Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Alternative splicing of exon 3 of the human growth hormone receptor is the result of an unusual genetic polymorphism.

Two isoforms of the human growth hormone receptor (hGHR), which differ in the presence (hGHRwt) or absence (hGHRd3) of exon 3, are expressed in the placenta. Specifically, three expression patterns are observed: only hGHRwt, only hGHRd3, or an approximately 1:1 combination of both isoforms. We investigated several potential regulatory mechanisms which might account for the expression of the hGHR isoforms. The frequency of hGHRd3 expression did not change when placentas from differing stages of gestation were examined, suggesting splicing was not developmentally regulated. However, when hGHR isoform expression patterns were examined in each component of a given placenta, it was evident that alternative splicing of exon 3 is individual-specific. Surprisingly, the individual-specific regulation of hGHR isoforms appears to be the result of a polymorphism in the hGHR gene. We analyzed hGHRwt and hGHRd3 expression in Hutterite pedigrees, and our results are consistent with a simple Mendelian inheritance of two differing alleles in which exon 3 is spliced in an "all-or-none" fashion. We conclude the alternative splicing of exon 3 in hGHR transcripts is the result of an unusual polymorphism which significantly alters splicing of the hGHR transcript and that the relatively high frequency (approximately 10%) of homozygous hGHRd3 expression suggests the possibility it may play a role in polygenic determined events.

A pain neuromatrix approach to patients with chronic pain

This paper presents an approach to rehabilitation of pain patients. The fundamental principles of the approach are (i) pain is an output of the brain that is produced whenever the brain concludes that body tissue is in danger and action is required, and (ii) pain is a multisystem output that is produced when an individual-specific cortical pain neuromatrix is activated. When pain becomes chronic, the efficacy of the pain neuromatrix is strengthened via nociceptive and non-nociceptive mechanisms, which means that less input, both nociceptive and non-nociceptive, is required to produce pain. The clinical approach focuses on decreasing all inputs that imply that body tissue is in danger and then on activating components of the pain neuromatrix without activating its output. Rehabilitation progresses to increase exposure to threatening input across sensory and non-sensory domains. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic and Cultural Transmission of Smoking Initiation: An Extended Twin Kinship Model

Background Considerable evidence from twin and adoption studies indicates that genetic and shared environmental factors play a significant role in the initiation of smoking behavior. Although twin and adoption designs are powerful to detect genetic and environmental influences, they do not provide information on the processes of assortative mating and parent–offspring transmission and their contribution to the variability explained by genetic and/or environmental factors. Methods We examined the role of genetic and environmental factors for smoking initiation using an extended kinship design. This design allows the simultaneous testing of additive and non-additive genetic, shared and individual-specific environmental factors, as well as sex differences in the expression of genes and environment in the presence of assortative mating and combined genetic and cultural transmission. A dichotomous lifetime smoking measure was obtained from twins and relatives in the Virginia 30,000 sample. Results Results demonstrate that both genetic and environmental factors play a significant role in the liability to smoking initiation. Major influences on individual differences appeared to be additive genetic and unique environmental effects, with smaller contributions from assortative mating, shared sibling environment, twin environment, cultural transmission and resulting genotype–environment covariance. The finding of negative cultural transmission without dominance led us to investigate more closely two possible mechanisms for the lower parent–offspring correlations compared to the sibling and DZ twin correlations in subsets of the data: (i) age × gene interaction, and (ii) social homogamy. Neither mechanism provided a significantly better explanation of the data, although age regression was significant. Conclusions This study showed significant heritability, partly due to assortment, and significant effects of primarily non-parental shared environment on smoking initiation.

Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web

Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge of the web. Being well-calibrated means that a person is realistic in his or her assessment of the level of knowledge that he or she possesses. This study finds that involvement leads to better calibration and that calibration is higher for procedural knowledge and common knowledge, as compared to declarative knowledge and specialized knowledge. Neither usage, nor experience, has any effect on calibration of knowledge of the web. No difference in calibration is observed between genders. But, in agreement with previous findings, this study also finds that males are more confident in their knowledge of the web. The results point out that calibration could be more a function of knowledge-specific factors and less that of individual-specific factors. The study also identifies flow and frustration with the web as consequences of calibration of knowledge of the web and draws the attention of future researchers to examine these aspects.

