967 resultados para food market


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The increasing consumption of sucrose has resulted in several nutritional and medicinal problems, including obesity. There is an alarming rise in the prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and metabolic syndrome in children and adults around the world, partly related to increasing availability of energy-dense, high-calorie foods, and perhaps to increased consumption of sugar and particularly fructose sweetened beverages. Therefore, low calorie sweeteners are urgently required to substitute table sugar.

Stevioside, a diterpene glycoside, is well known for its intense sweetness and is used as a non-caloric sweetener. Its potential widespread use requires an easy and effective extraction method. Enzymatic extraction of stevioside from Stevia rebaudiana leaves with cellulase, pectinase and hemicellulase using various parameters such as concentration of enzyme, incubation time and temperature was optimized. The extraction conditions were further optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). Under the optimized conditions, the experimental values were in close agreement with predicted model and resulted in a three times yield enhancement of stevioside.

Various studies have revealed that in addition to sweetening nature of stevisoide, it exerts beneficial effects including antihypertensive, anti-hyperglycemic, anti-human rotavirus, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and antitumor actions. Its anti-amnesic potential remains to be explored, therefore the present study has been undertaken to investigate the beneficial effect of stevioside in memory deficit of rats employing scopolamine induced amnesia as an animal model.

Significance: Stevia is gaining significance in different parts of the world and is expected to develop into a major source of high potency sweetener for the growing natural food market. There is a strong possibility that Stevia sweeteners could replace aspartame in some diet variants. In addition, Stevia is expected to be used as a part substitute for sugar and also used in combination with other artificial sweeteners in the emerging phase of life cycle.

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As tendências do mercado mundial de alimentos apontam para alto crescimento no consumo de produtos naturais, como as frutas e verduras. O mercado mundial de frutas frescas registrou, em 2005, cifra superior a US$ 31,5 bilhões e cresce US$ 1 bilhão ao ano, em média. Tal fato se reproduz no Brasil, onde se observa elevação do consumo de frutas. em termos monetários, o valor bruto da produção de frutas no Brasil atingiu, em 2006, cerca de R$ 16,3 bilhões, 16,5% do valor da produção agrícola brasileira. O presente trabalho buscou analisar características econômicas da participação brasileira no comércio mundial de frutas, entre 1997 e 2008. Ademais, foi analisada a evolução da balança comercial das principais frutas brasileiras, discriminação das exportações em frescas ou processadas, representatividade do comércio externo no valor da produção nacional e participação da exportação de frutas selecionadas na exportação total do agronegócio. Foram utilizados dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística; o Sistema de Análise e Levantamento do Comércio Exterior - AliceWeb do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior e o banco de dados do Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Após levantamento das frutas que seriam estudadas, constatou-se que o crescimento das exportações foi maior que o crescimento das importações brasileiras de 1997 a 2008. Isso contribuiu para que o seu saldo comercial aumentasse em 112% no período. As exportações de frutas frescas cresceram relativamente mais que as exportações de frutas processadas. Porém houve queda da participação das exportações de frutas nas exportações do agronegócio brasileiro, de 5,8%, em 1997, para 3,9%, em 2008.

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The objective of this work was to establish physical and chemical characterizations of dovyalis hybrid fruits (Dovyalis abyssinica and D. hebecarpa). Samples of 25 fruits were characterized by evaluation of length and width, weight, percentage and number of seeds per fruit, peel percentage, pulp percentage, total soluble solids (TSS), titratable acidity (TA), vitamin C and TSS/TA ratio. Dovyalis fruit has good physical quality for market with an average of 75% pulp. Vitamin C content averaged 120.3 mg/100 g of fresh fruit, characterizing dovyalis as a good source of vitamin C. © 2005 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Pós-graduação em Alimentos e Nutrição - FCFAR

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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Currently, the food market is a great competition. It is no longer unanimously in the CMC powder drinks, as in the past, xanthan gum, always seeking to develop more economic alternatives, such as guar gum. It is clear, therefore, it is of vital importance to understand thoroughly the operation of a particular product in different process conditions and with different materials so that we can develop and adapt both new processes and products to new market reality

