Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin tason 2 epävarmuustarkastelut

Diplomityössä tarkastellaan Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin tason 2 epävarmuuksia. Tason 2 riskitutkimuksissa tutkitaan ydinvoimalaitosonnettomuuksia, joiden seurauksena osa reaktorin radioaktiivisista aineista vapautuu ympäristöön. Näiden tutkimuksien päätulos on suuren päästön vuotuinen taajuus ja se on pääosin todelliseen laitoshistoriaan perustuva tilastollinen odotusarvo. Tämän odotusarvon uskottavuutta voidaan parantaa huomioimalla merkittävimmät laskentaan liittyvät epävarmuudet. Epävarmuuksia laskentaan aiheutuu muiden muassa vakavan reaktorionnettomuuden ilmiöistä, turvallisuusjärjestelmien laitteista, inhimillisistä toiminnoista sekä luotettavuusmallin määrittelemättömistä osista. Diplomityössä kuvataan, kuinka epävarmuustarkastelut integroidaan osaksi Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisia riskianalyysejä. Tämä toteutetaan diplomityössä kehitetyillä apuohjelmilla PRALA:lla ja PRATU:lla, joiden avulla voidaan lisätä laitoshistorian perusteella muodostetut epävarmuusparametrit osaksi riskianalyysien luotettavuusdataa. Lisäksi diplomityössä on laskettu laskentaesimerkkinä Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen suuren päästön vuotuisen taajuuden vaihtelua kuvaava luottamusväli. Tämä laskentaesimerkki pohjautuu pääosin konservatiivisiin epävarmuusarvioihin, ei todellisiin tilastollisiin epävarmuuksiin. Laskentaesimerkin tulosten perusteella Loviisan suuren päästön taajuudella on laaja vaihteluväli; virhekertoimeksi saatiin 8,4 nykyisillä epävarmuusparametreilla. Suuren päästön taajuuden luottamusväliä voidaan kuitenkin tulevaisuudessa supistaa, kun hyödynnetään todelliseen laitoshistoriaan perustuvia epävarmuusparametreja.

Longitudinal selenium status in healthy British adults: assessment using biochemical and molecular biomarkers

Human selenium (Se) requirements are currently based on biochemical markers of Se status. In rats, tissue glutathione peroxidase-1 (Gpx1) mRNA levels can be used effectively to determine Se requirements; blood Gpx1 mRNA levels decrease in Se-deficient rats, so molecular biology-based markers have potential for human nutrition assessment. To study the efficacy of molecular biology markers for assessing Se status in humans, we conducted a longitudinal study on 39 subjects (age 45 +/- 11) in Reading, UK. Diet diaries (5 day) and blood were obtained from each subject at 2, 8, 17 and 23 weeks, and plasma Se, glutathione peroxidase (Gpx3) enzyme activity, and selenoprotein mRNA levels were determined. There were no significant longitudinal effects on Se biomarkers. Se intake averaged 48 +/- 14 mu g/d. Plasma Se concentrations averaged 1.13 +/- 0.16 mu mol/l. Plasma Se v. energy-corrected Se intake (ng Se/kJ/d) was significantly correlated, but neither Gpx3 activity v. Se intake (ng Se/kJ/d) nor Gpx3 activity v. plasma Se was significantly correlated. Collectively, this indicates that subjects were on the plateaus of the response curves. Selenoprotein mRNAs were quantitated in total RNA isolated from whole blood, but mRNA levels for Gpx1, selenoprotein H, and selenoprotein W (all highly regulated by Se in rodents), as well selenoprotein P, Gpx3, and phospholipid hydroperoxide glutathione peroxidase were also not significantly correlated with plasma Se. Thus selenoprotein molecular biomarkers, as well as traditional biochemical markers, are unable to further distinguish differences in Se status in these Se replete subjects. The efficacy of molecular biomarkers to detect Se deficiency needs to be tested in Se-deficient populations.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

Thermal effects in Ni/Au and Mo/Au gate metallization AlGaN/GaN HEMT's reliability

AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMT) are key devices for the next generation of high-power, high-frequency and high-temperature electronics applications. Although significant progress has been recently achieved [1], stability and reliability are still some of the main issues under investigation, particularly at high temperatures [2-3]. Taking into account that the gate contact metallization is one of the weakest points in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs, the reliability of Ni, Mo, Pt and refractory metal gates is crucial [4-6]. This work has been focused on the thermal stress and reliability assessment of AlGaN/GaN HEMTs. After an unbiased storage at 350 o C for 2000 hours, devices with Ni/Au gates exhibited detrimental IDS-VDS degradation in pulsed mode. In contrast, devices with Mo/Au gates showed no degradation after similar storage conditions. Further capacitance-voltage characterization as a function of temperature and frequency revealed two distinct trap-related effects in both kinds of devices. At low frequency (< 1MHz), increased capacitance near the threshold voltage was present at high temperatures and more pronounced for the Ni/Au gate HEMT and as the frequency is lower. Such an anomalous “bump” has been previously related to H-related surface polar charges [7]. This anomalous behavior in the C-V characteristics was also observed in Mo/Au gate HEMTs after 1000 h at a calculated channel temperatures of around from 250 o C (T2) up to 320 ºC (T4), under a DC bias (VDS= 25 V, IDS= 420 mA/mm) (DC-life test). The devices showed a higher “bump” as the channel temperature is higher (Fig. 1). At 1 MHz, the higher C-V curve slope of the Ni/Au gated HEMTs indicated higher trap density than Mo/Au metallization (Fig. 2). These results highlight that temperature is an acceleration factor in the device degradation, in good agreement with [3]. Interface state density analysis is being performed in order to estimate the trap density and activation energy.

AN ENTROPIC THEORY OF DAMAGE WITH APPLICATIONS TO CORROSION-FATIGUE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT

This dissertation demonstrates an explanation of damage and reliability of critical components and structures within the second law of thermodynamics. The approach relies on the fundamentals of irreversible thermodynamics, specifically the concept of entropy generation due to materials degradation as an index of damage. All failure mechanisms that cause degradation, damage accumulation and ultimate failure share a common feature, namely energy dissipation. Energy dissipation, as a fundamental measure for irreversibility in a thermodynamic treatment of non-equilibrium processes, leads to and can be expressed in terms of entropy generation. The dissertation proposes a theory of damage by relating entropy generation to energy dissipation via generalized thermodynamic forces and thermodynamic fluxes that formally describes the resulting damage. Following the proposed theory of entropic damage, an approach to reliability and integrity characterization based on thermodynamic entropy is discussed. It is shown that the variability in the amount of the thermodynamic-based damage and uncertainties about the parameters of a distribution model describing the variability, leads to a more consistent and broader definition of the well know time-to-failure distribution in reliability engineering. As such it has been shown that the reliability function can be derived from the thermodynamic laws rather than estimated from the observed failure histories. Furthermore, using the superior advantages of the use of entropy generation and accumulation as a damage index in comparison to common observable markers of damage such as crack size, a method is proposed to explain the prognostics and health management (PHM) in terms of the entropic damage. The proposed entropic-based damage theory to reliability and integrity is then demonstrated through experimental validation. Using this theorem, the corrosion-fatigue entropy generation function is derived, evaluated and employed for structural integrity, reliability assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Aluminum 7075-T651 specimens tested.

Combined exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food: are we ready for risk assessment and risk management?

It is nowadays recognized that the risk of human co-exposure to multiple mycotoxins is real. In the last years, a number of studies have approached the issue of co-exposure and the best way to develop a more precise and realistic assessment. Likewise, the growing concern about the combined effects of mycotoxins and their potential impact on human health has been reflected by the increasing number of toxicological studies on the combined toxicity of these compounds. Nevertheless, risk assessment of these toxins, still follows the conventional paradigm of single exposure and single effects, incorporating only the possibility of additivity but not taking into account the complex dynamics associated to interactions between different mycotoxins or between mycotoxins and other food contaminants. Considering that risk assessment is intimately related to the establishment of regulatory guidelines, once the risk assessment is completed, an effort to reduce or manage the risk should be followed to protect public health. Risk assessment of combined human exposure to multiple mycotoxins thus poses several challenges to scientists, risk assessors and risk managers and opens new avenues for research. This presentation aims to give an overview of the different challenges posed by the likelihood of human co-exposure to mycotoxins and the possibility of interactive effects occurring after absorption, towards knowledge generation to support a more accurate human risk assessment and risk management. For this purpose, a physiologically-based framework that includes knowledge on the bioaccessibility, toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics of multiple toxins is proposed. Regarding exposure assessment, the need of harmonized food consumption data, availability of multianalyte methods for mycotoxin quantification, management of left-censored data and use of probabilistic models will be highlight, in order to develop a more precise and realistic exposure assessment. On the other hand, the application of predictive mathematical models to estimate mycotoxins’ combined effects from in vitro toxicity studies will be also discussed. Results from a recent Portuguese project aimed at exploring the toxic effects of mixtures of mycotoxins in infant foods and their potential health impact will be presented as a case study, illustrating the different aspects of risk assessment highlighted in this presentation. Further studies on hazard and exposure assessment of multiple mycotoxins, using harmonized approaches and methodologies, will be crucial towards an improvement in data quality and contributing to holistic risk assessment and risk management strategies for multiple mycotoxins in foodstuffs.

