Impact de la prophylaxie hormonale sur les fractures du fémur proximal des femmes postménopausiques: une étude de simulation. [Impact of hormonal prevention on fractures of the proximal femur in postmenopausal women: a simulation study].

A simulation model of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on hip fractures and their consequences is based on a population of 100,000 post-menopausal women. This cohort is confronted with literature derived probabilities of cancers (endometrium or breast, which are contra-indications to HRT), hip fracture, disability requiring nursing home or home care, and death. Administration of HRT for life prevents 55,5% of hip fractures, 22,6% of years with home care and 4,4% of years in nursing homes. If HRT is administered for 15 years, these results are 15,5%, 10% and 2,2%, respectively. A slight gain in life expectancy is observed for both durations of HRT. The net financial loss in the simulated population is 222 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.25) for lifelong administration of HRT, and 153 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.42) if HRT is administered during 15 years.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures conflict. PURPOSE: To assess the risk for hip and nonspine fractures associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction among prospective cohorts. DATA SOURCES: Search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (1946 to 16 March 2014) and reference lists of retrieved articles without language restriction. STUDY SELECTION: Two physicians screened and identified prospective cohorts that measured thyroid function and followed participants to assess fracture outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION: One reviewer extracted data using a standardized protocol, and another verified data. Both reviewers independently assessed methodological quality of the studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: The 7 population-based cohorts of heterogeneous quality included 50,245 participants with 1966 hip and 3281 nonspine fractures. In random-effects models that included the 5 higher-quality studies, the pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism versus euthyrodism were 1.38 (95% CI, 0.92 to 2.07) for hip fractures and 1.20 (CI, 0.83 to 1.72) for nonspine fractures without statistical heterogeneity (P = 0.82 and 0.52, respectively; I2= 0%). Pooled estimates for the 7 cohorts were 1.26 (CI, 0.96 to 1.65) for hip fractures and 1.16 (CI, 0.95 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures. When thyroxine recipients were excluded, the HRs for participants with subclinical hyperthyroidism were 2.16 (CI, 0.87 to 5.37) for hip fractures and 1.43 (CI, 0.73 to 2.78) for nonspine fractures. For participants with subclinical hypothyroidism, HRs from higher-quality studies were 1.12 (CI, 0.83 to 1.51) for hip fractures and 1.04 (CI, 0.76 to 1.42) for nonspine fractures (P for heterogeneity = 0.69 and 0.88, respectively; I2 = 0%). LIMITATIONS: Selective reporting cannot be excluded. Adjustment for potential common confounders varied and was not adequately done across all studies. CONCLUSION: Subclinical hyperthyroidism might be associated with an increased risk for hip and nonspine fractures, but additional large, high-quality studies are needed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swiss National Science Foundation.

Spine bone texture assessed by trabecular bone score (TBS) predicts osteoporotic fractures in men: The Manitoba Bone Density Program.

INTRODUCTION: One quarter of osteoporotic fractures occur in men. TBS, a gray-level measurement derived from lumbar spine DXA image texture, is related to microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Previous studies reported the ability of spine TBS to predict osteoporotic fractures in women. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of TBS to predict clinical osteoporotic fractures in men. METHODS: 3620 men aged ≥50 (mean 67.6years) at the time of baseline DXA (femoral neck, spine) were identified from a database (Province of Manitoba, Canada). Health service records were assessed for the presence of non-traumatic osteoporotic fracture after BMD testing. Lumbar spine TBS was derived from spine DXA blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to analyze time to first fracture adjusted for clinical risk factors (FRAX without BMD), osteoporosis treatment and BMD (hip or spine). RESULTS: Mean followup was 4.5years. 183 (5.1%) men sustain major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 91 (2.5%) clinical vertebral fractures (CVF), and 46 (1.3%) hip fractures (HF). Correlation between spine BMD and spine TBS was modest (r=0.31), less than correlation between spine and hip BMD (r=0.63). Significantly lower spine TBS were found in fracture versus non-fracture men for MOF (p<0.001), HF (p<0.001) and CVF (p=0.003). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for incident fracture discrimination with TBS was significantly better than chance (MOF AUC=0.59, p<0.001; HF AUC=0.67, p<0.001; CVF AUC=0.57, p=0.032). TBS predicted MOF and HF (but not CVF) in models adjusted for FRAX without BMD and osteoporosis treatment. TBS remained a predictor of HF (but not MOF) after further adjustment for hip BMD or spine BMD. CONCLUSION: We observed that spine TBS predicted MOF and HF independently of the clinical FRAX score, HF independently of FRAX and BMD in men. Studies with more incident fractures are needed to confirm these findings.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Predictive ability of heel quantitative ultrasound for incident fractures: an individual-level meta-analysis.

