Definición e implantación de herramientas avanzadas 3D en el diseño integrado y eficiente de sistemas HVAC en buques, desde el proyecto conceptual hasta la producción

Uno de los aspectos más complicados del diseño de sistemas HVAC en buques es la correcta evaluación de las necesidades de aire fresco y el correcto dimensionado de los conductos que suministran dicho aire y evacuan el calor generado a bordo. Contrariamente a lo que sucede en los sistemas de tuberías, las características particulares del caudal de aire hacen que el dimensionado de los conductos sea muy sensible al trazado y geometría de los mismos, por lo que para obtener un buen diseño es necesaria una relación muy estrecha y una integración bidireccional entre los cálculos y el trazado de los propios conductos en el buque. Asumida la utilización de sistemas CAD/CAM para las tareas de diseño, históricamente, aquellos que permitían modelar conductos HVAC no incluían en su alcance de suministro los aspectos de cálculo, y como consecuencia de ello, el trazado de conductos se reducía a la inclusión en el modelo 3D de circuitos y sistemas previamente calculados y dimensionados, Así, servían únicamente para calcular interferencias con otros elementos del modelo 3D y para obtener posteriormente planos de fabricación y montaje. Esto, que por sí no es poco, dejaba el diseño de sistemas HVAC pendiente de una importante interacción manual y de habituales retrabajos, ya que cualquier modificación en el trazado de los conductos, consecuencia de otras necesidades del diseño, obligaba a los diseñadores a recalcular y redimensionar los conductos en un entorno diferente al del propio sistema CAD/CAM, y volver a realizar el modelado de los mismos, reduciendo significativamente las ventajas de la utilización de un modelo 3D. Partiendo de esta situación real, y con objeto de solucionar el problema que para el diseño y la propia producción del buque se creaba, se concibió una herramienta que permitiera la definición en el modelo 3D de diagramas de ventilación, el cálculo de pérdidas de presión, el dimensionado automático de los conductos, y que toda esta información pudiera estar disponible y reutilizarse en las etapas posteriores del diseño. Con ello, los diseñadores podrían realizar su trabajo en un entorno único, totalmente integrado con el resto de disciplinas. El objeto de esta Tesis Doctoral es analizar en detalle el problema y las ineficiencias actuales del diseño de HVAC, describir la innovadora herramienta concebida para paliar estas ineficiencias, detallando las bases sobre la que se construye, y destacar las ventajas que se obtienen de su uso. La herramienta en cuestión fue concebida como una funcionalidad adicional del sistema CAD/CAM naval FORAN, referente tecnológico en el mundo del diseño y la construcción navales, y como consecuencia de ellos se llevó a cabo el desarrollo correspondiente. En la actualidad, el sistema FORAN incluye en su alcance de suministro una primera versión de esta herramienta, cuya utilidad queda avalada por el uso que de la misma hacen astilleros y oficinas técnicas en todo el mundo. Esta Tesis Doctoral es eminentemente práctica. No es un estudio teórico de dudosa aplicación, sino que tiene por objeto aportar una solución eficiente a un problema real que muchos astilleros y oficinas técnicas, incluidas los más avanzados, padecen hoy en día. No tiene otra motivación que servir de ayuda para lograr diseñar y construir mejores barcos, en un plazo más corto, y a un coste menor. Nada más, pero nada menos. ABSTRACT One of the most complicated aspects of the design of HVAC systems in shipbuilding is the correct evaluation of the fresh air needs, the correct balancing of the ducts that supply this air and evacuate the existing heat on board. In opposition to piping systems, due to the particular characteristics of the air flow, the balancing of the ducts is very sensitive to the routing and the aspect of the ducts, so the correct design requires a close interconnectivity between calculations and routing. Already assumed the use of CAD/CAM systems for design tasks, historically, those CAD/CAM systems capable of modelling HVAC ducts did not cover calculation aspects, with the result that the routing of HVAC ducts was reduced solely to the input of previously balanced circuits into the 3D Product Model for the purpose of interference checking and generation of fabrication and assembly drawings. This situation, not negligible at all, put the design of HVAC ducts very dependent on manual operations and common rework task, as any modification in the routing of the HVAC ducts, derived from design needs, obliged engineers to re-balance the ducts and eventually to re-size them independently of the CAD-CAM environment, thus annulling the advantages of the 3D Product Model. With this situation in mind, and with the objective of filling the gap created in the design and construction of the ship, it was conceived a tool allowing the definition, within the 3D Product model, of HVAC diagrams, the calculation of pressure drops, the automatic dimensioning of ducts. With this, engineers could make the complete HVAC design in a single working environment, fully integrated with the rest of the disciplines. The present Ph. D. thesis analyses in deep the existing problem and the current lack of efficiency in HVAC design, describes the innovative tool conceived to minimize it, details the basis on which the tool is built, and highlights the advantages of its use. This tool was conceived as an additional functionality of the marine CAD/CAM system FORAN, a technological reference in the shipdesign and shipbuilding industry. As a consequence, it was developed, and nowadays FORAN System includes in its scope of supply a first version of the tool, with its usefulness endorsed by the fact that it is used by shipyards and shipdesign offices all over the world. This Ph. D. thesis is on top everything, of practical nature. It is not a theoretical study with doubtful application. On the contrary, its objective is to provide with an efficient solution for solving a real problem that many shipyards and shipdesign offices, including those more advanced, suffer nowadays. It has no other motivation that to help in the process of designing and building better and cheaper ships, within a shorter deliver time. Nothing more, but nothing less.

