928 resultados para law of large numbers


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The third in a series of five-yearly aerial surveys for dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf was conducted in July 1999. The first two surveys provided evidence of an apparently stable population of dugongs, with similar to 1000 animals in each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef, and 10000 in Shark Bay. We report estimates of less than 200 for each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef and similar to 14000 for Shark Bay. This is an apparent overall increase in the dugong population over this whole region, but with a distributional shift of animals to the south. The most plausible hypothesis to account for a large component of this apparent population shift is that animals in Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef moved to Shark Bay, most likely after Tropical Cyclone Vance impacted available dugong forage in the northern habitat. Bias associated with survey estimate methodology, and normal changes in population demographics may also have contributed to the change. The movement of large numbers of dugongs over the scale we suggest has important management implications. First, such habitat-driven shifts in regional abundance will need to be incorporated in assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas that aim to protect dugongs and their habitat. Second, in circumstances where aerial surveys are used to estimate relative trends in abundance of dugongs, animal movements of the type we propose could lead to errors in interpretation.

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We report 3 au resolution imaging observations of the protoplanetary disk aroundTW Hya at 145 and 233 GHz with the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array.Our observations revealed two deep gaps (~25-50 %) at 22 and 37 au and shallowergaps (a few %) at 6, 28, and 44 au, as recently reported by Andrews et al. (2016). Thecentral hole with a radius of  3 au was also marginally resolved. The most remarkablefinding is that the spectral index α(R) between bands 4 and 6 peaks at the 22 au gap.The derived power-law index of the dust opacity β(R) is  ~1.7 at the 22 au gap anddecreases toward the disk center to ~0. The most prominent gap at 22 au could becaused by the gravitational interaction between the disk and an unseen planet with amass of ≲1.5 MNeptune although other origins may be possible. The planet-induced gap is supported by the fact that β(R) is enhanced at the 22 au gap, indicating a deficitof mm-sized grains within the gap due to dust filtration by a planet.

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This article intends to contribute to the reflection on the Educational Statistics as being source for the researches on History of Education. The main concern was to reveal the way Educational Statistics related to the period from 1871 to 1931 were produced, in central government. Official reports - from the General Statistics Directory - and Statistics yearbooks released by that department were analyzed and, on this analysis, recommendations and definitions to perform the works were sought. By rending problematic to the documental issues on Educational Statistics and their usual interpretations, the intention was to reduce the ignorance about the origin of the school numbers, which are occasionally used in current researches without the convenient critical exam.

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This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

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Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been used in genotoxicity and cytotoxicity assays for several years before the Ames Test approach. However the cell permeability of yeast has been considered a limitant factor to this kind of assay and many researchers have been introducing genetic modifications into wild strains to improve the sensitivity to chemical compounds. In our study, we used Saccharomyces cerevisiae ATCC 9763, well known and very common strain in antibiotic assays, and we evaluated the cytotoxicity of some antineoplastic agents (etoposide, epirubicin, carboplatin, cisplatin and mitoxantrone). Each culture was observed under the light of microscope and photographed. Neither genetic modification nor addition of permeation inducers, as dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO), were introduced during the assays and the cells presented good sensitivity to those compounds, demonstrating that other potential strains and characteristics of cells should be reconsidered to improve these assays apart from the cellular permeability.

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Knowledge of residual perturbations in the orbit of Uranus in the early 1840s did not lead to the refutation of Newton's law of gravitation but instead to the discovery of Neptune in 1846. Karl Popper asserts that this case is atypical of science and that the law of gravitation was at least prima facie falsified by these perturbations. I argue that these assertions are the product of a false, a priori methodological position I call, 'Weak Popperian Falsificationism' (WPF). Further, on the evidence the law was not prima facie false and was not generally considered so by astronomers at the time. Many of Popper's commentators (Kuhn, Lakatos, Feyerabend and others) presuppose WPF and their views on this case and its implications for scientific rationality and method suffer from this same defect.

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Krylov subspace techniques have been shown to yield robust methods for the numerical computation of large sparse matrix exponentials and especially the transient solutions of Markov Chains. The attractiveness of these methods results from the fact that they allow us to compute the action of a matrix exponential operator on an operand vector without having to compute, explicitly, the matrix exponential in isolation. In this paper we compare a Krylov-based method with some of the current approaches used for computing transient solutions of Markov chains. After a brief synthesis of the features of the methods used, wide-ranging numerical comparisons are performed on a power challenge array supercomputer on three different models. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.AMS Classification: 65F99; 65L05; 65U05.