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This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The recent default of important Italian agri-business companies provides a challenging issue to be investigated through an appropriate scientific approach. The events involving CIRIO, FERRUZZI or PARMALAT rise an important research question: what are the determinants of performance for Italian companies in the Italian agri – food sector? My aim is not to investigate all the factors that are relevant in explaining performance. Performance depends on a wide set of political, social, economic variables that are strongly interconnected and that are often very difficult to express by formal or mathematical tools. Rather, in my thesis I mainly focus on those aspects that are strictly related to the governance and ownership structure of agri – food companies representing a strand of research that has been quite neglected by previous scholars. The conceptual framework from which I move to justify the existence of a relationship between the ownership structure of a company, governance and performance is the model set up by Airoldi and Zattoni (2005). In particular the authors investigate the existence of complex relationships arising within the company and between the company and the environment that can bring different strategies and performances. They do not try to find the “best” ownership structure, rather they outline what variables are connected and how they could vary endogenously within the whole economic system. In spite of the fact that the Airoldi and Zattoni’s model highlights the existence of a relationship between ownership and structure that is crucial for the set up of the thesis the authors fail to apply quantitative analyses in order to verify the magnitude, sign and the causal direction of the impact. In order to fill this gap we start from the literature trying to investigate the determinants of performance. Even in this strand of research studies analysing the relationship between different forms of ownership and performance are still lacking. In this thesis, after a brief description of the Italian agri – food sector and after an introduction including a short explanation of the definitions of performance and ownership structure, I implement a model in which the performance level (interpreted here as Return on Investments and Return on Sales) is related to variables that have been previously identified by the literature as important such as the financial variables (cash and leverage indices), the firm location (North Italy, Centre Italy, South Italy), the power concentration (lower than 25%, between 25% and 50% and between 50% and 100% of ownership control) and the specific agri – food sector (agriculture, food and beverage). Moreover we add a categorical variable representing different forms of ownership structure (public limited company, limited liability company, cooperative) that is the core of our study. All those variables are fully analysed by a preliminary descriptive analysis. As in many previous contributions we apply a panel least squares analysis for 199 Italian firms in the period 1998 – 2007 with data taken from the Bureau Van Dijck Dataset. We apply two different models in which the dependant variables are respectively the Return on Investments (ROI) and the Return on Sales (ROS) indicators. Not surprisingly we find that companies located in the North Italy representing the richest area in Italy perform better than the ones located in the Centre and South of Italy. In contrast with the Modigliani - Miller theorem financial variables could be significant and the specific sector within the agri – food market could play a relevant role. As the power concentration, we find that a strong property control (higher than 50%) or a fragmented concentration (lower than 25%) perform better. This result apparently could suggest that “hybrid” forms of concentrations could create bad functioning in the decision process. As our key variables representing the ownership structure we find that public limited companies and limited liability companies perform better than cooperatives. This is easily explainable by the fact that law establishes that cooperatives are less profit – oriented. Beyond cooperatives public limited companies perform better than limited liability companies and show a more stable path over time. Results are quite consistent when we consider both ROI and ROS as dependant variables. These results should not lead us to claim that public limited company is the “best” among all possible governance structures. First, every governance solution should be considered according to specific situations. Second more robustness analyses are needed to confirm our results. At this stage we deem these findings, the model set up and our approach represent original contributions that could stimulate fruitful future studies aimed at investigating the intriguing issue concerning the effect of ownership structure on the performance levels.

