TTIP and Public Procurement: Going beyond the tip of the iceberg. CEPS Policy Brief No. 339, March 2016

Trade negotiations involving international public procurement rules are on the rise, stimulating a growing interest in having a clear picture of the economic stakes involved, including the current level of international openness. A recent paper published by the European Centre for International Political Economy (Messerlin, 2016) made an attempt to provide a range of estimates for the EU and the US and found relatively low rates of import penetration. This analytical approach, however, looked only at the ‘tip of the procurement iceberg’, as the data used covered primarily only one modality of international procurement (direct cross-border), which is not the main avenue for international government procurement. Other modalities, such as procurement from foreign subsidiaries established in Europe, account for much more. Such an approach therefore ignores the main modalities through which foreign firms win EU contracts. Once these other main procurement modalities are taken into account, EU openness in procurement is much higher. Comparable data across all modalities do not yet exist for the US, but we do have clear evidence that the US has introduced the largest number of protectionist procurement measures since 2008 affecting all modalities for international procurement. Against this background, this Policy Brief makes four basic points: i. Public procurement is a key area of trade negotiations, and TTIP is no exception to this rule. ii. The existing levels of openness in procurement markets need to be assessed across all three main procurement modalities and not based only on direct cross-border procurement, which is not the main procurement avenue. According to this comprehensive metric, the EU market already has a high foreign participation rate, including by US companies. iii. Unfortunately, similar data do not exist for the US market. But there is growing evidence of discriminatory measures introduced in recent years, which impede the ability of EU firms to compete on a level-playing field in US procurement markets. iv. The importance of procurement as a key negotiating area requires better data and a greater analytical engagement.

An automatic method of above-water iceberg 3-D profiling based on autonomous surface craft (ASC) using surface images and LIDAR

This thesis reports on a novel method to build a 3-D model of the above-water portion of icebergs using surface imaging. The goal is to work towards the automation of iceberg surveys, allowing an Autonomous Surface Craft (ASC) to acquire shape and size information. After collecting data and images, the core software algorithm is made up of three parts: occluding contour finding, volume intersection, and parameter estimation. A software module is designed that could be used on the ASC to perform automatic and fast processing of above-water surface image data to determine iceberg shape and size measurement and determination. The resolution of the method is calculated using data from the iceberg database of the Program of Energy Research and Development (PERD). The method was investigated using data from field trials conducted through the summer of 2014 by surveying 8 icebergs during 3 expeditions. The results were analyzed to determine iceberg characteristics. Limitations of this method are addressed including its accuracy. Surface imaging system and LIDAR system are developed to profile the above-water iceberg in 2015.

The iceberg of suicide and self-harm in Irish adolescents: a population-based study

PURPOSE Suicide is a leading cause of death among adolescents. Self-harm is the most important risk factor for suicide, yet the majority of self-harm does not come to the attention of health services. The purpose of this study was to establish the relative incidence of adolescent suicide, hospital-treated self-harm and self-harm in the community. METHODS Annual suicide rates were calculated for 15-17 year-old in the Cork and Kerry region in Ireland based on data from the Central Statistics Office. Rates of hospital-treated self-harm were collected by the Irish National Registry of Deliberate Self-Harm. Rates of self-harm in the community were assessed using a survey of 3,881 adolescents, the Child and Adolescent Self-harm in Europe study. RESULTS The annual suicide rate was 10/100,000. Suicide was six times more common among boys than girls. The annual incidence rate of hospital-treated self-harm was approximately 344/100,000, with the female rate almost twice the male rate. The rate of self-harm in the community was 5,551/100,000, and girls were almost four times more likely to report self-harm. For every boy who died by suicide, 16 presented to hospital with self-harm and 146 reported self-harm in the community. For every female suicide, 162 girls presented to hospital with self-harm and 3,296 reported self-harm. CONCLUSIONS Gender differences in relative rates of self-harm and suicide are very large, with boys who have harmed themselves at particularly high risk of suicide. Knowledge of the relative incidence of self-harm and suicide in adolescents can inform prevention programmes and services.