UNLABELLED: The relationship between bone quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and fracture risk was estimated in an individual level data meta-analysis of 9 prospective studies of 46,124 individuals and 3018 incident fractures. Low QUS is associated with an increase in fracture risk, including hip fracture. The association with osteoporotic fracture decreases with time. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the association between parameters of QUS and risk of fracture. METHODS: In an individual-level analysis, we studied participants in nine prospective cohorts from Asia, Europe and North America. Heel broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA dB/MHz) and speed of sound (SOS m/s) were measured at baseline. Fractures during follow-up were collected by self-report and in some cohorts confirmed by radiography. An extension of Poisson regression was used to examine the gradient of risk (GR, hazard ratio per 1 SD decrease) between QUS and fracture risk adjusted for age and time since baseline in each cohort. Interactions between QUS and age and time since baseline were explored. RESULTS: Baseline measurements were available in 46,124 men and women, mean age 70 years (range 20-100). Three thousand and eighteen osteoporotic fractures (787 hip fractures) occurred during follow-up of 214,000 person-years. The summary GR for osteoporotic fracture was similar for both BUA (1.45, 95 % confidence intervals (CI) 1.40-1.51) and SOS (1.42, 95 % CI 1.36-1.47). For hip fracture, the respective GRs were 1.69 (95 % CI, 1.56-1.82) and 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.48-1.72). However, the GR was significantly higher for both fracture outcomes at lower baseline BUA and SOS (p < 0.001). The predictive value of QUS was the same for men and women and for all ages (p > 0.20), but the predictive value of both BUA and SOS for osteoporotic fracture decreased with time (p = 0.018 and p = 0.010, respectively). For example, the GR of BUA for osteoporotic fracture, adjusted for age, was 1.51 (95 % CI 1.42-1.61) at 1 year after baseline, but at 5 years, it was 1.36 (95 % CI 1.27-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that quantitative ultrasound is an independent predictor of fracture for men and women particularly at low QUS values.

Surgically-treated Hip Fracture in older People. With Special Emphasis on Mortality Analysis

Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Cervical and trochanteric fractures have a different morphometry, surgical treatment, and outcome. Polypharmacy, common in older people, is associated with increased mortality. The risk factors for mortality can be identified based on cause-of-death analysis. In this population-based study, 461 older, surgically in 1999-2000 treated hip fracture patients were enrolled. Incidence, morphometry, medication, mortality, and cause-of-death were analysed. Hip fractures were most commonly sustained by women, occurred mostly indoors, and often in institutions. One in four patients had sustained a previous fracture. Routine clinical radiographs revealed no differences in the hip geometry between hip fracture types. Age-adjusted mortality was higher in men than in women during the follow-up. Chronic lung disease and male sex were predictors of mortality after cervical fracture. In men, potent anticholinergics were associated with excess age-adjusted mortality. Men were more likely to die from circulatory disease and dementia after hip fracture than women. Mortality after hip fracture was 3-fold higher than that of the general population, including every cause-of-death class. Fracture prevention in institutions and homes, indoor safety measures, and treatment of chronic lung diseases should be encouraged. Hip morphometry analyses require more accurate measures than that provided by routine radiographs. Careful use of potent anticholinergics may reduce mortality. Compared to the general population, excess mortality after hip fracture was evident up to 9 years after hip fracture. Cause-of-death analysis indicates that all major comorbidities require optimal treatment after hip fracture surgery.

