The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting

Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.

June 1987 GISMOS experiment: Preliminary report on high time resolution, multi-radar measurements

Data collected by ground magnetometers and high latitude radars during a small isolated substorm are discussed in terms of the global changes in convection during the substorm. This substorm was observed during the international GISMOS (Global Ionospheric Simultaneous Measurements of Substorms) Experiment of 1 – 5 June 1987 and the array of observations discussed here span the night sector from approximately dusk to dawn. The substorm, observed by the Sondrestrom radar and auroral and midlatitude magnetometers is associated with a polar cap contraction observed near dusk by the EISCAT radar.

The dependence of high-latitude dayside ionospheric flows on the North-South component of the IMF: A high time resolution correlation analysis using EISCAT “Polar” and AMPTE UKS and IRM data

In 1984 and 1985 a series of experiments was undertaken in which dayside ionospheric flows were measured by the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, while observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) were made by the AMPTE UKS and IRM spacecraft upstream from the Earth's bow shock. As a result, 40 h of simultaneous data were acquired, which are analysed in this paper to investigate the relationship between the ionospheric flow and the North-South (Bz) component of the IMF. The ionospheric flow data have 2.5 min resolution, and cover the dayside local time sector from ∼ 09:30 to ∼ 18:30 M.L.T. and the latitude range from 70.8° to 74.3°. Using cross-correlation analysis it is shown that clear relationships do exist between the ionospheric flow and IMF Bz, but that the form of the relations depends strongly on latitude and local time. These dependencies are readily interpreted in terms of a twinvortex flow pattern in which the magnitude and latitudinal extent of the flows become successively larger as Bz becomes successively more negative. Detailed maps of the flow are derived for a range of Bz values (between ± 4 nT) which clearly demonstrate the presence of these effects in the data. The data also suggest that the morning reversal in the East-West component of flow moves to earlier local times as Bz, declines in value and becomes negative. The correlation analysis also provides information on the ionospheric response time to changes in IMF Bz, it being found that the response is very rapid indeed. The most rapid response occurs in the noon to mid-afternoon sector, where the westward flows of the dusk cell respond with a delay of 3.9 ± 2.2 min to changes in the North-South field at the subsolar magnetopause. The flows appear to evolve in form over the subsequent ~ 5 min interval, however, as indicated by the longer response times found for the northward component of flow in this sector (6.7 ±2.2 min), and in data from earlier and later local times. No evidence is found for a latitudinal gradient in response time; changes in flow take place coherently in time across the entire radar field-of-view.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

MODIS aerosol optical depth Retrievals with high spatial resolution over an urban area using the critical reflectance

[1] The retrieval of aerosol optical depth (Ta) over land by satellite remote sensing is still a challenge when a high spatial resolution is required. This study presents a tool that uses satellite measurements to dynamically identify the aerosol optical model that best represents the optical properties of the aerosol present in the atmosphere. We use aerosol critical reflectance to identify the single scattering albedo of the aerosol layer. Two case studies show that the Sao Paulo region can have different aerosol properties and demonstrates how the dynamic methodology works to identify those differences to obtain a better T a retrieval. The methodology assigned the high single scattering albedo aerosol model (pi o( lambda = 0.55) = 0.90) to the case where the aerosol source was dominated by biomass burning and the lower pi(o) model (pi(o) (lambda = 0.55) = 0.85) to the case where the local urban aerosol had the dominant influence on the region, as expected. The dynamic methodology was applied using cloud-free data from 2002 to 2005 in order to retrieve Ta with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ( MODIS). These results were compared with collocated data measured by AERONET in Sao Paulo. The comparison shows better results when the dynamic methodology using two aerosol optical models is applied (slope 1.06 +/- 0.08 offset 0.01 +/- 0.02 r(2) 0.6) than when a single and fixed aerosol model is used (slope 1.48 +/- 0.11 and offset - 0.03 +/- 0.03 r(2) 0.6). In conclusion the dynamical methodology is shown to work well with two aerosol models. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the methodology in other regions and under different conditions.

Monodic temporal resolution

Until recently, First-Order Temporal Logic (FOTL) has been only partially understood. While it is well known that the full logic has no finite axiomatisation, a more detailed analysis of fragments of the logic was not previously available. However, a breakthrough by Hodkinson et al., identifying a finitely axiomatisable fragment, termed the monodic fragment, has led to improved understanding of FOTL. Yet, in order to utilise these theoretical advances, it is important to have appropriate proof techniques for this monodic fragment.In this paper, we modify and extend the clausal temporal resolution technique, originally developed for propositional temporal logics, to enable its use in such monodic fragments. We develop a specific normal form for monodic formulae in FOTL, and provide a complete resolution calculus for formulae in this form. Not only is this clausal resolution technique useful as a practical proof technique for certain monodic classes, but the use of this approach provides us with increased understanding of the monodic fragment. In particular, we here show how several features of monodic FOTL can be established as corollaries of the completeness result for the clausal temporal resolution method. These include definitions of new decidable monodic classes, simplification of existing monodic classes by reductions, and completeness of clausal temporal resolution in the case of monodic logics with expanding domains, a case with much significance in both theory and practice.

