An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

A descentralização das políticas de desenvolvimento rural: uma análise da experiência do Rio Grande do Norte

MATOS FILHO, João. A descentralização das Políticas de desenvolvimento rural - uma análise da experiência do Rio Grande do Norte. 2002. 259f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Econômicas)– Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 2002.

Two-way regionalized classification of multivariate datasets and its application to the assessment of hydrodynamic dispersion

Zones of mixing between shallow groundwaters of different composition were unravelled by two-way regionalized classification, a technique based on correspondence analysis (CA), cluster analysis (ClA) and discriminant analysis (DA), aided by gridding, map-overlay and contouring tools. The shallow groundwaters are from a granitoid plutonite in the Funda o region (central Portugal). Correspondence analysis detected three natural clusters in the working dataset: 1, weathering; 2, domestic effluents; 3, fertilizers. Cluster analysis set an alternative distribution of the samples by the three clusters. Group memberships obtained by correspondence analysis and by cluster analysis were optimized by discriminant analysis, gridded memberships as follows: codes 1, 2 or 3 were used when classification by correspondence analysis and cluster analysis produced the same results; code 0 when the grid node was first assigned to cluster 1 and then to cluster 2 or vice versa (mixing between weathering and effluents); code 4 in the other cases (mixing between agriculture and the other influences). Code-3 areas were systematically surrounded by code-4 areas, an observation attributed to hydrodynamic dispersion. Accordingly, the extent of code-4 areas in two orthogonal directions was assumed proportional to the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities of local soils. The results (0.7-16.8 and 0.4-4.3 m, respectively) are acceptable at the macroscopic scale. The ratios between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities (1.2-11.1) are also in agreement with results obtained by other studies.

O uso de textos polêmicos em sala de aula: formação e prática docente

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, it examines how Discourses, socially accepted ways of speaking, listening, writing, and reading that illustrate individuals' memberships in specific social groups (Gee, 2008), could influence teachers' use or censorship of polemic text in the classroom. Second, this article presents a review of the research literature about teachers' inclusion of culturally diverse themes in their classrooms. For example, it describes professors' use of children´s books about racism with new teachers. It also outlines suggestions for guiding discussions that respect students' heritage, build critical literacy, and support culturally responsive teaching pedagogies.

Phi Beta Delta Presentation - Lawrence Bruner

A year ago I had the privilege of being inducted into Phi Beta Delta, and at that time I was invited to speak at the next induction ceremony, which it is my pleasure to do today. I am delighted to have this opportunity to congratulate our scholarship recipient, our new inductees, Peter Gleick, President of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, and Merlyn Carlson, Director of the Nebraska Department of Agriculture and a member of the Governor's cabinet, on their honorary memberships in the society. I want to acknowledge Harriet Turner, Director of International affairs, for her fine work on behalf of the university and us all, and I want to thank all members of this society of international scholars for the important work you do, not only for Nebraska but, indeed, for our world.

NGC 2782: a merger remnant with young stars in its gaseous tidal tail

We have searched for young star-forming regions around the merger remnant NGC 2782. By using Galaxy Evolution Explorer far-ultraviolet and near-ultraviolet imaging and H i data we found seven ultraviolet sources, located at distances greater than 26 kpc from the centre of NGC 2782, and coinciding with its western H i tidal tail. These regions were resolved in several smaller systems when Gemini/Gemini multi-object spectrograph (GMOS) r-band images were used. We compared the observed colours to stellar population synthesis models and found that these objects have ages of similar to 1 to 11 Myr and masses ranging from 103.9 to 104.6 M circle dot. By using Gemini/GMOS spectroscopic data we confirm memberships and derive high metallicities for three of the young regions in the tail (12+log(O/H) = 8.74 +/- 0.20, 8.81 +/- 0.20 and 8.78 +/- 0.20). These metallicities are similar to the value presented by the nuclear region of NGC 2782 and also similar to the value presented for an object located close to the main body of NGC 2782. The high metallicities measured for the star-forming regions in the gaseous tidal tail of NGC 2782 could be explained if they were formed out of highly enriched gas which was once expelled from the centre of the merging galaxies when the system collided. An additional possibility is that the tail has been a nursery of a few generations of young stellar systems which ultimately polluted this medium with metals, further enriching the already pre-enriched gas ejected to the tail when the galaxies collided.

