Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Prediction of highway truck conveyance configuration under over-limit prohibition and conveyance equilibrium

Aiming at the shortage of prevailing prediction methods about highway truck conveyance configuration in over-limit freight research that transferring the goods attributed to over-limit portion to another fully loaded truck of the same configuration and developing the truck traffic volume synchronously, a new way to get accumulated probability function of truck power tonnage in basal year by highway truck classified by wheel and axle type load mass spectrum investigation was presented. Logit models were used to forecast overall highway freight diversion and single cargo tonnage diversion when the weight rules and strict of enforcement intensity of overload were changed in scheme year. Assumption that the probability distribution of single truck loadage should be consistent with the probability distribution of single goods freighted, the model describes the truck conveyance configuration in the future under strict over-limit prohibition. The model was used and tested in Highway Over-limit Research Project in Anhui by World Bank.

Information–movement coupling in developing cricketers under changing ecological practice constraints

Changing informational constraints of practice, such as when using ball projection machines, has been shown to significantly affect movement coordination of skilled cricketers. To date, there has been no similar research on movement responses of developing batters, an important issue since ball projection machines are used heavily in cricket development programmes. Timing and coordination of young cricketers (n = 12, age = 15.6 ± 0.7 years) were analyzed during the forward defensive and forward drive strokes when facing a bowling machine and bowler (both with a delivery velocity of 28.14 ± 0.56 m s−1). Significant group performance differences were observed between the practice task constraints, with earlier initiation of the backswing, front foot movement, downswing, and front foot placement when facing the bowler compared to the bowling machine. Peak height of the backswing was higher when facing the bowler, along with a significantly larger step length. Altering the informational constraints of practice caused major changes to the information–movement couplings of developing cricketers. Data from this study were interpreted to emanate from differences in available specifying variables under the distinct practice task constraints. Considered with previous findings, results confirmed the need to ensure representative batting task constraints in practice, cautioning against an over-reliance on ball projection machines in cricket development programmes.

Distribution of respiratory droplets in enclosed environments under different air distribution methods

Dispersion characteristics of respiratory droplets in indoor environments are of special interest in controlling transmission of airborne diseases. This study adopts an Eulerian method to investigate the spatial concentration distribution and temporal evolution of exhaled and sneezed/coughed droplets within the range of 1.0~10.0μm in an office room with three air distribution methods, i.e. mixing ventilation (MV), displacement ventilation (DV), and under-floor air distribution (UFAD). The diffusion, gravitational settling, and deposition mechanism of particulate matters are well accounted in the one-way coupling Eulerian approach. The simulation results find that exhaled droplets with diameters up to 10.0μm from normal respiration process are uniformly distributed in MV, while they are trapped in the breathing height by thermal stratifications in DV and UFAD, resulting in a high droplet concentration and a high exposure risk to other occupants. Sneezed/coughed droplets are diluted much slower in DV/UFAD than in MV. Low air speed in the breathing zone in DV/UFAD can lead to prolonged residence of droplets in the breathing zone.

Information for regulating action in sport : metastability and emergence of tactical solutions under ecological constraints

The aims of this chapter are twofold. First, we show how experiments related to nonlinear dynamical systems theory can bring about insights on the interconnectedness of different information sources for action. These include the amount of information as emphasised in conventional models of cognition and action in sport and the nature of perceptual information typically emphasised in the ecological approach. The second aim was to show how, through examining the interconnectedness of these information sources, one can study the emergence of novel tactical solutions in sport; and design experiments where tactical/decisional creativity can be observed. Within this approach it is proposed that perceptual and affective information can be manipulated during practice so that the athlete's cognitive and action systems can be transposed to a meta-stable dynamical performance region where the creation of novel action information may reside.

Dancing doctorates down-under? Defining and assessing ‘doctorateness’ when embodiment enters the thesis

Assessment frames the focus of this paper, which emerges from our collaborative research, Dancing Between Diversity and Consistency: Refining Assessment in Postgraduate Degrees in Dance, funded by the Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC). We examine the attributes of danced ‘doctorateness’, giving special attention to those factors in the Australian environment, which may endow resilience to concepts of excellence, independent thinking and originality when kinaesthetic knowledge becomes pivotal to research. Have the small pool of examiners and relationships between academia and the professional artistic environment shaped these doctorates in a particular way? Can these perspectives illuminate and forge parameters by which to legitimate danced insight? These and related issues are interrogated giving voice to supervisors, research deans, candidates and industry professionals across Australia who participated in this research project.

Physical performance and self-efficacy under happy and sad moods

Two experiments involving 87 undergraduates examined whether happiness produces increased performance on a physical task and tested whether self-efficacy mediated the results. When mood inductions covered the full range from happy to sad, mood influenced physical performance; however, evidence regarding self-efficacy was equivocal. Efficacy for the performed task was unaffected by mood, although it remained a good predictor of performance. Since mood altered efficacy for a nonperformed but more familiar task, inconsistent efficacy results could reflect task differences. Findings offer prospects for the use of mood inductions in practical sporting situations.

