Age determination, uranium, carbon and oxygen isotopes ratios of a stalagmite of the Villars cave

The signature of Dansgaard-Oeschger events - millennial-scale abrupt climate oscillations during the last glacial period - is well established in ice cores and marine records (Labeyrie, 2000, doi:10.1126/science.290.5498.1905; Blunier and Brook, 2001, doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.109: Bond et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1065680). But the effects of such events in continental settings are not as clear, and their absolute chronology is uncertain beyond the limit of 14C dating and annual layer counting for marine records and ice cores, respectively. Here we present carbon and oxygen isotope records from a stalagmite collected in southwest France which have been precisely dated using 234U/230Th ratios. We find rapid climate oscillations coincident with the established Dansgaard-Oeschger events between 83,000 and 32,000 years ago in both isotope records. The oxygen isotope signature is similar to a record from Soreq cave, Israel (Bar-Mathews et al., 2000, doi:10.1016/S0009-2541(99)00232-6), and deep-sea records (Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Shackleton and Hall, 2001, doi:10.1029/2000PA000513), indicating the large spatial scale of the climate oscillations. The signal in the carbon isotopes gives evidence of drastic and rapid vegetation changes in western Europe, an important site in human cultural evolution. We also find evidence for a long phase of extremely cold climate in southwest France between 61.2 +/-0.6 and 67.4 0.9 kyr ago.

Environmental factors affecting maerl bed structure in Brittany (France)

This study used a large spatial scale approach in order to better quantify the relationships between maerl bed structure and a selection of potentially forcing physical factors. Data on maerl bed structure and morpho-sedimentary characteristics were obtained from recent oceanographic surveys using underwater video recording and grab sampling. Considering the difficulties in carrying out real-time monitoring of highly variable hydrodynamic and physicochemical factors, these were generated by three-dimensional numerical models with high spatial and temporal resolution. The BIOENV procedure indicated that variation in the percentage cover of thalli can best be explained (correlation = 0.76) by a combination of annual mean salinity, annual mean nitrate concentration and annual mean current velocity, while the variation in the proportion of living thalli can best be explained (correlation = 0.47) by a combination of depth and mud content. Linear relationships showed that the percentage cover of maerl thalli was positively correlated with nitrate concentration (R2 = 0.78, P < 0.01) and negatively correlated with salinity (R2 = 0.81, P < 0.01), suggesting a strong effect of estuarine discharge on maerl bed structure, and also negatively correlated with current velocity (R2 = 0.81, P < 0.01). When maerl beds were deeper than 10 m, the proportion of living thalli was always below 30% but when they were shallower than 10 m, it varied between 4 and 100%, and was negatively correlated with mud content (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.01). On the other hand, when mud content was below 10%, the proportion of living thalli showed a negative correlation with depth (R2 = 0.84, P < 0.01). This large spatial scale explanation of maerl bed heterogeneity provides a realistic physical characterization of these ecologically interesting benthic habitats and usable findings for their conservation and management.

FluxEngine: A flexible processing system for calculating atmosphere-ocean carbon dioxide gas fluxes and climatologies

The air-sea flux of greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, CO2) is a critical part of the climate system and a major factor in the biogeochemical development of the oceans. More accurate and higher resolution calculations of these gas fluxes are required if we are to fully understand and predict our future climate. Satellite Earth observation is able to provide large spatial scale datasets that can be used to study gas fluxes. However, the large storage requirements needed to host such data can restrict its use by the scientific community. Fortunately, the development of cloud-computing can provide a solution. Here we describe an open source air-sea CO2 flux processing toolbox called the ‘FluxEngine’, designed for use on a cloud-computing infrastructure. The toolbox allows users to easily generate global and regional air-sea CO2 flux data from model, in situ and Earth observation data, and its air-sea gas flux calculation is user configurable. Its current installation on the Nephalae cloud allows users to easily exploit more than 8 terabytes of climate-quality Earth observation data for the derivation of gas fluxes. The resultant NetCDF data output files contain >20 data layers containing the various stages of the flux calculation along with process indicator layers to aid interpretation of the data. This paper describes the toolbox design, the verification of the air-sea CO2 flux calculations, demonstrates the use of the tools for studying global and shelf-sea air-sea fluxes and describes future developments.

Interacción planta-animal en el contexto de sistemas productivos desarrollados en distintos ambientes ecológicos

El estudio de los factores que rigen los patrones espaciales de la distribución del pastoreo de los herbívoros domésticos es fundamental en la ecología y el manejo de los recursos naturales. Aunque los productores y profesionales realizan ajustes anuales o estacionales de la carga animal para influir en la preferencia animal por determinados ambientes de pastoreo y alcanzar un uso eficiente del recurso forrajero, el manejo de la distribución del ganado continúa siendo un gran desafío. La heterogeneidad de los ambientes de pastoreo tiene dimensión tanto espacial como temporal, lo cual impone desafíos en el entendimiento de los factores que influyen en las decisiones de selección de hábitat por parte del ganado. En esta contribución comenzamos revisando los modelos conceptuales actuales del comportamiento del ganado a grandes escalas. Luego, presentamos algunos resultados de estudios conducidos en diferentes ecosistemas contrastantes de Argentina y New Mexico (EEUU). Estos estudios desarrollados usando animales con y sin collares GPS contribuyen a mejorar gradualmente las decisiones de manejo de los pastizales. Finalmente, hacemos unas consideraciones breves relacionadas con el manejo del ganado en Ecuador que pueden contribuir a mejorar la sustentabilidad de los sistemas de producción ganaderos.

