Utilização de diagramas causais em confundimento e viés de seleção.

Apesar do crescente reconhecimento do potencial dos diagramas causais por epidemiologistas, essa técnica ainda é pouco utilizada na investigação epidemiológica. Uma das possíveis razões é que muitos temas de investigação exigem modelos causais complexos. Neste trabalho, a relação entre estresse ocupacional e obesidade é utilizada como um exemplo de aplicação de diagramas causais em questões relacionadas a confundimento. São apresentadas etapas da utilização dos diagramas causais, incluindo a construção do gráfico acíclico direcionado, seleção de variáveis para ajuste estatístico e a derivação das implicações estatísticas de um diagrama causal. A principal vantagem dos diagramas causais é tornar explícitas as hipóteses adjacentes ao modelo considerado, permitindo que suas implicações possam ser analisadas criticamente, facilitando, desta forma, a identificação de possíveis fontes de viés e incerteza nos resultados de um estudo epidemiológico.

The Frequency and Impact of Exposure to Potentially Traumatic Events Over the Life Course.

We examined the frequency and impact of exposure to potentially traumatic events among a nonclinical sample of older adults (n = 3,575), a population typically underrepresented in epidemiological research concerning the prevalence of traumatic events. Current PTSD symptom severity and the centrality of events to identity were assessed for events nominated as currently most distressing. Approximately 90% of participants experienced one or more potentially traumatic events. Events that occurred with greater frequency early in the life course were associated with more severe PTSD symptoms compared to events that occurred with greater frequency during later decades. Early life traumas, however, were not more central to identity. Results underscore the differential impact of traumatic events experienced throughout the life course. We conclude with suggestions for further research concerning mechanisms that promote the persistence of post-traumatic stress related to early life traumas and empirical evaluation of psychotherapeutic treatments for older adults with PTSD.

Diagnosing diabetes mellitus - Do we need new criteria?

The current classification and diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus were introduced by the United States National Data Group in 1979 and endorsed by the World Health Organization in 1980, with modifications in 1985 and 1994. The criteria, chosen to reflect the risk of complications, were the synthesis of considerable thought and expertise and represented a consensus which, it was hoped, would prove helpful to all those involved with diabetes practising clinician, research scientist and epidemiologist alike. The inconvenience, variability and nonphysiological nature of the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) are well-recognised. In spite of these limitations the 2-h post-load plasma glucose has remained the standard against which all other tests have been evaluated. This article reviews the original justification for the OGTT, and in the light of more recent epidemiological research seeks to place the current diagnostic criteria for diabetes into a pathophysiological, diagnostic and prognostic perspective.

Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease:a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) onboard the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study anti control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

Traumatic brain injury and co-occurring problems in prison populations: a systematic review.

Background: A growing body of epidemiological research suggests high rates of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in prisoners. The aim of this review is to systematically explore the literature surrounding the rates of TBI and their co-occurrences in a prison population.
Methods: Six electronic databases were systematically searched for articles published between 1980 and 2014. Studies were screened for inclusion based on predetermined criteria by two researchers who independently performed data extraction. Study quality was appraised based on a modified quality assessment tool.
Results: Twenty six studies were included in this review. Quality assessment ranged from 20% (poor) to 80% (good) with an overall average of 60%. Twenty four papers included TBI prevalence rates, which ranged from 5.69%-88%. Seventeen studies explored co-occurring factors including rates of aggression (n=7), substance abuse (n=9), anxiety and depression (n=5), neurocognitive deficits (n=4), and psychiatric conditions (n=3).
Conclusions: The high degree of variation in TBI rates may be attributed to the inconsistent way in which TBI was measured with only seven studies using valid and reliable screening tools. Additionally, gaps in the literature surrounding personality outcomes in prisoners with TBI, female prisoners with TBI, and qualitative outcomes were found.

Amiante et conflits d’intérêts : l’Université McGill pointée du doigt

Étude de cas / Case study

Prevalencia de enfermedad celiaca en Latinoamérica: revisión sistemática de la literatura y meta-análisis

Introducción: La enfermedad celiaca (EC) es una enfermedad autoinmune (EA) intestinal desencadenada por la ingesta de gluten. Por la falta de información de la presencia de EC en Latinoamérica (LA), nosotros investigamos la prevalencia de la enfermedad en esta región utilizando una revisión sistemática de la literatura y un meta-análisis. Métodos y resultados: Este trabajo fue realizado en dos fases: La primera, fue un estudio de corte transversal de 300 individuos Colombianos. La segunda, fue una revisión sistemática y una meta-regresión siguiendo las guías PRSIMA. Nuestros resultados ponen de manifiesto una falta de anti-transglutaminasa tisular (tTG) e IgA anti-endomisio (EMA) en la población Colombiana. En la revisión sistemática, 72 artículos cumplían con los criterios de selección, la prevalencia estimada de EC en LA fue de 0,46% a 0,64%, mientras que la prevalencia en familiares de primer grado fue de 5,5 a 5,6%, y en los pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo 1 fue de 4,6% a 8,7% Conclusión: Nuestro estudio muestra que la prevalencia de EC en pacientes sanos de LA es similar a la notificada en la población europea.

