Causation, counterfactuals and competitive advantage

Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.

Causation, counterfactuals and competitive advantage

Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.

Thermal Efficiency of LPG and PNG-fired burners: Experimental and numerical studies

In the present work, the thermal efficiency of a conventional domestic burner is studied both experimentally and numerically for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and piped natural gas (PNG) fuels. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling of the steady-state flow, combustion and heat transfer to the vessel is reported for the first time in such burners. Based on the insights from the CFD model concerning the flow and heat transfer, design modifications in the form of a circular insert and a radiant sheet are proposed which are observed to increase thermal efficiency for LPG. For PNG, predictions showed that loading height was a much more important factor affecting efficiency than these design modifications and an optimal loading height could be identified. Experiments confirm these trends by showing an improvement in burner thermal efficiency of 2.5% for LPG with the modified design, and 10% for PNG with the optimal loading height, demonstrating that the CFD modeling approach developed in the present work is a useful tool to study domestic burners. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the neural mechanisms supporting the implementation of cognitive control in human decision making

Humans are particularly adept at modifying their behavior in accordance with changing environmental demands. Through various mechanisms of cognitive control, individuals are able to tailor actions to fit complex short- and long-term goals. The research described in this thesis uses functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize the neural correlates of cognitive control at two levels of complexity: response inhibition and self-control in intertemporal choice. First, we examined changes in neural response associated with increased experience and skill in response inhibition; successful response inhibition was associated with decreased neural response over time in the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, a region widely implicated in cognitive control, providing evidence for increased neural efficiency with learned automaticity. We also examined a more abstract form of cognitive control using intertemporal choice. In two experiments, we identified putative neural substrates for individual differences in temporal discounting, or the tendency to prefer immediate to delayed rewards. Using dynamic causal models, we characterized the neural circuit between ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area involved in valuation, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in self-control in intertemporal and dietary choice, and found that connectivity from dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to ventromedial prefrontal cortex increases at the time of choice, particularly when delayed rewards are chosen. Moreover, estimates of the strength of connectivity predicted out-of-sample individual rates of temporal discounting, suggesting a neurocomputational mechanism for variation in the ability to delay gratification. Next, we interrogated the hypothesis that individual differences in temporal discounting are in part explained by the ability to imagine future reward outcomes. Using a novel paradigm, we imaged neural response during the imagining of primary rewards, and identified negative correlations between activity in regions associated the processing of both real and imagined rewards (lateral orbitofrontal cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, respectively) and the individual temporal discounting parameters estimated in the previous experiment. These data suggest that individuals who are better able to represent reward outcomes neurally are less susceptible to temporal discounting. Together, these findings provide further insight into role of the prefrontal cortex in implementing cognitive control, and propose neurobiological substrates for individual variation.

Landscape Genetics for the Empirical Assessment of Resistance Surfaces: The European Pine Marten (Martes martes) as a Target-Species of a Regional Ecological Network

Coherent ecological networks (EN) composed of core areas linked by ecological corridors are being developed worldwide with the goal of promoting landscape connectivity and biodiversity conservation. However, empirical assessment of the performance of EN designs is critical to evaluate the utility of these networks to mitigate effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Landscape genetics provides a particularly valuable framework to address the question of functional connectivity by providing a direct means to investigate the effects of landscape structure on gene flow. The goals of this study are (1) to evaluate the landscape features that drive gene flow of an EN target species (European pine marten), and (2) evaluate the optimality of a regional EN design in providing connectivity for this species within the Basque Country (North Spain). Using partial Mantel tests in a reciprocal causal modeling framework we competed 59 alternative models, including isolation by distance and the regional EN. Our analysis indicated that the regional EN was among the most supported resistance models for the pine marten, but was not the best supported model. Gene flow of pine marten in northern Spain is facilitated by natural vegetation, and is resisted by anthropogenic landcover types and roads. Our results suggest that the regional EN design being implemented in the Basque Country will effectively facilitate gene flow of forest dwelling species at regional scale.

Análise estática e dinâmica de lajes nervuradas de concreto armado.

