Capital flows to Latin America: year end 2005

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2006

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: year end 2006

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments

For six years, the global economy has been driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Liquidity has flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge in credit-fuelled retail spending. Thus the effective ending of the Fed’s third round of asset purchases (QE3) at the end of October represents both a watershed and the beginning of a new stage in the world economy. The end of asset-purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, with China’s economy slowing, the Euro zone struggling to avoid a recession and the Japanese economy already in recession. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. An appreciated dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, thereby creating pressure for sellers to lower their prices. Latin American markets ended the third quarter of 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. In this changing external context, there are many signs that a slowdown in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) financial markets, particularly debt markets, which have been breaking issuance records for the past six years, may slowdown from now on. Commodity prices – including those of oil, base metals and some goods – are in a prolonged slump. The Bloomberg commodity price index, a benchmark of commodity investments, has fallen to a five-year low as China’s economy slows down, and with it the demand for commodities. Investment into the LAC region has decelerated, in large part because of a deceleration of mining investments. Latin American currencies have suffered depreciations, as current account deficits have widening for a number of countries. And LAC companies, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds may now struggle to service their debt. In October, credit-rating agency Moody’s downgraded the bonds of Brazil’s Petrobras to tow notches above speculative grade because of the impact of falling oil prices and the weaker real on its debt. Growth prospects look brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region. The Institute of International Finance expects the strengthening of the dollar to have a divergent impact across the region, however, depending on trade and financial linkages. The Institute of International Finance, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, October 2, 2014. A stronger dollar lifts U.S. purchasing power, supporting exports, growth and capital inflows in countries with close trade links to the U.S. economy. However, rising dollar financing costs will increase pressure on countries with weak external positions. Given the effects of falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, some companies in the region, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds, may now struggle to service their debts. Prospects of Fed rate hikes resulting in tighter global liquidity amid the rapid rise in the corporate external bond stock has indeed raised concerns over some companies. However, there is still a shortage of bonds at a global level and the region still enjoys good economic policy management for the most part, so LAC debt markets may continue to enjoy momentum despite occasional bursts of high volatility – even if not at the record levels of recent years.

Magnetohydrodynamic Effects On Mixed Convection Flows In Channels And Ducts

This work focuses on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mixed convection flow of electrically conducting fluids enclosed in simple 1D and 2D geometries in steady periodic regime. In particular, in Chapter one a short overview is given about the history of MHD, with reference to papers available in literature, and a listing of some of its most common technological applications, whereas Chapter two deals with the analytical formulation of the MHD problem, starting from the fluid dynamic and energy equations and adding the effects of an external imposed magnetic field using the Ohm's law and the definition of the Lorentz force. Moreover a description of the various kinds of boundary conditions is given, with particular emphasis given to their practical realization. Chapter three, four and five describe the solution procedure of mixed convective flows with MHD effects. In all cases a uniform parallel magnetic field is supposed to be present in the whole fluid domain transverse with respect to the velocity field. The steady-periodic regime will be analyzed, where the periodicity is induced by wall temperature boundary conditions, which vary in time with a sinusoidal law. Local balance equations of momentum, energy and charge will be solved analytically and numerically using as parameters either geometrical ratios or material properties. In particular, in Chapter three the solution method for the mixed convective flow in a 1D vertical parallel channel with MHD effects is illustrated. The influence of a transverse magnetic field will be studied in the steady periodic regime induced by an oscillating wall temperature. Analytical and numerical solutions will be provided in terms of velocity and temperature profiles, wall friction factors and average heat fluxes for several values of the governing parameters. In Chapter four the 2D problem of the mixed convective flow in a vertical round pipe with MHD effects is analyzed. Again, a transverse magnetic field influences the steady periodic regime induced by the oscillating wall temperature of the wall. A numerical solution is presented, obtained using a finite element approach, and as a result velocity and temperature profiles, wall friction factors and average heat fluxes are derived for several values of the Hartmann and Prandtl numbers. In Chapter five the 2D problem of the mixed convective flow in a vertical rectangular duct with MHD effects is discussed. As seen in the previous chapters, a transverse magnetic field influences the steady periodic regime induced by the oscillating wall temperature of the four walls. The numerical solution obtained using a finite element approach is presented, and a collection of results, including velocity and temperature profiles, wall friction factors and average heat fluxes, is provided for several values of, among other parameters, the duct aspect ratio. A comparison with analytical solutions is also provided, as a proof of the validity of the numerical method. Chapter six is the concluding chapter, where some reflections on the MHD effects on mixed convection flow will be made, in agreement with the experience and the results gathered in the analyses presented in the previous chapters. In the appendices special auxiliary functions and FORTRAN program listings are reported, to support the formulations used in the solution chapters.

