Colorectal cancer risk following adenoma removal: a large prospective population-based cohort study

Background: Randomised controlled trials have demonstrated significant reductions in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality associated with polypectomy. However, little is known about whether polypectomy is effective at reducing CRC risk in routine clinical practice. The aim of this investigation was to quantify CRC risk following polypectomy in a large prospective population-based cohort study.

Methods: Patients with incident colorectal polyps between 2000 and 2005 in Northern Ireland (NI) were identified via electronic pathology reports received to the NI Cancer Registry (NICR). Patients were matched to the NICR to detect CRC and deaths up to 31st December 2010. CRC standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated and Cox proportional hazards modelling applied to determine CRC risk.

Results: During 44,724 person-years of follow-up, 193 CRC cases were diagnosed amongst 6,972 adenoma patients, representing an annual progression rate of 0.43%. CRC risk was significantly elevated in patients who had an adenoma removed (SIR 2.85; 95% CI: 2.61 to 3.25) compared with the general population. Male sex, older age, rectal site and villous architecture were associated with an increased CRC risk in adenoma patients. Further analysis suggested that not having a full colonoscopy performed at, or following, incident polypectomy contributed to the excess CRC risk.

Conclusions: CRC risk was elevated in individuals following polypectomy for adenoma, outside of screening programmes.

Impact: This finding emphasises the need for full colonoscopy and adenoma clearance, and appropriate surveillance, after endoscopic diagnosis of adenoma.

Some general comparative points on Chao’s and Zelterman’s estimators of population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Fine-scale effects of habitat loss and fragmentation despite large-scale gene flow for some regionally declining woodland bird species

Habitat loss and associated fragmentation effects are well-recognised threats to biodiversity. Loss of functional connectivity (mobility, gene flow and demographic continuity) could result in population decline in altered habitat, because smaller, isolated populations are more vulnerable to extinction. We tested whether substantial habitat reduction plus fragmentation is associated with reduced gene flow in three 'decliner' woodland-dependent bird species (eastern yellow robin, weebill and spotted pardalote) identified in earlier work to have declined disproportionately in heavily fragmented landscapes in the Box-Ironbark forest region in north-central Victoria, Australia. For these three decliners, and one 'tolerant' species (striated pardalote), we compared patterns of genetic diversity, relatedness, effective population size, sex-ratios and genic (allele frequency) differentiation among landscapes of different total tree cover, identified population subdivision at the regional scale, and explored fine-scale genotypic (individual-based genetic signature) structure. Unexpectedly high genetic connectivity across the study region was detected for 'decliner' and 'tolerant' species. Power analysis simulations suggest that moderate reductions in gene flow should have been detectable. However, there was evidence of local negative effects of reduced habitat extent and structural connectivity: slightly lower effective population sizes, lower genetic diversity, higher within-site relatedness and altered sex-ratios (for weebill and eastern yellow robin) in 10 x 10 km 'landscapes' with low vegetation cover. We conclude that reduced structural connectivity in the Box-Ironbark ecosystem may still allow sufficient gene flow to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding in our study species. Although there may still be negative consequences of fragmentation for demographic connectivity, the high genetic connectivity of mobile bird species in this system suggests that reconnecting isolated habitat patches may be less important than increasing habitat extent and/or quality if these need to be traded off.

Seasonal population dynamics and the genetic structure of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti in São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population histories of right whales (Cetacea: Eubalaena) Inferred from Mitochondrial Sequence Diversities and Divergences of Their Whale Lice (Amphipoda: Cyamus)

Right whales carry large populations of three ‘whale lice’ (Cyamus ovalis, Cyamus gracilis, Cyamus erraticus) that have no other hosts. We used sequence variation in the mitochondrial COI gene to ask (i) whether cyamid population structures might reveal associations among right whale individuals and subpopulations, (ii) whether the divergences of the three nominally conspecific cyamid species on North Atlantic, North Pacific, and southern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis, Eubalaena japonica, Eubalaena australis) might indicate their times of separation, and (iii) whether the shapes of cyamid gene trees might contain information about changes in the population sizes of right whales. We found high levels of nucleotide diversity but almost no population structure within oceans, indicating large effective population sizes and high rates of transfer between whales and subpopulations. North Atlantic and Southern Ocean populations of all three species are reciprocally monophyletic, and North Pacific C. erraticus is well separated from North Atlantic and southern C. erraticus. Mitochondrial clock calibrations suggest that these divergences occurred around 6 million years ago (Ma), and that the Eubalaena mitochondrial clock is very slow. North Pacific C. ovalis forms a clade inside the southern C. ovalis gene tree, implying that at least one right whale has crossed the equator in the Pacific Ocean within the last 1–2 million years (Myr). Low-frequency polymorphisms are more common than expected under neutrality for populations of constant size, but there is no obvious signal of rapid, interspecifically congruent expansion of the kind that would be expected if North Atlantic or southern right whales had experienced a prolonged population bottleneck within the last 0.5 Myr.