Multimembership and Identity in Writing Centers and in Industry: Examining the Work of Reconciliation in the Michigan Tech Multiliteracies Center and at Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Writing center scholarship and practice have approached how issues of identity influence communication but have not fully considered ways of making identity a key feature of writing center research or practice. This dissertation suggests a new way to view identity -- through an experience of "multimembership" or the consideration that each identity is constructed based on the numerous community memberships that make up that identity. Etienne Wenger (1998) proposes that a fully formed identity is ultimately impossible, but it is through the work of reconciling memberships that important individual and community transformations can occur. Since Wenger also argues that reconciliation "is the most significant challenge" for those moving into new communities of practice (or, "engage in a process of collective learning in a shared domain of human endeavor" (4)), yet this challenge often remains tacit, this dissertation examines and makes explicit how this important work is done at two different research sites - a university writing center (the Michigan Tech Multiliteracies Center) and at a multinational corporation (Kimberly-Clark Corporation). Drawing extensively on qualitative ethnographic methods including interview transcriptions, observations, and case studies, as well as work from scholars in writing center studies (Grimm, Denney, Severino), literacy studies (New London Group, Street, Gee), composition (Horner and Trimbur, Canagarajah, Lu), rhetoric (Crowley), and identity studies (Anzaldua, Pratt), I argue that, based on evidence from the two sites, writing centers need to educate tutors to not only take identity into consideration, but to also make individuals' reconciliation work more visible, as it will continue once students and tutors leave the university. Further, as my research at the Michigan Tech Multiliteracies Center and Kimberly-Clark will show, communities can (and should) change their practices in ways that account for reconciliation work as identity, communication, and learning are inextricably bound up with one another.

MODULARITY BASED FUZZY COMMUNITY DETECTION IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

Fuzzy community detection is to identify fuzzy communities in a network, which are groups of vertices in the network such that the membership of a vertex in one community is in [0,1] and that the sum of memberships of vertices in all communities equals to 1. Fuzzy communities are pervasive in social networks, but only a few works have been done for fuzzy community detection. Recently, a one-step forward extension of Newman’s Modularity, the most popular quality function for disjoint community detection, results into the Generalized Modularity (GM) that demonstrates good performance in finding well-known fuzzy communities. Thus, GMis chosen as the quality function in our research. We first propose a generalized fuzzy t-norm modularity to investigate the effect of different fuzzy intersection operators on fuzzy community detection, since the introduction of a fuzzy intersection operation is made feasible by GM. The experimental results show that the Yager operator with a proper parameter value performs better than the product operator in revealing community structure. Then, we focus on how to find optimal fuzzy communities in a network by directly maximizing GM, which we call it Fuzzy Modularity Maximization (FMM) problem. The effort on FMM problem results into the major contribution of this thesis, an efficient and effective GM-based fuzzy community detection method that could automatically discover a fuzzy partition of a network when it is appropriate, which is much better than fuzzy partitions found by existing fuzzy community detection methods, and a crisp partition of a network when appropriate, which is competitive with partitions resulted from the best disjoint community detections up to now. We address FMM problem by iteratively solving a sub-problem called One-Step Modularity Maximization (OSMM). We present two approaches for solving this iterative procedure: a tree-based global optimizer called Find Best Leaf Node (FBLN) and a heuristic-based local optimizer. The OSMM problem is based on a simplified quadratic knapsack problem that can be solved in linear time; thus, a solution of OSMM can be found in linear time. Since the OSMM algorithm is called within FBLN recursively and the structure of the search tree is non-deterministic, we can see that the FMM/FBLN algorithm runs in a time complexity of at least O (n2). So, we also propose several highly efficient and very effective heuristic algorithms namely FMM/H algorithms. We compared our proposed FMM/H algorithms with two state-of-the-art community detection methods, modified MULTICUT Spectral Fuzzy c-Means (MSFCM) and Genetic Algorithm with a Local Search strategy (GALS), on 10 real-world data sets. The experimental results suggest that the H2 variant of FMM/H is the best performing version. The H2 algorithm is very competitive with GALS in producing maximum modularity partitions and performs much better than MSFCM. On all the 10 data sets, H2 is also 2-3 orders of magnitude faster than GALS. Furthermore, by adopting a simply modified version of the H2 algorithm as a mutation operator, we designed a genetic algorithm for fuzzy community detection, namely GAFCD, where elite selection and early termination are applied. The crossover operator is designed to make GAFCD converge fast and to enhance GAFCD’s ability of jumping out of local minimums. Experimental results on all the data sets show that GAFCD uncovers better community structure than GALS.

