Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Examination of Curing Criteria for Cold In-Place Recycling (Phase 3: Calibration of Moisture Loss Indices and Development of Stiffness Gain Model), TR-609, 2011

In the previous study, moisture loss indices were developed based on the field measurements from one CIR-foam and one CIR-emulsion construction sites. To calibrate these moisture loss indices, additional CIR construction sites were monitored using embedded moisture and temperature sensors. In addition, to determine the optimum timing of an HMA overlay on the CIR layer, the potential of using the stiffness of CIR layer measured by geo-gauge instead of the moisture measurement by a nuclear gauge was explored. Based on the monitoring the moisture and stiffness from seven CIR project sites, the following conclusions are derived: 1. In some cases, the in-situ stiffness remained constant and, in other cases, despite some rainfalls, stiffness of the CIR layers steadily increased during the curing time. 2. The stiffness measured by geo-gauge was affected by a significant amount of rainfall. 3. The moisture indices developed for CIR sites can be used for predicting moisture level in a typical CIR project. The initial moisture content and temperature were the most significant factors in predicting the future moisture content in the CIR layer. 4. The stiffness of a CIR layer is an extremely useful tool for contractors to use for timing their HMA overlay. To determine the optimal timing of an HMA overlay, it is recommended that the moisture loss index should be used in conjunction with the stiffness of the CIR layer.

Validation of a 3D model for oxygen combustion in a circulating fluidized bed

In this thesis, a model called CFB3D is validated for oxygen combustion in circulating fluidized bed boiler. The first part of the work consists of literature review in which circulating fluidized bed and oxygen combustion technologies are studied. In addition, the modeling of circulating fluidized bed furnaces is discussed and currently available industrial scale three-dimensional furnace models are presented. The main features of CFB3D model are presented along with the theories and equations related to the model parameters used in this work. The second part of this work consists of the actual research and modeling work including measurements, model setup, and modeling results. The objectives of this thesis is to study how well CFB3D model works with oxygen combustion compared to air combustion in circulating fluidized bed boiler and what model parameters need to be adjusted when changing from air to oxygen combustion. The study is performed by modeling two air combustion cases and two oxygen combustion cases with comparable boiler loads. The cases are measured at Ciuden 30 MWth Flexi-Burn demonstration plant in April 2012. The modeled furnace temperatures match with the measurements as well in oxygen combustion cases as in air combustion cases but the modeled gas concentrations differ from the measurements clearly more in oxygen combustion cases. However, the same model parameters are optimal for both air and oxygen combustion cases. When the boiler load is changed, some combustion and heat transfer related model parameters need to be adjusted. To improve the accuracy of modeling results, better flow dynamics model should be developed in the CFB3D model. Additionally, more measurements are needed from the lower furnace to find the best model parameters for each case. The validation work needs to be continued in order to improve the modeling results and model predictability.

Searchig the links between "knowledge governance mechanisms", "the individual conditions of knowledge sharing", and "individual's knowledge sharing behaviour".

The objective of this study was to understand how organizational knowledge governance mechanisms affect individual motivation, opportunity, and the ability to share knowledge (MOA framework), and further, how individual knowledge-sharing conditions affect actual knowledge sharing behaviour. The study followed the knowledge governance approach and a micro-foundations perspective to develop a theoretical model and hypotheses, which could explain the casual relationships between knowledge governance mechanisms, individual knowledge sharing conditions, and individual knowledge sharing behaviour. The quantitative research strategy and multivariate data analysis techniques (SEM) were used in the hypotheses testing with a survey dataset of 256 employees from eleven military schools of Finnish Defence Forces (FDF). The results showed that “performance-based feedback and rewards” affects employee’s “intrinsic motivation towards knowledge sharing”, that “lateral coordination” affects employee’s “knowledge self-efficacy”, and that ”training and development” is positively related to “time availability” for knowledge sharing but affects negatively employee’s knowledge self-efficacy. Individual motivation and knowledge self-efficacy towards knowledge sharing affected knowledge sharing behaviour when work-related knowledge was shared 1) between employees in a department and 2) between employees in different departments, however these factors did not play a crucial role in subordinate–superior knowledge sharing. The findings suggest that individual motivation, opportunity, and the ability towards knowledge sharing affects individual knowledge sharing behaviour differently in different knowledge sharing situations. Furthermore, knowledge governance mechanisms can be used to manage individual-level knowledge sharing conditions and individual knowledge sharing behaviour but their affect also vary in different knowledge sharing situations.