History and fate of a small isolated population of Weddell seals at White Island, Antarctica

Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii Lesson) at White Island, Antarctica form a small, completely enclosed, natural population hypothesized to be of recent origin, likely founded by individuals from nearby Erebus Bay. This population constitutes an ideal model to document a founder event and ensuing genetic drift, with implications for conservation. Here we combined historical accounts, census and tagging data since the late 1960s, and genetic data (41 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA sequences) from 84 individuals representing nearly all individuals present between 1990 and 2000 to investigate the history of the founding of the White Island population, document its population dynamics and evaluate possible future threats. We fully resolved parental relationships over three overlapping generations. Cytonuclear disequilibrium among the first generation suggested that it comprised the direct descendants of a founding group. We estimated that the White Island population was founded by a small group of individuals that accessed the island during a brief break in the surrounding sea ice in the mid-1950s, consistent with historical accounts. Direct and indirect methods of calculating effective population size were highly congruent and suggested a minimum founding group consisting of three females and two males. The White Island population showed altered reproductive dynamics compared to Erebus Bay, including highly skewed sex ratio, documented inbred mating events, and the oldest known reproducing Weddell seals. A comparison with the putative source population showed that the White Island population has an effective inbreeding coefficient (Fe) of 0.29. Based on a pedigree analysis including the hypothesized founding group, 86% of the individuals for whom parents were known had inbreeding coefficients ranging 0.09–0.31. This high level of inbreeding was correlated with reduced pup survival. Seals at White Island therefore face the combined effects of low genetic variability, lack of immigration, and inbreeding depression. Ultimately, this study provides evidence of the effects of natural isolation on a large, long-lived vertebrate and can provide clues to the potential effects of anthropogenic- caused isolation of similar taxa.

Population size of threatened and endemic birds of the Cerrado in Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina, a fragmented area in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The pressures for land use change have led to an increasing isolation of habitat remnants throughout the world. The goal of this study was to estimate the population size and density of some endemic and threatened species in a nature reserve in the Cerrado biome. One hundred and thirty four point transects were undertaken at the Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina (EEI), one of the last natural grassland savannah remnants in Sao Paulo state, in the south-east of Brazil between September and December 2006 and densities estimated for seven species (four endemic to the Cerrado, one near-endemic and two grassland specialists). Neither species reached the minimum viable population size of 500-5000 individuals. Four species, White-banded Tanager, White-rumped Tanager, Black-throated Saltator and Sharp-tailed Tyrant have populations ranging from 112 to 248 individuals, while the other species have a low population (< 60 individuals). The mean densities of Sharp-tailed Tyrant and Cock-tailed Tyrant in the EEI grassland showed similar values to those observed in larger areas of the Cerrado, which may indicate that the EEL grassland area is well conserved. In spite of the restricted size of the EEI, small areas can maintain some endemic and threatened bird populations, thus contributing to local biodiversity and the ecological processes in the region. The capacity of fragments of Cerrado (similar to 2,000 ha) to maintain populations of endemic and threatened bird species is unlikely to be effective in the long term.

Consequences of plant population size for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success

