Economic cycles, asymmetric crises and tourism competitiveness: emerging versus mature destinations

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on tourism destinations competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing a period of forty years, the differential permanent or temporary effects that economic crises has on competitiveness of mature and emerging destinations are observed. Furthermore, it identifies the economic transmission mechanisms operating within this context, analysing them using the framework of the most relevant explanatory models of tourism destination competitiveness. The preliminary results obtained suggest that the effects of these shocks on competitiveness are not neutral. In mature destinations the negative effects are more persistent in highly intensive crises. In emerging destinations with a growing natural trend on tourism demand, the effects of the economic crises are softer and limited, reinforcing the process of convergence between destinations. This effect works through two basic transmission mechanisms: the reduction of internal and external tourism demand and the decrease on investment.

A new technique for recovering energy in thermally coupled distillation using vapor recompression cycles

Even though it has been proved that a fully thermally coupled distillation (TCD) system minimizes the energy used by a sequence of columns, it is well-known that vapor/liquid transfers between different sections produce an unavoidable excess of vapor (liquid) in some of them, increasing both the investment and operating costs. It is proposed here to take advantage of this situation by extracting the extra vapor/liquid and subjecting it to a direct/reverse vapor compression cycle. This new arrangement restores the optimal operating conditions of some of the affected sections with energy savings of around 20–30% compared with conventional TCD columns. Various examples, including the direct and reverse vapor recompression cycles, are presented. Furthermore, in each example, all possible modes of distillation (direct, indirect and Petlyuk distillation) with and without vapor recompression cycles (VRC) are compared to ensure that this approach delivers the best results.

Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 7/November 2006

Recent research has highlighted that in the last few years the evolution of regional disparities in many European states has become pro-cyclical. This represents a change with respect to the predominantly anti-cyclical pattern of the 1960s and 1970s. This paper addresses the question of whether and when this change has taken place in the southern periphery of Europe, before analyzing the factors that may have played a role in such a change. The analysis relies on a regional database that includes the evolution of the GDP per capita of NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) between 1980 and 2000. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis of a change towards a pro-cyclical evolution of regional disparities in the cases of Italy, Portugal, and Spain, but not in those of Greece and France. A relationship between these pro-cyclical patters and the emergence of less dynamic sheltered economies is also detected in peripheral regions. This lack of dynamism is related to the fact that numerous peripheral areas in southern Europe have become increasingly dependent on factors such as transfers or public investment and employment, and therefore are less exposed to changes in market conditions.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Effect Of Simulated Microwave Disinfection On The Linear Dimensional Change, Hardness And Impact Strength Of Acrylic Resins Processed By Different Polymerizing Cycles.

This study investigated the effect of simulated microwave disinfection (SMD) on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins under different polymerization cycles. Metal dies with referential points were embedded in flasks with dental stone. Samples of Classico and Vipi acrylic resins were made following the manufacturers' recommendations. The assessed polymerization cycles were: A-- water bath at 74ºC for 9 h; B-- water bath at 74ºC for 8 h and temperature increased to 100ºC for 1 h; C-- water bath at 74ºC for 2 h and temperature increased to 100ºC for 1 h;; and D-- water bath at 120ºC and pressure of 60 pounds. Linear dimensional distances in length and width were measured after SMD and water storage at 37ºC for 7 and 30 days using an optical microscope. SMD was carried out with the samples immersed in 150 mL of water in an oven (650 W for 3 min). A load of 25 gf for 10 sec was used in the hardness test. Charpy impact test was performed with 40 kpcm. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey's test (5%). The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in length in the A and D cycles for all periods, while the Vipi resin was steady in the A, B and C cycles for all periods. The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in width in the C and D cycles for all periods, and the Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. The hardness values for Classico resin were steady in all cycles and periods, while the Vipi resin was steady only in the C cycle for all periods. Impact strength values for Classico resin were steady in the A, C and D cycles for all periods, while Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. SMD promoted different effects on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins submitted to different polymerization cycles when after SMD and water storage were considered.