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Food technologies today mean reducing agricultural food waste, improvement of food security, enhancement of food sensory properties, enlargement of food market and food economies. Food technologists must be high-skilled technicians with good scientific knowledge of food hygiene, food chemistry, industrial technologies and food engineering, sensory evaluation experience and analytical chemistry. Their role is to apply the modern vision of science in the field of human nutrition, rising up knowledge in food science. The present PhD project starts with the aim of studying and improving frozen fruits quality. Freezing process in very powerful in preserve initial raw material characteristics, but pre-treatment before the freezing process are necessary to improve quality, in particular to improve texture and enzymatic activity of frozen foods. Osmotic Dehydration (OD) and Vacuum Impregnation (VI), are useful techniques to modify fruits and vegetables composition and prepare them to freezing process. These techniques permit to introduce cryo-protective agent into the food matrices, without significant changes of the original structure, but cause a slight leaching of important intrinsic compounds. Phenolic and polyphenolic compounds for example in apples and nectarines treated with hypertonic solutions are slightly decreased, but the effect of concentration due to water removal driven out from the osmotic gradient, cause a final content of phenolic compounds similar to that of the raw material. In many experiment, a very important change in fruit composition regard the aroma profile. This occur in strawberries osmo-dehydrated under vacuum condition or under atmospheric pressure condition. The increment of some volatiles, probably due to fermentative metabolism induced by the osmotic stress of hypertonic treatment, induce a sensory profile modification of frozen fruits, that in some way result in a better acceptability of consumer, that prefer treated frozen fruits to untreated frozen fruits. Among different processes used, a very interesting result was obtained with the application of a osmotic pre-treatment driven out at refrigerated temperature for long time. The final quality of frozen strawberries was very high and a peculiar increment of phenolic profile was detected. This interesting phenomenon was probably due to induction of phenolic biological synthesis (for example as reaction to osmotic stress), or to hydrolysis of polymeric phenolic compounds. Aside this investigation in the cryo-stabilization and dehydrofreezing of fruits, deeper investigation in VI techniques were carried out, as studies of changes in vacuum impregnated prickly pear texture, and in use of VI and ultrasound (US) in aroma enrichment of fruit pieces. Moreover, to develop sensory evaluation tools and analytical chemistry determination (of volatiles and phenolic compounds), some researches were bring off and published in these fields. Specifically dealing with off-flavour development during storage of boiled potato, and capillary zonal electrophoresis (CZE) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) determination of phenolic compounds.

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Scegliere di consumare in modo sostenibile significa passare ad un nuovo modello di consumo. Tale modello richiede una maggiore consapevolezza e responsabilità da parte dei consumatori, unite all'adozione di nuovi stili di vita e di scelte d’acquisto, che permettano il raggiungimento di elevati livelli di benessere nel rispetto dell'ambiente. Un notevole sforzo è stato compiuto recentemente dai policy maker per incoraggiare il consumo sostenibile quali implementazioni dello sviluppo sostenibile. Ancora lunga, tuttavia, è la strada da percorrere per raggiungere pienamente questo obiettivo. Tra i prodotti sostenibili, il biologico si è rivelato di gran lunga il più rappresentativo: le statistiche di questo mercato mostrano, infatti, tendenze positive, sebbene il consumo risulti ancora eterogeneo e contenuto rispetto al consumo di alimenti convenzionali. Ciò mostra che il comportamento dei consumatori non è ancora abbastanza reattivo alle suddette politiche. Il presente studio si propone di contribuire alla ricerca sul consumo sostenibile approfondendo i fattori che incoraggiano o impediscono il consumo di prodotti alimentari biologici in Italia. Adottando un nuovo approccio si cerca di capire come i diversi segmenti di diete alimentari affrontino gli alimenti biologici in termini di consumi e di atteggiamenti. Un'analisi multivariata a più fasi è stata condotta su un campione di 3.004 consumatori. Un’analisi delle componenti principali non lineare è stata applicata alle variabili ordinali che misurano il consumo di ventuno categorie di alimenti. Successivamente è stata applicata la cluster analysis che ha dato luogo a quattro segmenti di abitudini alimentari. I prodotti biologici sono diventati parte delle abitudini alimentari in Italia in quasi un terzo della popolazione. Il consumo sembra essersi affermato soprattutto nel segmento con abitudini alimentari sane. Una scarsa attenzione ad una dieta sana, gli stili di vita, il reddito, l'accessibilità, la mancanza di consapevolezza condizionano le abitudini alimentari a scapito di un consumo più sostenibile.

