An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

Building energy efficiency for sustainable development in China: challenges and opportunities

Rapid urbanisation in China has resulted in great demands for energy, resources and pressure on the environment. The progress in China's development is considered in the context of energy efficiency in the built environment, including policy, technology and implementation. The key research challenges and opportunities are identified for delivering a low carbon built environment. The barriers include the existing traditional sequential design process, the lack of integrated approaches, and insufficient socio-technical knowledge. A proposed conceptual systemic model of an integrated approach identifies research opportunities. The organisation of research activities should be initiated, operated, and managed in a collaborative way among policy makers, professionals, researchers and stakeholders. More emphasis is needed on integrating social, economic and environmental impacts in the short, medium and long terms. An ideal opportunity exists for China to develop its own expertise, not merely in a technical sense but in terms of vision and intellectual leadership in order to flourish in global collaborations.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

‘Low carbon’ scenarios, roadmaps, transitions and pathways: an overview and discussion

There are a range of studies based in the low carbon arena which use various ‘futures’- based techniques as ways of exploring uncertainties. These techniques range from ‘scenarios’ and ‘roadmaps’ through to ‘transitions’ and ‘pathways’ as well as ‘vision’-based techniques. The overall aim of the paper is therefore to compare and contrast these techniques to develop a simple working typology with the further objective of identifying the implications of this analysis for RETROFIT 2050. Using recent examples of city-based and energy-based studies throughout, the paper compares and contrasts these techniques and finds that the distinctions between them have often been blurred in the field of low carbon. Visions, for example, have been used in both transition theory and futures/Foresight methods, and scenarios have also been used in transition-based studies as well as futures/Foresight studies. Moreover, Foresight techniques which capture expert knowledge and map existing knowledge to develop a set of scenarios and roadmaps which can inform the development of transitions and pathways can not only help potentially overcome any ‘disconnections’ that may exist between the social and the technical lenses in which such future trajectories are mapped, but also promote a strong ‘co-evolutionary’ content.

Simple Question, Complex Answer : Pathways Towards a 50% Decrease in Building Energy Use

Addressing building energy use is a pressing issue for building sector decision makers across Europe. In Sweden, some regions have adopted a target of reducing energy use in buildings by 50% until 2050. However, building codes currently do not support as ambitious objectives as these, and novel approaches to addressing energy use in buildings from a regional perspective are called for. The purpose of this licentiate thesis was to provide a deeper understanding of most relevant issues with regard to energy use in buildings from a broad perspective and to suggest pathways towards reaching the long-term savings objective. Current trends in building sector structure and energy use point to detached houses constructed before 1981 playing a key role in the energy transition, especially in the rural areas of Sweden. In the Swedish county of Dalarna, which was used as a study area in this thesis, these houses account for almost 70% of the residential heating demand. Building energy simulations of eight sample houses from county show that there is considerable techno-economic potential for energy savings in these houses, but not quite enough to reach the 50% savings objective. Two case studies from rural Sweden show that savings well beyond 50% are achievable, both when access to capital and use of high technology are granted and when they are not. However, on a broader scale both direct and indirect rebound effects will have to be expected, which calls for more refined approaches to energy savings. Furthermore, research has shown that the techno-economic potential is in fact never realised, not even in the most well-designed intervention programmes, due to the inherent complexity of human behaviour with respect to energy use. This is not taken account of in neither current nor previous Swedish energy use legislation. Therefore an approach that considers the technical prerequisites, economic aspects and the perspective of the many home owners, based on Community-Based Social Marketing methodology, is suggested as a way forward towards reaching the energy savings target.