Volunteering in sport clubs

Volunteers are the most important resource for non-profit sport clubs seeking to bolster their viability (e.g. sporting programs). Although many people do voluntary work in sport clubs, stable voluntary engagement can no longer be granted. This difficulty is confirmed by existing research across various European countries. From a club management point of view, a detailed understanding of how to attract volunteers and retain them in the long term is becoming a high priority. The purpose of this study is (1) to analyse the influence of individual characteristics and corresponding organisational conditions on volunteering in sports clubs as well as (2) to examine the decision-making processes in relation to implement effective strategies for recruiting volunteers. For the first perspective a multi-level framework for the investigation of the factors of voluntary engagement in sports clubs is developed. The individual and context factors are estimated in different multi-level models based on a sample of n = 1,434 sport club members from 36 sport clubs in Switzerland. Results indicate that volunteering is not just an outcome of individual characteristics such as lower workloads, higher income, children belonging to the sport club, longer club memberships, or a strong commitment to the club. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions; volunteering is more probable in rural sports clubs whereas growth-oriented goals in clubs have a destabilising effect. Concerning decision-making processes an in-depth analysis of recruitment practices for volunteers was conducted in nine selected sport clubs (case study design) based on the garbage can model. Results show that the decision-making processes are generally characterised by a reactive approach in which dominant actors try to handle personnel problems of recruitment in the administration and sport domains through routine formal committee work and informal networks. In addition, it proved possible to develop a typology that deliver an overview of different decision-making practices in terms of the specific interplay of the relevant components of process control (top-down vs. bottom-up) and problem processing (situational vs. systematic). Based on the findings some recommendations for volunteer management in sport clubs are worked out.

Does the (structural) context matter? Analysing individual and structural factors of members’ commitment to sports clubs

Introduction: Over the last decades, Swiss sports clubs have lost their "monopoly" in the market for sports-related services and increasingly are in competition with other sports providers. For many sport clubs long-term membership cannot be seen as a matter of course. Current research on sports clubs in Switzerland – as well as for other European countries – confirms the increasing difficulties in achieving long-term member commitment. Looking at recent findings of the Swiss sport clubs report (Lamprecht, Fischer & Stamm, 2012), it can be noted, that a decrease in memberships does not equally affect all clubs. There are sports clubs – because of their specific situational and structural conditions – that have few problems with member fluctuation, while other clubs show considerable declines in membership. Therefore, a clear understanding of individual and structural factors that trigger and sustain member commitment would help sports clubs to tackle this problem more effectively. This situation poses the question: What are the individual and structural determinants that influence the tendency to continue or to quit the membership? Methods: Existing research has extensively investigated the drivers of members’ commitment at an individual level. As commitment of members usually occurs within an organizational context, the characteristics of the organisation should be also considered. However, this context has been largely neglected in current research. This presentation addresses both the individual characteristics of members and the corresponding structural conditions of sports clubs resulting in a multi-level framework for the investigation of the factors of members’ commitment in sports clubs. The multilevel analysis grant a adequate handling of hierarchically structured data (e.g., Hox, 2002). The influences of both the individual and context level on the stability of memberships are estimated in multi-level models based on a sample of n = 1,434 sport club members from 36 sports clubs. Results: Results of these multi-level analyses indicate that commitment of members is not just an outcome of individual characteristics, such as strong identification with the club, positively perceived communication and cooperation, satisfaction with sports clubs’ offers, or voluntary engagement. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions: stable memberships are more probable in rural sports clubs, and in clubs that explicitly support sociability, whereas sporting-success oriented goals in clubs have a destabilizing effect. Discussion/Conclusion: The proposed multi-level framework and the multi-level analysis can open new perspectives for research concerning commitment of members to sports clubs and other topics and problems of sport organisation research, especially in assisting to understand individual behavior within organizational contexts. References: Hox, J. J. (2002). Multilevel analysis: Techniques and applications. Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A., & Stamm, H.-P. (2012). Die Schweizer Sportvereine – Strukturen, Leistungen, Herausforderungen. Zurich: Seismo.

