Determination of millennial-scale climate variability based on alkenones in the western Atlantic Ocean

High-resolution records of alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures and elemental Ti/Ca ratios from a sediment core retrieved off northeastern Brazil (4° S) reveal short-term climate variability throughout the past 63,000 a. Large pulses of terrigenous sediment discharge, caused by increased precipitation in the Brazilian hinterland, coincide with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas period. Terrigenous input maxima related to Heinrich events H6-H2 are characterized by rapid cooling of surface water ranging between 0.5 and 2° C. This signature is consistent with a climate model experiment where a reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and related North Atlantic cooling causes intensification of NE trade winds and a southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in enhanced precipitation off northeastern Brazil. During deglaciation the surface temperature evolution at the core site predominantly followed the Antarctic warming trend, including a cooling, prior to the Younger Dryas period. An abrupt temperature rise preceding the onset of the Bølling/Allerød transition agrees with model experiments suggesting a Southern Hemisphere origin for the abrupt resumption of the AMOC during deglaciation caused by Southern Ocean warming and associated with northward flow anomalies of the South Atlantic western boundary current.

A millennial record of environmental change in peat deposits from the Misten bog (East Belgium)

In this study, palaeoenvironmental changes recorded in the top metre of a peat profile (Misten bog, East Belgium) were investigated using a multiproxy approach. Proxies include bulk density, Ti and Si content, pollen, macrofossils, d13C on specific Sphagnum stems, and d13C–d18O on Sphagnum leaves. A high-resolution chronology was generated using 210Pb measurements and 22 14C AMS dates on carefully selected Sphagnum macrofossils. d13C only records large change in mire surface wetness. This is partly due to the fact that the core was taken from the edge of a hummock, which may make it difficult to track small isotopic changes. The d13C signal seems to be dependent upon the Sphagnum species composition. For example, a change between Sphagnum section Cuspidata towards Sphagnum imbricatum causes a significant drop in the d13C values. On the whole, the C and O isotopes record two shallow pool phases during the 8th–9th and the 13th centuries. Pollen and atmospheric soil dust (ASD) fluxes records increased human occupation in the area. There may be some climatic signals in the ASD flux, but they are difficult to decipher from the increasing human impact (land clearance, agriculture) during the last millennium. The variations in the proxies are not always synchronous, suggesting different triggering factors (temperature, wetness, windiness) for each proxy. This study also emphasizes that, compared to studies dealing with pollution using geochemical proxies, palaeoclimatic inferences from peat bogs need as many proxies as possible, together with highly accurate and precise age-models, in order to better understand climate variability and their consequences during the Holocene.

Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is investigated in a millennial control simulation with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. An oscillatory mode with approximately 60 years period and characteristics similar to observations is identified with the aid of three-dimensional temperature and salinity joint empirical orthogonal function analysis. The mode explains 30 % of variability on centennial and shorter timescales in the upper 2,000 m of the North Atlantic. It is associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of ±1–2 Sv and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of ±0.2 °C. AMV in KCM results from an out-of-phase interaction between horizontal and vertical ocean circulation, coupled through Irminger Sea convection. Wintertime convection in this region is mainly controlled by salinity anomalies transported by the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Increased (decreased) dense water formation in this region leads to a stronger (weaker) AMOC after 15 years, and this in turn leads to a weaker (stronger) SPG after another 15 years. The key role of salinity variations in the subpolar North Atlantic for AMV is confirmed in a 1,000 year long simulation with salinity restored to model climatology: No low frequency variations in convection are simulated, and the 60 year mode of variability is absent.

Mean climate and variability of the atmosphere and ocean on an aquaplanet

Numerical experiments are described that pertain to the climate of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice system in the absence of land, driven by modern-day orbital and CO2 forcing. Millennial time-scale simulations yield a mean state in which ice caps reach down to 55° of latitude and both the atmosphere and ocean comprise eastward- and westward-flowing zonal jets, whose structure is set by their respective baroclinic instabilities. Despite the zonality of the ocean, it is remarkably efficient at transporting heat meridionally through the agency of Ekman transport and eddy-driven subduction. Indeed the partition of heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean is much the same as the present climate, with the ocean dominating in the Tropics and the atmosphere in the mid–high latitudes. Variability of the system is dominated by the coupling of annular modes in the atmosphere and ocean. Stochastic variability inherent to the atmospheric jets drives variability in the ocean. Zonal flows in the ocean exhibit decadal variability, which, remarkably, feeds back to the atmosphere, coloring the spectrum of annular variability. A simple stochastic model can capture the essence of the process. Finally, it is briefly reviewed how the aquaplanet can provide information about the processes that set the partition of heat transport and the climate of Earth.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

The reconstruction of paleoclimate variability in Northern Germany, during marine isotope stage 5

In order to obtain a better understanding about the influence of post-depositional diagenesis on speleothem 230Th/U-ages and paleoclimate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 in northern Germany, four stalagmites from the Riesenberghöhle (RBH) were investigated by thin section analysis, 230Th/U-dating as well as stable oxygen and carbon isotope and laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) trace element analysis. The RBH is located in the Weser Hills and is one of the northernmost limestone caves in Germany.rnMulti collector (MC) ICPMS 230Th/U-ages and thin section analysis of the RBH stalagmites shows that some growth phases of the stalagmites were diagenetically altered after their deposition. The impact of post-depositional diagenesis (PDD) on the 230Th/U-ages is modeled, and potential processes leading to PDD are discussed. In this context, it is suggested that PDD may be induced by rapid climate change at the inception of the GIS.rnDespite of the dating uncertainties resulting from PDD, 230Th/U-dating shows that the RBH stalagmites grew during the Eemian and most of the Greenland Interstadials (GIS) during MIS 5. Thus, the growth phases of the RBH stalagmites might be related to a reorganization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The stable isotope (δ13C and δ18O) and the trace element variability of the stalagmites reflects rapid changes of past temperature and precipitation on millennial and sub-millennial timescales. These past climate changes can be amplified by orbitally forced variations of the July solar insolation at 65°N.

Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka) and characterized by short Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Recent and new results obtained on the EPICA and NorthGRIP ice cores now precisely describe the rapid variations of Antarctic and Greenland temperature during MIS 5 (73.5–123 ka), a time period corresponding to relatively high sea level. The results display a succession of abrupt events associated with long Greenland InterStadial phases (GIS) enabling us to highlight a sub-millennial scale climatic variability depicted by (i) short-lived and abrupt warming events preceding some GIS (precursor-type events) and (ii) abrupt warming events at the end of some GIS (rebound-type events). The occurrence of these sub-millennial scale events is suggested to be driven by the insolation at high northern latitudes together with the internal forcing of ice sheets. Thanks to a recent NorthGRIP-EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) common timescale over MIS 5, the bipolar sequence of climatic events can be established at millennial to sub-millennial timescale. This shows that for extraordinary long stadial durations the accompanying Antarctic warming amplitude cannot be described by a simple linear relationship between the two as expected from the bipolar seesaw concept. We also show that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907–2008

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N–22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380–730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907–2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011–2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.