Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?

This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satisfied. However, new cases of failure can also emerge under learning. In particular, for Ricardian Equivalence to obtain, agents’ expectations must not depend on government’s financial variables under deficit financing.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion

We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a ‘convergence-trade’ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: fundamentals, expectations and contagion

In a research project conducted while visiting the DG-ECFIN in June 2010, we provided a detailed empirical investigation of the EMU sovereign-debt crisis up to February 2010.

Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation

‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking

Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot coordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple equilibria it is first necessary to understand how an economy arrives to a particular equilibrium. In this paper we employ notions of learnability and self-enforceability to motivate and identify equilibria of particular interest. Central among these criteria are whether the equilibrium is learnable by private agents and jointly learnable by private agents and the policymaker. We use two New Keynesian policy models to identify the strategic interactions that give rise to multiple equilibria and to illustrate our methods for identifying equilibria of interest. Importantly, unless the Pareto-preferred equilibrium is learnable by private agents, we find little reason to expect coordination on that equilibrium.

Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scienti cally valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

Mobile termination, network externalities, and consumer expectations

We re-examine the literature on mobile termination in the presence of network externalities. Externalities arise when firms discriminate between on- and off-net calls or when subscription demand is elastic. This literature predicts that profit decreases and consumer surplus increases in termination charge in a neighborhood of termination cost. This creates a puzzle since in reality we see regulators worldwide pushing termination rates down while being opposed by network operators. We show that this puzzle is resolved when consumers' expectations are assumed passive but required to be fulfilled in equilibrium (as defined by Katz and Shapiro, AER 1985), instead of being rationally responsive to non-equilibrium prices, as assumed until now.

On slicewise monotone parameterized problems and optimal proof systems for TAUT

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

Phylogenetic Code in the Cloud - Can it Meet the Expectations?

Cloud computing has recently become very popular, and several bioinformatics applications exist already in that domain. The aim of this article is to analyse a current cloud system with respect to usability, benchmark its performance and compare its user friendliness with a conventional cluster job submission system. Given the current hype on the theme, user expectations are rather high, but current results show that neither the price/performance ratio nor the usage model is very satisfactory for large-scale embarrassingly parallel applications. However, for small to medium scale applications that require CPU time at certain peak times the cloud is a suitable alternative.

Use of neuroenhancement drugs: prevalence, frequency and use expectations in Switzerland

Objective: The present study investigates the use expectations, prevalence and frequency of neuroenhancement drug (ND) use among the Swiss male population, separating college students from others. Methods: Young Swiss men were invited to participate in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. A total of 5,967 participants responded to questions on six types of NDs (wakefulness medication, antidepressants, Alzheimer's disease medication, Parkinson's disease medication, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication, and beta-blockers). The frequency of use depending on five expectations (to enhance wakefulness, attention, memory, concentration and stress reduction) was analyzed for a twelve-month period. Results: (1) About 3% of the sample indicated use of at least one ND; (2) ADHD medication was the most prevalent; (3) The type of ND preferred differed depending on academic status (4). Quantitatively, over the year, college student users used ND much less frequently than other users. Conclusions: Prevalence of ND use is low in Switzerland relative to other countries such as the United States. Patterns of ND use differed depending on academic status, suggesting that while college student ND users tended to do so rarely (probably to enhance cognitive abilities for exams), non-college male users used other NDs more frequently (probably to "get high").

Decomposing the Tourist’s Satisfaction Gap: The Role of Expectations and Cognitions

In this paper we present an empirical methodology that allows the tourist’s satisfaction gap between two destinations to be decomposed into two components. One explains the role of differences in observed characteristics of the tourists and the stay (endowments). The other captures the share of the gap due to differences in the utility that tourists derive from those characteristics (cognitive). To illustrate the use of this method, we employ data coming from a sample of tourists visiting two touristic enclaves in Tarragona (Spain). Our results indicate that the cognitive component explains most of the satisfaction gap. Keywords: Satisfaction, expectations, cognition, touristic destination

What Kind of Justice Today ? Expectations Of 'Good Justice', Convergences And Divergences Between Managerial And Judicial Actors And How They Fit Within Management-Oriented Values

This research aims toward a better understanding of the organizational culture(s) of the judiciary in Switzerland by analysing what 'good justice' means nowadays in this country. It seeks to clarify whether, and to what extent, expectations of 'good justice' of judicial actors (judges without managerial experience) and of managerial actors (court managers) are similar and to describe possible managerial implications that may result from this. As judges are at the heart of the judicial organization and exert a strong influence on other groups of actors (Sullivan, Warren et al. 1994), the congruence of their expectations with those of court managers will be at the centre of the analysis. Additionally, referring to the conceptual worlds of Boltanski and Thévenaut (1991), we analyze how closely these expectations are to management-oriented values. We found that almost half of expectations are common to the two groups examined and the main quoted ones are compatible to new public management (NPM) concepts. On the other hand, those expectations shared exclusively by judges relate to the human side of justice, whereas those specific to court managers focus on the way justice functions.

