The influence of climate variability on hydrological processes and surface and groundwater hydrochemistry : the tropical upper roper river catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

The Upper Roper River is one of the Australia’s unique tropical rivers which have been largely untouched by development. The Upper Roper River catchment comprises the sub-catchments of the Waterhouse River and Roper Creek, the two tributaries of the Roper River. There is a complex geological setting with different aquifer types. In this seasonal system, close interaction between surface water and groundwater contributes to both streamflow and sustaining ecosystems. The interaction is highly variable between seasons. A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed to investigate the different hydrological processes and geochemical parameters, and determine the baseline characteristics of water resources of this pristine catchment. In the catchment, long term average rainfall is around 850 mm and is summer dominant which significantly influences the total hydrological system. The difference between seasons is pronounced, with high rainfall up to 600 mm/month in the wet season, and negligible rainfall in the dry season. Canopy interception significantly reduces the amount of effective rainfall because of the native vegetation cover in the pristine catchment. Evaporation exceeds rainfall the majority of the year. Due to elevated evaporation and high temperature in the tropics, at least 600 mm of annual rainfall is required to generate potential recharge. Analysis of 120 years of rainfall data trend helped define “wet” and “dry periods”: decreasing trend corresponds to dry periods, and increasing trend to wet periods. The period from 1900 to 1970 was considered as Dry period 1, when there were years with no effective rainfall, and if there was, the intensity of rainfall was around 300 mm. The period 1970 – 1985 was identified as the Wet period 2, when positive effective rainfall occurred in almost every year, and the intensity reached up to 700 mm. The period 1985 – 1995 was the Dry period 2, with similar characteristics as Dry period 1. Finally, the last decade was the Wet period 2, with effective rainfall intensity up to 800 mm. This variability in rainfall over decades increased/decreased recharge and discharge, improving/reducing surface water and groundwater quantity and quality in different wet and dry periods. The stream discharge follows the rainfall pattern. In the wet season, the aquifer is replenished, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge are high, and surface runoff is the dominant component of streamflow. Waterhouse River contributes two thirds and Roper Creek one third to Roper River flow. As the dry season progresses, surface runoff depletes, and groundwater becomes the main component of stream flow. Flow in Waterhouse River is negligible, the Roper Creek dries up, but the Roper River maintains its flow throughout the year. This is due to the groundwater and spring discharge from the highly permeable Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers. Rainfall seasonality and lithology of both the catchment and aquifers are shown to influence water chemistry. In the wet season, dilution of water bodies by rainwater is the main process. In the dry season, when groundwater provides baseflow to the streams, their chemical composition reflects lithology of the aquifers, in particular the karstic areas. Water chemistry distinguishes four types of aquifer materials described as alluvium, sandstone, limestone and tufa. Surface water in the headwaters of the Waterhouse River, the Roper Creek and their tributaries are freshwater, and reflect the alluvium and sandstone aquifers. At and downstream of the confluence of the Roper River, river water chemistry indicates the influence of rainfall dilution in the wet season, and the signature of the Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers in the dry. Rainbow Spring on the Waterhouse River and Bitter Spring on the Little Roper River (known as Roper Creek at the headwaters) discharge from the Tindall Limestone. Botanic Walk Spring and Fig Tree Spring discharge into the Roper River from tufa. The source of water was defined based on water chemical composition of the springs, surface and groundwater. The mechanisms controlling surface water chemistry were examined to define the dominance of precipitation, evaporation or rock weathering on the water chemical composition. Simple water balance models for the catchment have been developed. The important aspects to be considered in water resource planning of this total system are the naturally high salinity in the region, especially the downstream sections, and how unpredictable climate variation may impact on the natural seasonal variability of water volumes and surface-subsurface interaction.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

From margins to mainstream : how screen and creative industries developed in the Northern Rivers region of NSW : 2000–2010

