985 resultados para forecast combination


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This work aims to take advantage of recent developments in joint factor analysis (JFA) in the context of a phonetically conditioned GMM speaker verification system. Previous work has shown performance advantages through phonetic conditioning, but this has not been shown to date with the JFA framework. Our focus is particularly on strategies for combining the phone-conditioned systems. We show that the classic fusion of the scores is suboptimal when using multiple GMM systems. We investigate several combination strategies in the model space, and demonstrate improvement over score-level combination as well as over a non-phonetic baseline system. This work was conducted during the 2008 CLSP Workshop at Johns Hopkins University.

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This paper suggests an approach for finding an appropriate combination of various parameters for extracting texture features (e.g. choice of spectral band for extracting texture feature, size of the moving window, quantization level of the image, and choice of texture feature etc.) to be used in the classification process. Gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) method has been used for extracting texture from remotely sensed satellite image. Results of the classification of an Indian urban environment using spatial property (texture), derived from spectral and multi-resolution wavelet decomposed images have also been reported. A multivariate data analysis technique called ‘conjoint analysis’ has been used in the study to analyze the relative importance of these parameters. Results indicate that the choice of texture feature and window size have higher relative importance in the classification process than quantization level or the choice of image band for extracting texture feature. In case of texture features derived using wavelet decomposed image, the parameter ‘decomposition level’ has almost equal relative importance as the size of moving window and the decomposition of images up to level one is sufficient and there is no need to go for further decomposition. It was also observed that the classification incorporating texture features improves the overall classification accuracy in a statistically significant manner in comparison to pure spectral classification.

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An algorithm based on the concept of combining Kalman filter and Least Error Square (LES) techniques is proposed in this paper. The algorithm is intended to estimate signal attributes like amplitude, frequency and phase angle in the online mode. This technique can be used in protection relays, digital AVRs, DGs, DSTATCOMs, FACTS and other power electronics applications. The Kalman filter is modified to operate on a fictitious input signal and provides precise estimation results insensitive to noise and other disturbances. At the same time, the LES system has been arranged to operate in critical transient cases to compensate the delay and inaccuracy identified because of the response of the standard Kalman filter. Practical considerations such as the effect of noise, higher order harmonics, and computational issues of the algorithm are considered and tested in the paper. Several computer simulations and a laboratory test are presented to highlight the usefulness of the proposed method. Simulation results show that the proposed technique can simultaneously estimate the signal attributes, even if it is highly distorted due to the presence of non-linear loads and noise.

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Problem: Innate immune activation of human cells, for some intracellular pathogens, is advantageous for vacuole morphology and pathogenic viability. It is unknown whether innate immune activation is advantageous to Chlamydia trachomatis viability. ----- ----- Method of study: Innate immune activation of HEp-2 cells during Chlamydia infection was conducted using lipopolysaccharide (LPS), polyI:C, and wedelolactone (innate immune inhibitor) to investigate the impact of these conditions on viability of Chlamydia. ----- ----- Results: The addition of LPS and polyI:C to stimulate activation of the two distinct innate immune pathways (nuclear factor kappa beta and interferon regulatory factor) had no impact on the viability of Chlamydia. However, when compounds targeting either pathway were added in combination with the specific innate immune inhibitor (wedelolactone) a major impact on Chlamydia viability was observed. This impact was found to be due to the induction of apoptosis of the HEp-2 cells under these conditions. ----- ----- Conclusion: This is the first time that induction of apoptosis has been reported in C. trachomatis-infected cells when treated with a combination of innate immune activators and wedelolactone.

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Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

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At the core of our uniquely human cognitive abilities is the capacity to see things from different perspectives, or to place them in a new context. We propose that this was made possible by two cognitive transitions. First, the large brain of Homo erectus facilitated the onset of recursive recall: the ability to string thoughts together into a stream of potentially abstract or imaginative thought. This hypothesis is sup-ported by a set of computational models where an artificial society of agents evolved to generate more diverse and valuable cultural outputs under conditions of recursive recall. We propose that the capacity to see things in context arose much later, following the appearance of anatomically modern humans. This second transition was brought on by the onset of contextual focus: the capacity to shift between a minimally contextual analytic mode of thought, and a highly contextual associative mode of thought, conducive to combining concepts in new ways and ‘breaking out of a rut’. When contextual focus is implemented in an art-generating computer program, the resulting artworks are seen as more creative and appealing. We summarize how both transitions can be modeled using a theory of concepts which high-lights the manner in which different contexts can lead to modern humans attributing very different meanings to the interpretation of one concept.