Open source software expectations in retail businesses of Igualada : an exploratory study

The emergence of open source software in the last years has become a common topic of study in different fields, from the most technical characteristics to the economical aspects. This paper examines the current status about the literature dealing with economics of open source and explores the uses, infrastructure and expectations of retail businesses and institutions of the town of Igualda about it. This qualitative case study finds out that the current equipment and level of uses of ICTs are low and that the current situation of the town stores is receptive to a potential introduction of open source software.

Expectations, experiences and attitudes of patients and primary care health professionals regarding online psychotherapeutic interventions for depression: protocol for a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND In the year 2020, depression will cause the second highest amount of disability worldwide. One quarter of the population will suffer from depression symptoms at some point in their lives. Mental health services in Western countries are overburdened. Therefore, cost-effective interventions that do not involve mental health services, such as online psychotherapy programs, have been proposed. These programs demonstrate satisfactory outcomes, but the completion rate for patients is low. Health professionals' attitudes towards this type of psychotherapy are more negative than the attitudes of depressed patients themselves. The aim of this study is to describe the profile of depressed patients who would benefit most from online psychotherapy and to identify expectations, experiences, and attitudes about online psychotherapy among both patients and health professionals that can facilitate or hinder its effects. METHODS A parallel qualitative design will be used in a randomised controlled trial on the efficiency of online psychotherapeutic treatment for depression. Through interviews and focus groups, the experiences of treated patients, their reasons for abandoning the program, the expectations of untreated patients, and the attitudes of health professionals will be examined. Questions will be asked about training in new technologies, opinions of online psychotherapy, adjustment to therapy within the daily routine, the virtual and anonymous relationship with the therapist, the process of online communication, information necessary to make progress in therapy, process of working with the program, motivations and attitudes about treatment, expected consequences, normalisation of this type of therapy in primary care, changes in the physician-patient relationship, and resources and risks. A thematic content analysis from the grounded theory for interviews and an analysis of the discursive positions of participants based on the sociological model for focus groups will be performed. DISCUSSION Knowledge of the expectations, experiences, and attitudes of both patients and medical personnel regarding online interventions for depression can facilitate the implementation of this new psychotherapeutic tool. This qualitative investigation will provide thorough knowledge of the perceptions, beliefs, and values of patients and clinicians, which will be very useful for understanding how to implement this intervention method for depression.

Expectativas, actitudes y normas percibidas respecto al uso del preservativo por los jóvenes de Mozambique = Expectations, attitudes and perceived norms regarding condom use in Mozambique young people

Objetivos: Conocer la prevalencia del uso auto informado del preservativo en la última relación sexual, así como algunas actitudes, creencias y percepciones sobre su uso para la prevención de la transmisión del VIH por vía heterosexual, en jóvenes de las ciudades de Nampula, Bemba y Lichinga, en Mozambique. Diseño: Estudio transversal de encuesta. Participantes: Seiscientos treinta y dos estudiantes de secundaria (56,8% varones), con edades comprendidas entre 15 y 24 años, seleccionados mediante un muestreo aleatorio estratificado proporcional. El porcentaje de participación es del 79%. Mediciones principales: Mediante un cuestionario, se evalúan en una escala de 0 a 10 las actitudes hacia el uso del preservativo, expectativas de resultados y de autoeficacia y aceptación percibida sobre su utilización. Asimismo se evalúa el uso auto informado del preservativo en la última relación sexual. Resultados: Sólo un 47,4% (IC 0,95 = 42,0:52,8) de los jóvenes sexualmente activos utilizó el preservativo en la última relación sexual. En general las mujeres tienen una actitud más favorable respecto a su uso y creen más en su eficacia que los hombres, pero lo utilizan menos y se sienten poco capaces de pedir su uso al varón, principalmente si se trata de su actual pareja. La autoeficacia percibida para utilizar o pedir el uso del preservativo aumenta en el caso de una pareja ocasional tanto en hombres como en mujeres. Conclusiones: Se requieren acciones institucionales y sociales que promocionen el uso del preservativo entre los jóvenes de Mozambique. Los programas preventivos deberían insistir en el cambio de actitudes y creencias, y enfatizar los beneficios que se derivan de su uso adecuado y sistemático desde la primera relación coital