Knowledge Flows and Networks: the Interplay between Local and Global Linkages within Bangalore IT Cluster

This doctoral work gains deeper insight into the dynamics of knowledge flows within and across clusters, unfolding their features, directions and strategic implications. Alliances, networks and personnel mobility are acknowledged as the three main channels of inter-firm knowledge flows, thus offering three heterogeneous measures to analyze the phenomenon. The interplay between the three channels and the richness of available research methods, has allowed for the elaboration of three different papers and perspectives. The common empirical setting is the IT cluster in Bangalore, for its distinguished features as a high-tech cluster and for its steady yearly two-digit growth around the service-based business model. The first paper deploys both a firm-level and a tie-level analysis, exploring the cases of 4 domestic companies and of 2 MNCs active the cluster, according to a cluster-based perspective. The distinction between business-domain knowledge and technical knowledge emerges from the qualitative evidence, further confirmed by quantitative analyses at tie-level. At firm-level, the specialization degree seems to be influencing the kind of knowledge shared, while at tie-level both the frequency of interaction and the governance mode prove to determine differences in the distribution of knowledge flows. The second paper zooms out and considers the inter-firm networks; particularly focusing on the role of cluster boundary, internal and external networks are analyzed, in their size, long-term orientation and exploration degree. The research method is purely qualitative and allows for the observation of the evolving strategic role of internal network: from exploitation-based to exploration-based. Moreover, a causal pattern is emphasized, linking the evolution and features of the external network to the evolution and features of internal network. The final paper addresses the softer and more micro-level side of knowledge flows: personnel mobility. A social capital perspective is here developed, which considers both employees’ acquisition and employees’ loss as building inter-firm ties, thus enhancing company’s overall social capital. Negative binomial regression analyses at dyad-level test the significant impact of cluster affiliation (cluster firms vs non-cluster firms), industry affiliation (IT firms vs non-IT fims) and foreign affiliation (MNCs vs domestic firms) in shaping the uneven distribution of personnel mobility, and thus of knowledge flows, among companies.