This thesis explores the proposition that growth and development in the screen and creative industries is not confined to the major capital cities. Lifestyle considerations, combined with advances in digital technology, convergence and greater access to broadband are altering requirements for geographic location, and creative workers are being drawn away from the big metropolises to certain regional areas. Regional screen industry enclaves are emerging outside of London, in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland, in Nova Scotia in Canada and in New Zealand. In the Australian context, the proposition is tested in an area regarded as a ‘special case’ in creative industry expansion: the Northern Rivers region of NSW. A key feature of the ‘specialness’ of this region is the large number of experienced, credited producers who live and operate their businesses within the region. The development of screen and creative industries in the Northern Rivers over the decade 2000 – 2010 has implications for regional regeneration and offers new insights into the rapidly changing screen industry landscape. This development also has implications for creative industry discourse, especially the dominance of the urban in creative industries thought. The research is pioneering in a number of ways. Building on the work conducted for my Masters thesis in 2000, a second study was conducted during the research phase, adapting creative industries theory and mapping methods, which have been largely city and nation-centric, and applying them to a regional context. The study adopted an action research approach as an industry development strategy for screen industries, while at the same time developing fine-grained ground up methods for collecting primary quantitative data on the size and scope of the creative industries. In accordance with the action research framework, the researcher also acted in the dual roles of industry activist and screen industry producer in the region. The central focus of the research has been both to document and contribute to the growth and development of screen and creative industries over the past decade in the Northern Rivers region. These interventions, along with policy developments at both a local and national level, and broader global shifts, have had the effect of repositioning the sector from a marginal one to a priority area considered integral to the future economic and cultural life of the region. The research includes a detailed mapping study undertaken in 2005 with comparisons to an earlier 2000 study and to ABS data for 2001 and 2006 to reveal growth trends. It also includes two case studies of projects that developed from idea to production and completion in the region during the decade in question. The studies reveal the drivers, impediments and policy implications for sustaining the development of screen industries in a regional area. A major finding of the research was the large and increasing number of experienced producers who operate within the region and the leadership role they play in driving the development of the emerging local industry. The two case studies demonstrate the impact of policy decisions on local screen industry producers and their enterprises. A brief overview of research in other regional areas is presented, including two international examples, and what they reveal about regional regeneration. Implications are drawn for creative industries discourse and regional development policy challenges for the future.

Was By The Northern Coast

‘Was by the Northern Coast’ was an installation at MetroArts in Brisbane. A pile of warped timber, evocative of a dismantled boat, sits in the middle of the gallery space on a bed of carefully-laid bands of polyester insulation and pine battening. From within the wood stack, the sound of dripping water indicates the flow of water created by a silent internal pump. The sound of water intermingles with a soft soundtrack of Kulning, an archaic form of Scandinavian song. In ‘Was by the Northern Coast’, the detritus of timber mimics the Romantic sublime of the mountain peak and nautical wreckage while the snowy drifts of the Northern European landscape become mistranslated as a field of artificial ceiling insulation. In employing such slippages, the work attempted to create the imaginative landscape of an aesthetic displaced by distance and time.

Neoproterozoic glacial deposits of the Kimberly Region and northwestern Northern Territory, Australia

Neoproterozoic glacigenic formations are preserved in the Kimberley region and northwestern Northern Territory of northern Australia. They are distributed in the west Kimberley adjacent to the northern margins of the King Leopold Orogen, the Mt Ramsay area at the junction of the King Leopold and Halls Creek Orogens, and the east Kimberley, adjacent to the eastern margin of the Halls Creek Orogen. Small outlier glacigenic deposits are preserved in the Litchfield Province, Northern Territory (Uniya Formation) and Georgina Basin, western Queensland (Little Burke Formation). Glacigenic strata comprise diamictite, conglomerate, sandstone and pebbly mudstone and characterize the Walsh, Landrigan and Fargoo/Moonlight Valley formations. Thin units of laminated dolomite sit conformably at the top of the Walsh, Landrigan and Moonlight Valley formations. Glacigenic units are also interbedded with the carbonate platform deposits of the Egan Formation and Boonall Dolomite. δ13C data are available for all carbonate units. There is no direct chronological constraint on these successions. Dispute over regional correlation of the Neoproterozoic succession has been largely resolved through biostratigraphic, chemostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic analysis. However, palaeomagnetic results from the Walsh Formation are inconsistent with sedimentologically based correlations. Two stratigraphically defined glaciations are preserved in northwestern Australia: the ‘Landrigan Glaciation’, characterized by southwest-directed continental ice-sheet movement and correlated with late Cryogenian glaciation elsewhere in Australia and the world; and, the ‘Egan Glaciation’, a more localized glaciation of the Ediacaran Period. Future research focus should include chronology, palaeomagnetic constraint and tectonostratigraphic controls on deposition.