Effect Of Simulated Microwave Disinfection On The Linear Dimensional Change, Hardness And Impact Strength Of Acrylic Resins Processed By Different Polymerization Cycles.

This study investigated the effect of simulated microwave disinfection (SMD) on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins under different polymerization cycles. Metal dies with referential points were embedded in flasks with dental stone. Samples of Classico and Vipi acrylic resins were made following the manufacturers' recommendations. The assessed polymerization cycles were: A) water bath at 74 ºC for 9 h; B) water bath at 74 ºC for 8 h and temperature increased to 100 ºC for 1 h; C) water bath at 74 ºC for 2 h and temperature increased to 100 ºC for 1 h; and D) water bath at 120 ºC and pressure of 60 pounds. Linear dimensional distances in length and width were measured after SMD and water storage at 37 ºC for 7 and 30 days using an optical microscope. SMD was carried out with the samples immersed in 150 mL of water in an oven (650 W for 3 min). A load of 25 gf for 10 s was used in the hardness test. Charpy impact test was performed with 40 kpcm. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey's test (5%). The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in length in the A and D cycles for all periods, while the Vipi resin was steady in the A, B and C cycles for all periods. The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in width in the C and D cycles for all periods, and the Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. The hardness values for Classico resin were steady in all cycles and periods, while the Vipi resin was steady only in the C cycle for all periods. Impact strength values for Classico resin were steady in the A, C and D cycles for all periods, while Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. SMD promoted different effects on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins submitted to different polymerization cycles when after SMD and water storage were considered.

Effect Of Sodium Hypochlorite And Peracetic Acid On The Surface Roughness Of Acrylic Resin Polymerized By Heated Water For Short And Long Cycles.

To evaluate the surface roughness of acrylic resin submitted to chemical disinfection via 1% sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) or 1% peracetic acid (C2H4O3). The disc-shaped resin specimens (30 mm diameter ×4 mm height) were polymerized by heated water using two cycles (short cycle: 1 h at 74°C and 30 min at 100°C; conventional long cycle: 9 h at 74°C). The release of substances by these specimens in water solution was also quantified. Specimens were fabricated, divided into four groups (n = 10) depending on the polymerization time and disinfectant. After polishing, the specimens were stored in distilled deionized water. Specimens were immersed in 1% NaClO or 1% C2H4O3 for 30 min, and then were immersed in distilled deionized water for 20 min. The release of C2H4O3 and NaClO was measured via visual colorimetric analysis. Roughness was measured before and after disinfection. Roughness data were subjected to two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test. There was no interaction between polymerization time and disinfectant in influencing the average surface roughness (Ra, P = 0.957). Considering these factors independently, there were significant differences between short and conventional long cycles (P = 0.012), but no significant difference between the disinfectants hypochlorite and C2H4O3 (P = 0.366). Visual colorimetric analysis did not detect release of substances. It was concluded that there was the difference in surface roughness between short and conventional long cycles, and disinfection at acrylic resins polymerized by heated water using a short cycle modified the properties of roughness.

Isotopic view of vegetation and carbon and nitrogen cycles in a cerrado ecosystem, southeastern Brazil

Carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycles in savannas are strongly regulated by the seasonal distribution of precipitation and pulses of nutrients released during the wetting of the dry soil and are critical to the dynamics of microorganisms and vegetation. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of C and N isotope ratios as indicators of the cycling of these elements in a cerrado sensu stricto area, within a protected area in a State Park in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The foliar δ13C and δ15N values varied from -33.6 to -24.4 ‰ and -2.5 to 4.5 ‰, respectively. The δ13C values showed a consistent relationship with canopy height, revealing the importance of structure of the canopy over the C isotopic signature of the vegetation. Carbon isotopic variations associated with the length of the dry season indicated the importance of recent fixed C to the integrated isotopic signature of the leaf organic C. The studied Cerrado species showed a depleted foliar δ15N, but a wide range of foliar Nitrogen with no difference among canopy heights. However, seasonal variability was observed, with foliar δ15N values being higher in the transition period between dry and rainy seasons. The variation of the foliar C and N isotope ratios presented here was consistent with highly diverse vegetation with high energy available but low availability of water and N.