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La investigación de esta tesis se centra en el estudio de técnicas geoestadísticas y su contribución a una mayor caracterización del binomio factores climáticos-rendimiento de un cultivo agrícola. El inexorable vínculo entre la variabilidad climática y la producción agrícola cobra especial relevancia en estudios sobre el cambio climático o en la modelización de cultivos para dar respuesta a escenarios futuros de producción mundial. Es información especialmente valiosa en sistemas operacionales de monitoreo y predicción de rendimientos de cultivos Los cuales son actualmente uno de los pilares operacionales en los que se sustenta la agricultura y seguridad alimentaria mundial; ya que su objetivo final es el de proporcionar información imparcial y fiable para la regularización de mercados. Es en este contexto, donde se quiso dar un enfoque alternativo a estudios, que con distintos planteamientos, analizan la relación inter-anual clima vs producción. Así, se sustituyó la dimensión tiempo por la espacio, re-orientando el análisis estadístico de correlación interanual entre rendimiento y factores climáticos, por el estudio de la correlación inter-regional entre ambas variables. Se utilizó para ello una técnica estadística relativamente nueva y no muy aplicada en investigaciones similares, llamada regresión ponderada geográficamente (GWR, siglas en inglés de “Geographically weighted regression”). Se obtuvieron superficies continuas de las variables climáticas acumuladas en determinados periodos fenológicos, que fueron seleccionados por ser factores clave en el desarrollo vegetativo de un cultivo. Por ello, la primera parte de la tesis, consistió en un análisis exploratorio sobre comparación de Métodos de Interpolación Espacial (MIE). Partiendo de la hipótesis de que existe la variabilidad espacial de la relación entre factores climáticos y rendimiento, el objetivo principal de esta tesis, fue el de establecer en qué medida los MIE y otros métodos geoestadísticos de regresión local, pueden ayudar por un lado, a alcanzar un mayor entendimiento del binomio clima-rendimiento del trigo blando (Triticum aestivum L.) al incorporar en dicha relación el componente espacial; y por otro, a caracterizar la variación de los principales factores climáticos limitantes en el crecimiento del trigo blando, acumulados éstos en cuatro periodos fenológicos. Para lleva a cabo esto, una gran carga operacional en la investigación de la tesis consistió en homogeneizar y hacer los datos fenológicos, climáticos y estadísticas agrícolas comparables tanto a escala espacial como a escala temporal. Para España y los Bálticos se recolectaron y calcularon datos diarios de precipitación, temperatura máxima y mínima, evapotranspiración y radiación solar en las estaciones meteorológicas disponibles. Se dispuso de una serie temporal que coincidía con los mismos años recolectados en las estadísticas agrícolas, es decir, 14 años contados desde 2000 a 2013 (hasta 2011 en los Bálticos). Se superpuso la malla de información fenológica de cuadrícula 25 km con la ubicación de las estaciones meteorológicas con el fin de conocer los valores fenológicos en cada una de las estaciones disponibles. Hecho esto, para cada año de la serie temporal disponible se calcularon los valores climáticos diarios acumulados en cada uno de los cuatro periodos fenológicos seleccionados P1 (ciclo completo), P2 (emergencia-madurez), P3 (floración) y P4 (floraciónmadurez). Se calculó la superficie interpolada por el conjunto de métodos seleccionados en la comparación: técnicas deterministas convencionales, kriging ordinario y cokriging ordinario ponderado por la altitud. Seleccionados los métodos más eficaces, se calculó a nivel de provincias las variables climatológicas interpoladas. Y se realizaron las regresiones locales GWR para cuantificar, explorar y modelar las relaciones espaciales entre el rendimiento del trigo y las variables climáticas acumuladas en los cuatro periodos fenológicos. Al comparar la eficiencia de los MIE no destaca una técnica por encima del resto como la que proporcione el menor error en su predicción. Ahora bien, considerando los tres indicadores de calidad de los MIE estudiados se han identificado los métodos más efectivos. En el caso de la precipitación, es la técnica geoestadística cokriging la más idónea en la mayoría de los casos. De manera unánime, la interpolación determinista en función radial (spline regularizado) fue la técnica que mejor describía la superficie de precipitación acumulada en los cuatro periodos fenológicos. Los resultados son más heterogéneos para la evapotranspiración y radiación. Los métodos idóneos para estas se reparten entre el Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), IDW ponderado por la altitud