Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Local richness and distribution of the lizard fauna in natural habitat mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

We investigate local lizard richness and distribution in central Brazilian Cerrado, harbouring one of the least studied herpetofaunas in the Neotropical region. Our results are based on standardized samplings at 10 localities, involving 2917 captures of 57 lizard species in 10 families. Local richness values exceeded most presented in earlier studies and varied from 13 to 28 species, with modal values between 19 and 28 species. Most of the Cerrado lizard fauna is composed of habitat-specialists with patchy distributions in the mosaic of grasslands, savannas and forests, resulting in habitat-structured lizard assemblages. Faunal overlap between open and forested habitats is limited, and forested and open areas may act as mutual barriers to lizard distribution. Habitat use is influenced by niche conservatism in deep lineages, with iguanians and gekkotans showing higher use of forested habitats, whereas autarchoglossans are richer and more abundant in open habitats. Contrary to trends observed in Cerrado birds and large mammals, lizard richness is significantly higher in open, interfluvial habitats that dominate the Cerrado landscape. Between-localities variation in lizard richness seems tied to geographical distance, landscape history and phylogenetic constraints, factors operating in other well-studied lizard faunas in open environments. Higher richness in dominant, open interfluvial habitats may be recurrent in Squamata and other small-bodied vertebrates, posing a threat to conservation as these habitats are most vulnerable to the fast, widespread and ongoing process of habitat destruction in central Brazil.

SIZE AS A LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE II: DIRECT SELECTION ON SIZE OR CORRELATED RESPONSE DUE TO CONSTRAINTS?

Evolutionary change in New World Monkey (NWM) skulls occurred primarily along the line of least resistance defined by size (including allometric) variation (g(max)). Although the direction of evolution was aligned with this axis, it was not clear whether this macroevolutionary pattern results from the conservation of within population genetic covariance patterns (long-term constraint) or long-term selection along a size dimension, or whether both, constraints and selection, were inextricably involved. Furthermore, G-matrix stability can also be a consequence of selection, which implies that both, constraints embodied in g(max) and evolutionary changes observed on the trait averages, would be influenced by selection Here, we describe a combination of approaches that allows one to test whether any particular instance of size evolution is a correlated by-product due to constraints (g(max)) or is due to direct selection on size and apply it to NWM lineages as a case study. The approach is based on comparing the direction and amount of evolutionary change produced by two different simulated sets of net-selection gradients (beta), a size (isometric and allometric size) and a nonsize set. Using this approach it is possible to distinguish between the two hypotheses (indirect size evolution due to constraints or direct selection on size), because although both may produce an evolutionary response aligned with g(max), the amount of change produced by random selection operating through the variance/covariance patterns (constraints hypothesis) will be much smaller than that produced by selection on size (selection hypothesis). Furthermore, the alignment of simulated evolutionary changes with g(max) when selection is not on size is not as tight as when selection is actually on size, allowing a statistical test of whether a particular observed case of evolution along the line of least resistance is the result of selection along it or not. Also, with matrix diagonalization (principal components [PC]) it is possible to calculate directly the net-selection gradient on size alone (first PC [PC1]) by dividing the amount of phenotypic difference between any two populations by the amount of variation in PC1, which allows one to benchmark whether selection was on size or not

New constraints on ages of glasses proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating

New analyses have been performed in order to enhance the data-set on the independent ages of four glasses that have been proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating. The results are as follows. Moldavite - repeated (40)Ar/(39)Ar age determinations on samples from deposits from Bohemia and Moravia yielded an average of 14.34 +/- 0.08 Ma. This datum agrees with other recent determinations and is significantly younger than the (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 15.21 +/- 0.15 Ma determined in the early 1980s. Macusanite (Peru) -four K-Ar ages ranging from 5.44 +/- 0.06 to 5.72 +/- 0.12 Ma have been published previously. New (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages gave an average of 5.12 +/- 0.04 Ma. Plateau fission-track ages determined using the IRMM-540 certified glass and U and Th thin films for neutron fluence measurements agree better with these new (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages than the previously published ages. Roccastrada glass (Italy) - a new (40)Ar/(39)Ar age, 2.45 +/- 0.04 Ma, is consistent with previous determinations. The Quiron obsidian (Argentina) is a recently discovered glass that has been proposed as an additional reference material for its high spontaneous track density (around 100 000 cm(-2)). Defects that might produce spurious tracks are virtually absent. An independent (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 8.77 +/- 0.09 Ma was determined and is recommended for this glass. We believe that these materials, which will be distributed upon request to fission-track groups, will be very useful for testing system calibrations and experimental procedures.