Modeling Two-Oscillator Circadian Systems Entrained by Two Environmental Cycles

Several experimental studies have altered the phase relationship between photic and non-photic environmental, 24 h cycles (zeitgebers) in order to assess their role in the synchronization of circadian rhythms. To assist in the interpretation of the complex activity patterns that emerge from these ""conflicting zeitgeber'' protocols, we present computer simulations of coupled circadian oscillators forced by two independent zeitgebers. This circadian system configuration was first employed by Pittendrigh and Bruce (1959), to model their studies of the light and temperature entrainment of the eclosion oscillator in Drosophila. Whereas most of the recent experiments have restricted conflicting zeitgeber experiments to two experimental conditions, by comparing circadian oscillator phases under two distinct phase relationships between zeitgebers (usually 0 and 12 h), Pittendrigh and Bruce compared eclosion phase under 12 distinct phase relationships, spanning the 24 h interval. Our simulations using non-linear differential equations replicated complex non-linear phenomena, such as ""phase jumps'' and sudden switches in zeitgeber preferences, which had previously been difficult to interpret. Our simulations reveal that these phenomena generally arise when inter-oscillator coupling is high in relation to the zeitgeber strength. Manipulations in the structural symmetry of the model indicated that these results can be expected to apply to a wide range of system configurations. Finally, our studies recommend the use of the complete protocol employed by Pittendrigh and Bruce, because different system configurations can generate similar results when a ""conflicting zeitgeber experiment'' incorporates only two phase relationships between zeitgebers.

Role of noise in population dynamics cycles

Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

On the resilience of long cycles in random graphs

In this paper we determine the local and global resilience of random graphs G(n,p) (p >> n(-1)) with respect to the property of containing a cycle of length at least (1 - alpha)n. Roughly speaking, given alpha > 0, we determine the smallest r(g) (G, alpha) with the property that almost surely every subgraph of G = G(n,p) having more than r(g) (G, alpha)vertical bar E(G)vertical bar edges contains a cycle of length at least (1 - alpha)n (global resilience). We also obtain, for alpha < 1/2, the smallest r(l) (G, alpha) such that any H subset of G having deg(H) (v) larger than r(l) (G, alpha) deg(G) (v) for all v is an element of V(G) contains a cycle of length at least (1 - alpha)n (local resilience). The results above are in fact proved in the more general setting of pseudorandom graphs.

Cryptic species, life cycles, and the phylogeny of Clytia (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa: Campanulariidae)

Medusae and polyps of Clytia are abundantly found in coastal marine environments and one species in the genus-Clytia hemisphaerica (Linnaeus, 1767)-has become an important experimental model. Yet, only 10 species in the genus have had their life cycle investigated. Most species of Clytia are also poorly described, and detailed life cycle and morphological studies are needed for accurate species-level identifications. Here, we investigated the life cycle of Clytia elsaeoswaldae Stechow, 1914, a species described for the tropical western Atlantic and subsequently considered conspecific to the nearly-cosmopolitan species Clytia gracilis (Sars, 1850) and Clytia hemisphaerica, originally described for the temperate North Atlantic. Based on observations of mature medusae and multiple colonies from southeastern Brazil and the U. S. Virgin Islands (type locality), our results show that C. elsaeoswaldae is morphologically distinct from C. gracilis and C. hemisphaerica. The morphological results are corroborated by a multigene phylogenetic analysis of the genus Clytia, which shows that C. gracilis-like species form a polyphyletic group of several species. These results suggest that the nearly-cosmopolitan distribution attributed to some species of Clytia may be due to the non-recognition of morphologically similar species with more restricted ranges.

Financial distress, financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.