Nesta dissertação desenvolve-se um estudo sobre o comportamento estrutural de lajes nervuradas de concreto armado, tendo em mente o emprego destas em sistemas estruturais na engenharia civil, de forma viável sob o ponto de vista técnico e econômico. No cenário atual, diversos tipos de sistemas estruturais têm sido desenvolvidos, dentre estes as lajes nervuradas de concreto armado com base no sistema Reduzcon. Essas lajes nervuradas têm como principais características o baixo consumo de material e o peso próprio bastante reduzido. Este sistema utiliza cubas cilíndricas invertidas metálicas denominadas BRC (Barrote Redutor de Concreto), que suportam o concreto da laje. Assim sendo, este trabalho de pesquisa apresenta um estudo acerca da resposta estática e dinâmica do sistema estrutural em questão, em relação aos deslocamentos translacionais verticais e tensões; e, bem como, da resposta dinâmica do sistema sob o ponto de vista de conforto humano. Ênfase especial é dada às atividades humanas rítmicas, com base no emprego de modelos de carregamento que representem as ações inerentes à ginástica aeróbica. A definição das ações dinâmicas atuantes sobre os modelos estruturais foi feita com base em resultados de testes experimentais que levam em conta os efeitos de multidão. A análise numérica fundamenta-se na modelagem computacional do sistema, através do Método dos Elementos Finitos (MEF), de forma a representar apropriadamente o comportamento estrutural das lajes Reduzcon. São empregadas técnicas usuais de discretização, por meio do programa ANSYS. As vigas de bordo, nervuras e a laje de concreto são simuladas por elementos finitos sólidos tridimensionais.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

开发早期油藏动态地质模型与油藏工程优化研究——以埕岛油田馆上段油藏为例

In order to developing reservoir of Upper of Ng at high-speed and high-efficient in Chengdao oilfield which is located in the bally shallow sea, the paper builds up a series of theory and means predicting and descripting reservoir in earlier period of oilfield development. There are some conclusions as follows. 1. It is the first time to form a series of technique of fine geological modeling of the channel-sandy reservoir by means of mainly seismic methods. These technique include the logging restriction seismic inversion, the whole three dimension seismic interpretation, seismic properties analysis and so on which are used to the 3-dimension distributing prediction of sandy body, structure and properties of the channel reservoir by a lot of the seismic information and a small quantity of the drilling and the logging information in the earlier stage of the oil-field development. It is the first time that these methods applied to production and the high-speed development of the shallow sea oilfield. The prediction sandy body was modified by the data of new drilling, the new reservoir prediction thinking of traced inversion is built. The applied effect of the technique was very well, according to approximately 200 wells belonging to 30 well groups in Chengdao oilfield, the drilling succeeded rate of the predicting sandy body reached 100%, the error total thickness only was 8%. 2. The author advanced the thinking and methods of the forecasting residual-oil prediction at the earlier stage of production. Based on well data and seismic data, correlation of sediment units was correlated by cycle-correlation and classification control methods, and the normalization and finely interpretation of the well logging and sedimentation micro-facies were acquired. On the region of poor well, using the logging restriction inversion technique and regarding finished drilling production well as the new restriction condition, the sand body distributing and its property were predicted again and derived 3-dimension pool geologic model including structure, reservoir, fluid, reservoir engineering parameter and producing dynamic etc. According to the reservoir geologic model, the reservoir engineering design was optimized, the tracking simulation of the reservoir numerical simulation was done by means of the dynamic data (pressure, yield and water content) of development well, the production rule and oil-water distributing rule was traced, the distributing of the remaining oil was predicted and controlled. The dynamic reservoir modeling method in metaphase of development was taken out. Based on the new drilling data, the static reservoir geologic model was momentarily modified, the research of the flow units was brought up including identifying flow units, evaluating flow units capability and establishing the fine flow units model; according to the dynamic data of production and well testing data, the dynamic tracing reservoir description was realized through the constant modification of the reservoir geologic model restricted these dynamic data by the theory of well testing and the reservoir numerical simulation. It was built the dynamic tracing reservoir model, which was used to track survey of the remaining oil on earlier period. The reservoir engineering tracking analysis technique on shallow sea oilfield was founded. After renewing the structure history since tertiary in Chengdao area by the balance section technique and estimating the activity character of the Chengbei fault by the sealing fault analysis technique, the meandering stream sediment pattern of the Upper of Ng was founded in which the meandering border was the uppermost reservoir unit. Based on the specialty of the lower rock component maturity and the structure maturity, the author founded 3 kinds of pore structure pattern in the Guanshang member of Chengdao oil-field in which the storing space mainly was primary (genetic) inter-granular pore, little was secondary solution pore and the inter-crystal pore tiny pore, and the type of throat mainly distributed as the slice shape and the contract neck shape. The positive rhythmic was briefly type included the simple positive rhythm, the complex positive rhythm and the compound rhythm. Interbed mainly is mudstone widely, the physical properties and the calcite interbed distribute localized. 5. The author synthetically analyzed the influence action of the micro-heterogeneity, the macro-heterogeneity and the structure heterogeneity to the oilfield water flood development. The efficiency of water flood is well in tiny structure of convex type or even type at top and bottom in which the water breakthrough of oil well is soon at the high part of structure when inject at the low part of structure, and the efficiency of water flood is poor in tiny structure of concave type at top and bottom. The remaining oil was controlled by sedimentary facies; the water flooding efficiency is well in the border or channel bar and is bad in the floodplain or the levee. The separation and inter layer have a little influence to the non-obvious positive rhythm reservoir, in which the remaining oil commonly locate within the 1-3 meter of the lower part of the separation and inter layer with lower water flooding efficiency.

