Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

Response Dynamics of Recirculation Structures in Coaxial Nonpremixed Swirl-Stabilized Flames Subjected to Acoustic Forcing

This paper reports the time-mean and phase-locked response of nonreacting as well as reacting flow field in a coaxial swirling jet/flame (nonpremixed). Two distinct swirl intensities plus two different central pipe flow rates at each swirl setting are investigated. The maximum response is observed at the 105 Hz mode in the range of excitation frequencies (0-315 Hz). The flow/flame exhibited minimal response beyond 300 Hz. It is seen that the aspect ratio change of inner recirculation zone (IRZ) under nonreacting conditions (at responsive modes) manifests as a corresponding increase in the time-mean flame aspect ratio. This is corroborated by similar to 25% decrease in the IRZ transverse width in both flame and cold flow states. In addition, 105 Hz excited states are found to shed high energy regions (eddies) asymmetrically when compared to dormant 315 Hz pulsing frequency. The kinetic energy (KE) of the flow field is subsequently reduced due to acoustic excitation and a corresponding increase (similar to O (1)) in fluctuation intensity is witnessed. The lower swirl intensity case is found to be more responsive than the high swirl case as in the former flow state the resistance offered by IRZ to incoming acoustic perturbations is lower due to inherently low inertia. Next, the phase-locked analysis of flow and flame structure is employed to further investigate the phase dependence of flow/flame response. It is found that the asymmetric shifting of IRZ mainly results at 270 deg acoustic forcing. The 90 deg phase angle forcing is observed to convect the IRZ farther downstream in both swirl cases as compared to other phase angles. The present work aims primarily at providing a fluid dynamic view point to the observed nonpremixed flame response without considering the confinement effects.

Forcing of self-excited round jet diffusion flames

In this experimental and numerical study, two types of round jet are examined under acoustic forcing. The first is a non-reacting low density jet (density ratio 0.14). The second is a buoyant jet diffusion flame at a Reynolds number of 1100 (density ratio of unburnt fluids 0.5). Both jets have regions of strong absolute instability at their base and this causes them to exhibit strong self-excited bulging oscillations at welldefined natural frequencies. This study particularly focuses on the heat release of the jet diffusion flame, which oscillates at the same natural frequency as the bulging mode, due to the absolutely unstable shear layer just outside the flame. The jets are forced at several amplitudes around their natural frequencies. In the non-reacting jet, the frequency of the bulging oscillation locks into the forcing frequency relatively easily. In the jet diffusion flame, however, very large forcing amplitudes are required to make the heat release lock into the forcing frequency. Even at these high forcing amplitudes, the natural mode takes over again from the forced mode in the downstream region of the flow, where the perturbation is beginning to saturate non-linearly and where the heat release is high. This raises the possibility that, in a flame with large regions of absolute instability, the strong natural mode could saturate before the forced mode, weakening the coupling between heat release and incident pressure perturbations, hence weakening the feedback loop that causes combustion instability. © 2009 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advancements in jet turbulence and noise modeling: accurate one-way solutions and empirical evaluation of the nonlinear forcing of wavepackets

Jet noise reduction is an important goal within both commercial and military aviation. Although large-scale numerical simulations are now able to simultaneously compute turbulent jets and their radiated sound, lost-cost, physically-motivated models are needed to guide noise-reduction efforts. A particularly promising modeling approach centers around certain large-scale coherent structures, called wavepackets, that are observed in jets and their radiated sound. The typical approach to modeling wavepackets is to approximate them as linear modal solutions of the Euler or Navier-Stokes equations linearized about the long-time mean of the turbulent flow field. The near-field wavepackets obtained from these models show compelling agreement with those educed from experimental and simulation data for both subsonic and supersonic jets, but the acoustic radiation is severely under-predicted in the subsonic case. This thesis contributes to two aspects of these models. First, two new solution methods are developed that can be used to efficiently compute wavepackets and their acoustic radiation, reducing the computational cost of the model by more than an order of magnitude. The new techniques are spatial integration methods and constitute a well-posed, convergent alternative to the frequently used parabolized stability equations. Using concepts related to well-posed boundary conditions, the methods are formulated for general hyperbolic equations and thus have potential applications in many fields of physics and engineering. Second, the nonlinear and stochastic forcing of wavepackets is investigated with the goal of identifying and characterizing the missing dynamics responsible for the under-prediction of acoustic radiation by linear wavepacket models for subsonic jets. Specifically, we use ensembles of large-eddy-simulation flow and force data along with two data decomposition techniques to educe the actual nonlinear forcing experienced by wavepackets in a Mach 0.9 turbulent jet. Modes with high energy are extracted using proper orthogonal decomposition, while high gain modes are identified using a novel technique called empirical resolvent-mode decomposition. In contrast to the flow and acoustic fields, the forcing field is characterized by a lack of energetic coherent structures. Furthermore, the structures that do exist are largely uncorrelated with the acoustic field. Instead, the forces that most efficiently excite an acoustic response appear to take the form of random turbulent fluctuations, implying that direct feedback from nonlinear interactions amongst wavepackets is not an essential noise source mechanism. This suggests that the essential ingredients of sound generation in high Reynolds number jets are contained within the linearized Navier-Stokes operator rather than in the nonlinear forcing terms, a conclusion that has important implications for jet noise modeling.

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

Climate forcing of Pacific herring recruitment and growth in southern British Columbia

Over the last 50 years, much of the variability in ocean climate and herring recruitment has occurred at two dominant periods centered around 5 and 16 years. Herring growth has also exhibited a dominant 5- and 18-year periodicity. A recent analysis of a number of relevant time series suggests that interannual variations in oceanic conditions off the west coast of Vancouver Island affect survival of herring and their principal predator, Pacific hake, which also exhibits a marked 16-year oscillation in abundance. Thus the dynamics of the herring stock are modulated by a combination of climate and predator forcing. Much of the interannual variation in herring growth is centered around the 5-year (moderate ENSO period) and 16-year (strong ENSO period) ocean climate oscillations and the 16-year recruitment oscillation.

Climate forcing by changing solar radiation

By how much does changing radiation from the Sun influence Earth's climate compared with other natural and anthropogenic processes? Answering this question is necessary for making policy regarding anthropogenic global change, which must be detected against natural climate variability. Current knowledge of the amplitudes and time scales of solar radiative output variability available from contemporary solar monitoring and historical reconstructions can help specify climate forcing by changing radiation over multiple time scales.

Reynolds number influence on turbulent blocking effects of a rigid plane boundary (2nd report, direct numerical simulation using townsend's eddy forcing)

The Reynolds number influence on turbulent blocking effects by a rigid plane boundary is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). A new forcing method using 'simple model eddies' (Townsend 1976) for DNS of stationary homogeneous isotropic turbulence is proposed. A force field is obtained in real space by sprinkling many space-filling 'simple model eddies' whose centers are randomly but uniformly distributed in space and whose axes of rotation are random. The method is applied to a shear-free turbulent boundary layer over a rigid plane boundary and the blocking effects are investigated. The results show that stationary homogeneous isotropic turbulence is generated in real space using the present method. By using different model eddies with different sizes and rotation speeds, we could change the turbulence properties such as the integral and micro scales, the turbulent Reynolds number and the isotropy of turbulence. Turbulence intensities near the wall showed good agreements with the previous measurement and the linear analysis based on a rapid distortion theory (RDT). The splat effect (i.e., turbulence intensities of the components parallel to the boundary are amplified) occurs near the boundary and the viscous effect prohibits the splat effect at the quasi steady state at low Reynolds number.