Karyotypic conservatism in samples of Characidium cf. zebra (Teleostei, Characiformes, Crenuchidae): physical mapping of ribosomal genes and natural triploidy

Basic and molecular cytogenetic analyses were performed in specimens of Characidium cf. zebra from five collection sites located throughout the Tietê, Paranapanema and Paraguay river basins. The diploid number in specimens from all samples was 2n = 50 with a karyotype composed of 32 metacentric and 18 submetacentric chromosomes in both males and females. Constitutive heterochromatin was present at the centromeric regions of all chromosomes and pair 23, had additional interstitial heterochromatic blocks on its long arms. The nucleolar organizer regions (NORs) were located on the long arms of pair 23, while the 5S rDNA sites were detected in different chromosomes among the studied samples. One specimen from the Alambari river was a natural triploid and had two extra chromosomes, resulting in 2n = 77. The remarkable karyotypic similarity among the specimens of C. cf. zebra suggests a close evolutionary relationship. on the other hand, the distinct patterns of 5S rDNA distribution may be the result of gene flow constraints during their evolutionary history.

Some constraints on the modeling using the uranium isotopes U-238 and U-234 for dating groundwaters from Guarany aquifer, South America

Groundwaters from the Guarany aquifer located at the South American continent and sampled at four wells with described geological sections in São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically and isotopically analysed with two aims: to evaluate the quality of this important hydrological resource and to investigate the possibility of using the natural uranium isotopes U-234 and U-238 as a chronological tool, since the U-234/U-238 activity ratio and dissolved U content data in groundwater systems have generated models for dating purposes.

A constraints generator in structural determination by microcomputer

We present a new expert system: a constraints generator for structure determination of natural products. The constraints that the system furnishes are: skeleton (reliability: 95%), large substructures (reliability: 98%) and their associated assignments (reliability: 90%) This system is intended for structure determination of carbon-rich compounds (sesqui-, di- and triterpenes, sterols etc.) for which most structures generators are not very effective. We also present a new algorithm that can avoid the combinatorial explosion during subspectrum/substructure analysis.

Some constraints on the modelling using the uranium isotopes 238U and 234U for dating groundwaters from Guarany aquifer, South America

Groundwaters from the Guarany aquifer located at the South American continent and sampled at four wells with described geological sections in São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically and isotopically analysed with two aims: to evaluate the quality of this important hydrological resource and to investigate the possibility of using the natural uranium isotopes 234U and 238U as a chronological tool, since the 234U/238U activity ratio and dissolved U content data in groundwater systems have generated models for dating purposes.

SISTAX - An intelligent tool for recovering information on natural products chemistry

This work describes the development of a new program, named SISTAX, for the expert system SISTEMAT. This program allows anyone interested in chemotaxonomy to carry out an intelligent search for organic compounds in databases through chemical structures. When coupled with can efficient encoding system, the program recognizes skeletal types and can find any substructural constraints demanded by the user. An example of an application of the program to the diterpene class found in plants is described.

Financial constraints on economic development: Theory and policy for developing countries

This article contains a theoretical and policy analysis of the financial constraints on economic development in developing countries. Following a Keynesian interpretation, it concludes that financial policies are needed to relieve these constraints, given the natural tendency of financial systems to operate in ways that are dysfunctional to economic development. It then proposes three lines of policy that take account of the special characteristics of developing countries: resource allocation policies targeted at segments of strategic importance for economic and financial development; policies to control financial and external fragility; and compensatory policies of a more interventionist cast, in particular directed credit programmes for both public- and private-sector lending to complement resource allocation policies, and countercyclical regulatory barriers so that fragility can be better controlled.

Costs and benefits of reproducing under unfavorable conditions: an integrated view of ecological and physiological constraints in a cerrado shrub

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Partial melting within the lower crust – Constraints from bulk rock geochemical data and trace element mineral analyses of granulites and migmatites from Central Finland

