A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Biosensor for determination of glucose in real samples of beverages

A biosensor was developed for spectrophotometric determination of glucose concentrations in real samples of orange juice energetic drinks, and sport drinks. The biosensor consisted of glucose oxidase (GOD) and horseradish peroxidase (HRP) immobilized onto polyaniline activated with glutaraldehyde (PANIG). Immobilization parameters were optimized for GOD, and maximum immobilization yield was 16% when 5.0 mg of PANIG and 8.9 U prepared in 0.1 mol.L-1 sodium phosphate buffer (pH 7.0) reacted for 60 minutes at 4 °C with gentle stirring. The linear operational range for glucose determination using optimized operational parameters was between 0.05 and 6.0 mg.mL-1 with a very good reproducibility of response. The results obtained in the biosensor were compared with those obtained using free enzymes (commercial kits) and then validated through statistical analysis using the Tukey test (95% confidence interval).

Using a Double-pass solar drier for drying of bamboo shoots

Three different drying methods, a forced convection double-pass solar drier (DPSD), typical cabinet type natural convection solar drier (CD) and traditional open-sun drying (OSD) were used for draying of bamboo shoots in central Vietnam. During drying the operational parameters such as drying temperature, relative humidity, air velocity, insolation and water evaporation have been recorded hourly. The mean drying temperatures and relative humidity in the drying chamber were 55.2°C, 23.7%; 47.5°C, 37,6%; 36.2°C, 47.8% in DPSD, CD and OSD, respectively. The mean global radiation during all experimental runs was 670 Wm^−2. The result also shows that fastest drying process was occurred in DPSD where the falling-rate period was achieved after 7 hours, in change to OSD where it took 16 hours. The overall drying efficiency was 23.11%, 15.83% and 9.73% in case of DPSD, CD and OSD, respectively. Although the construction cost of DPSD was significantly higher than in CD, the drying costs per one kilogram of bamboo shoots were by 42.8% lower in case of DPSD as compared to CD. Double-pass solar drier was found to be technically and economically suitable for drying of bamboo shoots under the specific conditions in central Vietnam and in all cases, the use of this drier led to considerable reduction in drying time in comparison to traditional open-sun drying.

Adsorbents a partir de fangs biològics excedents de depuradora mitjançant l'aplicació de microones: estudi d'obtenció, caracterització i aplicació en fase líquida

El fang biològic es produeix en les plantes de tractament d'aigües residuals urbanes i industrials. El tractament i la gestió dels fangs és un dels problemes més importants en el camp del tractament de les aigües residuals. Aquesta situació es preveu que es veurà agreujada en el futur, per un increment del volum de fang produït associat a l'exigència de nivells més alts de depuració i per l'augment dels nombre d'estacions depuradores en funcionament. D'altre banda, les limitacions que presenten les opcions tradicionals de gestió dels fangs, fa necessari buscar solucions innovadores i efectives per a solucionar el problema que suposa la gestió d'aquests fangs biològics. Els fangs biològics són de naturalesa carbonosa i amb un alt contingut de matèria orgànica. Aquestes característiques, permeten la conversió del fang en un sòlid adsorbent de tipus carbonós. Aquesta conversió ofereix el doble benefici de reduir el volum de fang que ha de ser gestionat i alhora produir un adsorbent amb un cost inferior a la dels adsorbents convencionals (carbons actius comercials). Fins el moment, els tractaments alta temperatura han demostrat la seva efectivitat per du a terme el procés de transformació dels excedents de fang biològic en un sòlid adsorbent carbonós (carbó actiu). Com a alternativa a aquests processos a alta temperatura, es proposa un nou procés d'obtenció d'un sòlid adsorbent carbonós a partir dels excedents de fangs biològics, mitjançant un tractament a baixa temperatura, combinant el tractament per microones amb l'addició d'un reactiu químic (H2SO4). La present tesi analitza el tractament dels excedents de fangs biològics utilitzant un tractament mitjançant microones i l'addició d'àcid sulfúric (H2SO4), al mateix temps analitza la possibilitat d'utilitzar els sòlids adsorbents obtinguts per a millorar la qualitat de les aigües residuals. Paràmetres d'operació com poden ser la quantitat d'àcid sulfúric addicionada al fang, el nivell de potència del forn microones i el temps de tractament, es modificaran per tal de determinar la influència que poden tenir sobre la qualitat del sòlid adsorbent. Un cop determinada la qualitat dels diferent sòlids adsorbents s'avalua la seva capacitat per a l'eliminació de colorant i metalls en fase líquida. Els resultats obtinguts es comparen amb els obtinguts per un carbó actiu derivat de fangs i un carbó actiu comercial.