Sedimentary evidence for a mid-Holocene iceberg-generated tsunami in a coastal lake, west Greenland

We report sedimentological evidence for a tsunami from a coastal lake at Innaarsuit, Disko Bugt (west Greenland), which was most likely generated by a rolling iceberg. The tsunami invaded the lake c. 6000 years ago, during a period of time when relative sea level (RSL) was falling quickly because of isostatic rebound. We use the background rate of RSL fall, together with an age model for the sediment sequence, to infer a minimum wave run-up during the event of c. 3.3 m. The stratigraphic signature of the event bears similarities to that described from studies of the early-Holocene Storegga slide tsunami in Norwegian coastal basins. Conditions conducive to iceberg tsunami include a supply of icebergs, deep water close to the shore, a depositional setting protected from storms or landslide tsunami, and a coastal configuration that has the potential to amplify the height of tsunami waves as water depths shallow and the waves approach and impact the coast. Future warming of polar regions will lead to increased calving and iceberg production, at a time when human use of polar coasts will also grow. We predict, therefore, that iceberg-generated tsunami will become a growing hazard in polar coastal waters, especially in areas adjacent to large, fast-flowing, marine-terminating ice streams that are close to human populations or infrastructure.

Research on the BEIC Curriculum: Unveiling What Lies Under the Tip of the Iceberg

Es un detenido análisis de la investigación The Value of Curricular lntrospection, en que se incorpora la realimentación dada por diversos participantes nacionales y extranjeros en el CILAP 2007, a quienes se les expuso los resultados iniciales de esta investigación. El estudio surgió de la disparidad de criterios entre diversos actores del BEIC, de la ELCL, respecto a la pertinencia que para la enseñanza del inglés a niños en Costa Rica tienen los principios comunicativos denominados interacción, inmersión parcial y aprendizaje por experiencia. Así, mientras diseñadores de currículo y profesores del BEIC consideraban estos principios altamente eficaces, buena parte del estudiantado que realizaba la práctica docente pensaba lo contrario.A detailed analysis is provided here of the research project titled The Value of Curricular Introspection. It also includes the feedback given by the national and foreign participants in CILAP 2007, to whom this study was presented. The investigation emerged from the diverse opinions existing among BEIC-ELCL actors regarding the pertinence of interaction, partial immersion and experiential learning communicative principies for the teaching of English to children in Costa Rica. Thus, whereas BEIC curriculum designers and professors considered these principies to be highly effective, many student-teachers in that program believe just the opposite.