This PhD thesis concerns geochemical constraints on recycling and partial melting of Archean continental crust. A natural example of such processes was found in the Iisalmi area of Central Finland. The rocks from this area are Middle to Late Archean in age and experienced metamorphism and partial melting between 2.7-2.63 Ga. The work is based on extensive field work. It is furthermore founded on bulk rock geochemical data as well as in-situ analyses of minerals. All geochemical data were obtained at the Institute of Geosciences, University of Mainz using X-ray fluorescence, solution ICP-MS and laser ablation-ICP-MS for bulk rock geochemical analyses. Mineral analyses were accomplished by electron microprobe and laser ablation ICP-MS. Fluid inclusions were studied by microscope on a heating-freezing-stage at the Geoscience Center, University Göttingen. Part I focuses on the development of a new analytical method for bulk rock trace element determination by laser ablation-ICP-MS using homogeneous glasses fused from rock powder on an Iridium strip heater. This method is applicable for mafic rock samples whose melts have low viscosities and homogenize quickly at temperatures of ~1200°C. Highly viscous melts of felsic samples prevent melting and homogenization at comparable temperatures. Fusion of felsic samples can be enabled by addition of MgO to the rock powder and adjustment of melting temperature and melting duration to the rock composition. Advantages of the fusion method are low detection limits compared to XRF analyses and avoidance of wet-chemical processing and use of strong acids as in solution ICP-MS as well as smaller sample volumes compared to the other methods. Part II of the thesis uses bulk rock geochemical data and results from fluid inclusion studies for discrimination of melting processes observed in different rock types. Fluid inclusion studies demonstrate a major change in fluid composition from CO2-dominated fluids in granulites to aqueous fluids in TTG gneisses and amphibolites. Partial melts were generated in the dry, CO2-rich environment by dehydration melting reactions of amphibole which in addition to tonalitic melts produced the anhydrous mineral assemblages of granulites (grt + cpx + pl ± amph or opx + cpx + pl + amph). Trace element modeling showed that mafic granulites are residues of 10-30 % melt extraction from amphibolitic precursor rocks. The maximum degree of melting in intermediate granulites was ~10 % as inferred from modal abundances of amphibole, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene. Carbonic inclusions are absent in upper-amphibolite facies migmatites whereas aqueous inclusion with up to 20 wt% NaCl are abundant. This suggests that melting within TTG gneisses and amphibolites took place in the presence of an aqueous fluid phase that enabled melting at the wet solidus at temperatures of 700-750°C. The strong disruption of pre-metamorphic structures in some outcrops suggests that the maximum amount of melt in TTG gneisses was ~25 vol%. The presence of leucosomes in all rock types is taken as the principle evidence for melt formation. However, mineralogical appearance as well as major and trace element composition of many leucosomes imply that leucosomes seldom represent frozen in-situ melts. They are better considered as remnants of the melt channel network, e.g. ways on which melts escaped from the system. Part III of the thesis describes how analyses of minerals from a specific rock type (granulite) can be used to determine partition coefficients between different minerals and between minerals and melt suitable for lower crustal conditions. The trace element analyses by laser ablation-ICP-MS show coherent distribution among the principal mineral phases independent of rock composition. REE contents in amphibole are about 3 times higher than REE contents in clinopyroxene from the same sample. This consistency has to be taken into consideration in models of lower crustal melting where amphibole is replaced by clinopyroxene in the course of melting. A lack of equilibrium is observed between matrix clinopyroxene / amphibole and garnet porphyroblasts which suggests a late stage growth of garnet and slow diffusion and equilibration of the REE during metamorphism. The data provide a first set of distribution coefficients of the transition metals (Sc, V, Cr, Ni) in the lower crust. In addition, analyses of ilmenite and apatite demonstrate the strong influence of accessory phases on trace element distribution. Apatite contains high amounts of REE and Sr while ilmenite incorporates about 20-30 times higher amounts of Nb and Ta than amphibole. Furthermore, trace element mineral analyses provide evidence for magmatic processes such as melt depletion, melt segregation, accumulation and fractionation as well as metasomatism having operated in this high-grade anatectic area.

"It was hard to come to mutual understanding..." - Multidimensionality of social learning processes in natural resource use in India, Africa and Latin America

Sustainable natural resource use requires that multiple actors reassess their situation in a systemic perspective. This can be conceptualised as a social learning process between actors from rural communities and the experts from outside organisations. A specifically designed workshop oriented towards a systemic view of natural resource use and the enhancement of mutual learning between local and external actors, provided the background for evaluating the potentials and constraints of intensified social learning processes. Case studies in rural communities in India, Bolivia, Peru and Mali showed that changes in the narratives of the participants of the workshop followed a similar temporal sequence relatively independently from their specific contexts. Social learning processes were found to be more likely to be successful if they 1) opened new space for communicative action, allowing for an intersubjective re-definition of the present situation, 2) contributed to rebalance the relationships between social capital and social, emotional and cognitive competencies within and between local and external actors.

Isotopic constraints on marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during the last deglaciation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

Constraints on barium isotope fractionation during aragonite precipitation by corals

We present a barium (Ba) isotope fractionation study of marine biogenic carbonates (aragonitic corals). The major aim is to provide first constraints on the Ba isotope fractionation between modern surface sea water and coral skele- ton. Mediterranean surface sea water was found to be enriched in the heavy Ba isotopes compared to previously reported values for marine open ocean authi- genic and terrestrial minerals. In aquarium experiments with a continuous sup- ply of Mediterranean surface water, the Ba isotopic composition of the bulk sample originating from cultured, aragonitic scleractinian corals (d137/134Ba between +0.16 +/- 0.12permil and +0.41 +/-0.12permil) were isotopically identical or lighter than that of the ambient Mediterranean surface sea water (d137/134Ba = +0.42 +/- 0.07permil, 2SD), which corresponds to an empirical maximum value of Ba isotope fractionation of D137/134Bacoral-seawater = -0.26 +/- 0.14permil at 25°C. This maximum Ba isotope fractionation is close and identical in direction to previous results from inorganic precipitation experiments with aragonite- structured pure BaCO3 (witherite). The variability in measured Ba concentrations of the cultured corals is at odds with a uniform distribution coefficient, DBa/Ca, thus indicating stronger vital effects on isotope than element discrimination. This observation supports the hypothesis that the Ba isotopic compositions of these corals do not result from simple equilibrium between the skeleton and the bulk sea water. Complementary coral samples from natural settings (tropical shallow-water corals from the Bahamas and Florida and cold- water corals from the Norwegian continental shelf) show an even wider range in d137/134Ba values (+0.14 +/- 0.08permil and +0.77 +/- 0.11permil), most probably due to additional spatial and/or temporal sea water heterogeneity, as indicated by recent publications.