Habitat variability and the individual variability of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

La variabilité spatiale et temporelle de l’écoulement en rivière contribue à créer une mosaïque d’habitat dynamique qui soutient la diversité écologique. Une des questions fondamentales en écohydraulique est de déterminer quelles sont les échelles spatiales et temporelles de variation de l’habitat les plus importantes pour les organismes à divers stades de vie. L’objectif général de la thèse consiste à examiner les liens entre la variabilité de l’habitat et le comportement du saumon Atlantique juvénile. Plus spécifiquement, trois thèmes sont abordés : la turbulence en tant que variable d’habitat du poisson, les échelles spatiales et temporelles de sélection de l’habitat et la variabilité individuelle du comportement du poisson. À l’aide de données empiriques détaillées et d’analyses statistiques variées, nos objectifs étaient de 1) quantifier les liens causaux entre les variables d’habitat du poisson « usuelles » et les propriétés turbulentes à échelles multiples; 2) tester l’utilisation d’un chenal portatif pour analyser l’effet des propriétés turbulentes sur les probabilités de capture de proie et du comportement alimentaire des saumons juvéniles; 3) analyser les échelles spatiales et temporelles de sélection de l’habitat dans un tronçon l’été et l’automne; 4) examiner la variation individuelle saisonnière et journalière des patrons d’activité, d’utilisation de l’habitat et de leur interaction; 5) investiguer la variation individuelle du comportement spatial en relation aux fluctuations environnementales. La thèse procure une caractérisation détaillée de la turbulence dans les mouilles et les seuils et montre que la capacité des variables d’habitat du poisson usuelles à expliquer les propriétés turbulentes est relativement basse, surtout dans les petites échelles, mais varie de façon importante entre les unités morphologiques. D’un point de vue pratique, ce niveau de complexité suggère que la turbulence devrait être considérée comme une variable écologique distincte. Dans une deuxième expérience, en utilisant un chenal portatif in situ, nous n’avons pas confirmé de façon concluante, ni écarté l’effet de la turbulence sur la probabilité de capture des proies, mais avons observé une sélection préférentielle de localisations où la turbulence était relativement faible. La sélection d’habitats de faible turbulence a aussi été observée en conditions naturelles dans une étude basée sur des observations pour laquelle 66 poissons ont été marqués à l’aide de transpondeurs passifs et suivis pendant trois mois dans un tronçon de rivière à l’aide d’un réseau d’antennes enfouies dans le lit. La sélection de l’habitat était dépendante de l’échelle d’observation. Les poissons étaient associés aux profondeurs modérées à micro-échelle, mais aussi à des profondeurs plus élevées à l’échelle des patchs. De plus, l’étendue d’habitats utilisés a augmenté de façon asymptotique avec l’échelle temporelle. L’échelle d’une heure a été considérée comme optimale pour décrire l’habitat utilisé dans une journée et l’échelle de trois jours pour décrire l’habitat utilisé dans un mois. Le suivi individuel a révélé une forte variabilité inter-individuelle des patrons d’activité, certains individus étant principalement nocturnes alors que d’autres ont fréquemment changé de patrons d’activité. Les changements de patrons d’activité étaient liés aux variables environnementales, mais aussi à l’utilisation de l’habitat des individus, ce qui pourrait signifier que l’utilisation d’habitats suboptimaux engendre la nécessité d’augmenter l’activité diurne, quand l’apport alimentaire et le risque de prédation sont plus élevés. La variabilité inter-individuelle élevée a aussi été observée dans le comportement spatial. La plupart des poissons ont présenté une faible mobilité la plupart des jours, mais ont occasionnellement effectué des mouvements de forte amplitude. En fait, la variabilité inter-individuelle a compté pour seulement 12-17% de la variabilité totale de la mobilité des poissons. Ces résultats questionnent la prémisse que la population soit composée de fractions d’individus sédentaires et mobiles. La variation individuelle journalière suggère que la mobilité est une réponse à des changements des conditions plutôt qu’à un trait de comportement individuel.