Adsorption of the diazo dye Direct Red 23 onto a zinc oxide surface: A spectroscopic study

The adsorption of the diazo dye Direct Red 23 onto a zinc oxide surface at 30 degrees C in the dark was investigated. The color reduction was monitored by spectrophotometry at 503 run. The FTIR and Raman spectra of the Direct Red 23 adsorption as a function of ZnO concentration were registered. From the PM3 semi-empirical calculations of the atomic charge density and dipole moment of the Direct Red 23 molecule, it was demonstrated that the azo, dye molecule may be adsorbed onto the ZnO Surface through molecule geometry modifications, enhancing the interfacial area causing a variation in the bonding frequencies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TiO(2)-PHOTOCATALYZED DEGRADATION OF PHENOL IN SALINE MEDIA IN AN ANNULAR REACTOR: HYDRODYNAMICS, LUMPED KINETICS, INTERMEDIATES, AND ACUTE TOXICITY

The photocatalytic degradation of phenol in aqueous suspensions of TiO(2) under different salt concentrations in an annular reactor has been investigated. In all cases, complete removal of phenol and mineralization degrees above 90% were achieved. The reactor operational parameters were optimized and its hydrodynamics characterized in order to couple mass balance equations with kinetic ones. The photodegradation of the organics followed a Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen- Watson lumped kinetics. From GC/MS analyses, several intermediates formed during oxidation have been identified. The main ones were catechol, hydroquinone, and 3-phenyl-2-propenal, in this order. The formation of negligible concentrations of 4-chlorophenol was observed only in high salinity medium. Acute toxicity was determined by using Artemia sp. as the test organism, which indicated that intermediate products were all less toxic than phenol and a significant abatement of the overall toxicity was accomplished, regardless of the salt concentration.

Influência das tensões tectônicas na permeabilidade da formação Açu - Bacia Potiguar

The behavior of the fluid flux in oil fields is influenced by different factors and it has a big impact on the recovery of hydrocarbons. There is a need of evaluating and adapting the actual technology to the worldwide reservoirs reality, not only on the exploration (reservoir discovers) but also on the development of those that were already discovered, however not yet produced. The in situ combustion (ISC) is a suitable technique for these recovery of hydrocarbons, although it remains complex to be implemented. The main objective of this research was to study the application of the ISC as an advanced oil recovery technique through a parametric analysis of the process using vertical wells within a semi synthetic reservoir that had the characteristics from the brazilian northwest, in order to determine which of those parameters could influence the process, verifying the technical and economical viability of the method on the oil industry. For that analysis, a commercial reservoir simulation program for thermal processes was used, called steam thermal and advanced processes reservoir simulator (STARS) from the computer modeling group (CMG). This study aims, through the numerical analysis, find results that help improve mainly the interpretation and comprehension of the main problems related to the ISC method, which are not yet dominated. From the results obtained, it was proved that the mediation promoted by the thermal process ISC over the oil recovery is very important, with rates and cumulated production positively influenced by the method application. It was seen that the application of the method improves the oil mobility as a function of the heating when the combustion front forms inside the reservoir. Among all the analyzed parameters, the activation energy presented the bigger influence, it means, the lower the activation energy the bigger the fraction of recovered oil, as a function of the chemical reactions speed rise. It was also verified that the higher the enthalpy of the reaction, the bigger the fraction of recovered oil, due to a bigger amount of released energy inside the system, helping the ISC. The reservoir parameters: porosity and permeability showed to have lower influence on the ISC. Among the operational parameters that were analyzed, the injection rate was the one that showed a stronger influence on the ISC method, because, the higher the value of the injection rate, the higher was the result obtained, mainly due to maintaining the combustion front. In connection with the oxygen concentration, an increase of the percentage of this parameter translates into a higher fraction of recovered oil, because the quantity of fuel, helping the advance and the maintenance of the combustion front for a longer period of time. About the economic analysis, the ISC method showed to be economically feasible when evaluated through the net present value (NPV), considering the injection rates: the higher the injection rate, the higher the financial incomes of the final project