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We hypothesised that a potentially disease-modifying osteoarthritis (OA) drug such as hyaluronic acid (HA) given in combination with anti-inflammatory signalling agents such as mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase–extracellular signal-regulated kinase (MEK-ERK) signalling inhibitor (U0126) could result in additive or synergistic effects on preventing the degeneration of articular cartilage. Chondrocyte differentiation and hypertrophy were evaluated using human OA primary cells treated with either HA or U0126, or the combination of HA + U0126. Cartilage degeneration in menisectomy (MSX) induced rat OA model was investigated by intra-articular delivery of either HA or U0126, or the combination of HA + U0126. Histology, immunostaining, RT-qPCR, Western blotting and zymography were performed to assess the expression of cartilage matrix proteins and hypertrophic markers. Phosphorylated ERK (pERK)1/2-positive chondrocytes were significantly higher in OA samples compared with those in healthy control suggesting the pathological role of that pathway in OA. It was noted that HA + U0126 significantly reduced the levels of pERK, chondrocyte hypertrophic markers (COL10 and RUNX2) and degenerative markers (ADAMTs5 and MMP-13), however, increased the levels of chondrogenic markers (COL2) compared to untreated or the application of HA or U0126 alone. In agreement with the results in vitro, intra-articular delivery of HA + U0126 showed significant therapeutic improvement of cartilage in rat MSX OA model compared with untreated or the application of HA or U0126 alone. Our study suggests that the combination of HA and MEK-ERK inhibition has a synergistic effect on preventing cartilage degeneration.

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Nitrogen balance is increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in national, international, and global contexts. There are three main methods of accounting the national nitrogen balance: farm gate, soil surface, and soil system. OECD (2008) recently reported the nitrogen and phosphorus balances for member countries for the 1985 - 2004 period using the soil surface method. The farm gate and soil system methods were also used in some international projects. Some studies have provided the comparison among these methods and the conclusion is mixed. The motivation of this present paper was to combine these three methods to provide a more detailed auditing of the nitrogen balance and flows for national agricultural production. In addition, the present paper also provided a new strategy of using reliable international and national data sources to calculate nitrogen balance using the farm gate method. The empirical study focused on the nitrogen balance of OECD countries for the period from 1985 to 2003. The N surplus sent to the total environment of OECD surged dramatically in early 1980s, gradually decreased during 1990s but exhibited an increasing trends in early 2000s. The overall N efficiency however fluctuated without a clear increasing trend. The eco-environmental ranking shows that Australia and Ireland were the worst while Korea and Greece were the best.

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To enhance the therapeutic efficacy and reduce the adverse effects of traditional Chinese medicine, practitioners often prescribe combinations of plant species and/or minerals, called formulae. Unfortunately, the working mechanisms of most of these compounds are difficult to determine and thus remain unknown. In an attempt to address the benefits of formulae based on current biomedical approaches, we analyzed the components of Yinchenhao Tang, a classical formula that has been shown to be clinically effective for treating hepatic injury syndrome. The three principal components of Yinchenhao Tang are Artemisia annua L., Gardenia jasminoids Ellis, and Rheum Palmatum L., whose major active ingredients are 6,7-dimethylesculetin (D), geniposide (G), and rhein (R), respectively. To determine the mechanisms underlying the efficacy of this formula, we conducted a systematic analysis of the therapeutic effects of the DGR compound using immunohistochemistry, biochemistry, metabolomics, and proteomics. Here, we report that the DGR combination exerts a more robust therapeutic effect than any one or two of the three individual compounds by hitting multiple targets in a rat model of hepatic injury. Thus, DGR synergistically causes intensified dynamic changes in metabolic biomarkers, regulates molecular networks through target proteins, has a synergistic/additive effect, and activates both intrinsic and extrinsic pathways.