Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation. We show that in portfolios where security specific effects have not been completely diversified, portfolio autocorrelation will not increase monotonically with increasing non-trading, as indicated in Lo and MacKinlay (1990). We show that at high levels of non-trading, portfolio autocorrelation will become a decreasing function of non-trading probability and may take negative values. We find that heterogeneity among the means, variances and betas of the component securities in a portfolio can act to increase the induced autocorrelation, particularly in portfolios containing fewer stocks. Security specific effects remain even when the number of securities in the portfolio is far in excess of that considered necessary to diversify security risk. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Chronic low back pain among French healthcare workers and prognostic factors of return to work (RTW): a non-randomized controlled trial

International audience

The impact of different power dividers used in a non-uniform planar antenna array

Wireless communications are widely used for various applications, requiring antennas with different features. Often, to achieve the desired radiation pattern, is necessary to employ antenna arrays, using non-uniform excitation on its elements. Power dividers can be used and the best known are the T-junction and the Wilkinson power divider, whose main advantage is the isolation between output ports. In this paper the impact of this isolation on the overall performance of a circularly polarized planar antenna array using non-uniform excitation is investigated. Results show a huge decrease of the array bandwidths either in terms of return loss or in polarization, without resistors. © 2014 IEEE.

Return Migration, Self-Selection and Entrepreneurship in Mozambique

Does return migration affect entrepreneurship? This question has important implications for the debate on the economic development effects of migration for origin countries. The existing literature has, however, not addressed how the estimation of the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self-selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper uses a representative household survey conducted in Mozambique in order to address this research question. We exploit variation provided by displacement caused by civil war in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to negative unobservable self-selection at both and each of the initial and return stages of migration, which results in an under-estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator not controlling for self-selection. Indeed, ‘naïve’ estimates point to a 13 pp increase in the probability of owning a business when there is a return migrant in the household relative to non-migrants only, whereas excluding the double effect of unobservable self-selection, this effect becomes significantly larger - between 24 pp and 29 pp, depending on the method of estimation and source of variation used.

Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Productivity gains from migration: An analysis of Cape Verdean return migrants

Are return migrants more productive than non-migrants? If so, is it a causal effect or simply self-selection? Existing literature has not reached a consensus on the role of return migration for origin countries. To answer these research questions, an empirical analysis was performed based on household data collected in Cape Verde. One of the most common identification problems in the migration literature is the presence of migrant self-selection. In order to disentangle potential selection bias, we use instrumental variable estimation using variation provided by unemployment rates in migrant destination countries, which is compared with OLS and Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) methods. The results using the instrumental variable approach provide evidence of labour income gains due to return migration, while OLS underestimates the coefficient of interest. This bias points towards negative self-selection of return migrants on unobserved characteristics, although the different estimates cannot be distinguished statistically. Interestingly, migration duration and occupational changes after migration do not seem to influence post-migration income. There is weak evidence that return migrants from the United States have higher income gains caused by migration than the ones who returned from Portugal.

Proportion of out of hospital adult non traumatic cardiac arrest presenting as a convulsion

Introduction: The majority of convulsions are due to an epilepticseizure or a convulsive syncope. In some cases, this is the firstsymptom of an out of hospital cardiac arrest (OH-CA).Objective: This study was aimed to measure the proportion of adultnon traumatic OH-CA presenting as a convulsion.Methodology: We prospectively collected all incoming calls with anout-of-hospital non traumatic seizure as the chief complaint in patients>18 years during a 24-months period. Among these calls, we collectedcases identified as OH-CA by paramedics.Results: During the 24-months period, the EMS dispatch centerreceived 561 calls for an out-of-hospital non traumatic convulsion in anadult. Twelve cases were ultimately classified as CA. In this group, onebystander spontaneously reported that the patient was known forepilepsy. The incidence of OH-CA presenting as convulsions wastherefore 2.1% of all calls for convulsion. Over the same period, theEMS dispatch center received 1035 calls related to an adult nontraumatic OH-CA. Therefore the rate of OH-CA presenting as aconvulsion represented 1.2% of all adult non traumatic OH-CA.Conclusion: Only 12 cases out of the 531 calls for non traumatic adultconvulsions were confirmed OH-CA (2.1%). Nevertheless, this unusualpresentation of OH-CA must be recognized by dispatchers, even whena patient is reported by bystander as a known epileptic. Dispatchersshould keep bystanders on line or call them back before paramedics'arrival, and have them confirm the progressive return of a normalpattern of breathing and state of consciousness; if not, they shouldencourage when necessary bystander to initiate CPR. For dispatchers,a past medical history of epilepsy should not be regarded as sufficientinformation to rule-out OH-CA. It is mandatory that known epilepticpatients should be monitored in the same way as non-epileptic patients.

Functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation versus outpatient physiotherapy for non specific low back pain: randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades the treatment of non-specific low back pain has turned to active modalities, some of which were based on cognitive-behavioural principles. Non-randomised studies clearly favour functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation over outpatient physiotherapy. However, systematic reviews and meta-analysis provide contradictory evidence regarding the effects on return to work and functional status. The aim of the present randomised study was to compare long-term functional and work status after 3-week functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation or 18 supervised outpatient physiotherapy sessions. METHODS: 109 patients with non-specific low back pain were randomised to either a 3-week functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation programme, including physical and ergonomic training, psychological pain management, back school and information, or 18 sessions of active outpatient physiotherapy over 9 weeks. Primary outcomes were functional disability (Oswestry) and work status. Secondary outcomes were lifting capacity (Spinal Function Sort and PILE test), lumbar range-of-motion (modified-modified Schöber and fingertip-to-floor tests), trunk muscle endurance (Shirado and Biering-Sörensen tests) and aerobic capacity (modified Bruce test). RESULTS: Oswestry disability index was improved to a significantly greater extent after functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation compared to outpatient physiotherapy at follow-up of 9 weeks (P = 0.012), 9 months (P = 0.023) and 12 months (P = 0.011). Work status was significantly improved after functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation only (P = 0.012), resulting in a significant difference compared to outpatient physiotherapy at 12 months' follow-up (P = 0.012). Secondary outcome results were more contrasted. CONCLUSIONS: Functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation was better than outpatient physiotherapy in improving functional and work status. From an economic point of view, these results should be backed up by a cost-effectiveness study.

Can one or two high doses of oral vitamin D3 correct insufficiency in a non-supplemented rheumatologic population?

We evaluated the effectiveness of supplementation with high dose of oral vitamin D3 to correct vitamin D insufficiency. We have shown that one or two oral bolus of 300,000 IU of vitamin D3 can correct vitamin D insufficiency in 50% of patients and that the patients who benefited more from supplementation were those with the lowest baseline levels. INTRODUCTION: Adherence with daily oral supplements of vitamin D3 is suboptimal. We evaluated the effectiveness of a single high dose of oral vitamin D3 (300,000 IU) to correct vitamin D insufficiency in a rheumatologic population. METHODS: Over 1 month, 292 patients had levels of 25-OH vitamin D determined. Results were classified as: deficiency <10 ng/ml, insufficiency ≥10 to 30 ng/ml, and normal ≥30 ng/ml. We added a category using the IOM recommended cut-off of 20 ng/ml. Patients with deficient or normal levels were excluded, as well as patients already supplemented with vitamin D3. Selected patients (141) with vitamin D insufficiency (18.5 ng/ml (10.2-29.1) received a prescription for 300,000 IU of oral vitamin D3 and were asked to return after 3 (M3) and 6 months (M6). Patients still insufficient at M3 received a second prescription for 300,000 IU of oral vitamin D3. Relation between changes in 25-OH vitamin D between M3 and M0 and baseline values were assessed. RESULTS: Patients (124) had a blood test at M3. Two (2%) had deficiency (8.1 ng/ml (7.5-8.7)) and 50 (40%) normal results (36.7 ng/ml (30.5-5.5)). Seventy-two (58%) were insufficient (23.6 ng/ml (13.8-29.8)) and received a second prescription for 300,000 IU of oral vitamin D3. Of the 50/124 patients who had normal results at M3 and did not receive a second prescription, 36 (72%) had a test at M6. Seventeen (47%) had normal results (34.8 ng/ml (30.3-42.8)) and 19 (53%) were insufficient (25.6 ng/ml (15.2-29.9)). Of the 72/124 patients who receive a second prescription, 54 (75%) had a test at M6. Twenty-eight (52%) had insufficiency (23.2 ng/ml (12.8-28.7)) and 26 (48%) had normal results (33.8 ng/ml (30.0-43.7)). At M3, 84% patients achieved a 25-OH vitamin D level >20 ng/ml. The lowest the baseline value, the highest the change after 3 months (negative relation with a correlation coefficient r = -0.3, p = 0.0007). CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that one or two oral bolus of 300,000 IU of vitamin D3 can correct vitamin D insufficiency in 50% of patients.