A study of sexuality following traumatic brain injury : moving towards the validation of a biopsychosocial model

L’étude de la sexualité dans le contexte des maladies neurologiques est un domaine émergent qui nous permet de mieux comprendre les corrélats cérébraux et neurocomportementaux de divers aspects de la sexualité. Les changements au sujet de la sexualité sont fréquents à la suite de troubles neurologiques tels que les blessures de la moelle épinière, la sclérose en plaques, l’accident vasculaire cérébral, l'épilepsie et les traumatismes craniocérébraux (TCC). Compte tenu de la complexité de la sexualité après un TCC, celle-ci doit être analysée à partir d'une perspective biopsychosociale qui comprend trois facteurs interdépendants : a) les facteurs neuropsychologiques et psychologiques, b) les variables médicales et physiques, et c) les facteurs relationnels. L’objectif de cette thèse était d’étudier certains éléments de la sexualité auprès de personnes ayant subi un TCC afin de fournir des preuves empiriques pour contribuer à la validation d’une perspective biopsychosociale de la sexualité après un TCC. Trois études quantitatives originales ont été effectuées auprès de personnes ayant subi un TCC léger, modéré ou grave et ayant reçu des services de réadaptation post-TCC, et d’un groupe de témoins en bonne santé, tous vivant dans la communauté. Les groupes étaient comparables en ce qui concerne l’âge, le sexe, le nombre d’années de scolarité, le statut d’emploi et relationnel, et le revenu annuel. Les variables ciblant la sexualité, incluses dans cette thèse, étaient la qualité de vie sexuelle, le comportement sexuel à risque, et la sociosexualité (p. ex., les différences individuelles en ce qui concerne la volonté d’une personne à avoir des relations sexuelles sans engagement). Les variables neuropsychologiques et psychologiques incluaient les fonctions exécutives, la dépression et l’anxiété. Les aspects médicaux et physiques englobaient les symptômes postcommotionnels. Les facteurs relationnels comprenaient les attitudes envers l'infidélité. Les résultats démontrent que par rapport aux témoins en santé, les individus avec un TCC ont montré une diminution de la qualité de vie sexuelle, alors que les groupes étaient comparables sur le plan du comportement sexuel à risque, de la sociosexualité et des attitudes envers l'infidélité. Par ailleurs, les résultats ont montré une différence entre les hommes et les femmes sur le plan de la sociosexualité (p. ex., plus restrictive chez la femme). Chez les personnes ayant subi un TCC, une faible qualité de vie sexuelle était significativement associée à un nombre élevé de symptômes postcommotionnels, un comportement sexuel plus à risque corrélait avec une plus grande fréquence de symptômes dysexécutifs, et une plus faible acceptation de l'infidélité était liée à une sociosexualité moins restrictive. Les résultats de ces trois études soutiennent une perspective biopsychosociale de la sexualité après le TCC. Elles apportent des connaissances nouvelles en ce qui a trait aux domaines de la sexualité qui peuvent être touchés après un TCC, ainsi qu’à certaines variables neuropsychologiques et psychologiques, médicales et physiques, et relationnelles qui sont associées à ces changements. Les implications théoriques, ainsi que pour la pratique clinique et la réadaptation sont discutées. Les limitations des études sont présentées et des recommandations pour la recherche sont proposées. Le modèle biopsychosocial peut être utilisé comme une référence pour guider la recherche future dans ce domaine. D’autres études sur la sexualité et le développement d'interventions multidisciplinaires dans ce domaine pour les personnes TCC sont nécessaires.

Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

Chemical composition and fermentation characteristics of grain and different parts of the stover from maize land races harvested at different growing periods in two zones of central Mexico

The objective of this work was to determine the rumen fermentation characteristics of maize land races used as forage in central Mexico. In vitro gas production (ml per 200 mg dry matter (DM)) incubations were carried out, and cumulative gas volumes were fitted to the Krishnamoorthy et al. (1991) model. The trial used a split-plot design with cultivation practices associated with maize colour (COL) as the main plot with three levels: white, yellow and black maize; growing periods (PER) were the split plots where PER1, PER2 and PER3 represented the first, second and third periods, respectively and two contrasting zones (Z1 = valley and Z2 = mountain) were used as blocking factors. The principal effects observed were associated with the maturity of the plants and potential gas production increased (P < 0.05) in stems (PER 1 = 51.8, PER2 = 56.3, PER3 = 58.4 ml per 200 mg DM) and in whole plant (PER 1 = 60.9, PER2 = 60.8, PER3= 70.9 ml per 200 mg DM). An inverse effect was observed with fermentation rates in leaves (P < 0.01) with 0.061, 0.053 and 0.0509 (per h) and in whole plant (P < 0.05) with 0.068, 0.057, 0.050 (per h) in PER1, PER2 and PER3 respectively. The digestibility of the neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) decreased with maturity especially in leaves (P < 0.05) with values of 0.71, 0.67 and 0.66 g/kg; in rachis (P < 0.01) 0.75, 0.72, and 0.65 in PER1, PER2 and PER3 respectively. The NDF content in leaves in leaves (668, 705 and 713 g/kg DM for PER1, PER2 and PER3, respectively), stems (580, 594 and 644 g/kg DM) and, husk (663, 774 and, 808 g/kg DM) increased (P < 0.05) with increasing plant maturity, rachis were significantly different between periods (P < 0.01). The structure with-the best nutritive characteristics was the husk, because it had the lowest fibre contents, especially in acid-detergent lignin, with values of 22.6, 28.6 and 37.6 g/kg DM in PER1, PER2 and PER3, respectively.

On the determinants of optimal border enforcement

We extend the current immigration-enforcement literature by incorporating both the practice of people smuggling and a role for non-wage income into a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model. We use the model economy to examine three questions. First, how does technological progress in the smuggling industry affect the level of migration and capital accumulation for a given level of enforcement? Second, do changes in border enforcement affect the level of migration, capital accumulation, and smuggling activity? Third, is the optimal level of enforcement sensitive to technological progress in the smuggling industry? We show that the government chooses to devote resources to border enforcement only if the deterrent effect on smugglers is large enough. Otherwise, it is not worth taxing host-country natives as the taxes paid will more than offset any income gain resulting from fewer migrants.

The vertical structure of oceanic Rossby waves: a comparison of high-resolution model data to theoretical vertical structures

Tests of the new Rossby wave theories that have been developed over the past decade to account for discrepancies between theoretical wave speeds and those observed by satellite altimeters have focused primarily on the surface signature of such waves. It appears, however, that the surface signature of the waves acts only as a rather weak constraint, and that information on the vertical structure of the waves is required to better discriminate between competing theories. Due to the lack of 3-D observations, this paper uses high-resolution model data to construct realistic vertical structures of Rossby waves and compares these to structures predicted by theory. The meridional velocity of a section at 24° S in the Atlantic Ocean is pre-processed using the Radon transform to select the dominant westward signal. Normalized profiles are then constructed using three complementary methods based respectively on: (1) averaging vertical profiles of velocity, (2) diagnosing the amplitude of the Radon transform of the westward propagating signal at different depths, and (3) EOF analysis. These profiles are compared to profiles calculated using four different Rossby wave theories: standard linear theory (SLT), SLT plus mean flow, SLT plus topographic effects, and theory including mean flow and topographic effects. Our results support the classical theoretical assumption that westward propagating signals have a well-defined vertical modal structure associated with a phase speed independent of depth, in contrast with the conclusions of a recent study using the same model but for different locations in the North Atlantic. The model structures are in general surface intensified, with a sign reversal at depth in some regions, notably occurring at shallower depths in the East Atlantic. SLT provides a good fit to the model structures in the top 300 m, but grossly overestimates the sign reversal at depth. The addition of mean flow slightly improves the latter issue, but is too surface intensified. SLT plus topography rectifies the overestimation of the sign reversal, but overestimates the amplitude of the structure for much of the layer above the sign reversal. Combining the effects of mean flow and topography provided the best fit for the mean model profiles, although small errors at the surface and mid-depths are carried over from the individual effects of mean flow and topography respectively. Across the section the best fitting theory varies between SLT plus topography and topography with mean flow, with, in general, SLT plus topography performing better in the east where the sign reversal is less pronounced. None of the theories could accurately reproduce the deeper sign reversals in the west. All theories performed badly at the boundaries. The generalization of this method to other latitudes, oceans, models and baroclinic modes would provide greater insight into the variability in the ocean, while better observational data would allow verification of the model findings.