y el Ordinary Kriging (OK). También, se identificó que para la mayoría de los casos en que el error del Ordinary CoKriging (COK) era mayor que el del OK su eficacia es comparable a la del OK en términos de error y el requerimiento computacional de este último es mucho menor. Se pudo confirmar que existe la variabilidad espacial inter-regional entre factores climáticos y el rendimiento del trigo blando tanto en España como en los Bálticos. La herramienta estadística GWR fue capaz de reproducir esta variabilidad con un rendimiento lo suficientemente significativo como para considerarla una herramienta válida en futuros estudios. No obstante, se identificaron ciertas limitaciones en la misma respecto a la información que devuelve el programa a nivel local y que no permite desgranar todo el detalle sobre la ejecución del mismo. Los indicadores y periodos fenológicos que mejor pudieron reproducir la variabilidad espacial del rendimiento en España y Bálticos, arrojaron aún, una mayor credibilidad a los resultados obtenidos y a la eficacia del GWR, ya que estaban en línea con el conocimiento agronómico sobre el cultivo del trigo blando en sistemas agrícolas mediterráneos y norteuropeos. Así, en España, el indicador más robusto fue el balance climático hídrico Climatic Water Balance) acumulado éste, durante el periodo de crecimiento (entre la emergencia y madurez). Aunque se identificó la etapa clave de la floración como el periodo en el que las variables climáticas acumuladas proporcionaban un mayor poder explicativo del modelo GWR. Sin embargo, en los Bálticos, países donde el principal factor limitante en su agricultura es el bajo número de días de crecimiento efectivo, el indicador más efectivo fue la radiación acumulada a lo largo de todo el ciclo de crecimiento (entre la emergencia y madurez). Para el trigo en regadío no existe ninguna combinación que pueda explicar más allá del 30% de la variación del rendimiento en España. Poder demostrar que existe un comportamiento heterogéneo en la relación inter-regional entre el rendimiento y principales variables climáticas, podría contribuir a uno de los mayores desafíos a los que se enfrentan, a día de hoy, los sistemas operacionales de monitoreo y predicción de rendimientos de cultivos, y éste es el de poder reducir la escala espacial de predicción, de un nivel nacional a otro regional. ABSTRACT This thesis explores geostatistical techniques and their contribution to a better characterization of the relationship between climate factors and agricultural crop yields. The crucial link between climate variability and crop production plays a key role in climate change research as well as in crops modelling towards the future global production scenarios. This information is particularly important for monitoring and forecasting operational crop systems. These geostatistical techniques are currently one of the most fundamental operational systems on which global agriculture and food security rely on; with the final aim of providing neutral and reliable information for food market controls, thus avoiding financial speculation of nourishments of primary necessity. Within this context the present thesis aims to provide an alternative approach to the existing body of research examining the relationship between inter-annual climate and production. Therefore, the temporal dimension was replaced for the spatial dimension, re-orienting the statistical analysis of the inter-annual relationship between crops yields and climate factors to an inter-regional correlation between these two variables. Geographically weighted regression, which is a relatively new statistical technique and which has rarely been used in previous research on this topic was used in the current study. Continuous surface values of the climate accumulated variables in specific phenological periods were obtained. These specific periods were selected because they are key factors in the development of vegetative crop. Therefore, the first part of this thesis presents an exploratory analysis regarding the comparability of spatial interpolation methods (SIM) among diverse SIMs and alternative geostatistical methodologies. Given the premise that spatial variability of the relationship between climate factors and crop production exists, the primary aim of this thesis was to examine the extent to which the SIM and other geostatistical methods of local regression (which are integrated tools of the GIS software) are useful in relating crop production and climate variables. The usefulness of these methods was examined in two ways; on one hand the way this information could help to achieve higher production of the white wheat binomial (Triticum aestivum L.) by incorporating the spatial component in the examination of the above-mentioned relationship. On the other