Valuing emerging markets companies : new approaches to determine the effective exposure to country risk

The aim of this paper is to propose new methods to measure the effective exposure to country risk of emerging-market companies. Starting from Damodaran (2003), we propose seven new approaches and a revised CAPM for emerging markets companies. The “Prospective Lambda” represents the effective exposure according to analysts’ estimates of growth. The “Relative Lambda” relies on the firm value estimated through a relative valuation. The “Retrospective Lambda” represents the ex-post effective exposure to country risk. The “Company Effective Risk Premium” is a generalization of the Retrospective Lambda, and expresses the premium effectively requested by investors to invest in that specific company in the past year. “The Actual Lambda” and the “Company Actual Risk Premium” represent, respectively, the actual exposure to country risk of a company and the actual premium requested by investors to invest in that specific company. The “Industry Lambda” reflects the median exposure to country risk of the industry in which the company belongs. We tested our new measures of exposure to country risk on the Latin American emerging markets companies according to the classification of the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index. The results confirm that the new approaches can be effectively applied by financial analysts to stable-growth companies that operate in emerging markets and to mature markets companies that operate in emerging markets, providing with a more reliable estimate of both the premium effectively requested by investors in the past and the actual premium. Applying the new approaches, the cost of equity reflects the effective exposure of a company to country risk without being over- or underestimated, as is the case with other existing approaches.

Bank lending to emerging markets: crossing the border

Includes bibliography

Proposals for curbing the boom-bust cycle in the supply of capital to emerging markets

Includes bibliography

Financial regulation and supervision in emerging markets: the experience of Latin America since the Tequila crisis

Includes bibliography

Financial regulation and supervision in emerging markets: the experience of Latin America since the Tequila crisis

Includes bibliography

Financial regulation and supervision in emerging markets: the experience of Latin America since the Tequila crisis

Includes bibliography

Determinants and Effects of Maturity Mismatches in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data

Despite the extensive work on currency mismatches, research on the determinants and effects of maturity mismatches is scarce. In this paper I show that emerging market maturity mismatches are negatively affected by capital inflows and price volatilities. Furthermore, I find that banks with low maturity mismatches are more profitable during crisis periods but less profitable otherwise. The later result implies that banks face a tradeoff between higher returns and risk, hence channeling short term capital into long term loans is caused by cronyism and implicit guarantees rather than the depth of the financial market. The positive relationship between maturity mismatches and price volatility, on the other hand, shows that the banks of countries with high exchange rate and interest rate volatilities can not, or choose not to hedge themselves. These results follow from a panel regression on a data set I constructed by merging bank level data with aggregate data. This is advantageous over traditional studies which focus only on aggregate data.

Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature -- flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's foreign currency leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible regimes.

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

Emerging Markets' Euro Nemesis. CEPS Commentary, 9 September 2013

In this new commentary, CEPS Director Daniel Gros argues that the weakening of European demand triggered by austerity is the real cause behind the recent deterioration of emerging markets’ current accounts. As a consequence, unless the US resumes its role as consumer of last resort, the latest bout of financial-market jitters will weaken the global economy again.

Big emerging markets, ASEAN.

Mode of access: Internet.

Brand extensions in emerging markets:theory development and testing in China

Brand extensions are increasingly used by multinational corporations in emerging markets such as China. However, understanding how consumers in the emerging markets evaluate brand extensions is hampered by a lack of research in the emerging markets contexts. To address the knowledge void, we built on an established brand extension evaluation framework in the West, namely Aaker and Keller (1990)1. Aaker , D. A. and Keller , K. L. 1990 . Consumer evaluations of brand extensions . Journal of Marketing , 54 ( 1 ) : 27 – 41 . [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references, and extended the model by incorporating two new factors: perceived fit based on brand image consistency and competition intensity in the brand extension category. The additions of two factors are made in recognition of the uniqueness of the considerations of consumers in the emerging markets in their brand extension evaluations. The extended model was tested by an empirical experiment using consumers in China. The results partly validated the Aaker and Keller model, and evidence that both newly added factors were significant in influencing consumers' evaluation of brand extensions was also found. More important, one new factor proposed, namely, consumer-perceived fit based on brand image consistency, was found to be more significant than all the factors in Aaker and Keller's original model, suggesting that the Aaker and Keller model may be limited in explaining how consumers in the emerging markets evaluate brand extensions. Further research implications and limitations are discussed in the paper.

Evaluating service quality and customer satisfaction evaluation in an emerging markets

Developing economies offer tremendous potential for future growth and organizations appreciating these consumers’ requirements stand to reap considerable returns. However, compared with more developed economies published consumer studies are few. In particular, there is a dearth of service quality research and hardly any from Africa. Furthermore, the little available research tends to apply Western methodologies, which may not be entirely appropriate. This research investigates East African consumer perceptions of retail banking using an approach that takes account of the research context. Qualitative research was undertaken to define the relevant service attributes. Performance along these was then investigated through a survey with over 2000 respondents. Principal component analysis identifies 13 core service dimensions and multinomial logistic regression reveals which are the key drivers of customer satisfaction. Comparison of the results with studies from other regions confirms that established standardized research instruments are likely to miss or under-represent service attributes important in developing countries.