Risk management at board level: a practical guide for board members

isk Management today has moved from being the topic of top level conferences and media discussions to being a permanent issue in the board and top management agenda. Several new directives and regulations in Switzerland, Germany and EU make it obligatory for the firms to have a risk management strategy and transparently disclose the risk management process to their stakeholders. Shareholders, insurance providers, banks, media, analysts, employees, suppliers and other stakeholders expect the board members to be pro-active in knowing the critical risks facing their organization and provide them with a reasonable assurance vis-à-vis the management of those risks. In this environment however, the lack of standards and training opportunities makes this task difficult for board members. This book with the help of real life examples, analysis of drivers, interpretation of the Swiss legal requirements, and information based on international benchmarks tries to reach out to the forward looking leaders of today's businesses. The authors have collectively brought their years of scientific and practical experience in risk management, Swiss law and board memberships together to provide the board members practical solutions in risk management. The desire is that this book will clear the fear regarding risk management from the minds of the company leadership and help them in making risk savvy decisions in quest to achieve their strategic objectives.

Computer Simulation of Crowd Dynamics and Destructive Crowd Behavior

The social processes that lead to destructive behavior in celebratory crowds can be studied through an agent-based computer simulation. Riots are an increasingly common outcome of sports celebrations, and pose the potential for harm to participants, bystanders, property, and the reputation of the groups with whom participants are associated. Rioting cannot necessarily be attributed to the negative emotions of individuals, such as anger, rage, frustration and despair. For instance, the celebratory behavior (e.g., chanting, cheering, singing) during UConn’s “Spring Weekend” and after the 2004 NCAA Championships resulted in several small fires and overturned cars. Further, not every individual in the area of a riot engages in violence, and those who do, do not do so continuously. Instead, small groups carry out the majority of violent acts in relatively short-lived episodes. Agent-based computer simulations are an ideal method for modeling complex group-level social phenomena, such as celebratory gatherings and riots, which emerge from the interaction of relatively “simple” individuals. By making simple assumptions about individuals’ decision-making and behaviors and allowing actors to affect one another, behavioral patterns emerge that cannot be predicted by the characteristics of individuals. The computer simulation developed here models celebratory riot behavior by repeatedly evaluating a single algorithm for each individual, the inputs of which are affected by the characteristics of nearby actors. Specifically, the simulation assumes that (a) actors possess 1 of 5 distinct social identities (group memberships), (b) actors will congregate with actors who possess the same identity, (c) the degree of social cohesion generated in the social context determines the stability of relationships within groups, and (d) actors’ level of aggression is affected by the aggression of other group members. Not only does this simulation provide a systematic investigation of the effects of the initial distribution of aggression, social identification, and cohesiveness on riot outcomes, but also an analytic tool others may use to investigate, visualize and predict how various individual characteristics affect emergent crowd behavior.

Redes de información y conocimiento climatológico en el mundo hispánico del siglo XVIII