Under great pressure, a diamond is being formed: The SBS over time

This article observes a paradox in the recent history of the Special Broadcasting Service. It is argued that, in contrast to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, the role and general direction of SBS were not extensively debated as part of the ‘culture wars’ that occurred during the years of the Howard government. While that made SBS a less fraught space during that period, it may now be a factor in the comparative lack of support being given by the Rudd Labor government to SBS in comparison with the ABC, as some of the ‘special’ status of SBS has been blunted by its drift towards more mainstream programming and a mixed economy of commercial advertising, as well as government funding.

Tip-over injuries in children under 5 years of age in Queensland 1999-2008

Furniture and appliance related injuries in children under 5 years of age accounts for an estimated 180 emergency presentations annually in Queensland. Injuries occur when children push or pull items over, climb and fall off furniture, or climb and tip the item over. Children under 2 years of age tend to injure themselves by pulling items over onto themselves Children over 2 years of age are more likely to be injured after climbing the item and either falling off or tipping the item over onto themselves. Tip over injuries (where the item falls over and injures the child) in children under 5 years of age account for an estimated 115 emergency presentations annually in Queensland. The item most commonly associated with a tip over injury is a television (with or without the cabinet) Prevention requires better design and selection of furniture with inherent stability coupled with mechanisms to install or fix less stable items

Pram and stroller related injury in Queensland children under 5 years of age

An estimated 200 Queensland children under 5 years of age are injured every year in incidents involving prams or strollers. The majority of injuries are due to falls from or falls with the pram or stroller Nineteen children were identified as having been caught in the pram or stroller mechanism (13 sustained finger injuries). Stairs and escalators were a factor in nearly 10 percent of pram or stroller fall injuries, with children being tipped out of the pram or stroller, or rolling down the stairs in the device. Roll away injuries accounted for eight percent of all pram or stroller fall injuries (some also involving stairs) Roll away injuries could be prevented by a default brake system similar to airport trolleys. Pram or stroller failure was identified in 2% of injuries

Aberrations and pupil location under corneal topography and Hartmann-Shack illumination conditions

PURPOSE. This study was conducted to determine the magnitude of pupil center shift between the illumination conditions provided by corneal topography measurement (photopic illuminance) and by Hartmann-Shack aberrometry (mesopic illuminance) and to investigate the importance of this shift when calculating corneal aberrations and for the success of wavefront-guided surgical procedures. METHODS. Sixty-two subjects with emmetropia underwent corneal topography and Hartmann-Shack aberrometry. Corneal limbus and pupil edges were detected, and the differences between their respective centers were determined for both procedures. Corneal aberrations were calculated using the pupil centers for corneal topography and for Hartmann-Shack aberrometry. Bland-Altmann plots and paired t-tests were used to analyze the differences between corneal aberrations referenced to the two pupil centers. RESULTS. The mean magnitude (modulus) of the displacement of the pupil with the change of the illumination conditions was 0.21 ± 0.11 mm. The effect of this pupillary shift was manifest for coma corneal aberrations for 5-mm pupils, but the two sets of aberrations calculated with the two pupil positions were not significantly different. Sixty-eight percent of the population had differences in coma smaller than 0.05 µm, and only 4% had differences larger than 0.1 µm. Pupil displacement was not large enough to significantly affect other higher-order Zernike modes. CONCLUSIONS. Estimated corneal aberrations changed slightly between photopic and mesopic illumination conditions given by corneal topography and Hartmann-Shack aberrometry. However, this systematic pupil shift, according to the published tolerances ranges, is enough to deteriorate the optical quality below the theoretically predicted diffraction limit of wavefront-guided corneal surgery.

Damage assessment of 3D reinforced concrete frame under external explosion loading

Multi-storey buildings are highly vulnerable to terrorist bombing attacks in various parts of the world. Large numbers of casualties and extensive property damage result not only from blast overpressure, but also from the failing of structural components. Understanding the blast response and damage consequences of reinforced concrete (RC) building frames is therefore important when assessing multi-storey buildings designed to resist normal gravity loads. However, limited research has been conducted to identify the blast response and damage of RC frames in order to assess the vulnerability of entire buildings. This paper discusses the blast response and evaluation of damage of three-dimension (3D) RC rigid frame under potential blast loads scenarios. The explicit finite element modelling and analysis under time history blast pressure loads were carried out by LS DYNA code. Complete 3D RC frame was developed with relevant reinforcement details and material models with strain rate effect. Idealised triangular blast pressures calculated from standard manuals are applied on the front face of the model in the present investigation. The analysis results show the blast response, as displacements and material yielding of the structural elements in the RC frame. The level of damage is evaluated and classified according to the selected load case scenarios. Residual load carrying capacities are evaluated and level of damage was presented by the defined damage indices. This information is necessary to determine the vulnerability of existing multi-storey buildings with RC frames and to identify the level of damage under typical external explosion environments. It also provides basic guidance to the design of new buildings to resist blast loads.