Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

Sazonalidade da precipitação para a Amazônia usando o modelo REGCM3: avaliando apenas a forçante do Atlântico Equatorial

O presente estudo tenta trazer um novo ponto de vista sobre a importância do Oceano Atlântico Equatorial no padrão sazonal, durante o período de verão e de outono da região Amazônica. Desta maneira, contribui de uma forma diferente para os estudos na área de modelagem climática e variabilidade pluviométrica na região. Para isto, foi utilizado o modelo RegCM3, com esquema de convecção Grell, aplicando a técnica donwscaling e utilizando como condição inicial os dados de reanalise do NCEP/NCAR. Após a obtenção das simulações foi aplicado o método estatístico Viés para avaliar o quanto o modelo consegue reproduzir a precipitação sazonal. Em uma primeira análise, constata-se que o modelo é sensível a entrada de SF ou ZCAS, bem como, aproxima-se da dinâmica dos trópicos e extratropicos. Os resultados sugerem que a baixa resolução e a parametrização Grell são os principais fatores para a inadequação da qualidade das simulações. Apesar de o esquema Grell ser indicado para regiões com intensa convecção e fortes movimentos verticais, o mesmo necessita ser ajustado com as características físicas da região. Este estudo contribuiu para o aprimoramento dos modelos climáticos regionais para a região amazônica, considerando a contribuição dos processos oceano-atmosfera, durante o período de verão e outono do hemisfério sul.

Influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability

The influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability has been investigated using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model Speedy-MICOM (Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model). In the ocean model MICOM the strength of the meridional overturning cell can be regulated by specifying the lateral boundary conditions. In case of a collapse of the basinwide meridional overturning cell the SST response in the Atlantic is characterized by a dipole with a cooling in the North Atlantic and a warming in the tropical and South Atlantic. The cooling in the North Atlantic is due to the decrease in the strength of the western boundary currents, which reduces the northward advection of heat. The warming in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a reduced ventilation of water originating from the South Atlantic. This effect is most prominent in the eastern tropical Atlantic during boreal summer when the mixed layer attains its minimum depth. As a consequence the seasonal cycle as well as the interannual variability in SST is reduced. The characteristics of the cold tongue mode are changed: the variability in the eastern equatorial region is strongly reduced and the largest variability is now in the Benguela, Angola region. Because of the deepening of the equatorial thermocline, variations in the thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Atlantic no longer significantly affect the mixed layer temperature. The gradient mode remains unaltered. The warming of the tropical Atlantic enhances and shifts the Hadley circulation. Together with the cooling in the North Atlantic, this increases the strength of the subtropical jet and the baroclinicity over the North Atlantic.

The last mangroves of Marajo Island - Eastern Amazon: Impact of climate and/or relative sea-level changes

The dynamics, over the last 7500 years, of a mangrove at Marajo Island in northern Brazil were studied by pollen and sedimentary facies analyses using sediment cores. This island, located at the mouth of the Amazon River. is influenced by riverine inflow combined with tidal fluctuations of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Herbaceous vegetation intermingled with rainforest dominates the central area of the island, while varzea is the main vegetation type along the littoral. In particular, the modem northeastern coastal zone is covered by a mosaic of dense rainforest, herbaceous vegetation, mangroves, varzea, and restinga. The integration of pollen data and fades descriptions indicates a tidal mud flat colonized by mangroves in the interior of Marajo Island between similar to 7500 cal yr BP and similar to 3200 cal yr BP. During the late Holocene, mangroves retracted to a small area (100-700 m in width) along the northeastern coastal plain. Mangrove expansion during the early and mid Holocene was likely caused by the post-glacial sea-level rise which, combined with tectonic subsidence, led to a rise in tidal water salinity. Salinity must have further increased due to low river discharge resulting from increased aridity during the early and mid Holocene. The shrinking of the area covered by mangrove vegetation during the late Holocene was likely caused by the increase in river discharge during the late Holocene, which has maintained relatively low tidal water salinity in Marajo Island. Tidal water salinity is relatively higher in the northeastern part of the island than in others, due to the southeast-northwest trending current along the littoral. The mixing of marine and riverine freshwater inflows has provided a refuge for mangroves in this area. The increase in flow energy during the last century is related to landward sand migration, which explains the current retraction of mangroves. These changes may indicate an increased exposure to tidal influence driven by the relative sea-level rise, either associated with global fluctuations or tectonic subsidence, and/or by an increase in river water discharge. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.