Energy efficiency potential in Jamaica: challenges, opportunities and strategies for implementation

Incluye Bibliografía

Renewable energy sources in Latin America and the Caribbean: situation and policy proposals

Includes bibliography

Energy efficiency and mobility: A roadmap towards a greener economy in Latin America and the Caribbean

Much analysis and proposals on sustainable transport policies have been developed around the world, both at government and research institutions. It is clear that no action will provide the single solution and it is imperative to act simultaneously on: i) improvement of technology in vehicles, leading to increased energy efficiency; ii) the change in driver behavior, to use less fuel per kilometer; iii) reducing the distances traveled per vehicle; and iv) a change in the type of travels towards more sustainable modes of transport.In general, the recommendations for energy efficiency in transport are mainly focused on the first two priorities on the list, while the portfolios of policies —instrumental to the needs of the countries— should use trans-sectoral and multi-dimensional approaches, such as public transport planning and land use. In ECLAC, we consider that the time has come to provide Latin American and Caribbean countries with a deeper understanding and a more strategic vision (and adapted to the realities of the region) on these issues; in this sense, we hope that this document will help countries to improve and further expand their portfolios of energy efficiency policies in the transport sector, in order to achieve the ambitious goals of energy efficiency, needed to ensure a sustainable energy future.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

Optical transition radiation used in the diagnostic of low energy and low current electron beams in particle accelerators

Optical transition radiation (OTR) plays an important role in beam diagnostics for high energy particle accelerators. Its linear intensity with beam current is a great advantage as compared to fluorescent screens, which are subject to saturation. Moreover, the measurement of the angular distribution of the emitted radiation enables the determination of many beam parameters in a single observation point. However, few works deals with the application of OTR to monitor low energy beams. In this work we describe the design of an OTR based beam monitor used to measure the transverse beam charge distribution of the 1.9-MeV electron beam of the linac injector of the IFUSP microtron using a standard vision machine camera. The average beam current in pulsed operation mode is of the order of tens of nano-Amps. Low energy and low beam current make OTR observation difficult. To improve sensitivity, the beam incidence angle on the target was chosen to maximize the photon flux in the camera field-of-view. Measurements that assess OTR observation (linearity with beam current, polarization, and spectrum shape) are presented, as well as a typical 1.9-MeV electron beam charge distribution obtained from OTR. Some aspects of emittance measurement using this device are also discussed. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4748519]

Testing the GlaaS algorithm for dose measurements on low- and high-energy photon beams using an amorphous silicon portal imager

The GLAaS algorithm for pretreatment intensity modulation radiation therapy absolute dose verification based on the use of amorphous silicon detectors, as described in Nicolini et al. [G. Nicolini, A. Fogliata, E. Vanetti, A. Clivio, and L. Cozzi, Med. Phys. 33, 2839-2851 (2006)], was tested under a variety of experimental conditions to investigate its robustness, the possibility of using it in different clinics and its performance. GLAaS was therefore tested on a low-energy Varian Clinac (6 MV) equipped with an amorphous silicon Portal Vision PV-aS500 with electronic readout IAS2 and on a high-energy Clinac (6 and 15 MV) equipped with a PV-aS1000 and IAS3 electronics. Tests were performed for three calibration conditions: A: adding buildup on the top of the cassette such that SDD-SSD = d(max) and comparing measurements with corresponding doses computed at d(max), B: without adding any buildup on the top of the cassette and considering only the intrinsic water-equivalent thickness of the electronic portal imaging devices device (0.8 cm), and C: without adding any buildup on the top of the cassette but comparing measurements against doses computed at d(max). This procedure is similar to that usually applied when in vivo dosimetry is performed with solid state diodes without sufficient buildup material. Quantitatively, the gamma index (gamma), as described by Low et al. [D. A. Low, W. B. Harms, S. Mutic, and J. A. Purdy, Med. Phys. 25, 656-660 (1998)], was assessed. The gamma index was computed for a distance to agreement (DTA) of 3 mm. The dose difference deltaD was considered as 2%, 3%, and 4%. As a measure of the quality of results, the fraction of field area with gamma larger than 1 (%FA) was scored. Results over a set of 50 test samples (including fields from head and neck, breast, prostate, anal canal, and brain cases) and from the long-term routine usage, demonstrated the robustness and stability of GLAaS. In general, the mean values of %FA remain below 3% for deltaD equal or larger than 3%, while they are slightly larger for deltaD = 2% with %FA in the range from 3% to 8%. Since its introduction in routine practice, 1453 fields have been verified with GLAaS at the authors' institute (6 MV beam). Using a DTA of 3 mm and a deltaD of 4% the authors obtained %FA = 0.9 +/- 1.1 for the entire data set while, stratifying according to the dose calculation algorithm, they observed: %FA = 0.7 +/- 0.9 for fields computed with the analytical anisotropic algorithm and %FA = 2.4 +/- 1.3 for pencil-beam based fields with a statistically significant difference between the two groups. If data are stratified according to field splitting, they observed %FA = 0.8 +/- 1.0 for split fields and 1.0 +/- 1.2 for nonsplit fields without any significant difference.