Contextualizing local-scale point sample data using global-scale spatial datasets: Lessons learnt from the analysis of large-scale land acquisitions

This paper examines how the geospatial accuracy of samples and sample size influence conclusions from geospatial analyses. It does so using the example of a study investigating the global phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions and the socio-ecological characteristics of the areas they target. First, we analysed land deal datasets of varying geospatial accuracy and varying sizes and compared the results in terms of land cover, population density, and two indicators for agricultural potential: yield gap and availability of uncultivated land that is suitable for rainfed agriculture. We found that an increase in geospatial accuracy led to a substantial and greater change in conclusions about the land cover types targeted than an increase in sample size, suggesting that using a sample of higher geospatial accuracy does more to improve results than using a larger sample. The same finding emerged for population density, yield gap, and the availability of uncultivated land suitable for rainfed agriculture. Furthermore, the statistical median proved to be more consistent than the mean when comparing the descriptive statistics for datasets of different geospatial accuracy. Second, we analysed effects of geospatial accuracy on estimations regarding the potential for advancing agricultural development in target contexts. Our results show that the target contexts of the majority of land deals in our sample whose geolocation is known with a high level of accuracy contain smaller amounts of suitable, but uncultivated land than regional- and national-scale averages suggest. Consequently, the more target contexts vary within a country, the more detailed the spatial scale of analysis has to be in order to draw meaningful conclusions about the phenomena under investigation. We therefore advise against using national-scale statistics to approximate or characterize phenomena that have a local-scale impact, particularly if key indicators vary widely within a country.

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure and gene dispersal in Silene latifolia.

Plants are sessile organisms, often characterized by limited dispersal. Seeds and pollen are the critical stages for gene flow. Here we investigate spatial genetic structure, gene dispersal and the relative contribution of pollen vs seed in the movement of genes in a stable metapopulation of the white campion Silene latifolia within its native range. This short-lived perennial plant is dioecious, has gravity-dispersed seeds and moth-mediated pollination. Direct measures of pollen dispersal suggested that large populations receive more pollen than small isolated populations and that most gene flow occurs within tens of meters. However, these studies were performed in the newly colonized range (North America) where the specialist pollinator is absent. In the native range (Europe), gene dispersal could fall on a different spatial scale. We genotyped 258 individuals from large and small (15) subpopulations along a 60 km, elongated metapopulation in Europe using six highly variable microsatellite markers, two X-linked and four autosomal. We found substantial genetic differentiation among subpopulations (global F(ST)=0.11) and a general pattern of isolation by distance over the whole sampled area. Spatial autocorrelation revealed high relatedness among neighboring individuals over hundreds of meters. Estimates of gene dispersal revealed gene flow at the scale of tens of meters (5-30 m), similar to the newly colonized range. Contrary to expectations, estimates of dispersal based on X and autosomal markers showed very similar ranges, suggesting similar levels of pollen and seed dispersal. This may be explained by stochastic events of extensive seed dispersal in this area and limited pollen dispersal.

Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.

Phenology for tropoclimatological surveys and large-scale mapping

Biotic and abiotic phenological observations can be collected from continental to local spatial scale. Plant phenological observations may only be recorded wherever there is vegetation. Fog, snow and ice are available as phenological para-meters wherever they appear. The singularity of phenological observations is the possibility of spatial intensification to a microclimatic scale where the equipment of meteorological measurements is too expensive for intensive campaigning. The omnipresence of region-specific phenological parameters allows monitoring for a spatially much more detailed assessment of climate change than with weather data. We demonstrate this concept with phenological observations with the use of a special network in the Canton of Berne, Switzerland, with up to 600 observations sites (more than 1 to 10 km² of the inhabited area). Classic cartography, gridding, the integration into a Geographic Information System GIS and large-scale analysis are the steps to a detailed knowledge of topoclimatic conditions of a mountainous area. Examples of urban phenology provide other types of spatially detailed applications. Large potential in phenological mapping in future analyses lies in combining traditionally observed species-specific phenology with remotely sensed and modelled phenology that provide strong spatial information. This is a long history from cartographic intuition to algorithm-based representations of phenology.