视觉通路在汉字组块破解过程中的有效连接

The present study used Dynamical Causal Modeling (DCM) to reveal the influence of difficult to decompose Chinese characters on the effective connectivity of “where” and “what” visual stream。 Chunk decomposition is to decompose the familiar items to their components and then to make up new items with the decomposed components。 Some previous studies with eye movements and brain image had revealed that the chunk decomposition was involved visual-spatial information process, and suggested that “what” and “where” visual streams contributed to the course of chunk decomposition。 However, how they worked to complete the chunk decomposition task is still unknown。 The present study has two factors, familiarity and tightness of the spatial structures, each with 2 levels: real words vs. pseudowords and tight chunks vs. loose chunks。 The results indicates that in the loose conditions, familiarity increases the effective connectivity of “where ” stream, while in the pseudowords conditions, tightness of the spatial structures increases the effective connectivity of both “where” and “what” streams, and familiarity and tightness combined to increase not only both the “what” and “where” streams, but also the effective connectivity from the inferior temporal gyrus to the superior parietal lobule.

Optimização energética de um sistema de climatização industrial

O desenvolvimento deste trabalho teve como objectivo a optimização de um sistema de climatização industrial, constituído por quatro centrais de climatização adiabáticas, que apresentam limitações de capacidade de arrefecimento, controlo e eficiência. Inicialmente foi necessária a pesquisa bibliográfica e recolha de informação relativa à indústria têxtil e ao processo de arrefecimento evaporativo. Numa fase posterior foram recolhidos e analisados os diversos dados essenciais à compreensão do binómio edifício/sistema de climatização, para a obtenção de possíveis hipóteses de optimização. Da fase de recolha de informações e dados, destaca-se, também, a realização de análises à qualidade do ar interior (QAI). As optimizações seleccionadas como passíveis de implementação, foram estudadas e analisadas com o auxílio do software de simulação energética dinâmica DesignBuilder e os resultados obtidos foram devidamente trabalhados e ajustados de modo a permitir uma assimilação amigável e de fácil interpretação das suas vantagens e desvantagens, tendo ainda sido objecto de estudo de viabilidade económica. A optimização proposta reflecte uma melhoria substancial das condições interiores ao nível da temperatura e humidade relativa, resultando, ainda assim, numa redução de consumos energéticos na ordem dos 23 % (490.337 kWh), isto é, uma poupança anual de 42.169 € aos custos de exploração e com um período de retorno de 1 ano e 11 meses.