hand, the way it helps with the characterization of the key limiting climate factors of soft wheat growth which were analysed in four phenological periods. To achieve this aim, an important operational workload of this thesis consisted in the homogenization and obtention of comparable phenological and climate data, as well as agricultural statistics, which made heavy operational demands. For Spain and the Baltic countries, data on precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, evapotranspiration and solar radiation from the available meteorological stations were gathered and calculated. A temporal serial approach was taken. These temporal series aligned with the years that agriculture statistics had previously gathered, these being 14 years from 2000 to 2013 (until 2011 for the Baltic countries). This temporal series was mapped with a phenological 25 km grid that had the location of the meteorological stations with the objective of obtaining the phenological values in each of the available stations. Following this procedure, the daily accumulated climate values for each of the four selected phenological periods were calculated; namely P1 (complete cycle), P2 (emergency-maturity), P3 (flowering) and P4 (flowering- maturity). The interpolated surface was then calculated using the set of selected methodologies for the comparison: deterministic conventional techniques, ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging weighted by height. Once the most effective methods had been selected, the level of the interpolated climate variables was calculated. Local GWR regressions were calculated to quantify, examine and model the spatial relationships between soft wheat production and the accumulated variables in each of the four selected phenological periods. Results from the comparison among the SIMs revealed that no particular technique seems more favourable in terms of accuracy of prediction. However, when the three quality indicators of the compared SIMs are considered, some methodologies appeared to be more efficient than others. Regarding precipitation results, cokriging was the most accurate geostatistical technique for the majority of the cases. Deterministic interpolation in its radial function (controlled spline) was the most accurate technique for describing the accumulated precipitation surface in all phenological periods. However, results are more heterogeneous for the evapotranspiration and radiation methodologies. The most appropriate technique for these forecasts are the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), weighted IDW by height and the Ordinary Kriging (OK). Furthermore, it was found that for the majority of the cases where the Ordinary CoKriging (COK) error was larger than that of the OK, its efficacy was comparable to that of the OK in terms of error while the computational demands of the latter was much lower. The existing spatial inter-regional variability between climate factors and soft wheat production was confirmed for both Spain and the Baltic countries. The GWR statistic tool reproduced this variability with an outcome significative enough as to be considered a valid tool for future studies. Nevertheless, this tool also had some limitations with regards to the information delivered by the programme because it did not allow for a detailed break-down of its procedure. The indicators and phenological periods that best reproduced the spatial variability of yields in Spain and the Baltic countries made the results and the efficiency of the GWR statistical tool even more reliable, despite the fact that these were already aligned with the agricultural knowledge about soft wheat crop under mediterranean and northeuropean agricultural systems. Thus, for Spain, the most robust indicator was the Climatic Water Balance outcome accumulated throughout the growing period (between emergency and maturity). Although the flowering period was the phase that best explained the accumulated climate variables in the GWR model. For the Baltic countries where the main limiting agricultural factor is the number of days of effective growth, the most effective indicator was the accumulated radiation throughout the entire growing cycle (between emergency and maturity). For the irrigated soft wheat there was no combination capable of explaining above the 30% of variation of the production in Spain. The fact that the pattern of the inter-regional relationship between the crop production and key climate variables is heterogeneous within a country could contribute to one is one of the greatest challenges that the monitoring and forecasting operational systems for crop production face nowadays. The present findings suggest that the solution may lay in downscaling the spatial target scale from a national to a regional level.