Global Stability Analysis of Turbulent Transonic Flows on Airfoil geometries

La aparición de inestabilidades en un flujo es un problema importante que puede afectar a algunas aplicaciones aerodinámicas. De hecho existen diferentes tipos de fenómenos no-estacionarios que actualmente son tema de investigación; casos como la separación a altos ángulos de ataque o el buffet transónico son dos ejemplos de cierta relevancia. El análisis de estabilidad global permite identificar la aparición de dichas condiciones inestables, proporcionando información importante sobre la región donde la inestabilidad es dominante y sobre la frecuencia del fenómeno inestable. La metodología empleada es capaz de calcular un flujo base promediado mediante una discretización con volúmenes finitos y posteriormente la solución de un problema de autovalores asociado a la linealización que aparece al perturbar el flujo base. El cálculo numérico se puede dividir en tres pasos: primero se calcula una solución estacionaria para las ecuaciones RANS, luego se extrae la matriz del Jacobiano que representa el problema linealizado y finalmente se deriva y se resuelve el problema de autovalores generalizado mediante el método iterativo de Arnoldi. Como primer caso de validación, la técnica descrita ha sido aplicada a un cilindro circular en condiciones laminares para detectar el principio de las oscilaciones de los vórtices de von Karman, y se han comparado los resultados con experimentos y cálculos anteriores. La parte más importante del estudio se centra en el análisis de flujos compresibles en régimen turbulento. La predicción de la aparición y la progresión de flujo separado a altos ángulos de ataque se han estudiado en el perfil NACA0012 en condiciones tanto subsónicas como supersónicas y en una sección del ala del A310 en condiciones de despegue. Para todas las geometrías analizadas, se ha podido observar que la separación gradual genera la aparición de un modo inestable específico para altos ángulos de ataque siempre mayores que el ángulo asociado al máximo coeficiente de sustentación. Además, se ha estudiado el problema adjunto para obtener información sobre la zona donde una fuerza externa provoca el máximo cambio en el campo fluido. El estudio se ha completado calculando el mapa de sensibilidad estructural y localizando el centro de la inestabilidad. En el presente trabajo de tesis se ha analizado otro importante fenómeno: el buffet transónico. En condiciones transónicas, la interacción entre la onda de choque y la capa límite genera una oscilación de la posición de la onda de choque y, por consiguiente, de las fuerzas aerodinámicas. El conocimiento de las condiciones críticas y su origen puede ayudar a evitar la oscilación causada por estas fuerzas. Las condiciones para las cuales comienza la inestabilidad han sido calculadas y comparadas con trabajos anteriores. Por otra parte, los resultados del correspondiente problema adjunto y el mapa de sensibilidad se han obtenido por primera vez para el buffet, indicando la región del dominio que sera necesario modificar para crear el mayor cambio en las propiedades del campo fluido. Dado el gran consumo de memoria requerido para los casos 3D, se ha realizado un estudio sobre la reducción del domino con la finalidad de reducirlo a la región donde está localizada la inestabilidad. La eficacia de dicha reducción de dominio ha sido evaluada investigando el cambio en la dimensión de la matriz del Jacobiano, no resultando muy eficiente en términos del consumo de memoria. Dado que el buffet es un problema en general tridimensional, el análisis TriGlobal de una geometría 3D podría considerarse el auténtico reto futuro. Como aproximación al problema, un primer estudio se ha realizado empleando una geometría tridimensional extruida del NACA00f2. El cálculo del flujo 3D y, por primera vez en casos tridimensionales compresibles y turbulentos, el análisis de estabilidad TriGlobal, se han llevado a cabo. La comparación de los resultados obtenidos con los resultados del anterior modelo 2D, ha permitido, primero, verificar la exactitud del cálculo 2D realizado anteriormente y también ha proporcionado una estimación del consumo de memoria requerido para el caso 3D. ABSTRACT Flow unsteadiness is an important problem in aerodynamic applications. In fact, there are several types of unsteady phenomena that are still at the cutting edge of research in the field; separation at high angles of attack and transonic buffet are two important examples. Global Stability Analysis can identify the unstable onset conditions, providing important information about the instability location in the domain and the frequency of the unstable phenomenon. The methodology computes a base flow averaged state based on a finite volume discretization and a solution for a generalized eigenvalue problem corresponding to the perturbed linearized equations. The numerical computation is then performed in three steps: first, a steady solution for the RANS equation is computed; second, the Jacobian matrix that represents the linearized problem is obtained; and finally, the generalized eigenvalue problem is derived and solved with an Arnoldi iterative method. As a first validation test, the technique has been applied on a laminar circular cylinder in order to detect the von Karman vortex shedding onset, comparing the results with experiments and with previous calculations. The main part of the study focusses on turbulent and compressible cases. The prediction of the origin and progression of separated flows at high angles of attack has been studied on the NACA0012 airfoil at subsonic and transonic conditions and for the A310 airfoil in take-off configuration. For all the analyzed geometries, it has been found that gradual separation generates the appearance of one specific unstable mode for angles of attack always greater than the ones related to the maximum lift coefficient. In addition, the adjoint problem has been studied to suggest the location of an external force that results in the largest change to the flow field. From the direct and the adjoint analysis the structural sensitivity map has been computed and the core of the instability has been located. The other important phenomenon analyzed in this work is the transonic buffet. In transonic conditions, the interaction between the shock wave and the boundary layer leads to an oscillation of the shock location and, consequently, of the aerodynamic forces. Knowing the critical operational conditions and its origin can be helpful in preventing such fluctuating forces. The instability onset has then been computed and compared with the literature. Moreover, results of the corresponding adjoint problem and a sensitivity map have been provided for the first time for the buffet problem, indicating the region that must be modified to create the biggest change in flow field properties. Because of the large memory consumption required when a 3D case is approached, a domain reduction study has been carried out with the aim of limiting the domain size to the region where the instability is located. The effectiveness of the domain reduction has been evaluated by investigating the change in the Jacobian matrix size, not being very efficient in terms of memory consumption. Since buffet is a three-dimensional problem, TriGlobal stability analysis can be seen as a future challenge. To approximate the problem, a first study has been carried out on an extruded three-dimensional geometry of the NACA0012 airfoil. The 3D flow computation and the TriGlobal stability analysis have been performed for the first time on a compressible and turbulent 3D case. The results have been compared with a 2D model, confirming that the buffet onset evaluated in the 2D case is well detected. Moreover, the computation has given an indication about the memory consumption for a 3D case.