Infant nutrition and the gut microbiota

Establishment of the intestinal microbiota commences at birth and this colonisation is influenced by a number of factors including mode of delivery, gestational age, mode of feeding, environmental factors and host genetics. As this initial establishment may well influence the health of an individual later in life, it is imperative to understand this process. Therefore, this thesis set out to investigate how early infant nutrition influences the development of a healthy gut microbiota. As part of the INFANTMET project, the intestinal microbiota of 199 breastfed infants was investigated using both culture-dependent and culture-independent approaches. This study revealed that delivery mode and gestational age had a significant impact on early microbial communities. In order to understand host genotype-microbiota interactions, the gut microbiota composition of dichorionic triplets was also investigated. The results suggested that initially host genetics play a significant role in the composition of an individual’s gut microbiota, but by month 12 environmental factors are the major determinant. To investigate the origin of hydrogen sulphide in a case of nondrug- induced sulfhemoglobinemia in a preterm infant, the gut microbiota composition was determined. This analysis revealed the presence of Morganella morganii, a producer of hydrogen sulphide and hemolysins, at a relative abundance 38%, which was not detected in control infants. Following on from this, the negative and short term consequences of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis exposure on the early infant intestinal microbiota composition were demonstrated, particularly in breast-fed infants, which are recovered by day 30. Finally, the composition of the breast milk microbiota over the first three months of life was characterised. A core of 12 genera were identified amongst women and the remainder comprised some 195 genera which were individual specific and subject to variations over time. The results presented in this thesis have demonstrated that the development of the infant gut microbiota is complex and highly individual. Clear alterations in the intestinal microbiota establishment process in C-section delivered, preterm and antibiotic exposed infants were shown. Taken together, long-term health benefits for infants, particularly those vulnerable groups, may be conferred through the design of probiotic and prebiotic food ingredients and supplements.

Epigenetics of nutrition in aging

There is a need to identify factors that are able to influence health in old age and to develop interventions that could slow down the process of aging and its associated pathologies. Lifestyle modifications, and especially nutrition, appear to be promising strategies to promote healthy aging. Their impact on aging biomarkers has been poorly investigated. In the first part of this work, we evaluated the impact of a one-year Mediterranean-like diet, delivered within the framework of the NU-AGE project in 120 elderly subjects, on epigenetic age acceleration measures assessed with Horvath’s clock. We observed a rejuvenation of participants after nutritional intervention. The effect was more marked in the group of Polish females and in subjects who were epigenetically older at baseline. In the second part of this work, we developed a new model of epigenetic biomarker, based on a gene-targeted approach with the EpiTYPER® system. We selected six regions of interest (associated with ELOVL2, NHLRC1, SIRT7/MAFG, AIM2, EDARADD and TFAP2E genes) and constructed our model through a ridge regression analysis. In controls, estimation of chronological age was accurate, with a correlation coefficient between predicted and chronological age of 0.92 and a mean absolute deviation of 4.70 years. Our model was able to capture phenomena of accelerated or decelerated aging, in Down syndrome subjects and centenarians and offspring respectively. Applying our model to samples of the NU-AGE project, we observed similar results to the ones obtained with the canonical epigenetic clock, with a rejuvenation of the individuals after one-year of nutritional intervention. Together, our findings indicate that nutrition can promote epigenetic rejuvenation and that epigenetic age acceleration measures could be suitable biomarkers to evaluate their impact. We demonstrated that the effect of the dietary intervention is country-, sex- and individual-specific, thus suggesting the need for a personalized approach to nutritional interventions.

