, and (3) whether regeneration capacity is positively associated with plant invasiveness at a regional scale (within China) and at a global scale. Most species could regenerate from single-node fragments, and the presence of internodes increased regeneration rate and subsequent growth and/or asexual reproduction. Regeneration capacity varied greatly among species, but showed no relationship to invasiveness, either in China or globally. High regeneration capacity from small fragments may contribute to performance of clonal plants in general, but it does not appear to explain differences in invasiveness among stoloniferous clonal species.

Plant invasiveness is not linked to the capacity of regeneration from small fragments: an experimental test with 39 stoloniferous species

Fragmentation and vegetative regeneration from small fragments may contribute to population expansion, dispersal and establishment of new populations of introduced plants. However, no study has systematically tested whether a high capacity of vegetative regeneration is associated with a high degree of invasiveness. For small single-node fragments, the presence of internodes may increase regeneration capacity because internodes may store carbohydrates and proteins that can be used for regeneration. We conducted an experiment with 39 stoloniferous plant species to examine the regeneration capacity of small, single-node fragments with or without attached stolon internodes. We asked (1) whether the presence of stolon internodes increases regeneration from single-node fragments, (2) whether regeneration capacity differs between native and introduced species in China, and (3) whether regeneration capacity is positively associated with plant invasiveness at a regional scale (within China) and at a global scale. Most species could regenerate from single-node fragments, and the presence of internodes increased regeneration rate and subsequent growth and/or asexual reproduction. Regeneration capacity varied greatly among species, but showed no relationship to invasiveness, either in China or globally. High regeneration capacity from small fragments may contribute to performance of clonal plants in general, but it does not appear to explain differences in invasiveness among stoloniferous clonal species

Ancient DNA, a Neolithic legging from the Swiss Alps and the early history of goat

Ancient DNA from a Neolithic legging (1st half of the 3rd millennium BC) found at Lenk, Schnidejoch (2750 m a.sl.) in the Swiss Alps has demonstrated, that modern distribution of genetic variation does not reflect past spatio-temporal signatures. The legging was made from the skin of a domestic goat (Capra hircus), belonging to the caprine haplogroup B1, which is marginal in Europe today, but represents a third highly diverse goat haplogroup entering Europe already in the Neolithic. Population expansion of lineage B therefore happened more than 4500 years ago, but their members were at some point almost completely replaced by goats of today's common A and C haplogroups.

Global patterns of DNA polymorphism in noncoding regions in human populations

DNA sequence variation is currently a major source of data for studying human origins, evolution, and demographic history, and for detecting linkage association of complex diseases. In this dissertation, I investigated DNA variation in worldwide populations from two ∼10 kb autosomal regions on 22q11.2 (noncoding) and 1q24 (introns). A total of 75 variant sites were found among 128 human sequences in the 22q11.2 region, yielding an estimate of 0.088% for nucleotide diversity (π), and a total of 52 variant sites were found among 122 human sequences in the 1q24 region with an estimated π value of 0.057%. The data from these two regions and a 10 kb noncoding region on Xq13.3 all show a strong excess of low-frequency variants in comparison to that expected from an equilibrium population, indicating a relatively recent population expansion. The effective population sizes estimated from the three regions were 11,000, 12,700, and 8,600, respectively, which are close to the commonly used value of 10,000. In each of the two autosomal regions, the age of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) was estimated to be older than 1 million years among all the sequences and ∼600,000 years among non-African sequences, providing first evidence from autosomal noncoding or intronic regions for a genetic history of humans much more ancient than the emergence of modern humans. The ancient genetic history of humans indicates no severe bottleneck during the evolution of humans in the last half million years; otherwise, much of the ancient genetic history would have been lost during a severe bottleneck. This study strongly suggests that both the “out of Africa” and the multiregional models are too simple for explaining the evolution of modern humans. A compilation of genome-wide data revealed that nucleotide diversity is highest in autosomal regions, intermediate in X-linked regions, and lowest in Y-linked regions. The data suggest the existence of background selection or selective sweep on Y-linked loci. In general, the nucleotide diversity in humans is low compared to that in chimpanzee and Drosophila populations. ^