Estudo paramétrico da segregação gravitacional na injeção contínua de vapor

Steam injection is the most used method of additional recovery for the extraction of heavy oil. In this type procedure is common to happen gravitational segregation and this phenomenon can affect the production of oil and therefore, it shoulds be considered in the projects of continuous steam injection. For many years, the gravitational segregation was not adequately considered in the calculation procedures in Reservoir Engineering. The effect of the gravity causes the segregation of fluids inside the porous media according to their densities. The results of simulation arising from reservoirs could provide the ability to deal with the gravity, and it became apparent that the effects of the gravity could significantly affect the performance of the reservoir. It know that the gravitational segregation can happen in almost every case where there is injection of light fluid, specially the steam, and occurs with greater intensity for viscous oil reservoirs. This work discusses the influence of some parameters of the rock-reservoir in segregation as viscosity, permeability, thickness, cover gas, porosity. From a model that shows the phenomenon with greater intensity, optimized some operational parameters as the rate flow rate steam, distance between the wells injector-producer, and interval of completion which contributed to the reduction in gravity override, thus increasing the oil recovery. It was shown a greater technical-economic viability for the model of distance between the wells 100 m. The analysis was performed using the simulator of CMG (Computer Modeling Group-Stars 2007.11, in which was observed by iterating between studied variables in heavy oil reservoirs with similar characteristics to Brazilian Northeast

Injeção de vapor e solvente como um método de recuperação avançada em reservatório avançada em reservatórios de óleo pesado

Currently a resource more and more used by the petroleum industry to increase the efficiency of steam flood mechanism is the addition of solvents. The process can be understood as a combination of a thermal method (steam injection) with a miscible method (solvent injection), promoting, thus, the reduction of interfacial tensions and oil viscosity. The use of solvent alone tends to be limited because of its high cost. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a zone of low viscosity between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method, a numerical study of the process was done contemplating the effects of some operational parameters (distance between wells, injection steam rate, kind of solvent and injected solvent volume)on the accumulated production of oil, recovery factor and oil-steam rate. Semisynthetic models were used in this study but reservoir data can be extrapolated for practical applications situations on Potiguar Basin. Simulations were performed in STARS (CMG, 2007.11). It was found that injected solvent volumes increased oil recovery and oil rates. Further the majority of the injected solvent was produced and can be recycled

Estudo paramétrico da injeção de vapor em reservatórios delgados

Exploration of heavy oil reservoirs is increasing every year in worldwide, because the discovery of light oil reservoirs is becoming increasingly rare. This fact has stimulated the research with the purpose of becoming viable, technically and economically, the exploration of such oil reserves. In Brazil, in special in the Northeast region, there is a large amount of heavy oil reservoir, where the recovery by the so called secondary methods Water injection or gas injection is inefficient or even impracticable in some reservoirs with high viscosity oils (heavy oils). In this scenario, steam injection appears as an interesting alternative for recover of these kinds of oil reservoirs. Its main mechanism consists of oil viscosity reduction through steam injection, increasing reservoir temperature. This work presents a parametric simulation study of some operational and reservoir variables that had influence on oil recovery in thin reservoirs typically found in Brazilian Northeast Basins, that use the steam injection as improved oil recovery method. To carry out simulations, it was used the commercial software STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modeling Group) version 2007.11. Reservoirs variables studied were horizontal permeability, vertical and horizontal permeability ratio, water zone and pay zone thickness ratio, pay zone thickness and thermal conductivity of the rock. Whereas, operational parameters studied were distance between wells and steam injection rate. Results showed that reservoir variables that had more influence on oil recovery were horizontal permeability and water zone and pay zone thickness ratio. In relation to operational variables, results showed that short distances between wells and low steam injection rates improved oil recovery

Análise paramétrica da simulação composicional do processo de Drenagem Gravitacional Assistida por Gás (GAGD)

In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

Influência da areia argilosa na recuperação de petróleo por injeção de vapor

Continuous steam injection is one of heavy oil thermal recovery methods used in the Brazilian Northeast because of high occurrence of heavy oil reservoir. In this process, the oil into the reservoir is heated while reduces, substantially, its viscosity and improves the production. This work analyzed how the shaly sand layers influenced in the recovery. The studied models were synthetics, but the used reservoir data can be extrapolated to real situations of Potiguar Basin. The modeling was executed using the STARS - Steam Thermal and Advanced Process Reservoir Simulator - whose version was 2007.10. STARS is a tool of CMG Computer Modeling Group. The study was conducted in two stages, the first we analyzed the influence of reservoir parameters in the thermal process, so some of these were studied, including: horizontal permeability of the reservoir and the layer of shaly sand, ratio of horizontal permeability to vertical permeability, the influence of capillary pressure layer of shaly sand and as the location and dimensions of this heterogeneity can affect the productivity of oil. Among the parameters studied the horizontal permeability of the reservoir showed the most significant influence on the process followed by diversity. In the second stage three models were selected and studied some operational parameters such as injection rate, distance between wells, production time and completion intervals. Among the operating parameters studied the low rate and intermediate distances between wells showed the best recoveries

