Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

Typographic layout and first impressions: testing how changes in text layout influence reader's judgments of documents

This study explores how the typographic layout of information influences readers' impressions of magazine contents pages. Thirteen descriptors were used in a paired comparison procedure that assessed whether participants' rhetorical impressions of a set of six controlled documents change in relation to variations in layout. The combinations of layout attributes tested were derived from the structural attributes associated with three patterns of typographic differentiation (high, moderate, and low) described in a previous study (see Moys, 2014). The content and the range of stylistic attributes applied to the test material were controlled in order to focus on layout attributes. Triangulation of the quantitative and qualitative data indicates that, even within the experimental confines of limited stylistic differentiation, the layout attributes associated with patterns of high, moderate, and low typographic differentiation do influence readers' rhetorical judgments. In addition, the findings emphasize the importance of considering inter-relationships between clusters of typographic attributes rather than testing isolated variables.

The high court and the utility of multiple judgments

Recently, the High Court has been criticised for its supposed increasing tendency to deliver multiple majority judgments. Ostensibly this impairs the capacity for the Court to clarify and unify the law, thereby making it more difficult for citizens to plan and coordinate their affairs. This criticism of the High Court is unsound. First, there is no evidence to suggest that the High Court is now more fragmented than it has been during other periods of its history. Secondly, the precise reasoning process (and the underlying jurisprudence reflected by this) is a cardinal aspect of the development of precedent and legal principle. Convergence in conclusion only is of little utility and does not promote certainty and clarity in the law. One cannot make an informed assessment of the impact and breadth of a decision without an understanding of the (actual) premise underpinning the decision. It is for this reason that legislation is such a poor vehicle for declaring the law and why in recent decades there has been an increasing degree of reliance on extraneous material to assist in the interpretation of legislation. Conclusion without (genuine) reasons is not highly instructive. Coerced agreement, no matter how subtle, is undesirable. The High Court should resist calls to deliver more single majority judgments.

Order of question presentation and correlation between judgments of comparative and own risk

Unrealistic optimism is often assessed using a single question asking for an estimate of comparative risk. However, it has been proposed that individuals treat such a question essentially as though it were only about their own risk. This proposal leads to the prediction that, when the questions about own risk and comparative risk are asked in sequence, the correlation between the resulting estimates should be lower if the question about own risk comes first than if the question about comparative risk comes first. This prediction was tested using a student sample (N=68). Participants answered the two types of question in sequence, with order of presentation being counterbalanced. Results were in accord with the prediction. Possible reasons are advanced for individuals' answering questions about comparative risk as if the questions concerned their own risk.

The effect of mood on opposite-sex judgments of males' commitment and females sexual intent

Gender differences in perceptions of sexual intent and commitment have been the subject of formal and informal inquiry for considerable time. One evolutionary theory, Error Management Theory (EMT), predicts that opposite-sex perceptions of female sexual intent and male commitment intent reflect intrinsic biases that minimize gender-specific evolutionary costs. The results supporting these hypotheses were obtained from subjects regardless of mood. We hypothesized that mood would influence ratings of sexual and commitment intent. Sixty participants (30 males, 30 females) were recruited and exposed to a positive and negative mood condition in counterbalanced groups using video stimuli. Preliminary analyses found an unexpected effect of order of mood induction, necessitating separate analyses of the Positive-Negative (PN) and Negative-Positive (NP) groups. Contrary to the original study, there were no gender effects. Positive moods led to increased ratings of both sexual and commitment intent across genders. Further, negative to positive mood-change was associated with significantly increased ratings. Both males and females attributed significantly higher sexual intent to same-sex rivals than themselves, but only males assessed themselves as having significantly higher commitment intent than same-sex rivals. The EMT model may require adaptation to acknowledge effects of variables such as mood on its predictions of gender-specific biases.

The effects of phonological and morphological training on speech perception scores and grammatical judgments in deaf and hard-of-hearing children

Seventeen primary school deaf and hard-of-hearing children were given two types of training for 9 weeks each. Phonological training involved practice of /s, z, t, d/ in word final position in monomorphemic words. Morphological training involved learning and practicing the rules for forming third-person singular, present tense, past tense, and plurals. The words used in the two training types were different (monomorphemic or polymorphemic) but both involved word final /s, z, t, d/. Grammatical judgments were tested before and after training using short sentences that were read aloud by the child (or by the presenter if the child was unable to read them). Perception was tested with 150 key words in sentences using the trained morphemes and phonemes in word final position. Grammatical judgments for sentences involving the trained morphemes improved significantly after each type of training. Both types of training needed to be completed before a significant improvement was found for speech perception scores. The results suggest that both phonological and morphological training are beneficial in improving speech perception and grammatical performance of deaf and hard-of-hearing children and that both types of training were required to obtain the maximum benefit.

Reparation and enforcement of judgments : a comparative analysis of the European and Inter-American human rights systems

The inter-American human rights system has been conceived following the example of the European system under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) before it was modified by Protocol No 11. However, two important differences exist. First, the authority of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) to order reparation has been strictly limited by the principle of subsidiarity. Thus, the ECtHR's main function is to determine whether the ECHR has been violated. Beyond the declaratory effect of its judgments, according to Article 41 ECHR, it may only "afford just satisfaction to the injured party". The powers of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) were conceived in a much broader fashion in Article 63 of the American Convention on Human Rights (ACHR), giving the Court the authority to order a variety of individual and general measures aimed at obtaining restitutio in integrum. The first main part of this thesis shows how both Courts have developed their reparation practice and examines the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Secondly, the ECtHR's rather limited reparation powers have, interestingly, been combined with an elaborate implementation system that includes several of the Council of Europe's organs, principally the Committee of Ministers. In the Inter-American System, no dedicated mechanism was implemented to oversee compliance with the IACtHR's judgments. The ACHR limits itself to inviting the Court to point out in its annual reports the cases that have not been complied with and to propose measures to be adopted by the General Assembly of the Organization of American States. The General Assembly, however, hardly ever took action. The IACtHR has therefore filled this gap by developing a proper procedure to oversee compliance with its judgments. Both the European and the American solutions to ensure compliance are presented and compared in the second main part of this thesis. Finally, based on the results of both main parts, a comparative analysis of the reparation practice and the execution results in both human rights systems is being provided, aimed at developing proposals for the improvement of the functioning of either human rights protection system.