Climate science: Pacemakers of warming

In the first decades of the twentieth century, the Earth warmed rapidly. A coral-based climate proxy record of westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific suggests that wind strength and warming rate were linked, as they are today.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949–2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing bservation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14°C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

Cenomanian/Turonian sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Atlantic reconstructed from geochemical data

Oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE-2) occurring during the Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) transition is evident from a globally recognized positive stable carbon isotopic excursion and is thought to represent one of the most extreme carbon cycle perturbations of the last 100 Myr. However, the impact of this major perturbation on and interaction with global climate remains unclear. Here we report new high-resolution records of sea surface temperature (SST) based on TEX86 and d 18O of excellently preserved planktic foraminifera and stable organic carbon isotopes across the C/T transition from black shales located offshore Suriname/French Guiana (Demerara Rise, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 Site 1260) and offshore Senegal (Cape Verde Basin, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 41 Site 367). At Site 1260, where both SST proxy records can be determined, a good match between conservative SST estimates from TEX86 and d 18O is observed. We find that late Cenomanian SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean (33°C) were substantially warmer than today (27°-29°C) and that the onset of OAE-2 coincided with a rapid shift to an even warmer (35°-36°C) regime. Within the early stages of the OAE a marked (4°C) cooling to temperatures lower than pre-OAE conditions is observed. However, well before the termination of OAE-2 the warm regime was reestablished and persisted into the Turonian. Our findings corroborate the view that the C/T transition represents the onset of the interval of peak Cretaceous warmth. More importantly, they are consistent with the hypotheses that mid-Cretaceous warmth can be attributed to high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and that major OAEs were capable of triggering global cooling through the negative feedback effect of organic carbon-burial-led CO2 sequestration. Evidently, however, the factors that gave rise to the observed shift to a warmer climate regime at the onset of OAE-2 were sufficiently powerful that they were only briefly counterbalanced by the high rates of carbon burial attained during even the most extreme interval of organic carbon burial in the last 100 Myr.

Sea-surface reconstruction of the east-equatorial South Atlantic

In order to reconstruct Late Quatemary variations of surface oceanography in the eastequatorial South Atlantic, time series of sea-surface temperatures (SST) and paleoproductivity were established from cores recovered in the Guinea and Angola Basins, and at the Walvis Ridge. These records, based on sedimentary alkenone and organic carbon concentrations, reveal that during the last 350,000 years surface circulation and productivity changes in the east-equatorial South Atlantic were highiy sensitive to climate forcing at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. Covarying SST and paleoproductivity changes at the equator and at the Walvis Ridge appear to be driven by variations in zonal trade-wind intensity, which forces intensification or reduction of coastal and equatorial upwelling, as well as enhanced Benguela cold water advection from the South. Phase relationships of precessional variations in the paleoproductivity and SST records from the distinct sites were evaluated with respect to boreal summer insolation over Africa, movements of southem ocean thermal fronts, and changes in global ice volume. The 23-kyr phasing implies a sensitivity of eastem South Atlantic surface water advection and upwelling to West African monsoon intensity and to changes in the position ofthe subtropical high pressure cell over the South Atlantic, both phenomena which modulate zonal strength of southeasterly trades. SST and productivity changes north of 20°S lack significant variance at the 41-kyr periodicity; and at the Walvis Ridge and the equator lead changes in ice volume. This may indicate that obliquity-driven clirnate change, characteristic for northem high latitudes, e.g fluctuations in continental ice masses, did not substantially influence subtropical and tropical surface circulation in the South Atlantic. At the 23-kyr cycle SST and productivity changes in the eastern Angola Basin lag those in the equatorial Atlantic and at the Walvis Ridge by about 3500 years. This lag is explained by variations in cross-equatorial surface water transport and west-east countercurrent retum flow modifying precessional variations of SST and productivity in the eastem Angola Basin relative to those in the mid South Atlantic area under the central field of zonal trade winds. Sea level-related shifts of upwelling cells in phase with global clirnate change may be also recorded in SST and productivity variability along the continental margin off Southwest Africa. They may account for the delay of the paleoceanogreaphic signal from continental margin sites with respect to that from the pelagic sites at the equator and the Walvis Ridge.

