The 2030 framework on climate and energy - Getting Europe on the right track? EPC Commentary, 30 January 2014

Climate vs competitiveness? The European Commission published its proposal on the 2030 climate and energy framework on 22 January. Reflective of the current economic climate, it was accompanied by a report on energy prices and the Commission decided not to propose regulation on shale gas but to issue recommendations on environmental standards. The same day also saw the publication of a communication “For a European Industrial Renaissance”. Climate considerations no longer drive the agenda. The enthusiasm of 2007, when the “20/20/20” climate and energy targets were set for 2020, has diminished. The new reality has brought competitiveness to the top of the EU’s priority agenda.

European Energy and Industrial Policy Realigned: Risk or Opportunity for EU Eco-Innovation Strategy? IES Policy Brief Issue 2014/03/February 2014

Summary. Europe’s eco-innovation strategy fuses industrial, energy and environmental policy together in a concept for sustainable economic growth in the 21st century. The latest debate about high energy prices and their impact on energy-intensive industry shows, however, that the emphasis among the three policies has shifted over the years. Some adjustments are therefore necessary in order to reduce evolving inconsistencies. This Policy Brief describes the different dimensions of the EU’s industrial policy, and assesses the options available to policy-makers to increase the competitiveness of energy-intensive sectors without compromising the eco-innovation and sustainability agenda. If several key principles of the European sustainability agenda remain unchanged, strategic development is possible.

Fair Access to Energy Resources, Market Transfers and Climate Change in the WTO

This paper addresses the issues of dual pricing and export restrictions in the energy sector, stressing the comparability of their economic and climate change impacts. It assesses whether WTO disciplines relevant and applicable to such practices are well-equipped to ensure fair access to energy resources. It finds that relevant GATT disciplines are overall deficient in the case of dual pricing and export taxes, while the landscape of WTO-plus obligations generally consisting of a network of narrowly tailored commitments. It discusses possible avenues to address such practices under the ASCM to the extent that they distort domestic energy prices and subsidize consumption of cheap fossil fuels

Combining the wavelet transform and forecasting models to predict gas forward prices

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward energy prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi- layer perceptron, linear regression or GARCH. These techniques are applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the wavelet transform. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Az európai villamosenergia-árak központi szabályozásának hatása a fogyasztói árakra (The impacts of the price regulation on the level of retail electricity prices in Europe)

Az Európai Unión belül az elmúlt időszakban megerősödött a vita arról, vajon a Közösség versenyképességének javításához milyen módon és mértékben járulhat hozzá az ipari és lakossági fogyasztók számára kedvező áron elérhető villamos energia. Az uniós testületek elsődlegesen a verseny feltételeinek további javításában látják a versenyképesség javításának fő eszközét, ám egyesek az aktívabb központi szabályozás mellett érvelnek. A jelenleg alkalmazott európai szabályozási gyakorlat áttekintése, a szabályozási modellek és a piaci árak alakulásának vizsgálata hozzásegíthet, hogy következtetéseket vonjunk le a tagállami gyakorlatok tekintetében, vajon sikeresebb-e a központi ármegállapításon alapuló szabályozói mechanizmus, mint a liberalizált piacmodell. ______ There is a strengthening debate within the European Union in recent years about the impact of the affordable industrial and household electricity prices on the general competitiveness of European economies. While the European Institutions argues for the further liberalization of the energy retail sector, there are others who believe in centralization and price control to achieve lower energy prices. Current paper reviews the regulatory models of the European countries and examines the connection between the regulatory regime and consumer price trends. The analysis can help to answer, whether the bureaucratic central regulation or the liberalized market model seems more successful in supporting the competitiveness goals. Although the current regulatory practice is heterogeneous within the EU member states, there is a clear trend to decrease the role of regulated tariffs in the end-user prices. Our study did not find a general causal relationship between the regulatory regime and the level of consumer electricity prices in a country concerned. However, the quantitative analysis of the industrial and household energy prices by various segments detected significant differences between the regulated and free-market countries. The first group of member states tends to decrease the prices in the low-consuming household segments through cross-financing technics, including increased network tariffs and/or taxes for the high-consuming segments and for industrial consumers. One of the major challenges of the regulatory authorities is to find the proper way of sharing these burdens proportionally with minimizing the market-distorting effects of the cross-subsidization between the different stakeholder groups.