Discrete linear stability and sensitivity analysis of fluid flows

Este trabajo presenta un método discreto para el cálculo de estabilidad hidrodinámica y análisis de sensibilidad a perturbaciones externas para ecuaciones diferenciales y en particular para las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compressible. Se utiliza una aproximación con variable compleja para obtener una precisión analítica en la evaluación de la matriz Jacobiana. Además, mapas de sensibilidad para la sensibilidad a las modificaciones del flujo de base y a una fuerza constante permiten identificar las regiones del campo fluido donde una modificacin (ej. fuerza puntual) tiene un efecto estabilizador del flujo. Se presentan cuatro casos de prueba: (1) un caso analítico para comprobar la derivación discreta, (2) una cavidad cerrada a bajo Reynolds para mostrar la mayor precisión en el cálculo de los valores propios con la aproximación de paso complejo, (3) flujo 2D en un cilindro circular para validar la metodología, y (4) flujo en un cavidad abierta, presentado para validar el método en casos de inestabilidades convectivamente inestables. Los tres últimos casos mencionados (2-4) se resolvieron con las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes compresibles, utilizando un método Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Se obtuvo una buena concordancia para el caso de validación (3), cuando se comparó el nuevo método con resultados de la literatura. Además, este trabajo muestra que para el cálculo de los modos propios directos y adjuntos, así como para los mapas de sensibilidad, el uso de variables complejas es de suprema importancia para obtener una predicción precisa. El método descrito es aplicado al análisis para la estabilización de la estela generada por un disco actuador, que representa un modelo sencillo para hélices, rotores de helicópteros o turbinas eólicas. Se explora la primera bifurcación del flujo para un disco actuador, y se sugiere que está asociada a una inestabilidad de tipo Kelvin-Helmholtz, cuya estabilidad se controla con en el número de Reynolds y en la resistencia del disco actuador (o fuerza resistente). En primer lugar, se verifica que la disminución de la resistencia del disco tiene un efecto estabilizador parecido a una disminución del Reynolds. En segundo lugar, el análisis hidrodinmico discreto identifica dos regiones para la colocación de una fuerza puntual que controle las inestabilidades, una cerca del disco y otra en una zona aguas abajo. En tercer lugar, se muestra que la inclusión de un forzamiento localizado cerca del actuador produce una estabilización más eficiente que al forzar aguas abajo. El análisis de los campos de flujo controlados confirma que modificando el gradiente de velocidad cerca del actuador es más eficiente para estabilizar la estela. Estos resultados podrían proporcionar nuevas directrices para la estabilización de la estela de turbinas de viento o de marea cuando estén instaladas en un parque eólico y minimizar las interacciones no estacionarias entre turbinas. ABSTRACT A discrete framework for computing the global stability and sensitivity analysis to external perturbations for any set of partial differential equations is presented. In particular, a complex-step approximation is used to achieve near analytical accuracy for the evaluation of the Jacobian matrix. Sensitivity maps for the sensitivity to base flow modifications and to a steady force are computed to identify regions of the flow field where an input could have a stabilising effect. Four test cases are presented: (1) an analytical test case to prove the theory of the discrete framework, (2) a lid-driven cavity at low Reynolds case to show the improved accuracy in the calculation of the eigenvalues when using the complex-step approximation, (3) the 2D flow past a circular cylinder at just below the critical Reynolds number is used to validate the methodology, and finally, (4) the flow past an open cavity is presented to give an example of the discrete method applied to a convectively unstable case. The latter three (2–4) of the aforementioned cases were solved with the 2D compressible Navier–Stokes equations using a Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Element Method. Good agreement was obtained for the validation test case, (3), with appropriate results in the literature. Furthermore, it is shown that for the calculation of the direct and adjoint eigenmodes and their sensitivity maps to external perturbations, the use of complex variables is paramount for obtaining an accurate prediction. An analysis for stabilising the wake past an actuator disc, which represents a simple model for propellers, helicopter rotors or wind turbines is also presented. We explore the first flow bifurcation for an actuator disc and it suggests that it is associated to a Kelvin- Helmholtz type instability whose stability relies on the Reynolds number and the flow resistance applied through the disc (or actuator forcing). First, we report that decreasing the disc resistance has a similar stabilising effect to an decrease in the Reynolds number. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the disc and one far downstream where the instability originates. Third, we show that adding a localised forcing close to the actuator provides more stabilisation that forcing far downstream. The analysis of the controlled flow fields, confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the actuator is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the sheared flow far downstream. An interesting application of these results is to provide guidelines for stabilising the wake of wind or tidal turbines when placed in an energy farm to minimise unsteady interactions.

Numerical Comparison of the Drag Models of Granular Flows Applied to the Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

The paper presents a comparison between the different drag models for granular flows developed in the literature and the effect of each one of them on the fast pyrolysis of wood. The process takes place on an 100 g/h lab scale bubbling fluidized bed reactor located at Aston University. FLUENT 6.3 is used as the modeling framework of the fluidized bed hydrodynamics, while the fast pyrolysis of the discrete wood particles is incorporated as an external user defined function (UDF) hooked to FLUENT’s main code structure. Three different drag models for granular flows are compared, namely the Gidaspow, Syamlal O’Brien, and Wen-Yu, already incorporated in FLUENT’s main code, and their impact on particle trajectory, heat transfer, degradation rate, product yields, and char residence time is quantified. The Eulerian approach is used to model the bubbling behavior of the sand, which is treated as a continuum. Biomass reaction kinetics is modeled according to the literature using a two-stage, semiglobal model that takes into account secondary reactions.