Portuguese children exposure to multiple mycotoxins through food consumption: toward a holistic approach for multiple mycotoxins risk assessment

Humans can be exposed to multiple chemicals at once from a variety of sources, and human risk assessment of multiple chemicals poses several challenges to scientists, risk assessors and risk managers. Ingestion of food is considered a major route of exposure to many contaminants, namely mycotoxins, especially for vulnerable population groups, as children. A lack of sufficient data regarding mycotoxins children risk assessment, could contribute to an inaccuracy of the estimated risk. Efforts must be undertaken to develop initiatives that promote a broad overview of multiple mycotoxins risk assessment. The present work, developed within the MYCOMIX project, aims to assess the risk associated to the exposure of Portuguese children (< 3 years old) to multiple mycotoxins through consumption of foods primarily marketed for this age group. A holistic approach was developed applying deterministic and probabilistic tools to the calculation of mycotoxin daily intake values, integrating children food consumption (3-days food diary), mycotoxins occurrence (HPLC-UV, HPLC-FD, LC-MS/MS and GC-MS), bioaccessibility (standardized in vitro digestion model) and toxicological data (in vitro evaluation of cytotoxicity, genotoxicity and intestinal impact). A case study concerning Portuguese children exposure to patulin (PAT) and ochratoxin A (OTA), two mycotoxins co-occurring in processed cereal-based foods (PCBF) marketed in Portugal, was developed. Main results showed that there is low concern from a public health point of view relatively to PAT and OTA Portuguese children exposure through consumption of PCBF, considering the estimated daily intakes of these two mycotoxins (worst case scenarios, 22.930 ng/kg bw/day and 0.402 ng/kg bw/day, for PAT and OTA, respectively), their bioaccessibility and toxicology results. However, the present case study only concerns the risk associated with the consumption of PCBF and child diet include several other foods. The present work underlines the need to adopt a holistic approach for multiple mycotoxins risk assessment integrating data from exposure, bioacessibility and toxicity domains in order to contribute to a more accurate risk assessment.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Key issues in determining the ethics of research subject payment: the special case of drug abuse epidemiology

The authors identify key issues that researchers, funding bodies, ethics committees and ethicists might consider in contemplating research subject payment ethics. They argue that what is missing from the broader debate is due consideration of ethics committee decision processes; research subject reasons for participation; and current research practices. The authors explore these issues and how they relate to existing guidelines on voluntary consent, and arguments that have been proposed for and against research subject payments. (non- author abstract)

Development of a life cycle management system for remote products.

The research described in this thesis has been developed as a part of the Reliability and Field Data Management for Multi-Component Products (REFIDAM) Project. This project was funded under the Applied Research Grants Scheme administered by Enterprise Ireland. The project was a partnership between Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology and an industrial company, Thermo King Europe. The project aimed to develop a system to manage the information required for maintenance costing, cost of ownership, reliability assessment and improvement of multi-component products, by establishing information flows between the customer network and across the Thermo King organisation.

Embryonic and fetal development: fundamental research.

Much progress has been made over the past decades in the development of in vitro techniques for the assessment of chemically induced effects in embryonic and fetal development. In vitro assays have originally been developed to provide information on the mechanism of action of normal development, and have hence more adequately been used in fundamental research. These assays had to undergo extensive modification to be used in developmental toxicity testing. The present paper focuses on the rat whole embryo culture system, but also reviews modifications that were undertaken for the in vitro chick embryo system and the aggregate cultures of fetal rat brain cells. Today these tests cannot replace the existing in vivo developmental toxicity tests. They can, however, be used to screen chemicals for further development or further testing. In addition, these in vitro tests provide valuable information on the mechanisms of developmental toxicity and help to understand the relevancy of findings for humans. In vitro systems, combined with selected in vivo testing and pharmacokinetic investigations in animals and humans, can thus provide essential information for human risk assessment.