Durante la Ilustración, el imperio español alcanzó su máxima amplitud y las instituciones oficiales incrementaron su apoyo a las ciencias. Para defender sus fronteras y ejercer con eficacia el poder político, económico y religioso, la Corona y la Iglesia necesitaban obtener información precisa --incluida la climatológica-- de las posesiones españolas y de los pobladores de éstas. Fueron varios los procedimientos empleados para ello: sistema de cuestionarios y relaciones geográficas, estudios medico-topográficos, visitas e inspecciones oficiales, expediciones político-científicas, correspondencia epistolar, artículos periodísticos, etc. Dichos procedimientos fueron aplicados por redes de informadores cuyas actuaciones se basaban en la división del trabajo, el reparto de colaboradores en diferentes lugares, el uso de códigos de comunicación comprensibles, el envío de los resultados a los superiores jerárquicos y la toma de decisiones por las autoridades competentes. Las redes de información estaban sometidas a dictámenes que normalizaban su creación y continuidad temporal, daban forma a su estructura interna, especificaban sus cometidos y obligaban a cumplir protocolos y plazos. En su seno se idearon planes de investigación integrados en el estudio general de la Tierra, el ser humano y la cultura. El beneficio de las actuaciones de sus miembros se plasmó en cubrir grandes ámbitos geográficos con el consiguiente ahorro de tiempo, esfuerzos y medios. En sus correspondientes contextos, los miembros de las redes efectuaron estudios climatológicos conforme a intereses, imposiciones y circunstancias específicas. Así, los médicos se interesaron por las condiciones climáticas que influían en la salud humana; los funcionarios reales y los ingenieros militares describieron los climas locales y regionales aptos para el fomento y el control político, jurídico y educativo de los habitantes de los territorios hispánicos; los expedicionarios estudiaron las interacciones entre los fenómenos naturales y las influencias de los accidentes geográficos en los climas; los clérigos se interesaron por los aspectos estéticos, apologéticos y contemplativos de los climas; finalmente, en la prensa de la época se publicaron registros meteorológicos periódicos y trabajos climatológicos varios. En definitiva, el saber climatológico en el mundo hispánico ilustrado aportó algunos rasgos esenciales a la climatología en una etapa pre-fundacional de esta disciplina. Dichos rasgos se desarrollaron generalmente en una escala local o regional y se refirieron a los siguientes asuntos: el calor como principal agente de las modificaciones atmosféricas, de la formación de vapor acuoso y de las precipitaciones; la influencia del suelo en el aumento de humedad y calor en el aire; el poder de los vientos para trasladar de un lugar a otro el frío o el calor, el vapor de agua, los fenómenos atmosféricos y los agentes responsables de las enfermedades contagiosas; las propiedades del aire atmosférico y su capacidad para interaccionar con el medio ambiente; la condición estática y repetitiva de los climas, si bien se admitió que dichos fenómenos podían sufrir modificaciones; la corroboración experimental de las diferencias climáticas entre las zonas tropicales y medias del planeta; la refutación de que la naturaleza americana y sus habitantes eran inferiores a los europeos; y la demostración de que los principios rectores de los fenómenos físicos del Viejo y el Nuevo Mundo eran idénticos. Desde el último tercio del siglo XVIII, los documentos producidos por los componentes de las redes de información incluyeron datos meteorológicos. Pero no siempre se emplearon los mismos instrumentos de medida ni se siguieron los mismos protocolos de indagación en idénticas condiciones. Además, y salvo excepciones, los períodos durante los cuales se recabaron datos atmosféricos fueron relativamente cortos, y los expertos no efectuaron las mismas operaciones aritméticas con los parámetros. Por esta razón, y por la orientación utilitaria de los ilustrados hispánicos, el saber climatológico no obtuvo en el período y en el ámbito geográfico considerados resultados teóricos apreciables; en cambio, dio lugar a una gran cantidad de actividades prácticas con aplicaciones a la medicina, la agricultura, la náutica, el fomento, la prevención de riesgos naturales, etc. La principal utilidad de este trabajo consiste en servir de complemento a los procedimientos actualmente en uso en historia de la hidrología y en climatología histórica. ABSTRACT During the Enlightenment, the Spanish Empire achieved its highest length and State institutions increased their support to sciences. In order to defend their frontiers and to exercise political, economical and religious power, the Crown and the Church needed exact information --including the climatologic one-- about its possessions and its habitants. Some of the procedures employed to get that objective were: system of questionnaires and geographic relations, medical-topographic studies, official visits and inspections, political-scientific expeditions, direct mail, journalistic articles, etc. Those procedures were applied by informers´ networks which obtained, manned and transmitted every kind of data about the natural and moral reality of the Hispanic territories; their actions were based on the division of tasks, the distribution of collaborators at several places, the use of understandable communication codes and the sending of results to the hierarchical superiors; after, the competent authorities took decisions. The information networks were subjected to rules witch regulated its creation, temporary continuity, interior structure, objectives, protocols and periods. Their memberships invented plans about the general research of the Earth, the human beings and the culture; and they contributed to get benefits because of covering large geographic frames and economizing time, effort and means. According to their specifics contexts, concerns, impositions and circumstances, the informers performed climatologic tasks. Thus, the physicians were interested in the climatic conditions which affected to human health; the royal officers and military engineers described the most propitious climates to patronage and political, lawful and educative control of inhabitants of Hispanic territories; the participants in politic-scientific expeditions studied the interactions among natural phenomena and the influence of geographic aspects on the climate; the clergymen underlined the esthetic, apologetic and contemplative face of climates; finally, in the newspapers were published a lot of meteorological data and climatologic works. So, the climatologic knowledge in the Hispanic enlightened world added these essential aspects --referred in a local and regional area-- during the pre-foundational epoch of the climatology: the heat as first agent of atmospheric modifications, aqueous vapor and precipitations; the influx of the land in the increment of humidity and heat of the air; the power of the winds to convey the cold, the heat, the aqueous vapor, the atmospheric phenomena and the agents which caused contagious maladies; the properties of the air and its faculty to mediate with the environs; the static and repetitive condition of the climate and its possibility to experience change; the experimental confirmation of climatic varieties between tropical and central areas of the planet; the negation of the inferiority of the American nature and inhabitants; the demonstration about the equality of the rules which conducted physical phenomena in the Old and the New world. Since the last third part of the eighteenth century, the documents produced by the members of the networks included meteorological data. But the informers were not used to employ the same measure instruments and homogeneous protocols completion in the same conditions. Exceptions besides, the times of taking atmospheric data, usually were very short; and the experts did not carry out the same arithmetical operations with parameters. Because of this reason and the utilitarian guidance of the informers, during the Hispanic Enlightenment, it was not possible to obtain theoretic conclusions about climatologic knowledge; but there were a lot of practical activities applied to Medicine, Agriculture, Navigation, patronage, prevention of natural risks, etc. The main utility of this work consist in favoring the present procedures of the History of Hydrology and Historic Climatology.