Mechanising first-order temporal resolution

First-order temporal logic is a concise and powerful notation, with many potential applications in both Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence. While the full logic is highly complex, recent work on monodic first-order temporal logics has identified important enumerable and even decidable fragments. Although a complete and correct resolution-style calculus has already been suggested for this specific fragment, this calculus involves constructions too complex to be of practical value. In this paper, we develop a machine-oriented clausal resolution method which features radically simplified proof search. We first define a normal form for monodic formulae and then introduce a novel resolution calculus that can be applied to formulae in this normal form. By careful encoding, parts of the calculus can be implemented using classical first-order resolution and can, thus, be efficiently implemented. We prove correctness and completeness results for the calculus and illustrate it on a comprehensive example. An implementation of the method is briefly discussed.

Monodic Temporal Resolution

First-order temporal logic is a coincise and powerful notation, with many potential applications in both Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence. While the full logic is highly complex, recent work on monodic first-order temporal logics have identified important enumerable and even decidable fragments. In this paper we present the first resolution-based calculus for monodic first-order temporal logic. Although the main focus of the paper is on establishing completeness result, we also consider implementation issues and define a basic loop-search algorithm that may be used to guide the temporal resolution system.

Handling Equality in Monodic Temporal Resolution

First-order temporal logic is a concise and powerful notation, with many potential applications in both Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence. While the full logic is highly complex, recent work on monodic first-order temporal logics has identified important enumerable and even decidable fragments including the guarded fragment with equality. In this paper, we specialise the monodic resolution method to the guarded monodic fragment with equality and first-order temporal logic over expanding domains. We introduce novel resolution calculi that can be applied to formulae in the normal form associated with the clausal resolution method, and state correctness and completeness results.

Towards the Implementation of First-Order Temporal Resolution: the Expanding Domain Case

First-order temporal logic is a concise and powerful notation, with many potential applications in both Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence. While the full logic is highly complex, recent work on monodic first-order temporal logics has identified important enumerable and even decidable fragments. In this paper, we develop a clausal resolution method for the monodic fragment of first-order temporal logic over expanding domains. We first define a normal form for monodic formulae and then introduce novel resolution calculi that can be applied to formulae in this normal form. We state correctness and completeness results for the method. We illustrate the method on a comprehensive example. The method is based on classical first-order resolution and can, thus, be efficiently implemented.

Searching for Invariants Using Temporal Resolution

In this paper, we show how the clausal temporal resolution technique developed for temporal logic provides an effective method for searching for invariants, and so is suitable for mechanising a wide class of temporal problems. We demonstrate that this scheme of searching for invariants can be also applied to a class of multi-predicate induction problems represented by mutually recursive definitions. Completeness of the approach, examples of the application of the scheme, and overview of the implementation are described.

Towards First-Order Temporal Resolution

In this paper we show how to extend clausal temporal resolution to the ground eventuality fragment of monodic first-order temporal logic, which has recently been introduced by Hodkinson, Wolter and Zakharyaschev. While a finite Hilbert-like axiomatization of complete monodic first order temporal logic was developed by Wolter and Zakharyaschev, we propose a temporal resolution-based proof system which reduces the satisfiability problem for ground eventuality monodic first-order temporal formulae to the satisfiability problem for formulae of classical first-order logic.

The temporal resolution of epibiont assemblages: Are they ecological snapshots or overexposures?

The effects of time averaging on the fossil record of soft-substrate marine faunas have been investigated in great detail, but the temporal resolution of epibiont assemblages has been inferred only from limited-duration deployment experiments. Individually dated shells provide insight into the temporal resolution of epibiont assemblages and the taphonomic history of their hosts over decades to centuries. Epibiont abundance and richness were evaluated for 86 dated valves of the rhynchonelliform brachiopod Bouchardia rosea collected from the inner shelf. Maximum abundance occurred on shells less than 400 yr old, and maximum diversity was attained within a century. Taphonomic evidence does not support models of live-host colonization, net accumulation, or erasure of epibionts over time. Encrustation appears to have occurred during a brief interval between host death and burial, with no evidence of significant recolonization of exhumed shells. Epibiont assemblages of individually dated shells preserve ecological snapshots, despite host-shell time averaging, and may record long-term ecological changes or anthropogenic environmental changes. Unless the ages of individual shells are directly estimated, however, pooling shells of different ages artificially reduces the temporal resolution of their encrusting assemblages to that of their hosts, an artifact of analytical time averaging. © 2006 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Performance Analysis of MODIS 500-m Spatial Resolution Products for Estimating Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Oligo-to Meso-Trophic Waters Case Study: Itumbiara Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)