Annotated almanac, 1775

Almanac containing one laid-in leaf and interleaved pages with entries in John Winthrop's hand. The interleaved pages include entries include brief, nearly daily notes of social engagements and travel by Winthrop during the year the Winthrops were forced to evacuate Cambridge because of the Revolutionary War. The short entries include notes of the Battle of Concord (April 19), a fire in Boston (May 17), the Battle of Bunker Hill (June 17), the choosing of councillors at Concord (June 21), and the notable entries "wth Genl Washington (August 12)" and "All day packg up Apparatus & Library" (June 16). The laid-in leaf contains an account of household purchases made while the Winthrops were living with Nehemiah Abbot Andover from May to June and later in Concord. The laid-in leaf is written on a note beginning "Mr. Winthrop presents his most respectful compliments to the Hon'ble Col. Hancock and to the rest of the Gentlemen Select-men..."

An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

ADCP current profiles and conductivity and temperature collected at two points of Camarinal Sill, Strait of Gibraltar

The present study addresses the hypothesis that the Western Alborán Gyre in the Alborán Sea (the westernmost Mediterranean basin adjacent to the Strait of Gibraltar) influences the composition of the outflow through the Strait of Gibraltar. The process invoked is that strong and well-developed gyres help to evacuate the Western Mediterranean Deep Water from the Alboran basin, thus increasing its presence in the outflow, whereas weak gyres facilitates the outflow of Levantine and other Intermediate waters. To this aim, in situ observations collected at Camarinal (the main) and Espartel (the westernmost) sills of the Strait have been analyzed along with altimetry data, which were employed to obtain a representative proxy of the strength of the gyre. An encouraging correlation of the expected sign was observed between the time series of potential temperature at Espartel sill, which is show to keep information on the outflow composition, and the proxy of the Western Alborán Gyre, which strongly suggests the correctness of the hypothesis, although the weakness of the involved signals does not allow for drawing definitive conclusions.

Data Science Seminar: Generic Big Data Processing for Advancing Situation Awareness and Decision-Support

The generation of heterogeneous big data sources with ever increasing volumes, velocities and veracities over the he last few years has inspired the data science and research community to address the challenge of extracting knowledge form big data. Such a wealth of generated data across the board can be intelligently exploited to advance our knowledge about our environment, public health, critical infrastructure and security. In recent years we have developed generic approaches to process such big data at multiple levels for advancing decision-support. It specifically concerns data processing with semantic harmonisation, low level fusion, analytics, knowledge modelling with high level fusion and reasoning. Such approaches will be introduced and presented in context of the TRIDEC project results on critical oil and gas industry drilling operations and also the ongoing large eVacuate project on critical crowd behaviour detection in confined spaces.

Volcanic processes and human exposure as elements to build a risk model for Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

The activity of Fuego volcano during the 1999 - 2013 eruptive episode is studied through field, remote sensing and observatory records. Mapping of the deposits allows quantifying the erupted volumes and areas affected by the largest eruptions during this period. A wide range of volcanic processes results in a diversity of products and associated deposits, including minor airfall tephra, rockfall avalanches, lava flows, and pyroclastic flows. The activity can be characterized by long term, low level background activity, and sporadic larger explosive eruptions. Although the background activity erupts lava and ash at a low rate (~ 0.1 m3/s), the persistence of such activity over time results in a significant contribution (~ 30%) to the eruption budget during the studied period. Larger eruptions produced the majority of the volume of products during the studied period, mainly during three large events (May 21, 1999, June 29, 2003, and September 13, 2012), mostly in the form of pyroclastic flows. A total volume of ~ 1.4 x 108 m3 was estimated from the mapped deposits and the estimated background eruption rate. Posterior remobilization of pyroclastic flow material by stream erosion in the highly confined Barranca channels leads to lahar generation, either by normal rainfall, or by extreme rainfall events. A reassessment of the types of products and volumes erupted during the decade of 1970's allows comparing the activity happening since 1999 with the older activity, and suggests that many of the eruptive phenomena at Fuego may have similar mechanisms, despite the differences in scale between. The deposits of large pyroclastic flows erupted during the 1970's are remarkably similar in appearance to the deposit of pyroclastic flows from the 1999 - 2013 period, despite their much larger volume; this is also the case for prehistoric eruptions. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic flow deposits suggests that Fuego has produced large eruptions many times during the last ~ 2 ka, including larger eruptions during the last 500 years, which has important hazard implications. A survey was conducted among the local residents living near to the volcano, about their expectations of possible future crises. The results show that people are aware of the risk they could face in case of a large eruption, and therefore they are willing to evacuate in such case. However, their decision to evacuate may also be influenced by the conditions in which the evacuation could take place. If the evacuation represents a potential loss of their livelihood or property they will be more hesitant to leave their villages during a large eruption. The prospect of facing hardship conditions during the evacuation and in the shelters may further cause reluctance to evacuate. A short discussion on some of the issues regarding risk assessment and management through an early warning system is presented in the last chapter.

Application of a Bivariate Probit Model to Investigate the Intended Evacuation from Hurricane

With evidence of increasing hurricane risks in Georgia Coastal Area (GCA) and Virginia in the U.S. Southeast and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is becoming more and more important for community planners. My research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to hurricane risks, a behavioral survey of the six counties in GCA under the direction of two social scientists with extensive experience in survey research related to citizen and household response to emergencies and disasters. Respondents gave answers whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit models are used to investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondents are concerned about the hurricane, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a lot of demographic and socioeconomic variables (e.g., gender, military, age, length of residence, owning vehicles).