Transport-Regional Equity Issue Revisited

Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. and Hewings G. J. D. Transport-regional equity issue revisited, Regional Studies. The objective of this paper is to analyse the relationship between transport and regional equity in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Furthermore, the existence of a trade-off between economic performance and regional equity is investigated as well. To do so, the paper develops a spatial computable general equilibrium model based on Brocker and Schneider`s approach of 2002 to implement comparative static analysis, explicitly incorporating iceberg transportation costs. Four activities are modelled, namely production, final demand, transportation and exports. Two production factors are assumed: labour and other factors. The model has 12 domestic regions and three external regions. Four counterfactual experiments are developed based on decreases in transportation costs due to a `distance shortening`. The main findings indicate that if the transport infrastructure improvement is focused only among poor regions, the promotion of regional equity is insignificant. If the transport infrastructure improvement links are concentrated among rich regions, there is an increase in regional income inequalities. However, if the improvements are targeted to the roads linking poor regions and rich ones, there is greater promotion of regional equity. The same result will occur when improvements are made to all road links of the state. [image omitted] Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. et Hewings G. J. D. La question du rapport entre le transport et l`equilibre regional vue sous un jour nouveau, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche a analyser le rapport entre le transport et l`equilibre regional en Minas Gerais au Bresil. En outre, on examine la presence d`un echange entre la performance economoique et l`equilibre regional. Pour le faire, on construit un modele geographique de l`equilibre general a utiliser sur ordinateur fonde sur l`approche de Brockner et Schneider en 2002 afin de mettre en oeuvre une analyse statique comparative qui comprend explicitement les frais de transport iceberg. On modelise quatre activites, a savoir, la production, la demande finale, le transport et l`exportation. On fait deux suppositions quant aux facteurs de production: la main-d`oevre et d`autres facteurs. Le modele embrasse douze regions internes et trois regions externes. On fait quatre experiences paradoxales fondees sur la baisse des frais de transport due a une `reduction des distances`. Les principaux resultats indiquent que si l`amelioration de l`equipement de transport ne porte que sur les regions defavorisees, la promotion de l`equilibre regional s`avere negligeable. Si l`amelioration de l`equipement de transport focalise les regions riches, il s`avere un creusement des ecarts des revenus regionaux. Cependant, si les ameliorations ciblent les routes qui relient les regions defavorisees aux regions riches, il s`avere une plus grande promotion de l`equilibre regional. Il en va de meme pour la situation ou on a apporte des amenagements a toutes les liaisons routieres de l`etat. Modele geographique de l`equilibre general a utiliser sur ordinateur Equilibre regional Peformance economique Frais de transport Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. und Hewings G. J. D. Die Wiederaufnahme der Frage von Verkehrswesen im Verhaltnis zu regionaler Fairness, Regional Studies. Dieser Aufsatz beabsichtigt, die Beziehung zwischen Verkehrswesen und regionaler Fairness in Minas Gerais (Brasilien) zu analysieren und zugleich auch das Vorkommen von Einbussen entweder bei wirtschaftlicher Leistung der regionaler Fairness zu untersuchen. Zu diesem Zwecke wird ein auf dem Ansatz von Brocker und Schneider (2002) aufbauendes raumliches komputables allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell entwickelt, um vergleichende statistische Analysen durchzufuhren, wobei verborgene `Eisberg`-Transportkosten ausdrucklich berucksichtigt werden. Es werden vier Unternehmenstatigk eiten aufgefuhrt: Herstellung, Nachfrage, Transportwesen und Exporte, und zwei Produktionsfaktoren vorausgesetzt: Arbeitskrafte und andere Faktoren. Das Modell umfasst zwolf Inlandsregionen und drei externe Regionen. Es werden vier gegensatzliche Experimente entwickelt, die auf einer Abnahme der Transportkosten infolge einer `Verkurzung der Entfernungen` beruhen. Die Hauptbefunde weisen darauf hin, dass die Forderung regionaler Fairness unbedeutend bleibt, wenn die Verbesserungen der Transportinfrastruktur sich nur auf minderbemittelte Regionen konzentrieren; werden die Verbesserungen der Verbindungen der Transportinfrastruktur in wohlhabenden Regionen durchgefuhrt, so nehmen regionale Einkommensunterschiede zu. Wenn die Verbesserungen jedoch auf Strassen abzielen, die wohlhabende Regionen mit weniger bemittelten verbinden, wird regionale Fairness starker gefordert. Das gleiche Ergebnis wird sich einstellen, wenn Verbesserungen an allen Strassenverbindungen des Staates vorgenommen werden. Raumliches, komputables, allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell Regionale Fairness Wirtschaftsleistung Transportkosten Almeida E. S. de, Haddad E. A. y Hewings G. J. D. Revisando el tema de la igualdad del transporte en las regiones, Regional Studies. El objetivo de este documento es analizar la relacion entre el transporte y la igualdad regional en Minas Gerais, Brasil. Asimismo investigamos la existencia de una compensacion entre el rendimiento economico y la igualdad regional. Para ello desarrollamos un modelo de equilibrio general computable y espacial basado en el enfoque de Brocker y Schneider en 2002 para hacer un analisis estatico y comparativo, explicitamente incorporando los costes ocultos de transporte. Se modelan cuatro actividades: la produccion, la demanda final, el transporte y las exportaciones. Suponemos que existen dos factores de produccion: mano de obra y otros factores. En este modelo, existen doce regiones internas y tres regiones externas. Desarrollamos cuatro experimentos contrafactuales basados en la disminucion de los costes de transporte debido a una `acortamiento de las distancias`. Los principales resultados indican que si la mejora de la infraestructura del transporte se centra solo entre las regiones mas pobres, el fomento de la igualdad regional es insignificante. Si los enlaces de la mejora de la infraestructura del transporte se concentran en las regiones ricas, aumentan las desigualdades de ingresos regionales. Sin embargo, si se mejoran los enlaces de carreteras entre las regiones pobres y ricas, se fomenta mejor la igualdad regional. El mismo resultado ocurre cuando se mejoran los enlaces de todas las carreteras del estado. Modelo de equilibrio general computable y espacial Igualdad regional Rendimiento economico Costes de transporte.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

