Effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early stages of marine fishes

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Effects of ocean acidification on growth and physiology of Ulva lactuca (Chlorophyta) in a rockpool-scenario, link to supplementary data

Rising atmospheric CO2-concentrations will have severe consequences for a variety of biological processes. We investigated the responses of the green alga Ulva lactuca (Linnaeus) to rising CO2-concentrations in a rockpool scenario. U. lactuca was cultured under aeraton with air containing either preindustrial pCO2 (280µatm) or for the end of the 21st century predicted (700µatm) pCO2 for 31 days. We addressed the following question: Will elevated CO2-concentrations affect photosynthesis (net photosynthesis, rETR(max), Fv/Fm, pigment composition) and growth of U. lactuca in rockpools with limited water exchange? Two phases of the experiment were distinguished: In the initial phase (day 1-4) the Seawater Carbonate System (SWCS) of the culture medium could be adjusted to the selected atmospheric pCO2 condition by continuous aeration with target pCO2 values. In the second phase (day 4-31) the SWCS was largely determined by the metabolism of the growing U. lactuca biomass. In the initial phase, Fv/Fm and rETR(max) were only slightly elevated at high CO2-concentrations whereas growth was significantly enhanced. After 31 days the Chl a content of the thalli was significantly lower under future conditions and the photosynthesis of thalli grown under preindustrial conditions was not dependent on external carbonic anhydrase. Biomass increased significantly at high CO2-concentrations. At low CO2-concentrations most adult thalli disintegrated between day 14 and 21, whereas at high CO2-concentrations most thalli remained integer until day 31. Thallus disintegration at low CO2-concentrations was mirrored in a drastic decline in seawater DIC and HCO3-. Accordingly, the SWCS differed significantly between the treatments. Our results indicated a slight enhancement of photosynthetic performance and significantly elevated growth of U. lactuca at future CO2-concentrations. The accelerated thallus disintegration at high CO2-concentrations under conditions of limited water exchange indicates additional CO2 effects on the life cycle of U. lactuca when living in rockpools.

Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

Evaluating Effects of Everglades Restoration on American Crocodile Populations in South Florida Using a Spatially-Explicit, Stage-Based Population Model

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Freeway Travel Time Estimation and Prediction Using Dynamic Neural Networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.

Antarctic crustacean grazer assemblages exhibit resistance following exposure to decreased pH

Anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing rapidly, resulting in declining seawater pH (ocean acidification). The majority of ocean acidification research to date has focused on the effects of decreased pH in single-species experiments. To assess how decreased pH may influence natural macroalgal-grazer assemblages, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with the common, chemically defended Antarctic brown macroalga Desmarestia menziesii and natural densities of its associated grazer assemblage, predominantly amphipods. Grazer assemblages were collected from the immediate vicinity of Palmer Station (64°46'S, 64°03'W) in March 2013. Assemblages were exposed for 30 days to three levels of pH representing present-day mean summer ambient conditions (pH 8.0), predicted near-future conditions (2100, pH 7.7), and distant-future conditions (pH 7.3). A significant difference was observed in the composition of mesograzer assemblages in the lowest pH treatment (pH 7.3). The differences between assemblages exposed to pH 7.3 and those maintained in the other two treatments were driven primarily by decreases in the abundance of the amphipod Metaleptamphopus pectinatus with decreasing pH, reduced copepod abundance at pH 7.7, and elevated ostracod abundance at pH 7.7. Generally, the assemblages maintained at pH 7.7 were not significantly different from those at ambient pH, demonstrating resistance to short-term decreased pH. The relatively high prevalence of generalist amphipods may have contributed to a net stabilizing effect on the assemblages exposed to decreased pH. Overall, our results suggest that crustacean grazer assemblages associated with D. menziesii, the dominant brown macroalgal species of the western Antarctic Peninsula, may be resistant to short-term near-future decreases in seawater pH.

A Predictive Thermal Habitat Model for Harbor Seals in the Northwest Atlantic

We analyzed projections of current and future ambient temperatures along the eastern United States in relationship to the thermal tolerance of harbor seals in air. Using the earth systems model (HadGEM2-ES) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, which are indicative of two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we were able to examine possible shifts in distribution based on three metrics: current preferences, the thermal limit of juveniles, and the thermal limits of adults. Our analysis focused on average ambient temperatures because harbor seals are least effective at regulating their body temperature in air, making them most susceptible to rising air temperatures in the coming years. Our study focused on the months of May, June, and August from 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) as these are the historic months in which harbor seals are known to annually come ashore to pup, breed, and molt. May, June, and August are also some of the warmest months of the year. We found that breeding colonies along the eastern United States will be limited by the thermal tolerance of juvenile harbor seals in air, while their foraging range will extend as far south as the thermal tolerance of adult harbor seals in air. Our analysis revealed that in 2070, harbor seal pups should be absent from the United States coastline nearing the end of the summer due to exceptionally high air temperatures.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and sperm swimming speed of the polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa in lab experiment