Fractures in older people - incidence, predictors and consequences

In older populations, fractures are common and the consequences of fractures may be serious both for an individual and for society. However, information is scarce about the incidence, predictors and consequences of fractures in population-based unselected cohorts including both men and women and a long follow-up. The objective of this study was to analyse the incidence and predictors of fractures as well as functional decline and excess mortality due to fractures, among 482 men and 695 women aged 65 or older in the municipality of Lieto, Finland from 1991 until 2002. In analyses, Poisson’s, Cox proportional Hazards and Cumulative Logistic regression models were used for the control of several confounding variables. During the 12-year follow-up with a total of 10 040 person-years (PY), 307 (26%) persons sustained altogether 425 fractures of which 77% were sustained by women. The total incidence of fractures was 53.4 per 1000 PY (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 47.9 - 59.5) in women and 24.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 20.4 - 30.4) in men. The incidence rates of fractures at any sites and hip fractures were associated with increasing age. No significant changes in the ageadjusted incidence rates of fractures were found in either gender during the 12-year follow-up. The predictors of fractures varied by gender. In multivariate analyses, reduced handgrip strength and body mass index (BMI) lower than 30 in women and a large number of depressive symptoms in men were independent predictors of fractures. A compression fracture in one or more thoracic or upper lumbar vertebras on chest radiography at baseline was associated with subsequent fractures in both genders. Lower body fractures independently predicted both short- (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline in mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) performance during the 8-year follow-up. Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during longterm follow-up. In the 12-year follow-up, hip fractures in men (Hazard Ratio [HR] 8.1, 95% CI: 4.4-14.9) and in women (HR 3.0, 95% CI: 1.9-4.9), and fractures at the proximal humerus in men (HR 5.4, 95% CI: 1.6-17.7) were independently associated with excess mortality. In addition, leisure time inactivity in physical exercise predicted independently both functional decline and excess mortality. Fractures are common among older people posing serious individual consequences. Further studies about the effectiveness of preventing falls and fractures as well as improving care and rehabilitation after fractures are needed.

Determinants of Bone Strength and Predictors of Hip Fracture among Finnish Adults. Results from the Health 2000 Survey and the Mini-Finland Health Survey

The objective of this thesis was to identify the determinants of bone strength and predictors of hip fracture in representative samples of Finnish adults. A secondary objective was to construct a simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction over a 10-year follow-up period. The study was based on the Health 2000 Survey conducted during 2000 to 2001 (men and women aged 30 years or over, n=6 035) and the Mini-Finland Health Survey conducted during 1978 to 1980 (women aged 45 years or over, n=2 039). Study subjects participated in health interviews and comprehensive health examination. In the Health 2000 Survey, bone strength was assessed by means of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS). The follow-up information about hip fractures was drawn from the National Hospital Discharge Register. In this study, age, weight, height, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (S-25(OH)D), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption as well as menopause and eventual HRT in women were found to be associated with calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS). Parity was associated with a decreased risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Age, height, weight or waist circumference, quantitative ultrasound index (QUI), S-25(OH)D and fall-related factors, such as maximal walking speed, Parkinson’s disease, and the number of prescribed CNS active medication were significant independent predictors of hip fracture. At the population level, the incremental value of QUS appeared to be minor in hip fracture prediction when the fall-related risk factors were taken into account. A simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction presented in this study was based on readily available factors (age, gender, height, waist circumference, and fallrelated factors). Prospective studies are needed to test this model in patient-based study populations.

Strategies to prevent falls and fractures in hospitals and care homes and effect of cognitive impairment: systematic review and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the evidence for strategies to prevent falls or fractures in residents in care homes and hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of dementia and cognitive impairment. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analyses of studies grouped by intervention and setting (hospital or care home). Meta-regression to investigate the effects of dementia and of study quality and design. DATA SOURCES: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychInfo, Cochrane Database, Clinical Trials Register, and hand searching of references from reviews and guidelines to January 2005. RESULTS: 1207 references were identified, including 115 systematic reviews, expert reviews, or guidelines. Of the 92 full papers inspected, 43 were included. Meta-analysis for multifaceted interventions in hospital (13 studies) showed a rate ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.997) for falls but no significant effect on the number of fallers or fractures. For hip protectors in care homes (11 studies) the rate ratio for hip fractures was 0.67 (0.46 to 0.98), but there was no significant effect on falls and not enough studies on fallers. For all other interventions (multifaceted interventions in care homes; removal of physical restraints in either setting; fall alarm devices in either setting; exercise in care homes; calcium/vitamin D in care homes; changes in the physical environment in either setting; medication review in hospital) meta-analysis was either unsuitable because of insufficient studies or showed no significant effect on falls, fallers, or fractures, despite strongly positive results in some individual studies. Meta-regression showed no significant association between effect size and prevalence of dementia or cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that multifaceted interventions in hospital reduce the number of falls and that use of hip protectors in care homes prevents hip fractures. There is insufficient evidence, however, for the effectiveness of other single interventions in hospitals or care homes or multifaceted interventions in care homes.