Comparison of Couples' Normal Life Cycle Development and Intimacy Distance Regulation

When conceptualizing healthy couple relationships, it is tempting to use a simple framework as a panacea. Unfortunately, this desire for simplicity can lead to a narrow and naive perspective. Individuals interact and are influenced by a variety of factors (i.e., various social systems, multiple context memberships, complex interconnecting exchanges, etc.); consequently, it is necessary to guard against an overly narrow interpretation when examining healthy couple interactions. It is the purpose of this paper to develop one aspect of a complex perspective for healthy couple relationships by comparing couple life cycle development with couple intimacy-distance regulation.

Towards a new design of South American integration? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series, Special Issue January 2013

The design of South American integration is becoming different. This has been quite common in the trajectory of over six decades of initiatives aimed at generating institutional frameworks to facilitate regional integration. However, even when it has become apparent that the previous design is undergoing a new process of change, it would be difficult to predict for how long the one that is beginning to take shape will remain in effect. The experience of recent decades suggests great caution in forecasts that are optimistic about any eventual longevity. Several factors are contributing to this redesign. Some are external to the region while others are endogenous. The combination of these factors will influence the future design of South American integration. If past lessons are correctly capitalized and certain advantage is derived from the leeway provided by a decentralized international system with multiple options, we can anticipate that what will predominate in the region will be multidimensional integration agreements (with political and economic objectives at the same time) and with cross-memberships and commitments. If this were the case, the actual impact on regional governance, social and productive integration and the competitive insertion at a global scale will depend largely on the following factors: the quality and sustainability of the strategy for development and global and regional insertion of each country; the combination of a reasonable degree of flexibility and predictability in the commitments made and their corresponding ground rule, and the density of the network of cross-interests that can be achieved as a result of the respective regional integration agreements, reflected in multiple transnational social and production networks.