The rapidity of ocean acidification intensifies selection pressure for resilient phenotypes, particularly during sensitive early life stages. The scope for selection is greater in species with greater within-species variation in responses to changing environments, thus enhancing the potential for adaptation. We investigated among-male variation in sperm swimming responses (percent motility and swimming speeds) of the serpulid polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to near- (delta pH 0.3) and far-future ocean acidification (delta pH 0.5). Responses of sperm swimming to acidification varied significantly among males and were overall negative. Robust sperm swimming behavior under near-future ocean acidification in some males may ameliorate climate change impacts, if traits associated with robustness are heritable, and thereby enhance the potential for adaptation to far-future conditions. Reduced sperm swimming in the majority of male G. caespitosa may decrease their fertilization success in a high CO2 future ocean. Resultant changes in offspring production could affect recruitment success and population fitness downstream.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus) movement and feeding behaviour during experiments, 2011

Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.

Stakeholder perceptions of ecosystem services of the Wami River and Estuary

Management of riverine and coastal ecosystems warrants enhanced understanding of how different stakeholders perceive and depend upon different kinds of ecosystem services. Employing a mixed methods approach, this study compares and contrasts the use and perceptions of upstream residents, downstream residents, tourism officials, and conservation organizations regarding the value of 30 ecosystem services provided by the Wami River and its estuary in Tanzania, and investigates their perceptions of the main threats to this system. Our findings reveal that all of the stakeholder groups place a high value on the provision of domestic water, habitat for wild plants and animals, tourism, and erosion control, and a relatively low value on the prevention of saltwater intrusion, refuge from predators, spiritual fulfillment, nonrecreational hunting, and the provision of traditional medications and inorganic materials for construction. Differences emerge, however, between the groups in the value assigned to the conservation of riverine and estuarine fauna and the provision of raw materials for building and handicrafts. Declining fish populations and an increasing human population are identified by the residents and conservation employees, respectively, as their prime concerns regarding the future conditions of the Wami River and its estuary. These groups also acknowledge increasing salinity levels and the loss of mangroves as other key concerns. The identification of these mutual interests and shared concerns can help build common ground among stakeholders while the recognition of potential tensions can assist managers in balancing and reconciling the multiple needs and values of these different groups.

In Vitro Conditions for a Successful Biolistics transformation System of Pineapples (ananas comosus merr.), in 'Contributing to a Sustainable Future'

In order to develop an efficient and reliable biolistics transformation system for pineapples parameters need to be optimised for growth, survival and development of explants pre- and post transformation. We have optimised in vitro conditions for culture media for the various stages of plant and callus initiation and development, and for effective selection of putative transgenic material. Shoot multiplication and proliferation is best on medium containing MS basic nutrients and vitamins with the addition of 0.1 mg/L myo-inositol, 20 g/L sucrose, 2.5 mg/L BAP and 3 g/L Phytagel, followed by transfer to basic MS medium for further development. Callus production on leaf base explants is best on MS nutrients and vitamins, to which 10 mg/L of BAP and NAA each was added. Optimum explant age for bombardment is 17-35 week old callus, while a pre-bombardment osmoticum treatment in the medium is not required. By comparing several antibiotics as selective agent, it has been established that a two-step selection of 2 fortnightly sub-cultures on 50 μg/mL of geneticin in the culture medium, followed by monthly sub-cultures on 100 μg/mL geneticin is optimal for survival of transgenic callus. Shoot regeneration from callus cultures is optimal on medium containing MS nutrients and vitamins, 5% coconut water and 400 mg/L casein hydrolysate. Plants can be readily regenerated and multiplied from transgenic callus through organogenesis. Rooting of shoots does not require any additional plant hormones to the medium. A transformation efficiency of 1 – 3.5% can be achieved, depending on the gene construct applied.

Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Global atmospheric energetics under present and future climate conditions

An evaluation of the global atmospheric energetics is presented in the framework of the basic decomposition into the zonal mean and eddy components, the zonal wavenumber decomposition, and the three-dimensional normal mode decomposition. An extension to the normal mode energetics formulation is also presented in the study, which enables the explicit evaluation of the conversion rate between available potential energy and kinetic energy along with their generation and dissipation rates, in both the zonal wavenumber and vertical mode domains. In addition, it has been proposed an extended energy cycle diagram describing the flow of energy among the zonal mean and eddy components, and also among the barotropic and baroclinic components. The energetics is first assessed for three reanalysis datasets and five state-ofthe- art climate models simulations representing the present climate conditions. It is performed a comparative analysis between the observationally based energetics and that based on the climate models' simulations. In order to appraise possible changes in the atmospheric energetics of a future climate scenario relative to that of the present climate conditions, the analysis is extended using the datasets simulated by the same five climate models for a future climate scenario experiment, as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Structural and chemical characterization of corals grown under present day and naturally elevated pCO2 conditions in Papua New Guinea - a window into the future

Dissertação de mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015