Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Economics and psychology in the twenty-first century

This paper begins by exploring four different possible forms of relationship between economics and psychology, which have different connotations in terms of the relative status of the two disciplines. It then focuses on the future for one of these, psychological economics. After setting out the hardcore axioms and positive and negative heuristics of a research programme in psychological economics, it explores institutional and psychological barriers to the success of such a research programme in the context of both research and teaching.

Myopia:precedents for research in the twenty-first century

The myopic eye is generally considered to be a vulnerable eye and, at levels greater than 6 D, one that is especially susceptible to a range of ocular pathologies. There is concern therefore that the prevalence of myopia in young adolescent eyes has increased substantially over recent decades and is now approaching 10-25% and 60-80%, respectively, in industrialized societies of the West and East. Whereas it is clear that the major structural correlate of myopia is longitudinal elongation of the posterior vitreous chamber, other potential correlates include profiles of lenticular and corneal power, the relationship between longitudinal and transverse vitreous chamber dimensions and ocular volume. The most potent predictors for juvenile-onset myopia continue to be a refractive error ≤+0.50 D at 5 years of age and family history. Significant and continuing progress is being made on the genetic characteristics of high myopia with at least four chromosomes currently identified. Twin studies and genetic modelling have computed a heritability index of at least 80% across the whole ametropic continuum. The high index does not, however, preclude an environmental precursor, sustained near work with high cognitive demand being the most likely. The significance of associations between accommodation, oculomotor dysfunction and human myopia is equivocal despite animal models that have demonstrated that sustained hyperopic defocus can induce vitreous chamber growth. Recent optical and pharmaceutical approaches to the reduction of myopia progression in children are likely precedents for future research, for example progressive addition spectacle lens trials and the use of the topical MI muscarinic antagonist pirenzepine.

Eastern Christianity and politics in the Twenty-First Century

This book provides an up-to-date, comprehensive overview of Eastern Christian churches in Europe, the Middle East, America, Africa, Asia and Australia. Written by leading international scholars in the field, it examines both Orthodox and Oriental churches from the end of the Cold War up to the present day. The book offers a unique insight into the myriad church-state relations in Eastern Christianity and tackles contemporary concerns, opportunities and challenges, such as religious revival after the fall of communism; churches and democracy; relations between Orthodox, Catholic and Greek Catholic churches; religious education and monastic life; the size and structure of congregations; and the impact of migration, secularisation and globalisation on Eastern Christianity in the twenty-first century.

Nagyobb kockázat, nagyobb növekedési ütem - kockázat nélkül nincs növekedés! Hozzászólás Thomas Piketty A tőke a 21. században című könyvéhez (Why are interest rates higher than growth rates? A comment on Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century)

E rövid írás aktualitását az adja, hogy nemrégen jelent meg magyarul Thomas Piketty híres könyve: A tőke a 21. században. A könyv központi gondolata, hogy az elmúlt kétszáz év átlagában a gazdaság átlagos növekedési üteme, a g jelentősen elmarad az r értékétől, vagyis a tőke átlagos hozamától. A nevezetes r>g összefüggés egyik lehetséges oka, hogy az r szórása nagyobb, mint a g-é. A nagyobb szórás mögött nagyobb kockázati motívumok állhatnak. Ebből következően a Piketty által javasolt adókat jelentős mértékben a pénzügyi tőkének kellene viselnie. ____ The immediacy of this note derives from the fact that Picatty's famous Capital in the Twenty-First Century has been recently published in Hungarian. The central issue in the book is that taking the average of 200 years, the mean growth rate g is lower than the average return on capital r. One possible explanation of this famous r > g inequality may be that the standard deviation of r is greater than that of g because of the greater appetite for risk. The implication to draw from this is that financial capital should bear the majority of the taxes being suggested by Piketty.

So what is Capital in the Twenty-First Century? Some notes on Piketty’s book Working paper, forthcoming in Capitalism & Society

This study was inspired by Piketty’s excellent and important book. Its title and numerous statements in it arouse in readers expectations of a comprehensive analysis of capitalism. By comparison the author of this paper felt important aspects were lacking. The capitalist system has numerous immanent traits and innate tendencies, of which the paper takes a closer look at three properties. 1. One basic feature is dynamism, innovation, and creative destruction. No picture of capitalism can be full if this basic aspect is ignored. 2. Capitalism inevitably brings about a high degree of inequality; this must be eased by reforms, but cannot be entirely overcome. 3. The basic characteristics of capitalism – private ownership and the dominance of market coordination – give rise to strong incentive mechanisms that encourage but owners and enterprise executives to innovate and to cooperate effectively. One of the main incentives is competition, especially oligopolistic competition. There are strong mutual effects among these three important tendencies. It is impossible to understand well Piketty’s main subject, the distribution of income and wealth, if it is divorced from the other two tendencies. The study ends with its author’s own value judgements on the favourable and harmful, unjust attributes of the capitalist system.

The Spanish Civil War in the twenty -first century peninsular narrative: Narrative endeavors towards a national reconciliation?

This dissertation analyzes six twenty-first century novels that reflect Spain's current intellectual trends on the Spanish Civil War, Francoism and the transition to a democratic system. These novels deal with the complex correlation between memory and amnesia caused by the traumatic events of the Civil War. Despite the abundance of literature on this topic, these writers insist on the need for the recovery of historical and collective memory in order to halt the negative historical revisionism of recent years. Beginning with the death of Francisco Franco, this work focuses on the historical-theoretical framework that leads to the development of this mnemonic narrative and outlines the politics of memory effectuated during the transitional period, a lieu de mémoire frequently revisited and examined by new generations of writers. The novels analyzed also call for the retelling of history from the perspective of everyday people and address the need to pay overdue homage to victims of the post-war era.^ This work concludes that, while the texts may be considered settings for posthumous tributes, they could likewise advocate for a national reconciliation. Thus, as this narrative reveals, by focusing more on the need for a work on memory than on political and ideological polarizations, the memory of restitution does not interfere with the memory of reconciliation. The writers in question are nonetheless aware that reconciliation cannot be based on a spurious amnesia. The first step, therefore, towards reconciliation is to achieve a legitimate dialogue with regard to the traumatic past, and literary works may offer a tenable path. ^