Early predictors of outcome in comatose survivors of ventricular fibrillation and non-ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest treated with hypothermia: a prospective study

OBJECTIVES: Current indications for therapeutic hypothermia (TH) are restricted to comatose patients with cardiac arrest (CA) due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) and without circulatory shock. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of this treatment in more heterogeneous groups of patients, including those with non-VF rhythms and/or shock and to identify early predictors of outcome in this setting. DESIGN: Prospective study, from December 2004 to October 2006. SETTING: 32-bed medico-surgical intensive care unit, university hospital. PATIENTS: Comatose patients with out-of-hospital CA. INTERVENTIONS: TH to 33 +/- 1 degrees C (external cooling, 24 hrs) was administered to patients resuscitated from CA due to VF and non-VF (including asystole or pulseless electrical activity), independently from the presence of shock. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We hypothesized that simple clinical criteria available on hospital admission (initial arrest rhythm, duration of CA, and presence of shock) might help to identify patients who eventually survive and might most benefit from TH. For this purpose, outcome was related to these predefined variables. Seventy-four patients (VF 38, non-VF 36) were included; 46% had circulatory shock. Median duration of CA (time from collapse to return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC]) was 25 mins. Overall survival was 39.2%. However, only 3.1% of patients with time to ROSC > 25 mins survived, as compared to 65.7% with time to ROSC < or = 25 mins. Using a logistic regression analysis, time from collapse to ROSC, but not initial arrest rhythm or presence of shock, independently predicted survival at hospital discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Time from collapse to ROSC is strongly associated with outcome following VF and non-VF cardiac arrest treated with therapeutic hypothermia and could therefore be helpful to identify patients who benefit most from active induced cooling.

The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Inhibition of return, gap effect and saccadic reaction time to a visual target

Simple manual reaction time (MRT) to a visual target (S2) is shortened when a non-informative cue (S1) is flashed at the S2 location shortly before the onset of S2 (early facilitation). Afterwards, MRT to S2 appearing at the S1 location is lengthened (inhibition of return - IOR). Similar results have been obtained for saccadic reaction time (SRT). Moreover, when there is a temporal gap between offset of the fixation point (FP) and onset of a target (gap paradigm), SRT is shorter than SRT in an overlap paradigm (FP remains on). In the present study, we determined SRT to S2 (10º) after presenting S1 at the same eccentricity (10º) or at a parafoveal position (2º) in the same or in the opposite hemifield. In addition, we employed both gap and overlap paradigms. Twelve subjects were asked not to respond to S1 (2º or 10º) to the right or to the left of FP, but to respond by making a saccadic movement in response to S2. We obtained the following results: 1) a 40-ms gap effect, 2) an interaction between gap effect and IOR, 3) a 39-ms delay (IOR) when S2 appeared at the cued (S1) position, and 4) a smaller (17 ms) but significant inhibition when S1 occurred at 2º in the ipsilateral hemifield. Thus, a parafoveal (2º) S1 elicits an inhibition of SRT towards ipsilateral peripheral targets. Since an inhibition of the ipsilateral hemifield by a 1º eccentric cue has been reported to occur when manual responses are employed, we suggest that the postulated functional link between covert and overt orienting of attention is also valid for parafoveal cues.