Development and validation of the influenza intensity and impact questionnaire (FluiiQ™)

Clinical trials of new agents to reduce the severity and impact of influenza require accurate assessment of the effect of influenza infection. Because there are limited high-quality adult influenza Patient Reported Outcomes (PRO) measures, the aim was to develop and validate a simple but comprehensive questionnaire for epidemiological research and clinical trials.

From cholera outbreaks to pandemics : the role of poverty and inequality

Cholera and other diarrheal diseases are the second leading cause of death among the poor globally. The tragedy of this statistic is that it need not be the case. Unlike many afflictions, the impact of cholera can be greatly reduced, if not eliminated, through the provision of clean water services. This begs the question of why such provision is absent in much of the world. It is our contention that the provision of clean water services is an increasing function of both a country's level of income and income equality. We test these hypotheses by analyzing 1,032 annual observations arising from 55 relatively poor countries between the years 1980 and 2002. In the primary part of the analysis, we find that providing clean water is, as predicted, an increasing function of income and equality. Following this, and consistent with the existing epidemiological research on cholera, we find that both the numbers of cases and deaths resulting from a given cholera outbreak are strongly and negatively related to the provision of clean water.

Development and validation of the influenza intensity and impact questionnaire (FluiiQ™)

Objective
Clinical trials of new agents to reduce the severity and impact of influenza require accurate assessment of the effect of influenza infection. Because there are limited high-quality adult influenza Patient Reported Outcomes (PRO) measures, the aim was to develop and validate a simple but comprehensive questionnaire for epidemiological research and clinical trials.

Methods
Construct and item generation was guided by the literature, concept mapping, focus groups, and interviews with individuals with laboratory-confirmed influenza and expert physicians. Items were administered to 311 people with influenza-like illness (ILI) across 25 US sites. Analyses included classic psychometrics, structural equation modeling (SEM), and Rasch analyses.

Results
Concept mapping generated 149 concepts covering the influenza experience and clustered into symptoms and impact on daily activities, emotions, and others. Items were drafted using simplicity and brevity criteria. Eleven symptoms from the literature underwent review by physicians and patients, and two were removed and one added. The symptoms domain factored into systemic and respiratory symptoms, whereas the impact domains were unidimensional. All domains displayed good internal consistency (Cronbach α ≥ 0.8) except the three-item respiratory domain (α = 0.48). A five-factor SEM indicated excellent fit where systemic, respiratory, and daily activities domains differentiated patients with ILI or confirmed influenza. All scales were responsive over time.

Conclusions
Patient and clinician consultations resulted in an influenza PRO measure with high validity and good overall evidence of reliability and responsiveness. The Influenza Intensity and Impact Questionnaire (FluiiQ™) will improve the evaluation of existing and future agents designed to prevent or control influenza infection by increasing the breadth and depth of measurement in this field.

The epidemiology of cataract: a review of the literature

Cataract is a major cause of blindness, accounting for nearly half of all blindness worldwide. Epidemiological research provides the principles and methods to assess the extent of cataract, and supplies the necessary information for policy planning. Obtaining accurate epidemiological data on cataract is essential to ascertain and estimate the cost of primary and secondary eye health care needs. Determining risk factors is also necessary to reduce the economic and social repercussions associated with the disease. The following paper presents a review of the epidemiology of cataract in the middle to elderly age group.

The importance of epidemiology in understanding eye disease

Most leading causes of visual impairment are age related, so the health care implications of an increasing prevalence of eye disease in the elderly are significant. Epidemiological research provides the foundation to address immediate and long-term needs associated with visual impairment and eye disease. It contributes to a community's knowledge of the presence, diagnosis, characteristics, and distribution of eye conditions affecting the elderly. Obtaining accurate epidemiological information on the extent of visual impairment and eye disease in the community is essential to determine and estimate the cost of primary and secondary eye health care needs.

Should we worry about the observer effect? evidence from Pelotas

Most social sciences and medical studies assume that being observed does not affect subjects' behavior. However, interviews may cause changes in individuals' behavior or may inhibit changes which would occur if they were not being observed. If being observed changes the behavior of the studied population, the sample ceases to be representative of the population. In this paper, I investigate whether individuals periodically interviewed in a longitudinal epidemiological research conducted in Pelotas, Brazil, are affected along relevant dimensions, in particular, education and health. I find only a significant effect on ENEM score.

Validade das informações ocupação e causa básica em declarações de óbito de Botucatu, São Paulo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)