E=MC3 Energy Equals Management's Continued Cost Concerns

E=MC³ Energy Equals Management's Continued Cost Concern, is an essay written by Fritz G. Hagenmeyer, Associate Professor, School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University. In the writing, Hagenmeyer initially tenders: “Energy problems in the hospitality industry can be contained or reduced, yielding elevated profits as a result of applied, quality management principles. The concepts, processes and procedures presented in this article are intended to aid present and future managers to become more effective with a sharpened focus on profitability.” This article is an overview of energy efficiency and the management of such. In an expanding energy consumption market with its escalating costs, energy management has become an ever increasing concern and component of responsible hospitality management, Hagenmeyer will have you know. “In endeavoring to "manage" on a day-to-day basis a functioning hospitality building's energy system, the person in charge must take on the role of Justice with her scales, attempting to balance the often varying comfort needs of guests and occupants with the invariable rising costs of energy utilized to generate and maintain such comfort conditions, since comfort is seen as an integral part of the "service," "product," or "price/value” perception of patrons,” says Hagenmeyer. In contrast to what was thought in the mid point of this century - that energy would be abundant and cheap - the reality has set-in that this is not the case; not by a long shot. The author wants you to be aware that energy costs in buildings are a force to be reckoned with; a major expense to be sure. “Since 1973, "energy-conscious design" has begun to become part of the repertoire of architects, design engineers, and construction companies,” Hagenmeyer states. “For instance, whereas office buildings of the early 1970s might have used 400,000 British Thermal Units (BTUs) per square foot year, new buildings are going up that use 55,000 to 65,000 BTUs per square foot year,” Hagenmeyer, like an incandescent bulb, illuminates you. Hagenmeyer references Robert E. Aulbach’s article - Energy Management – when informing you that the hospitality manager should not become complacent in addressing the energy cost issue, but should and must maintain a diligent focus on the problem. Hagenmeyer also makes reference to the Middle East War and to OPEC, and their influence on energy prices. In closing, Hagenmeyer suggests an - Energy Management Action Plan – which he outlines for you.

Flex cars and the alcohol price

We build a model that incorporates the effect of the innovative ""flex"" car, an automobile that is able to run with either gasoline or alcohol, on the dynamics of fuel prices in Brazil. Our model shows that differences regarding fuel prices will now depend on the proportions of alcohol, gasoline and flex cars in the total stock. Conversely, the demand for each type of car will also depend on the expected future prices of alcohol and gasoline (in addition to the car prices). The model reflects our findings that energy prices are tied in the long run and that causality runs stronger from gasoline to alcohol. The estimated error correction parameter is stable, implying that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium remains unchanged. The latter result is probably due to a still small fraction of flex cars in the total stock (approx. 5%), despite the fact that its sales nearly reached 100% in 2006. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

A trader portfolio optimization of bilateral contracts in electricity retail markets

Electricity markets are systems for effecting the purchase and sale of electricity using supply and demand to set energy prices. Two major market models are often distinguished: pools and bilateral contracts. Pool prices tend to change quickly and variations are usually highly unpredictable. In this way, market participants often enter into bilateral contracts to hedge against pool price volatility. This article addresses the challenge of optimizing the portfolio of clients managed by trader agents. Typically, traders buy energy in day-ahead markets and sell it to a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving three-rate tariffs. Traders sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Estudo e análise das centrais híbridas de energias renováveis