Estudo do processo de combustão in-situ em reservatórios maduros de óleos médios e leves (high pressure air injection)

Nearly 3 x 1011 m3 of medium and light oils will remain in reservoirs worldwide after conventional recovery methods have been exhausted and much of this volume would be recovered by Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods. The in-situ combustion (ISC) is an EOR method in which an oxygen-containing gas is injected into a reservoir where it reacts with the crude oil to create a high-temperature combustion front that is propagated through the reservoir. The High Pressure Air Injection (HPAI) method is a particular denomination of the air injection process applied in light oil reservoirs, for which the combustion reactions are dominant between 150 and 300°C and the generation of flue gas is the main factor to the oil displacement. A simulation model of a homogeneous reservoir was built to study, which was initially undergone to primary production, for 3 years, next by a waterflooding process for 21 more years. At this point, with the mature condition established into the reservoir, three variations of this model were selected, according to the recovery factors (RF) reached, for study the in-situ combustion (HPAI) technique. Next to this, a sensitivity analysis on the RF of characteristic operational parameters of the method was carried out: air injection rate per well, oxygen concentration into the injected gas, patterns of air injection and wells perforations configuration. This analysis, for 10 more years of production time, was performed with assistance of the central composite design. The reservoir behavior and the impacts of chemical reactions parameters and of reservoir particularities on the RF were also evaluated. An economic analysis and a study to maximize the RF of the process were also carried out. The simulation runs were performed in the simulator of thermal processes in reservoirs STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modelling Group). The results showed the incremental RF were small and the net present value (NPV) is affected by high initial investments to compress the air. It was noticed that the adoption of high oxygen concentration into the injected gas and of the five spot pattern tends to improve the RF, and the wells perforations configuration has more influence with the increase of the oil thickness. Simulated cases relating to the reservoir particularities showed that smaller residual oil saturations to gas lead to greater RF and the presence of heterogeneities results in important variations on the RF and on the production curves

Efeito da perda de carga e calor no poço injetor no processo de drenagem gravitacional assistido com vapor e solvente

Nowadays, most of the hydrocarbon reserves in the world are in the form of heavy oil, ultra - heavy or bitumen. For the extraction and production of this resource is required to implement new technologies. One of the promising processes for the recovery of this oil is the Expanding Solvent Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (ES-SAGD) which uses two parallel horizontal wells, where the injection well is situated vertically above the production well. The completion of the process occurs upon injection of a hydrocarbon additive at low concentration in conjunction with steam. The steam adds heat to reduce the viscosity of the oil and solvent aids in reducing the interfacial tension between oil/ solvent. The main force acting in this process is the gravitational and the heat transfer takes place by conduction, convection and latent heat of steam. In this study was used the discretized wellbore model, where the well is discretized in the same way that the reservoir and each section of the well treated as a block of grid, with interblock connection with the reservoir. This study aims to analyze the influence of the pressure drop and heat along the injection well in the ES-SAGD process. The model used for the study is a homogeneous reservoir, semi synthetic with characteristics of the Brazilian Northeast and numerical simulations were performed using the STARS thermal simulator from CMG (Computer Modelling Group). The operational parameters analyzed were: percentage of solvent injected, the flow of steam injection, vertical distance between the wells and steam quality. All of them were significant in oil recovery factor positively influencing this. The results showed that, for all cases analyzed, the model considers the pressure drop has cumulative production of oil below its respective model that disregards such loss. This difference is more pronounced the lower the value of the flow of steam injection

Análise paramétrica da injeção de vapor e solvente em reservatórios de óleo pesado

A significant fraction of the hydrocarbon reserves in the world is formed by heavy oils. From the thermal methods used to recovery these resources, Steamflooding has been one of the main economically viable alternatives. In Brazil, this technology is widely used by Petrobras in Northeast fields. Latent heat carried by steam heats the oil in the reservoir, reducing its viscosity and facilitating the production. In the last years, an alternative more and more used by the oil industry to increase the efficiency of this mechanism has been the addition of solvents. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a low viscosity zone between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method and investigate its applicability in reservoirs with properties similar to those found in Potiguar Basin, a numerical study was done to analyze the influence of some operational parameters (steam injection rate, injected solvent volume and solvent type) on oil recovery. Simulations were performed in STARS ("Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator"), a CMG ("Computer Modelling Group") program, version 2009.10. It was found that solvents addition to the injected steam not only anticipated the heated oil bank arrival to the producer well, but also increased the oil recovery. Lower cold water equivalent volumes were required to achieve the same oil recoveries from the models that injected only steam. Furthermore, much of the injected solvent was produced with the oil from the reservoir