Incidence and geographic distribution of endemic Burkitt lymphoma in northern Uganda revisited

Endemic Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is etiologically associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and ecologically linked to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. However, these infections imperfectly correlate with BL epidemiology. To obtain recent epidemiological data, we studied district- and county-specific BL incidence and standardized incidence ratios using data collected from 1997 through 2006 at Lacor Hospital in northern Uganda, where studies were last done more than 30 years ago. Among 500 patients, median age was 6 years (inter-quartile range 5-8) and male-to-female ratio was 1.8:1. Among those known, most presented with abdominal (56%, M: F 1.4:1) vs. only facial tumors (35%, M: F 3.0:1). Abdominal tumors occurred in older (mean age: 7.0 vs. 6.0 years; p<0.001) and more frequently in female children (68% vs. 50%; OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5-3.5). The age-standardized incidence was 2.4 per 100,000, being 0.6 in 1-4 year olds, 4.1 in 5-9 year olds and 2.8 in 10-14 year olds and varied 3-4-fold across districts. The incidence was lower in districts that were far from Lacor and higher in districts that were close to Lacor. While districts close to Lacor were also more urbanized, the incidence was higher in the nearby perirural areas. We highlight high BL incidence and geographic variation in neighboring districts in northern Uganda. While distance from Lacor clearly influenced the patterns, the incidence was lower in municipal than in surrounding rural areas. Jaw tumors were characterized by young age and male gender, but presentation has shifted away from facial to mostly abdominal. Keywords: Africa, cancer, malaria, Epstein-Barr virus, clustering, epidemiology

Charity law review and civil society : paving the way from alienation to social inclusion in Northern Ireland ; the resonance with experience in Australia

This paper considers the opportunity, presented by the forthcoming charity law review in Northern Ireland, for adjusting the charity law framework so as to focus charitable activity on the circumstances typical of societies in conflict or experiencing transition. This opportunity is one for broadening the definition of 'charitable purpose' to include activities directed towards forestalling alienation and facilitating social inclusion. It would include rehabilitating the victims of social confrontation and developing related services of advocacy, mediation and reconciliation. It argues that a creative response to this opportunity could address the current social inclusion agenda and thereby contribute to the consolidation of civil society in this jurisdiction. It suggests that the experience in Northern Ireland, as an exemplar of a society in transition, has a resonance with the experience in Australia. It further suggests that it could also have a relevance for approaching the management of tensions within or between nations where people may otherwise come to perceive themselves as alienated...

Discriminating stromatolite formation modes using rare earth element geochemistry: Trapping and binding versus in situ precipitation of stromatolites from the Neoproterozoic Bitter Springs Formation, Northern Territory, Australia

Stromatolites consist primarily of trapped and bound ambient sediment and/or authigenic mineral precipitates, but discrimination of the two constituents is difficult where stromatolites have a fine texture. We used laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry to measure trace element (rare earth element – REE, Y and Th) concentrations in both stromatolites (domical and branched) and closely associated particulate carbonate sediment in interspaces (spaces between columns or branches) from bioherms within the Neoproterozoic Bitter Springs Formation, central Australia. Our high resolution sampling allows discrimination of shale-normalised REE patterns between carbonate in stromatolites and immediately adjacent, fine-grained ambient particulate carbonate sediment from interspaces. Whereas all samples show similar negative La and Ce anomalies, positive Gd anomalies and chondritic Y/Ho ratios, the stromatolites and non-stromatolite sediment are distinguishable on the basis of consistently elevated light REEs (LREEs) in the stromatolitic laminae and relatively depleted LREEs in the particulate sediment samples. Additionally, concentrations of the lithophile element Th are higher in ambient sediment samples than in stromatolites, consistent with accumulation of some fine siliciclastic detrital material in the ambient sediment but a near absence in the stromatolites. These findings are consistent with the stromatolites consisting dominantly of in situ carbonate precipitates rather than trapped and bound ambient sediment. Hence, high resolution trace element (REE + Y, Th) geochemistry can discriminate fine-grained carbonates in these stromatolites from coeval non-stromatolitic carbonate sediment and demonstrates that the sampled stromatolites formed primarily from in situ precipitation, presumably within microbial mats/biofilms, rather than by trapping and binding of ambient sediment. Identification of the source of fine carbonate in stromatolites is significant, because if it is not too heavily contaminated by trapped ambient sediment, it may contain geochemical biosignatures and/or direct evidence of the local water chemistry in which the precipitates formed.

Permeability estimation conditioned to geophysical downhole log data in sandstones of the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland : methods and application

This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.