Sedimentation at Manop Site H in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Gravity cores recovered from Manganese Nodule Project site H (6°33'N, 92°49'W) show marked downcore variations in the abundance of calcium carbonate, organic carbon, opal, manganese, and other components deposited over the past 400,000 years. Variations in the downcore abundance of organic carbon, which ranges from 0.2 to 1.0%, can be used to hindcast redox conditions in the surface sediments over this time. The results indicate that the depth to the manganese redox boundary varied from about 5 to 25 cm below the seafloor during four major cycles. Downcore variations in solid phase Mn, Ni, and Cu can be produced by such changes in redox conditions. A model which predicts that solid phase Mn can be trapped and buried when the Mn redox boundary migrates rapidly upward is consistent with the observed organic carbon and Mn records and supports the reconstructed redox variations. The history of redox variations at site H can be explained by changes with time in surface water productivity. Major productivity variations at the site occur over 100-kyr cycles, with relatively higher productivity occurring during glacial stages. Thus Quaternary climate changes influence surface water productivity, redox conditions in sediments, and the cycling of transition metals.

Chemistry and accumulation rates of Jurassic to early Cretaceous sediments from the central equatorial Pacific

Sedimentation in the central Pacific during the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous was dominated by abundant biogenic silica. A synthesis of the stratigraphy, lithology, petrology, and geochemistry of the radiolarites in Sites 801 and 800 documents the sedimentation processes and trends in the equatorial central Pacific from the Middle Jurassic through the Early Cretaceous. Paleolatitude and paleodepth reconstructions enable comparisons with previous DSDP sites and identification of the general patterns of sedimentation over a wide region of the Pacific. Clayey radiolarites dominated sedimentation on Pacific oceanic crust within tropical paleolatitudes from at least the latest Bathonian through Tithonian. Radiolarian productivity rose to a peak within 5° of the paleoequator, where accumulation rates of biogenic silica exceeded 1000 g/cm**2/m.y. Wavy-bedded radiolarian cherts developed in the upper Tithonian at Site 801 coinciding with the proximity of this site to the paleoequator. Ribbon-bedding of some radiolarian cherts exposed on Pacific margins may have formed from silicification of radiolarite deposited near the equatorial high-productivity zone where radiolarian/clay ratios were high. Silicification processes in sediments extensively mixed by bioturbation or enriched in clay or carbonate generally resulted in discontinuous bands or nodules of porcellanite or chert, e.g., a "knobby" radiolarite. Ribbon-bedded cherts require primary alternations of radiolarian-rich and clay-rich layers as an initial structural template, coupled with abundant biogenic silica in both layers. During diagenesis, migration of silica from clay-rich layers leaves radiolarian "ghosts" or voids, and the precipitation in adjacent radiolarite layers results in silicification of the inter-radiolarian matrix and infilling of radiolarian tests. Alternations of claystone and clay-rich radiolarian grainstone were deposited during the Callovian at Site 801 and during the Berriasian-Valanginian at Site 800, but did not silicify to form bedded chert. Carbonate was not preserved on the Pacific oceanic floor or spreading ridges during the Jurassic, perhaps due to an elevated level of dissolved carbon dioxide. During the Berriasian through Hauterivian, the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) descended to approximately 3500 m, permitting the accumulation of siliceous limestones at near-ridge sites. Carbonate accumulation rates exceeded 1500 g/cm**2/m.y. at sites above the CCD, yet there is no evidence of an equatorial carbonate bulge during the Early Cretaceous. In the Barremian and Aptian, the CCD rose, coincident with the onset of mid-plate volcanic activity. Abundance of Fe and Mn and the associated formation of authigenic Fe-smectite clays was a function of proximity to the spreading ridges, with secondary enrichments occurring during episodes of spreading-center reorganizations. Callovian radiolarite at Site 801 is anomalously depleted in Mn, which resulted either from inhibited precipitation of Mn-oxides by lower pH of interstitial waters induced by high dissolved oceanic CO2 levels or from diagenetic mobilization of Mn. Influx of terrigenous (eolian) clay apparently changed with paleolatitude and geological age. Cyclic variations in productivity of radiolarians and of nannofossils and in the influx of terrigenous clay are attributed to Milankovitch climatic cycles of precession (20,000 yr) and eccentricity (100,000 yr). Diagenetic redistribution of biogenic silica and carbonate enhanced the expression of this cyclic sedimentation. Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous sediments were deposited under oxygenated bottom-water conditions at all depths, accompanied by bioturbation and pervasive oxidation of organic carbon and metals. Despite the more "equable" climate conditions of the Mesozoic, the super-ocean of the Pacific experienced adequate deep-water circulation to prevent stagnation. Efficient nutrient recycling may have been a factor in the abundance of radiolarians in this ocean basin.