Com o aumento do preço da eletricidade e o fim dos combustíveis fósseis, associados à necessidade de Portugal reduzir a sua dependência energética do exterior, provoca a necessidade urgente de apostar nas energias renováveis. Perante este cenário, e assumindo que o custo da fatura energética, é para as empresas portuguesas um fator cada vez mais determinante para serem competitivas, devido aos aumentos consecutivos da energia nos últimos anos, bem como, a subida do imposto de valor acrescentado (IVA) de 6% para 23%. Outro aspeto importante é a eficiência energética como instrumento para reduzir os consumos de eletricidade. Com estas duas medidas: utilização de energias renováveis e o aumento da eficiência energética, são extremamente importantes para a redução da produção dos gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Consequentemente, as empresas terão de investir na produção da própria energia a partir de fontes renováveis, de modo a proporcionar um desenvolvimento sustentável, associado à redução da fatura energética. Esta dissertação propõe o dimensionamento de um sistema híbrido composto por tecnologia fotovoltaica e eólica, com e sem armazenamento de energia em baterias, adequado para reduzir uma parte dos consumos de uma empresa enquadrada no sector dos plásticos. O dimensionamento deste sistema, foi efetuado com recurso à caracterização dos consumos da empresa através da recolha de dados e leituras no local da instalação. Paralelamente, foi efetuada uma pesquisa em diversos fabricantes, de modo a identificar qual o sistema mais indicado a adotar, considerando painéis fotovoltaicos, turbinas eólicas, inversores e baterias. Com base nos dados recolhidos na empresa e referentes ao potencial eólico e solar para o distrito do Porto, em conjunto com as características técnicas dos equipamentos selecionados, foi delineado o sistema híbrido utilizando para o efeito um software de simulação e otimização de sistemas híbridos, denominado Hybrid Optimization Model for Eletric Renewable (HOMER). São apresentadas várias simulações para as diversas configurações escolhidas e estudos comparativos entre si, com o objetivo de reduzir o consumo de eletricidade da rede. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas duas configurações apenas com tecnologia fotovoltaica, de modo a efetuar uma análise comparativa entre um sistema híbrido e outro apenas com uma fonte renovável. Os resultados apresentados focaram-se no desempenho diário, mensal e anual, bem como, a produção individual de cada tecnologia evidenciada. Por último, procedeu-se ao estudo da viabilidade técnico-económica das configurações.

Measuring the effects of price movements on private consumption

This paper studies how shocks in the prices of Food, Energy and Financial Assets affect private consumption using a VAR Model. Then, the total effects are broken into direct and indirect effects, using the coefficients taken from the previous model. We use quarterly data for the Portuguese economy from the last 20 years. We found that energy prices and financial assets have a strong connection with consumption, suggesting that the economy may be too exposed to shocks in these markets.

Food Security on the island of Ireland: are we sleep walking into a crisis?

IPH has developed a discussion paper on food security on the island. This makes the case that health is and needs to be central to food and agricultural policy. Population health, food systems and agricultural production are intimately linked.  A clear framework on food security is needed in both parts of the island of Ireland and this offers a key opportunity for cooperation. This article has been published in the latest edition of The Journal of Cross Border Studies in Ireland - No 6 launched on 8 March 2011.