Strategic trade policy under uncertainty: Sufficient conditions for the optimality of ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes

In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

Intra-individual variation of serum prostate specific antigen levels in men with benign prostate biopsies

To determine the intra-individual (physiological) variation of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements in men after a benign prostatic biopsy. Sixty-four men were prospectively assessed, all of whom had a benign prostatic biopsy within the preceding 13 months. The degree of intra-individual variability was established by calculating the coefficient of variation on four PSA levels obtained from each patient weekly over a month. Six patients were subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer and their data are presented separately. In the remaining 58 patients the median (range) individual mean PSA value was 6.3 (0.5-34.1) ng/mL. The median (range) coefficient of variation within the group was 9.5 (2.4-76.1)%. There was a clear linear relationship between mean PSA level and the standard deviation. In 48 of the 63 patients analysed, the coefficient of variation for serum PSA values in the group as a whole was greater than the variation claimed for the assay technique. The significance of the linear relationship between PSA and the standard deviation is discussed, with particular reference to those men who had a benign prostate biopsy.

Revenue-neutral tax policies under price uncertainty: reply

In their comment on my 1990 article, Yeh, Suwanakul, and Mai extend my analysis-which focused attention exclusively on firm output-to allow for simultaneous endogeneity of price, aggregate output, and numbers of firms. They show that, with downward- sloping demand, industry output adjusts positively to revenue-neutral changes in the marginal rate of taxation. This result is significant for two reasons. First, we are more often interested in predictions about aggregate phenomena than we are in predictions about individual firms. Indeed, firm-level predictions are frequently irrefutable since firm data are often unavailable. Second, the authors derive their result under a set of conditions that appear to be more general than those invoked in my 1990 article. In particular, they circumvent the need to invoke specific assumptions about the nature of firms' aversions toward risk. I consider this a useful extension and I appreciate the careful scrutiny of my paper.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

Intolerance of uncertainty predicts fear extinction in amygdala-ventromedial prefrontal cortical circuitry

Background: Coordination of activity between the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) is important for fear-extinction learning. Aberrant recruitment of this circuitry is associated with anxiety disorders. Here, we sought to determine if individual differences in future threat uncertainty sensitivity, a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underly compromised recruitment of fear extinction circuitry. Twenty-two healthy subjects completed a cued fear conditioning task with acquisition and extinction phases. During the task, pupil dilation, skin conductance response, and functional magnetic resonance imaging were acquired. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction learning by splitting the extinction phase into early and late extinction. Threat uncertainty sensitivity was measured using self-reported intolerance of uncertainty (IU). Results: During early extinction learning, we found low IU scores to be associated with larger skin conductance responses and right amygdala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU scores were associated with no skin conductance discrimination and greater activity within the right amygdala to previously learned safety cues. In late extinction learning, low IU scores were associated with successful inhibition of previously learned threat, reflected in comparable skin conductance response and right amgydala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whilst high IU scores were associated with continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance and amygdala activity to threat vs. safety cues. In addition, high IU scores were associated with greater vmPFC activity to threat vs. safety cues in late extinction. Similar patterns of IU and extinction learning were found for pupil dilation. The results were specific for IU and did not generalize to self-reported trait anxiety. Conclusions: Overall, the neural and psychophysiological patterns observed here suggest high IU individuals to disproportionately generalize threat during times of uncertainty, which subsequently compromises fear extinction learning. More broadly, these findings highlight the potential of intolerance of uncertainty-based mechanisms to help understand pathological fear in anxiety disorders and inform potential treatment targets.

Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models

This study presents an approach to combine uncertainties of the hydrological model outputs predicted from a number of machine learning models. The machine learning based uncertainty prediction approach is very useful for estimation of hydrological models' uncertainty in particular hydro-metrological situation in real-time application [1]. In this approach the hydrological model realizations from Monte Carlo simulations are used to build different machine learning uncertainty models to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of the a deterministic output from hydrological model . Uncertainty models are trained using antecedent precipitation and streamflows as inputs. The trained models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. We used three machine learning models namely artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression to predict output uncertainties. These three models produce similar verification results, which can be improved by merging their outputs dynamically. We propose an approach to form a committee of the three models to combine their outputs. The approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model in the Brue catchment in UK and the Bagmati catchment in Nepal. The verification results show that merged output is better than an individual model output. [1] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press, 2013.