Practical Large-Scale Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Particulate Matter Concentrations

The last two decades have seen intense scientific and regulatory interest in the health effects of particulate matter (PM). Influential epidemiological studies that characterize chronic exposure of individuals rely on monitoring data that are sparse in space and time, so they often assign the same exposure to participants in large geographic areas and across time. We estimate monthly PM during 1988-2002 in a large spatial domain for use in studying health effects in the Nurses' Health Study. We develop a conceptually simple spatio-temporal model that uses a rich set of covariates. The model is used to estimate concentrations of PM10 for the full time period and PM2.5 for a subset of the period. For the earlier part of the period, 1988-1998, few PM2.5 monitors were operating, so we develop a simple extension to the model that represents PM2.5 conditionally on PM10 model predictions. In the epidemiological analysis, model predictions of PM10 are more strongly associated with health effects than when using simpler approaches to estimate exposure. Our modeling approach supports the application in estimating both fine-scale and large-scale spatial heterogeneity and capturing space-time interaction through the use of monthly-varying spatial surfaces. At the same time, the model is computationally feasible, implementable with standard software, and readily understandable to the scientific audience. Despite simplifying assumptions, the model has good predictive performance and uncertainty characterization.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Large-scale neural dynamics: simple and complex

We review the use of neural field models for modelling the brain at the large scales necessary for interpreting EEG, fMRI, MEG and optical imaging data. Albeit a framework that is limited to coarse-grained or mean-field activity, neural field models provide a framework for unifying data from different imaging modalities. Starting with a description of neural mass models we build to spatially extended cortical models of layered two-dimensional sheets with long range axonal connections mediating synaptic interactions. Reformulations of the fundamental non-local mathematical model in terms of more familiar local differential (brain wave) equations are described. Techniques for the analysis of such models, including how to determine the onset of spatio-temporal pattern forming instabilities, are reviewed. Extensions of the basic formalism to treat refractoriness, adaptive feedback and inhomogeneous connectivity are described along with open challenges for the development of multi-scale models that can integrate macroscopic models at large spatial scales with models at the microscopic scale.

Cross-scale determinants of palm species distribution

We investigate palm species distribution, richness and abundance along the Mokoti, a seasonally-dry river of southeastern Amazon and compare it to the patterns observed at a large scale, comprising the entire Brazilian territory. A total of 694 palms belonging to 10 species were sampled at the Mokoti River basin. Although the species showed diverse distribution patterns, we found that local palm abundance, richness and tree basal area were significantly higher from the hills to the bottomlands of the study region, revealing a positive association of these measures with moisture. The analyses at the larger spatial scale also showed a strong influence of vapor pressure (a measure of moisture content of the air, in turn modulated by temperature) and seasonality in temperature: the richest regions were those where temperature and humidity were simultaneously high, and which also presented a lower degree of seasonality in temperature. These results indicate that the distribution of palms seems to be strongly associated with climatic variables, supporting the idea that, by 'putting all the eggs in one basket' (a consequence of survival depending on the preservation of a single irreplaceable bud), palms have become vulnerable to extreme environmental conditions. Hence, their distribution is concentrated in those tropical and sub-tropical regions with constant conditions of (mild to high) temperature and moisture all year round.

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs137 activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.

Multi-scale integration and predictability in resting state brain activity.

The human brain displays heterogeneous organization in both structure and function. Here we develop a method to characterize brain regions and networks in terms of information-theoretic measures. We look at how these measures scale when larger spatial regions as well as larger connectome sub-networks are considered. This framework is applied to human brain fMRI recordings of resting-state activity and DSI-inferred structural connectivity. We find that strong functional coupling across large spatial distances distinguishes functional hubs from unimodal low-level areas, and that this long-range functional coupling correlates with structural long-range efficiency on the connectome. We also find a set of connectome regions that are both internally integrated and coupled to the rest of the brain, and which resemble previously reported resting-state networks. Finally, we argue that information-theoretic measures are useful for characterizing the functional organization of the brain at multiple scales.

Inclusion of soil erosion impacts in life cycle assessment on a global scale: application to energy crops in Spain

Purpose: Despite the fundamental role of ecosystem goods and services in sustaining human activities, there is no harmonized and internationally agreed method for including them in life cycle assessment (LCA). The main goal of this study was to develop a globally applicable and spatially resolved method for assessing land-use impacts on the erosion regulation ecosystem service.Methods: Soil erosion depends much on location. Thus, unlike conventional LCA, the endpoint method was regionalized at the grid-cell level (5 arc-minutes, approximately 10×10 km2) to reflect the spatial conditions of the site. Spatially explicit characterization factors were not further aggregated at broader spatial scales. Results and discussion: Life cycle inventory data of topsoil and topsoil organic carbon (SOC) losses were interpreted at the endpoint level in terms of the ultimate damage to soil resources and ecosystem quality. Human health damages were excluded from the assessment. The method was tested on a case study of five three-year agricultural rotations, two of them with energy crops, grown in several locations in Spain. A large variation in soil and SOC losses was recorded in the inventory step, depending on climatic and edaphic conditions. The importance of using a spatially explicit model and characterization factors is shown in the case study.Conclusions and outlook: The regionalized assessment takes into account the differences in soil erosion-related environmental impacts caused by the great variability of soils. Taking this regionalized framework as the starting point, further research should focus on testing the applicability of the method trough the complete life cycle of a product and on determining an appropriate spatial scale at which to aggregate characterization factors, in order to deal with data gaps on location of processes, especially in the background system. Additional research should also focus on improving reliability of the method by quantifying and, insofar as it is possible, reducing uncertainty.