Habitat loss and fragmentation have a prominent role in determining the size of plant populations, and can affect plant-pollinator interactions. It is hypothesized that in small plant populations the ability to set seeds can be reduced due to limited pollination services, since individuals in small populations can receive less quantity or quality of visits. In this study, I investigated the effect of population size on plant reproductive success and insect visitation in 8 populations of two common species in the island of Lesvos, Greece (Mediterranean Sea), Echium plantagineum and Ballota acetabulosa, and of a rare perennial shrub endemic to north-central Italy, Ononis masquillierii. All the three species depended on insect pollinators for sexual reproduction. For each species, pollen limitation was present in all or nearly all populations, but the relationship between pollen limitation and population size was only present in Ononis masquillierii. However, in Echium plantagineum, significant relationships between both open-pollinated and handcrossed-pollinated seed sets and population size were found, being small populations comparatively less productive than large ones. Additionally, for this species, livestock grazing intensity was greater for small populations and for sparse patches, and had a negative influence on productivity of the remnant plants. Both Echium plantagineum and Ballota acetabulosa attracted a great number of insects, representing a wide spectrum of pollinators, thereby can be considered as generalist species. For Ballota acetabulosa, the most important pollinators were megachilid female bees, and insect diversity didn’t decrease with decreasing plant population size. By contrast, Ononis masquillierii plants generally received few visits, with flowers specialized on small bees (Lasioglossum spp.), representing the most important insect guild. In Echium plantagineum and Ballota acetabulosa, plants in small and large populations received the same amount of visits per flower, and no differences in the number of intraplant visited flowers were detected. On the contrary, large Ononis populations supported higher amounts of pollinators than small ones. At patch level, high Echium flower density was associated with more and higher quality pollinators. My results indicate that small populations were not subject to reduced pollination services than large ones in Echium plantagineum and Ballota acetabulosa, and suggest that grazing and resource limitation could have a major impact on population fitness in Echium plantagineum. The absence of any size effects in these two species can be explained in the light of their high local abundance, wide habitat specificity, and ability to compete with other co-flowering species for pollinators. By contrast, size represents a key characteristic for both pollination and reproduction in Ononis masquillierii populations, as an increase in size could mitigate the negative effects coming from the disadvantageous reproductive traits of the species. Finally, the widespread occurrence of pollen limitation in the three species may be the result of 1) an ongoing weakening or disruption of plantpollinator interactions derived from ecological perturbations, 2) an adaptive equilibrium in response to stochastic processes, and 3) the presence of unfavourable reproductive traits (for Ononis masquillierii).

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

Background: Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results: Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (R(ST) = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (R(ST) = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (R(ST) = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m similar to 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions: This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view.

Herbivores limit the population size of big-leaf mahogany trees in an Amazonian forest

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis proposes that specialized herbivores maintain high numbers of tree species in tropical forests by restricting adult recruitment so that host populations remain at low densities. We tested this prediction for the large timber tree species, Swietenia macrophylla, whose seeds and seedlings are preyed upon by small mammals and a host-specific moth caterpillar Steniscadia poliophaea, respectively. At a primary forest site, experimental seed additions to gaps – canopy-disturbed areas that enhance seedling growth into saplings – over three years revealed lower survival and seedling recruitment closer to conspecific trees and in higher basal area neighborhoods, as well as reduced subsequent seedling survival and height growth. When we included these Janzen–Connell effects in a spatially explicit individual-based population model, the caterpillar's impact was critical to limiting Swietenia's adult tree density, with a > 10-fold reduction estimated at 300 years. Our research demonstrates the crucial but oft-ignored linkage between Janzen–Connell effects on offspring and population-level consequences for a long-lived, potentially dominant tree species.

An Adaptive Genetic Algorithm with Dynamic Population Size for Optimizing Join Queries

The problem of finding the optimal join ordering executing a query to a relational database management system is a combinatorial optimization problem, which makes deterministic exhaustive solution search unacceptable for queries with a great number of joined relations. In this work an adaptive genetic algorithm with dynamic population size is proposed for optimizing large join queries. The performance of the algorithm is compared with that of several classical non-deterministic optimization algorithms. Experiments have been performed optimizing several random queries against a randomly generated data dictionary. The proposed adaptive genetic algorithm with probabilistic selection operator outperforms in a number of test runs the canonical genetic algorithm with Elitist selection as well as two common random search strategies and proves to be a viable alternative to existing non-deterministic optimization approaches.

A single panmictic population of endemic red crabs, Gecarcoidea natalis, on Christmas Island with high levels of genetic diversity

The red crab, Gecarcoidea natalis, is endemic to Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean and largely responsible for shaping the unique ecosystem found throughout the island's rainforests. However, the introduction and establishment of supercolonies of the highly invasive yellow crazy ant, Anoplolepis gracilipes, has decimated red crab numbers over the last several decades. This poses a significant risk to the future conservation of G. natalis and consequently threatens the integrity of the unique island ecosystem. Here we undertook a population genetic analysis of G. natalis using a combination of 11 microsatellite markers and sequencing of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene from samples collected on Christmas Island as well as a single location from North Keeling Island (located approximately 900 km west of Christmas Island). The genetic results indicate that G. natalis is a single panmictic population on Christmas Island, with no spatial genetic structure or restricted gene flow apparent between sampled locations. Further, G. natalis from North Keeling Island are not genetically distinct and are recent immigrants from Christmas Island. The effective population size of G. natalis has likely remained large and stable on Christmas Island throughout its evolutionary history with relatively moderate to high levels of genetic diversity in microsatellite loci and mitochondrial haplotypes assessed in this study. For management purposes G. natalis can be considered a single panmictic population, which should simplify conservation efforts for the genetic management of this iconic island species. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

