879 resultados para population change


Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

More than eighteen percent of the world’s population lives without reliable access to clean water, forced to walk long distances to get small amounts of contaminated surface water. Carrying heavy loads of water long distances and ingesting contaminated water can lead to long-term health problems and even death. These problems affect the most vulnerable populations, women, children, and the elderly, more than anyone else. Water access is one of the most pressing issues in development today. Boajibu, a small village in Sierra Leone, where the author served in Peace Corps for two years, lacks access to clean water. Construction of a water distribution system was halted when a civil war broke out in 1992 and has not been continued since. The community currently relies on hand-dug and borehole wells that can become dirty during the dry season, which forces people to drink contaminated water or to travel a far distance to collect clean water. This report is intended to provide a design the system as it was meant to be built. The water system design was completed based on the taps present, interviews with local community leaders, local surveying, and points taken with a GPS. The design is a gravity-fed branched water system, supplied by a natural spring on a hill adjacent to Boajibu. The system’s source is a natural spring on a hill above Boajibu, but the flow rate of the spring is unknown. There has to be enough flow from the spring over a 24-hour period to meet the demands of the users on a daily basis, or what is called providing continuous flow. If the spring has less than this amount of flow, the system must provide intermittent flow, flow that is restricted to a few hours a day. A minimum flow rate of 2.1 liters per second was found to be necessary to provide continuous flow to the users of Boajibu. If this flow is not met, intermittent flow can be provided to the users. In order to aid the construction of a distribution system in the absence of someone with formal engineering training, a table was created detailing water storage tank sizing based on possible source flow rates. A builder can interpolate using the source flow rate found to get the tank size from the table. However, any flow rate below 2.1 liters per second cannot be used in the table. In this case, the builder should size the tank such that it can take in the water that will be supplied overnight, as all the water will be drained during the day because the users will demand more than the spring can supply through the night. In the developing world, there is often a problem collecting enough money to fund large infrastructure projects, such as a water distribution system. Often there is only enough money to add only one or two loops to a water distribution system. It is helpful to know where these one or two loops can be most effectively placed in the system. Various possible loops were designated for the Boajibu water distribution system and the Adaptive Greedy Heuristic Loop Addition Selection Algorithm (AGHLASA) was used to rank the effectiveness of the possible loops to construct. Loop 1 which was furthest upstream was selected because it benefitted the most people for the least cost. While loops which were further downstream were found to be less effective because they would benefit fewer people. Further studies should be conducted on the water use habits of the people of Boajibu to more accurately predict the demands that will be placed on the system. Further population surveying should also be conducted to predict population change over time so that the appropriate capacity can be built into the system to accommodate future growth. The flow at the spring should be measured using a V-notch weir and the system adjusted accordingly. Future studies can be completed adjusting the loop ranking method so that two users who may be using the water system for different lengths of time are not counted the same and vulnerable users are weighted more heavily than more robust users.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

An Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic framework for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 748 in the southern Indian Ocean is established, which provides a foundation for this and future quantitative biogeographic studies. This biostratigraphic analysis, together with quantitative nannofossil data, enables a reinterpretation of the preliminary magnetostratigraphy and a new placement for magnetic Subchron CBN in the lowermost Oligocene. Calcareous nannofossil species diversity is low at Site 748 relative to lower latitude sites, with about 13 taxa in the middle Eocene, gradually decreasing to about 6 in the late Oligocene. There is, however, no apparent mass extinction at any stratigraphic level. Similarly, no mass extinctions were recorded at or near the Eocene/Oligocene boundary at Site 711 in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Species diversity at the equatorial site is significantly higher than at Site 748, with a maximum of 39 species in the middle Eocene and a minimum of 14 species in the late Oligocene. The abundance patterns of nannofossil taxa are also quite different at the two sites, with chiasmoliths, Isthmolithus recurvus, and Reticulofenestra daviesii abundant and restricted to the high-latitude site and Coccolithus formosus, discoasters, and sphenoliths abundant at the equatorial site but impoverished at the high-latitude site. This indicates a significant latitudinal biogeographic gradient between the equatorial site and the high-latitude site in the Indian Ocean for the middle Eocene-Oligocene interval. The abundance change of warm-water taxa is similar to that of species diversity at Site 711. There is a general trend of decreasing abundance of warm-water taxa from the middle Eocene through the early Oligocene at Site 711, suggesting a gradual cooling of the surface waters in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The abundance of warm-water taxa increased in the late Oligocene, in association with an increase in species diversity, and this may reflect a warming of the surface waters in the late Oligocene. An abrupt increase in the abundance of cool-water taxa (from ~20% to over 90%) occurred from 36.3 to 35.9 Ma at high-latitude Site 748. Coincident with this event was a ~1.0 per mil positive shift in the delta18O value of planktonic foraminifers and the occurrence of ice-rafted debris. This abrupt change in the nannofossil population is a useful biostratigraphic event for locating the bottom of magnetic Subchron C13N in the Southern Ocean. The sharp increase in cool-water taxa coeval with a large positive shift in delta18O values suggests that the high-latitude surface waters drastically cooled around 36.3-35.9 Ma. The temperature drop is estimated to be 4°C or more at Site 748 based on the nannofossil population change relative to the latitudinal biogeographic gradient established in the South Atlantic Ocean during previous studies. Consequently, much of the delta18O increase at Site 748 appears to be due to a temperature drop in the high latitudes rather than an ice-volume signal. The ~0.1 per mil delta18O increase not accounted for by the temperature drop is attributed to an ice-volume increase of 4.6 * 10**3 km**3, or 20% the size of the present Antarctic ice sheet.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Viver um maior número de anos não significa necessariamente que se viva com qualidade. Devido às alterações demográficas verificadas nos últimos anos e face ao envelhecimento progressivo da população mundial e consequente aumento da esperança média de vida, ao acréscimo das doenças crónicas e à dependência a elas associada, surgem dificuldades que os doentes e os seus cuidadores enfrentam no seu quotidiano de internamento. Assim, surgiu a necessidade de equacionar a problemática da Qualidade de Vida e a Vulnerabilidade ao Stress dos Cuidadores Formais, que diariamente trabalham numa Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados do Alentejo. Este trabalho foi desenvolvido numa Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados com duas valências de internamento, a Média e a Longa Duração, com os Cuidadores Formais que nele aceitaram participar. Entre eles, encontram-se as mais diversas profissões, desde Auxiliares de Lar, Enfermeiros, Fisioterapeutas, Psicólogos, Animadores Socioculturais, Técnicos de Psicomotricidade, Terapeutas da Fala e Assistentes Sociais. Todos eles representam um papel muito importante no cuidado aos seus clientes, cada um na sua área. Ao delinear este estudo, o Problema prático identificado foi se existia uma relação entre a Qualidade de Vida e a Vulnerabilidade ao Stress dos Cuidadores Formais de uma Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados do Alentejo. Este estudo foi desenvolvido com uma população de 63 elementos, todos Cuidadores Formais a desempenhar funções no local de estudo já referenciado. Foi utilizada a abordagem quantitativa, que é uma metodologia de investigação de vertente epistemológica positivista. Neste estudo, foram utilizados dois instrumentos para aplicar e recolher os dados: um destinado a medir a vulnerabilidade ao stress (23 QVS) dos cuidadores formais; outro para avaliar a qualidade de vida (WHOQOL-Bref), gentilmente cedidos pelos seus autores. Os dados recolhidos, após analisados apontaram no sentido de que à medida que a qualidade de vida aumentava nos diferentes domínios, diminuía a vulnerabilidade ao stress.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Title from cover.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Understanding the reasons for long-term population change in a species requires an evaluation of ecological variables that may account for the observed dynamics. In this study, long-term changes in indices of Smallmouth Bass condition and population levels were examined for eastern Lake Ontario and the Bay of Quinte. Smallmouth Bass are an extremely important recreational fish species native to Lake Ontario. They have experienced numerous changes in their environment through direct human impacts, climate change, predation, and habitat sharing with non-native species. Smallmouth Bass have experienced an increase in body length and weight likely due to a diet shift from crayfish to predominantly Round Gobies which has allowed them to increase their growth rate. According to existing assessment data however, this increase in body size has not been associated with an increase in abundance. Long-term data from gill net sampling shows that Smallmouth Bass populations have been declining since the late 1980s with no indication of recovery. This could be due to a variety of factors, but it is most likely due to a change in the selectivity of gill nets because of the change in body size as well as a habitat shift away from gill net sampling sites. Adjusting for gill net selectivity has revealed that sub-adult bass abundance is currently greater than it was historically, and that very large bass are likely not being retained within the gill nets that are currently used. The use of a long-term data set in this study has led to a much better understanding of Smallmouth Bass abundance and ecology.

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2016-10-04 08:39:25.778

Relevância:

60.00% 60.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This thesis examines how tourism affects conditions for young adults in rural areas. Such a study lies at the intersection of research about tourism impacts, adult transition, and rural areas. The aim is to examine how largescale tourism affects the opportunities for young adults living in rural areas; their perception of place and the perceived opportunities and obstacles that tourism provides. The thesis utilizes a mixed method approach. A quantitative study based on micro-data on individuals identifies the patterns and magnitudes of the mechanisms by which tourism affects population change among young adults. Interview methods are used in the case study area, Sälen, to investigate these mechanisms in depth. Finally, the rural–urban dichotomy is explored in a conceptual study that asks how tourism affects the perception of a local village as either rural or urban. Young inhabitants in rural areas are rarely considered in tourism research; therefore, the main contribution of this thesis is that it illuminates how tourism affects conditions for young adults in rural areas. The thesis reveals a substantial impact on the adult transition, mainly due to easier access to the labor market and a good supply of jobs during the high season. Further, the large number of people passing through creates flows of opportunities to make friends, get a job, or just meet people. All of these factors contribute to high mobility in these places, and to the perception of them as places where things happen. The high mobility in Sälen implies that fixed migrant categories (such as stayers and leavers) are largely insufficient. The tourism environment creates a space that is always under construction and continually producing new social relations mainly perceived as opportunities. Conceptualizing this as a modern rurality is a way to move beyond the often implicit notions of urban as modern and rural as traditional.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Activated protein C resistance (APCR), the most common risk factor for venous thrombosis, is the result of a G to A base substitution at nucleotide 1691 (R506Q) in the factor V gene. Current techniques to detect the factor V Leiden mutation, such as determination of restriction length polymorphisms, do not have the capacity to screen large numbers of samples in a rapid, cost- effective test. The aim of this study was to apply the first nucleotide change (FNC) technology, to the detection of the factor V Leiden mutation. After preliminary amplification of genomic DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), an allele-specific primer was hybridised to the PCR product and extended using fluorescent terminating dideoxynucleotides which were detected by colorimetric assay. Using this ELISA-based assay, the prevalence of the factor V Leiden mutation was determined in an Australian blood donor population (n = 500). A total of 18 heterozygotes were identified (3.6%) and all of these were confirmed with conventional MnlI restriction digest. No homozygotes for the variant allele were detected. We conclude from this study that the frequency of 3.6% is compatible with others published for Caucasian populations. In addition, the FNC technology shows promise as the basis for a rapid, automated DNA based test for factor V Leiden.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.