The fall descriptions and health characteristics of older adults with hip fracture : a mixed methods study

Background: In light of the multifactorial etiology of fall-related hip fracture, knowledge of fall circumstances may be especially valuable when placed in the context of the health of the person who falls. We aimed to investigate the circumstances surrounding fall-related hip fractures and to describe fall circumstances in relation to participants' health and functional characteristics. Methods: The fall circumstances of 125 individuals (age >= 50 years) with hip fracture were investigated using semi-structured interviews. Data concerning participants' health (comorbidities and medications) and function (self-reported performance of mobility, balance, personal activities of daily living and physical activity, previous falls and hand grip strength) were collected via medical records, questionnaires and dynamometry. Using a mixed methods design, both data sets were analysed separately and then merged in order to provide a comprehensive description of fall events and identify eventual patterns in the data. Results: Fall circumstances were described as i) Activity at the time of the fall: Positional change (n = 24, 19%); Standing (n = 16, 13%); Walking (n = 71, 57%); Balance challenging (n = 14, 11%) and ii) Nature of the fall: Environmental (n = 32, 26%); Physiological (n = 35, 28%); Activity-related indoor (n = 8, 6%) and outdoor (n = 8, 6%); Trips and slips on snow (n = 20, 16%) and in snow-free conditions (n = 12, 10%) and Unknown (n = 10, 8%). We observed the following patterns regarding fall circumstances and participants' health: those who fell i) during positional change had the poorest functional status; ii) due to environmental reasons (indoors) had moderate physical function, but high levels of comorbidity and fall risk increasing medications; iii) in snow-free environments (outdoors) appeared to have a poorer health and functional status than other outdoor groups. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that patterns exist in relation to the falls circumstances and health characteristics of people with hip fracture which build upon that previously reported. These patterns, when verified, can provide useful information as to the ways in which fall prevention strategies can be tailored to individuals of varying levels of health and function who are at risk for falls and hip fracture.

Delay from fracture to hospital admission: a new risk factor for hip fracture mortality?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Serum Metalloproteinases 2 and 9 as Predictors of Gait Status, Pressure Ulcer and Mortality after Hip Fracture

Introduction: The aim of this study is to evaluate the serum activity of metalloproteinases (MMPs) -2 and -9 as predictors of pressure ulcer (PU), gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. Methods: Eighty-seven patients over the age of 65 admitted to the orthopedic unit from January to December 2010 with hip fracture were prospectively evaluated. Upon admission, patient demographic information, including age, gender and concomitant diseases, was recorded. Blood samples were taken for analysis of MMP -2 and -9 activity by gel zymography and for biochemical examination within the first 72 hours of the patient's admission, after clinical stabilization. The fracture pattern (neck, trochanteric or subtrochanteric), time from admission to surgery, surgery duration and length of hospital stay were also recorded. Results: Two patients were excluded due to the presence of pathological fractures (related to cancer), and three patients were excluded due to the presence of PU before admission. Eighty-two patients, with a mean age of 80.4 ± 7.3 years, were included in the analysis. Among these patients, 75.6% were female, 59.8% had PU, and 13.4% died 6 months after hip fracture. All patients underwent hip fracture repair. In a univariate analysis, there were no differences in serum MMP activity between hip fracture patients with or without PU. In addition, the multiple logistic regression analysis models, which were adjusted by age, gender, length of hospital stay and C-reactive protein, showed that the pro-MMP-9 complexed with neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin form (130 kDa) was associated with gait status recovery 6 months after hip fracture. Conclusions: In conclusion, serum pro-MMP-9 is a predictor of gait status recovery 6 months after hip fracture. © 2013 Gumieiro et al.

Mini Nutritional Assessment predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture.

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Score (ASA) as predictors of gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. A total of eighty-eight consecutive patients over the age of 65 years with hip fracture admitted to an orthopaedic unit were prospectively evaluated. Within the first 72 h of admission, each patient's characteristics were recorded, and the MNA, the NRS 2002 and the ASA were performed. Gait status and mortality were evaluated 6 months after hip fracture. Of the total patients, two were excluded because of pathological fractures. The remaining eighty-six patients (aged 80·2 (sd 7·3) years) were studied. Among these patients 76·7 % were female, 69·8 % walked with or without support and 12·8 % died 6 months after the fracture. In a multivariate analysis, only the MNA was associated with gait status 6 months after hip fracture (OR 0·773, 95 % CI 0·663, 0·901; P= 0·001). In the Cox regression model, only the MNA was associated with mortality 6 months after hip fracture (hazard ratio 0·869, 95 % CI 0·757, 0·998; P= 0·04). In conclusion, the MNA best predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. These results suggest that the MNA should be included in the clinical stratification of patients with hip fracture to identify and treat malnutrition in order to improve the outcomes.