Cape Verde - Diagnostic Trade Inttegration study Update - 2013

This Report is an update of the Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, titled Cape Verde’s Insertion into the Global Economy, produced and validated by the Government of Cape Verde in December 2008. Like the previous 2008 study, this Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update provides a critical examination of the major institutional and production constraints that hinder Cape Verde’s ability to capitalize fully on the growth and welfare gains from its integration into the world economy. As a policy report, this study offers a set of priority policies and measures that can be implemented by both the public and private sectors to mitigate and surmount these supply side and institutional constraints. These recommendations are summarized in an Action Matrix. The Report is fruit of the generous support of the multi-donor program the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF). In every crisis there is an opportunity. Four years after the validation of the country’s first Diagnostic Trade Integration Study in 2008, Cape Verde finds itself in a drastically altered external environment. Cape Verde faces a worsened external environment than four years ago, when it was also traversing years of crisis as global food and energy prices escalated. Just as the country was validating its first trade study in late 2008, and celebrating its graduation from the list of Least Developed Countries, the onset of the deepest global recession in recent memory triggered an even worse external situation as the country’s principal source of markets, investments, remittances and aid, the Eurozone, unraveled economically and politically. As the Eurozone crisis spread, it was Cape Verde’s misfortune that the crisis contaminated precisely its biggest Eurozone partners and donors, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. For such a highly dependent and exposed economy like that of Cape Verde, the deteriorating external sector has had a substantial negative impact on its macroeconomic performance. At the time of the validation workshop and graduation in 2008, no one could have foreseen or predicted the severity of the global crisis that followed. Despite traversing these years of adversity and external shocks, and suffering palpable setbacks, Cape Verde’s economy had proven surprisingly resilient, especially its principal sector, tourism. To its great credit, the country’s economic fundamentals are solid, and have been carefully and prudently managed over the years. For this reason alone, the country has thus far weathered the global and Eurozone crisis. Yet the near and medium term future remains uncertain. The country’s margin for maneuver has narrowed, its options far more limited, and hard choices lie ahead. Thus, there is no better time than now to analyze Cape Verde’s position in the global economy, and to examine the many challenges and opportunities it faces. The first diagnostic trade study outlined an ambitious agenda and set of policy strategies to enhance Cape Verde’s participation in the global economy. Written prior to the global crisis, the study did not, and could not, anticipate the scope and depth of the subsequent global and Eurozone crises. A few short months before the validation of the first DTIS Cape Verde joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has spent these four years adjusting to this status and implementing its commitments. At the same time, the country seeks greater economic integration with the European Union. Since 2008 the government has been investing heavily in the country’s economic infrastructure, focusing especially on fostering transformation in key sectors like agriculture, fisheries, tourism and creative industries. For these and many other reasons, it is both timely and urgent to review the road traveled since 2008. It is an opportune moment to reassess the country’s options, to rethink strategies, and to chart a new way forward that it is practical, implementable, and that builds on the country’s competitive advantages and current successes.

Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels, June 2011

This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Implantación de microcogeneración en el equipamiento municipal : "Centro de Historia de Zaragoza"

A raíz de la evolución del precio de la energía y de las medidas adoptadas a nivel mundial para el llamado “desarrollo sostenible”, la legislación europea ha liderado las correcciones a efectuar en los procesos protagonistas del consumo de recursos y de contaminación del medio ambiente. En la última década el proceso viene acelerándose para cumplir con los objetivos marcados, amparándose en unas ya consolidadas estadísticas sobre las repercusiones prácticas de cada una de las iniciativas proyectadas. Una de las tecnologías a emplear es la cogeneración, es decir, la producción simultánea de calor y electricidad. A diferencia de otras soluciones más ambiciosas, y por tanto con mayor incertidumbre en su aplicación práctica, la cogeneración es una respuesta ya madura y viable, directamente aplicable a industrias y con un claro apoyo institucional. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es demostrar mediante un estudio técnico – económico, la viabilidad de la solución planteada en este tipo de edificios, mediante la aportación de datos reales y contrastados. Así como establecer los parámetros e indicadores de medición que permitan elegir dicha tecnología como la solución óptima para el ahorro y eficiencia económica en su sector de aplicación. Entre las conclusiones más destacadas de este proyecto están los beneficios que aporta tanto al usuario del sistema como al conjunto de la sociedad, siendo este último aspecto fundamental en su financiación y subvención. Por otra parte, son instalaciones desconocidas en ciertos edificios por lo que este trabajo debe contribuir a su desarrollo y adopción por parte de las empresas de servicios energéticos.