The effects of habitat fragmentation on the demography and population genetic structure of Uromys Caudimaculatus

Habitat fragmentation can have an impact on a wide variety of biological processes including abundance, life history strategies, mating system, inbreeding and genetic diversity levels of individual species. Although fragmented populations have received much attention, ecological and genetic responses of species to fragmentation have still not been fully resolved. The current study investigated the ecological factors that may influence the demographic and genetic structure of the giant white-tailed rat (Uromys caudimaculatus) within fragmented tropical rainforests. It is the first study to examine relationships between food resources, vegetation attributes and Uromys demography in a quantitative manner. Giant white-tailed rat densities were strongly correlated with specific suites of food resources rather than forest structure or other factors linked to fragmentation (i.e. fragment size). Several demographic parameters including the density of resident adults and juvenile recruitment showed similar patterns. Although data were limited, high quality food resources appear to initiate breeding in female Uromys. Where data were sufficient, influx of juveniles was significantly related to the density of high quality food resources that had fallen in the previous three months. Thus, availability of high quality food resources appear to be more important than either vegetation structure or fragment size in influencing giant white-tailed rat demography. These results support the suggestion that a species’ response to fragmentation can be related to their specific habitat requirements and can vary in response to local ecological conditions. In contrast to demographic data, genetic data revealed a significant negative effect of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity and effective population size in U. caudimaculatus. All three fragments showed lower levels of allelic richness, number of private alleles and expected heterozygosity compared with the unfragmented continuous rainforest site. Populations at all sites were significantly differentiated, suggesting restricted among population gene flow. The combined effects of reduced genetic diversity, lower effective population size and restricted gene flow suggest that long-term viability of small fragmented populations may be at risk, unless effective management is employed in the future. A diverse range of genetic reproductive behaviours and sex-biased dispersal patterns were evident within U. caudimaculatus populations. Genetic paternity analyses revealed that the major mating system in U. caudimaculatus appeared to be polygyny at sites P1, P3 and C1. Evidence of genetic monogamy, however, was also found in the three fragmented sites, and was the dominant mating system in the remaining low density, small fragment (P2). High variability in reproductive skew and reproductive success was also found but was less pronounced when only resident Uromys were considered. Male body condition predicted which males sired offspring, however, neither body condition nor heterozygosity levels were accurate predictors of the number of offspring assigned to individual males or females. Genetic spatial autocorrelation analyses provided evidence for increased philopatry among females at site P1, but increased philopatry among males at site P3. This suggests that male-biased dispersal occurs at site P1 and female-biased dispersal at site P3, implying that in addition to mating systems, Uromys may also be able to adjust their dispersal behaviour to suit local ecological conditions. This study highlights the importance of examining the mechanisms that underlie population-level responses to habitat fragmentation using a combined ecological and genetic approach. The ecological data suggested that habitat quality (i.e. high quality food resources) rather than habitat quantity (i.e. fragment size) was relatively more important in influencing giant white-tailed rat demographics, at least for the populations studied here . Conversely, genetic data showed strong evidence that Uromys populations were affected adversely by habitat fragmentation and that management of isolated populations may be required for long-term viability of populations within isolated rainforest fragments.

Prediction of IBD based on population history for fine gene mapping

A novel multiple regression method (RM) is developed to predict identity-by-descent probabilities at a locus L (IBDL), among individuals without pedigree, given information on surrounding markers and population history. These IBDL probabilities are a function of the increase in linkage disequilibrium (LD) generated by drift in a homogeneous population over generations. Three parameters are sufficient to describe population history: effective population size (Ne), number of generations since foundation (T), and marker allele frequencies among founders (p). IBD L are used in a simulation study to map a quantitative trait locus (QTL) via variance component estimation. RM is compared to a coalescent method (CM) in terms of power and robustness of QTL detection. Differences between RM and CM are small but significant. For example, RM is more powerful than CM in dioecious populations, but not in monoecious populations. Moreover, RM is more robust than CM when marker phases are unknown or when there is complete LD among founders or Ne is wrong, and less robust when p is wrong. CM utilises all marker haplotype information, whereas RM utilises information contained in each individual marker and all possible marker pairs but not in higher order interactions. RM consists of a family of models encompassing four different population structures, and two ways of using marker information, which contrasts with the single model that must cater for all possible evolutionary scenarios in CM.