Private or public? a taxonomy of optimal ownership and management regimes

We develop a theory of public versus private ownership based on value diversion by managers. Government is assumed to face stronger institutional constraints than has been assumed in previous literature. The model which emerges from these assumptions is fexible and has wide application. We provide amapping between the qualitative characteristics of an asset, its main use - including public goods characteristics, and spillovers toother assets values - and the optimal ownership and management regime. The model is applied to single and multiple related assets. We address questions such as; when is it optimal to have one of a pair ofr elated assets public and the other private; when is joint management desirable; and when should a public asset be managed by the owner of a related private asset? We show that while private ownership can be judged optimal in some cases solely on the basis of qualitative information, the optimality of any other ownership and management regimes relies on quantitative analysis. Our results reveal the situations in which policy makers will have difficulty in determining the opimal regime.

Contributions to the Theory of Optimal Tests

This paper considers tests which maximize the weighted average power (WAP). The focus is on determining WAP tests subject to an uncountable number of equalities and/or inequalities. The unifying theory allows us to obtain tests with correct size, similar tests, and unbiased tests, among others. A WAP test may be randomized and its characterization is not always possible. We show how to approximate the power of the optimal test by sequences of nonrandomized tests. Two alternative approximations are considered. The rst approach considers a sequence of similar tests for an increasing number of boundary conditions. This discretization allows us to implement the WAP tests in practice. The second method nds a sequence of tests which approximate the WAP test uniformly. This approximation allows us to show that WAP similar tests are admissible. The theoretical framework is readily applicable to several econometric models, including the important class of the curved-exponential family. In this paper, we consider the instrumental variable model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors (HAC-IV) and the nearly integrated regressor model. In both models, we nd WAP similar and (locally) unbiased tests which dominate other available tests.

Stability and convergence analysis of a neural model applied in nonlinear systems optimization

A neural model for solving nonlinear optimization problems is presented in this paper. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the convergence of the network to the equilibrium points that represent an optimal feasible solution. The network is shown to be completely stable and globally convergent to the solutions of nonlinear optimization problems. A study of the modified Hopfield model is also developed to analyze its stability and convergence. Simulation results are presented to validate the developed methodology.

Sm-Nd system in total rock open versus closed isotopic composition in zones of high deformation

High strain shear zones of Brasiliano age, developed in Paleoproterozoic basement gneiss of the Caicó region, Borborema Province, NE Brazil, were associated with medium- to low-grade metamorphism and deformational processes that transformed porphyritic augen gneiss into muscovite quartzite, modifying their original mineralogy and chemical properties. During the last hydrothermal event mobility of major, minor and trace elements was great, whereas the pattern of Rare Earth Elements was not changed. We carried out a Sm-Nd isotopic study in these rocks in order to understand the behavior of Nd isotopes during mylonite generation. TDM model ages at around 2.6 Ga and εNd (t) values for both protolith and transformed rock suggest that the Nd isotopic system remained closed, recording the original source rock signature, despite undergoing two superposed metamorphic events. These new Sm-Nd results provide important information on the geologic evolution of basement rocks in the central Rio Grande do Norte Terrane of the Borborema Province, NE Brazil.