Psychological Data from an Exploration of the Rapport / Synchrony Interplay Using Motion Energy Analysis

These data result from an investigation examining the interplay between dyadic rapport and consequential behavior-mirroring. Participants responded to a variety of interpersonally-focused pretest measures prior to their engagement in videotaped interdependent tasks (coded for interactional synchrony using Motion Energy Analysis [17,18]). A post-task evaluation of rapport and other related constructs followed each exchange. Four studies shared these same dependent measures, but asked distinct questions: Study 1 (Ndyad = 38) explored the influence of perceived responsibility and gender-specificity of the task; Study 2 (Ndyad = 51) focused on dyad sex-makeup; Studies 3 (Ndyad = 41) and 4 (Ndyad = 63) examined cognitive load impacts on the interactions. Versions of the data are structured with both individual and dyad as the unit of analysis. Our data possess strong reuse potential for theorists interested in dyadic processes and are especially pertinent to questions about dyad agreement and interpersonal perception / behavior association relationships.

Next Generation of Energy Residential Gateways for Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing

Predictions about electric energy needs, based on current electric energy models, forecast that the global energy consumption on Earth for 2050 will double present rates. Using distributed procedures for control and integration, the expected needs can be halved. Therefore implementation of Smart Grids is necessary. Interaction between final consumers and utilities is a key factor of future Smart Grids. This interaction is aimed to reach efficient and responsible energy consumption. Energy Residential Gateways (ERG) are new in-building devices that will govern the communication between user and utility and will control electric loads. Utilities will offer new services empowering residential customers to lower their electric bill. Some of these services are Smart Metering, Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing. This paper presents a practical development of an ERG for residential buildings.

Clean Coal Technologies Scenario and Evaluation of Present CO2 Dwindling Initiatives to Approach Zero Emission Power Stations By Coal Combustion. Deployment Situation and Evaluation Study

In the present uncertain global context of reaching an equal social stability and steady thriving economy, power demand expected to grow and global electricity generation could nearly double from 2005 to 2030. Fossil fuels will remain a significant contribution on this energy mix up to 2050, with an expected part of around 70% of global and ca. 60% of European electricity generation. Coal will remain a key player. Hence, a direct effect on the considered CO2 emissions business-as-usual scenario is expected, forecasting three times the present CO2 concentration values up to 1,200ppm by the end of this century. Kyoto protocol was the first approach to take global responsibility onto CO2 emissions monitoring and cap targets by 2012 with reference to 1990. Some of principal CO2emitters did not ratify the reduction targets. Although USA and China spur are taking its own actions and parallel reduction measures. More efficient combustion processes comprising less fuel consuming, a significant contribution from the electricity generation sector to a CO2 dwindling concentration levels, might not be sufficient. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies have started to gain more importance from the beginning of the decade, with research and funds coming out to drive its come in useful. After first researching projects and initial scale testing, three principal capture processes came out available today with first figures showing up to 90% CO2 removal by its standard applications in coal fired power stations. Regarding last part of CO2 reduction chain, two options could be considered worthy, reusing (EOR & EGR) and storage. The study evaluates the state of the CO2 capture technology development, availability and investment cost of the different technologies, with few operation cost analysis possible at the time. Main findings and the abatement potential for coal applications are presented. DOE, NETL, MIT, European universities and research institutions, key technology enterprises and utilities, and key technology suppliers are the main sources of this study. A vision of the technology deployment is presented.