Depositional environments for strata cored in CRP-3 (Cape Roberts Project), Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica: palaeoglaciological and palaeoclimatological inferences

Cape Roberts Project drill core 3 (CRP-3) was obtained from Roberts ridge, a sea-floor high located at 77°S, 12 km offshore from Cape Roberts in western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. The recovered core is about 939 m long and comprises strata dated as being early Oligocene (possibly latest Eocene) in age, resting unconformably on ∼ 116 m of basement rocks consisting of Palaeozoic Beacon Supergroup sediments. The core includes ten facies commonly occuring in five major associations that are repeated in particular sequences throughout the core and which are interpreted as representing different depositional environments through time. Depositional systems inferred to be represented in the succession include: outer shelf, inner shelf, nearshore to shoreface each under iceberg influence, deltaic and/or grounding-line fan, and ice proximal-ice marginal-subglacial (mass flow/rainout diamictite/subglacial till) singly or in combination. The record is taken to represent the initial talus/alluvial fan setting of a glaciated rift margin adjacent to the block-uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. Development of a deltaic succession upcore was probably associated with the formation of palaeo-Mackay valley with temperate glaciers in its headwaters. At that stage glaciation was intense enough to support glaciers ending in the sea elsewhere along the coast, but a local glacier was fluctuating down to the sea by the time the youngest part of CRP-3 was being deposited. Changes in palaeoenvironmental interpretations in this youngest part of the core are used to estimate relative glacial proximity to the drillsite through time. These inferred glacial fluctuations are compared with the global δ18O and Mg/Ca curves to evaluate the potential of glacial fluctuations on Antarctica for influencing these records of global change. Although the comparisons are tentative at present, the records do have similarities, but there are also some differences that require further evaluation.

Estimativa da prevalência da hanseníase pela investigação em demanda inespecífica de agências de saúde

Dada a importância das taxas de prevalência e incidência de uma moléstia para conhecimento de seu comportamento e planejamento de seu controle, em nível do coletivo, procedeu-se a estudo na cidade de Taubaté, Vale do Paraíba, SP (Brasil) da ocorrência da hanseníase em clientela de agências de saúde com o objetivo de explorar o emprego desta metodologia para estimar o "iceberg" epidemiológico da doença (i.e., o número total de casos, incluindo os existentes, mas não oficialmente registrados). Foram averiguados clientes com idade igual ou superior a quinze anos, independentemente de variáveis pessoais ( como sexo, idade, condição social, estado civil), pois admitiu-se ser conhecida a distribuição populacional da doença e as características dos serviços. Consideradas as peculiaridades locais (v.g. identidade das diferentes clientelas, disponibilidade de consultórios, horários de maior fluxo), o processo de amostragem utilizado foi o da casualização simples. Os doentes detectados em atividade, 40 em 10.013 pessoas examinadas, corresponderam ao índice de prevalência de 3,99/1.000, com intervalo de confiança (ao nível de 5% de confiabilidade) variando de 3.365 a 4.625/1.000, o que significa que o acréscimo mínimo estimado da prevalência é da ordem de 52% e máximo de 109%. Houve predomínio, entre os doentes, da forma indeterminada (35,0%) mais explicitamente quando são eles estratificados em registrados os casos novos: nesta categoria, a forma indeterminada atingiu 56,5%. Sua distribuição por faixa etária não se distanciou da observada com os dados de registro oficial, segundo se constatou pelo cotejo dos casos observados e esperados, calculados a partir dos indicadores populacionais; quanto à proporção sexual, registrou-se predomínio de elementos do sexo masculino.