Exposição humana a substâncias químicas potencialmente tóxicas na dieta e os riscos para saúde

Humans are exposed to a variety of chemicals from the consumption of food, including undesirable compounds such as pesticides and mycotoxins. Chemical human risk assessment is a process intended to estimate the risk to a given population from the exposure to a chemical (or to a chemical group having the same mechanism of action). The process consists of four steps, namely hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Chemical dietary risk assessment is an essential procedure to establish safe food standards. In this review the tools and data sources currently used in the risk assessment process will be discussed.

Video-based analysis of Gait pathologies

L’analyse de la marche a émergé comme l’un des domaines médicaux le plus im- portants récemment. Les systèmes à base de marqueurs sont les méthodes les plus fa- vorisées par l’évaluation du mouvement humain et l’analyse de la marche, cependant, ces systèmes nécessitent des équipements et de l’expertise spécifiques et sont lourds, coûteux et difficiles à utiliser. De nombreuses approches récentes basées sur la vision par ordinateur ont été développées pour réduire le coût des systèmes de capture de mou- vement tout en assurant un résultat de haute précision. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons notre nouveau système d’analyse de la démarche à faible coût, qui est composé de deux caméras vidéo monoculaire placées sur le côté gauche et droit d’un tapis roulant. Chaque modèle 2D de la moitié du squelette humain est reconstruit à partir de chaque vue sur la base de la segmentation dynamique de la couleur, l’analyse de la marche est alors effectuée sur ces deux modèles. La validation avec l’état de l’art basée sur la vision du système de capture de mouvement (en utilisant le Microsoft Kinect) et la réalité du ter- rain (avec des marqueurs) a été faite pour démontrer la robustesse et l’efficacité de notre système. L’erreur moyenne de l’estimation du modèle de squelette humain par rapport à la réalité du terrain entre notre méthode vs Kinect est très prometteur: les joints des angles de cuisses (6,29◦ contre 9,68◦), jambes (7,68◦ contre 11,47◦), pieds (6,14◦ contre 13,63◦), la longueur de la foulée (6.14cm rapport de 13.63cm) sont meilleurs et plus stables que ceux de la Kinect, alors que le système peut maintenir une précision assez proche de la Kinect pour les bras (7,29◦ contre 6,12◦), les bras inférieurs (8,33◦ contre 8,04◦), et le torse (8,69◦contre 6,47◦). Basé sur le modèle de squelette obtenu par chaque méthode, nous avons réalisé une étude de symétrie sur différentes articulations (coude, genou et cheville) en utilisant chaque méthode sur trois sujets différents pour voir quelle méthode permet de distinguer plus efficacement la caractéristique symétrie / asymétrie de la marche. Dans notre test, notre système a un angle de genou au maximum de 8,97◦ et 13,86◦ pour des promenades normale et asymétrique respectivement, tandis que la Kinect a donné 10,58◦et 11,94◦. Par rapport à la réalité de terrain, 7,64◦et 14,34◦, notre système a montré une plus grande précision et pouvoir discriminant entre les deux cas.

Clinical evaluation of amitriptyline for the control of chronic pain caused by temporomandibular joint disorders

Temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is characterized by a combination of symptoms affecting the temporomandibular joint and/or chewing muscles. The two most common clinical TMD symptoms are pain and dysfunction. Pain is usually caused by dysfunction, and emergency therapy has focused on controlling it. Recent investigations into TMD have led to the recommendation of antidepressants as a supporting treatment against constant neuralgic pain. The aim of this double-blind study was to verify the efficiency of antidepressants (amitriptyline) as a support in the treatment of chronic TMD pain. Twelve female volunteers presenting chronic TMD pain were divided into two groups and treated for 14 days: Group 1 with 25 mg/day of amitriptyline and Group 2 with a placebo. The intensity of pain and discomfort was evaluated daily, using a visual analog scale (VAS), over a period of seven days preceding the treatment (baseline), during the 14-day treatment, and for seven days after the treatment. The results revealed a significant reduction of pain and discomfort in Group 1 (75%) compared to Group 2 (28%) during the three weeks beginning at baseline (p< 0.01). Amitriptyline proved to be an efficient alternative treatment for chronic pain in TMD patients. Copyright © 2003 by CHROMA, Inc.