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Kalata B1 is a member of a new family of polypeptides, isolated from. plants, which have a cystine knot structure embedded within an amide-cyclized backbone. This family of molecules are the largest known cyclic peptides, and thus, the mechanism of synthesis and folding is of great interest. To provide information about both these phenomena, we have synthesized kalata B1 using two distinct strategies. In the first, oxidation of the cysteine residues of a linear precursor peptide to form the correct disulfide bonds results in folding of the three-dimensional structure and preorganization of the termini in close proximity for subsequent cyclization. The second approach involved cyclization prior to oxidation. In the first method, the correctly folded peptide was produced only in the presence of partially hydrophobic solvent conditions. These conditions are presumably required to stabilize the surface-exposed hydrophobic residues. However,; in the synthesis,involving cyclization prior to oxidation, the cyclic reduced peptide folded to a significant degree in the absence of hydrophobic solvents and even more efficiently in the presence of hydrophobic solvents. Cyclization clearly has a major effect on the folding pathway and facilitates formation of the correctly disulfide-bonded form in aqueous solution; In addition to facilitating folding to a compact stable structure cyclization has an important effect on biological activity as assessed by hemolytic activity.

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The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

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Chang S, Gomes CM, Hypolite JA, Marx J, Alanzi J, Zderic SA, Malkowicz B, Wein AJ, Chacko S. Detrusor overactivity is associated with downregulation of large-conductance calcium-and voltage-activated potassium channel protein. Am J Physiol Renal Physiol 298: F1416-F1423, 2010. First published April 14, 2010; doi: 10.1152/ajprenal.00595.2009.-Large-conductance voltage-and calcium-activated potassium (BK) channels have been shown to play a role in detrusor overactivity (DO). The goal of this study was to determine whether bladder outlet obstructioninduced DO is associated with downregulation of BK channels and whether BK channels affect myosin light chain 20 (MLC(20)) phosphorylation in detrusor smooth muscle (DSM). Partial bladder outlet obstruction (PBOO) was surgically induced in male New Zealand White rabbits. The rabbit PBOO model shows decreased voided volumes and increased voiding frequency. DSM from PBOO rabbits also show enhanced spontaneous contractions compared with control. Both BK channel alpha- and beta-subunits were significantly decreased in DSM from PBOO rabbits. Immunostaining shows BK beta mainly expressed in DSM, and its expression is much less in PBOO DSM compared with control DSM. Furthermore, a translational study was performed to see whether the finding discovered in the animal model can be translated to human patients. The urodynamic study demonstrates several overactive DSM contractions during the urine-filling stage in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) patients with DO, while DSM is very quiet in BPH patients without DO. DSM biopsies revealed significantly less BK channel expression at both mRNA and protein levels. The degree of downregulation of the BK beta-subunit was greater than that of the BK alpha-subunit, and the downregulation of BK was only associated with DO, not BPH. Finally, the small interference (si) RNA-mediated downregulation of the BK beta-subunit was employed to study the effect of BK depletion on MLC(20) phosphorylation. siRNA-mediated BK channel reduction was associated with an increased MLC(20) phosphorylation level in cultured DSM cells. In summary, PBOO-induced DO is associated with downregulation of BK channel expression in the rabbit model, and this finding can be translated to human BPH patients with DO. Furthermore, downregulation of the BK channel may contribute to DO by increasing the basal level of MLC(20) phosphorylation.

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The main aim of this study is to evaluate the capacity of human dental pulp stem cells (hDPSC), isolated from deciduous teeth, to reconstruct large-sized cranial bone defects in nonimmunosuppressed (NIS) rats. To our knowledge, these cells were not used before in similar experiments. We performed two symmetric full-thickness cranial defects (5 x 8 mm) on each parietal region of eight NIS rats. In six of them, the left side was supplied with collagen membrane only and the right side (RS) with collagen membrane and hDPSC. In two rats, the RS had collagen membrane only and nothing was added at the left side (controls). Cells were used after in vitro characterization as mesenchymal cells. Animals were euthanized at 7, 20, 30, 60, and 120 days postoperatively and cranial tissue samples were taken from the defects for histologic analysis. Analysis of the presence of human cells in the new bone was confirmed by molecular analysis. The hDPSC lineage was positive for the four mesenchymal cell markers tested and showed osteogenic, adipogenic, and myogenic in vitro differentiation. We observed bone formation 1 month after surgery in both sides, but a more mature bone was present in the RS. Human DNA was polymerase chain reaction-amplified only at the RS, indicating that this new bone had human cells. The us e of hDPSC in NIS rats did not cause any graft. rejection. Our findings suggest that hDPSC is an additional cell resource for correcting large cranial defects in rats and constitutes a promising model for reconstruction of human large cranial defects in craniofacial surgery.