Modelling and analysis of networked control strategies in smart power distribution grids: development of co-simulation tools

This thesis is focused on Smart Grid applications in medium voltage distribution networks. For the development of new applications it appears useful the availability of simulation tools able to model dynamic behavior of both the power system and the communication network. Such a co-simulation environment would allow the assessment of the feasibility of using a given network technology to support communication-based Smart Grid control schemes on an existing segment of the electrical grid and to determine the range of control schemes that different communications technologies can support. For this reason, is presented a co-simulation platform that has been built by linking the Electromagnetic Transients Program Simulator (EMTP v3.0) with a Telecommunication Network Simulator (OPNET-Riverbed v18.0). The simulator is used to design and analyze a coordinate use of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) for the voltage/var control (VVC) in distribution network. This thesis is focused control structure based on the use of phase measurement units (PMUs). In order to limit the required reinforcements of the communication infrastructures currently adopted by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs), the study is focused on leader-less MAS schemes that do not assign special coordinating rules to specific agents. Leader-less MAS are expected to produce more uniform communication traffic than centralized approaches that include a moderator agent. Moreover, leader-less MAS are expected to be less affected by limitations and constraint of some communication links. The developed co-simulator has allowed the definition of specific countermeasures against the limitations of the communication network, with particular reference to the latency and loss and information, for both the case of wired and wireless communication networks. Moreover, the co-simulation platform has bee also coupled with a mobility simulator in order to study specific countermeasures against the negative effects on the medium voltage/current distribution network caused by the concurrent connection of electric vehicles.

Modelling and improving maintenance decisions:Having foresight with simulation and artificial intelligence

Machine breakdowns are one of the main sources of disruption and throughput fluctuation in highly automated production facilities. One element in reducing this disruption is ensuring that the maintenance team responds correctly to machine failures. It is, however, difficult to determine the current practice employed by the maintenance team, let alone suggest improvements to it. 'Knowledge based improvement' is a methodology that aims to address this issue, by (a) eliciting knowledge on current practice, (b) evaluating that practice and (c) looking for improvements. The methodology, based on visual interactive simulation and artificial intelligence methods, and its application to a Ford engine assembly facility are described. Copyright © 2002 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Modelling and improving human decision making with simulation

Modelling human interaction and decision-making within a simulation presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a methodology that is being developed known as 'knowledge based improvement'. The purpose of this methodology is to elicit decision-making strategies via a simulation model and to represent them using artificial intelligence techniques. Further to this, having identified an individual's decision-making strategy, the methodology aims to look for improvements in decision-making. The methodology is being tested on unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford engine assembly plant

The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

Modelling and analysing human behaviour in a department store using discrete event and agent based simulation

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a very popular simulation technique in Operational Research. Recently, there has been the emergence of another technique, namely Agent Based Simulation (ABS). Although there is a lot of literature relating to DES and ABS, we have found less that focuses on exploring the capabilities of both in tackling human behaviour issues. In order to understand the gap between these two simulation techniques, therefore, our aim is to understand the distinctions between DES and ABS models with the real world phenomenon in modelling and simulating human behaviour. In achieving the aim, we have carried out a case study at a department store. Both DES and ABS models will be compared using the same problem domain which is concerning on management policy in a fitting room. The behaviour of staffs while working and customers’ satisfaction will be modelled for both models behaviour understanding.

Modelling and Uncertainty Quantification application to SA simulation codes in advanced SMR

In the framework of a global transition to a low-carbon energy mix, the interest in advanced nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has been growing at the international level. Due to the high level of maturity reached by Severe Accident Codes for currently operating rectors, their applicability to advanced SMRs is starting to be studied. Within the present work of thesis and in the framework of a collaboration between ENEA, UNIBO and IRSN, an ASTEC code model of a generic IRIS reactor has been developed. The simulation of a DBA sequence involving the operation of all the passive safety systems of the generic IRIS has been carried out to investigate the code model capability in the prediction of the thermal-hydraulics characterizing an integral SMR adopting a passive mitigation strategy. The following simulation of 4 BDBAs sequences explores the applicability of Severe Accident Codes to advance SMRs in beyond-design and core-degradation conditions. The uncertainty affecting a code simulation can be estimated by using the method of Input Uncertainty Propagation, whose application has been realized through the RAVEN-ASTEC coupling and implementation on an HPC platform. This probabilistic methodology has been employed in a study of the uncertainty affecting the passive safety system operation in the DBA simulation of ASTEC, providing a further characterization of the thermal-hydraulics of this sequence. The application of the Uncertainty Quantification method to early core-melt phenomena has been investigated in the framework of a BEPU analysis of the ASTEC simulation of the QUENCH test-6 experiment. A possible solution to the encountered challenges has been proposed through the application of a Limit Surface search algorithm.

Design, modelling and analysis of a six component force balance for hypervelocity wind tunnel testing

A combination of modelling and analysis techniques was used to design a six component force balance. The balance was designed specifically for the measurement of impulsive aerodynamic forces and moments characteristic of hypervelocity shock tunnel testing using the stress wave force measurement technique. Aerodynamic modelling was used to estimate the magnitude and distribution of forces and finite element modelling to determine the mechanical response of proposed balance designs. Simulation of balance performance was based on aerodynamic loads and mechanical responses using convolution techniques. Deconvolution was then used to assess balance performance and to guide further design modifications leading to the final balance design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review and future directions in the modelling and control of continuous drum granulation

Many granulation plants operate well below design capacity, suffering from high recycle rates and even periodic instabilities. This behaviour cannot be fully predicted using the present models. The main objective of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status of model development for granulation processes and suggest future directions for research and development. The end-use of the models is focused on the optimal design and control of granulation plants using the improved predictions of process dynamics. The development of novel models involving mechanistically based structural switching methods is proposed in the paper. A number of guidelines are proposed for the selection of control relevant model structures. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

In the last 7 years, a method has been developed to analyse building energy performance using computer simulation, in Brazil. The method combines analysis of building design plans and documentation, walk-through visits, electric and thermal measurements and the use of an energy simulation tool (DOE-2.1E code), The method was used to model more than 15 office buildings (more than 200 000 m(2)), located between 12.5degrees and 27.5degrees South latitude. The paper describes the basic methodology, with data for one building and presents additional results for other six cases. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools

Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco's coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.

Modelling and Control of Freeway Traffic

This paper presents the most recent developments of the Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS). The SITS is based on a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions in an urban or non-urban network. In order to analyse the quality of the microscopic traffic simulator SITS a benchmark test was performed. A dynamical analysis of several traffic phenomena, applying a new modelling formalism based on the embedding of statistics and Laplace transform, is then addressed. The paper presents also a new traffic control concept applied to a freeway traffic system.