Experimental Evaluation of the Influence of Human-Structure Interaction for Vibration Serviceability

The effects of human-structure interaction on the dynamic performance of occupied structures have long been observed. The inclusion of the effects of human-structure interaction is important to ensure that the dynamic response of a structure is not overestimated. Previous observations, both in service and in the laboratory, have yielded results indicating that the effects are dependent on the natural frequency of the structure, the posture of the occupants, and the mass ratio of the occupants to the structure. These results are noteworthy, but are limited in their application,because the data are sparse and are only pertinent to a specific set of characteristics identified in a given study. To examine these characteristics simultaneously and consistently, an experimental test structure was designed with variable properties to replicate a variety of configurations within a controlled setting focusing on the effects of passive occupants. Experimental modal analysis techniques were employed to both the empty and occupied conditions of the structure and the dynamic properties associated with each condition were compared. Results similar to previous investigations were observed, including both an increase and a decrease in natural frequency of the occupied structure with respect to the empty structure, as well as the identification of a second mode of vibration. The damping of the combined system was higher for all configurations. Overall, this study provides a broad data set representing a wide array of configurations. The experimental results of this study were used to assess current recommendations for the dynamic properties of a crowd to analytically predict the effects of human-structure interaction. The experimental results were used to select a set of properties for passive, standing occupants and develop a new model that can more accurately represent the behavior of the human-structure system as experimentally measured in this study.

Altered directed functional connectivity in temporal lobe epilepsy in the absence of interictal spikes: A high density EEG study.

OBJECTIVE In patients with epilepsy, seizure relapse and behavioral impairments can be observed despite the absence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). Therefore, the characterization of pathologic networks when IEDs are not present could have an important clinical value. Using Granger-causal modeling, we investigated whether directed functional connectivity was altered in electroencephalography (EEG) epochs free of IED in left and right temporal lobe epilepsy (LTLE and RTLE) compared to healthy controls. METHODS Twenty LTLE, 20 RTLE, and 20 healthy controls underwent a resting-state high-density EEG recording. Source activity was obtained for 82 regions of interest (ROIs) using an individual head model and a distributed linear inverse solution. Granger-causal modeling was applied to the source signals of all ROIs. The directed functional connectivity results were compared between groups and correlated with clinical parameters (duration of the disease, age of onset, age, and learning and mood impairments). RESULTS We found that: (1) patients had significantly reduced connectivity from regions concordant with the default-mode network; (2) there was a different network pattern in patients versus controls: the strongest connections arose from the ipsilateral hippocampus in patients and from the posterior cingulate cortex in controls; (3) longer disease duration was associated with lower driving from contralateral and ipsilateral mediolimbic regions in RTLE; (4) aging was associated with a lower driving from regions in or close to the piriform cortex only in patients; and (5) outflow from the anterior cingulate cortex was lower in patients with learning deficits or depression compared to patients without impairments and to controls. SIGNIFICANCE Resting-state network reorganization in the absence of IEDs strengthens the view of chronic and progressive network changes in TLE. These resting-state connectivity alterations could constitute an important biomarker of TLE, and hold promise for using EEG recordings without IEDs for diagnosis or prognosis of this disorder.

Remote Effects of Hippocampal Sclerosis on Effective Connectivity during Working Memory Encoding: A Case of Connectional Diaschisis?

Accumulating evidence suggests a role for the medial temporal lobe (MTL) in working memory (WM). However, little is known concerning its functional interactions with other cortical regions in the distributed neural network subserving WM. To reveal these, we availed of subjects with MTL damage and characterized changes in effective connectivity while subjects engaged in WM task. Specifically, we compared dynamic causal models, extracted from magnetoencephalographic recordings during verbal WM encoding, in temporal lobe epilepsy patients (with left hippocampal sclerosis) and controls. Bayesian model comparison indicated that the best model (across subjects) evidenced bilateral, forward, and backward connections, coupling inferior temporal cortex (ITC), inferior frontal cortex (IFC), and MTL. MTL damage weakened backward connections from left MTL to left ITC, a decrease accompanied by strengthening of (bidirectional) connections between IFC and MTL in the contralesional hemisphere. These findings provide novel evidence concerning functional interactions between nodes of this fundamental cognitive network and sheds light on how these interactions are modified as a result of focal damage to MTL. The findings highlight that a reduced (top-down) influence of the MTL on ipsilateral language regions is accompanied by enhanced reciprocal coupling in the undamaged hemisphere providing a first demonstration of “connectional diaschisis.”

Response-based segmentation using Finite Mixture Partial Least Squares: theoretical foundations and an application to American Customer Satisfaction Index Data

When applying multivariate analysis techniques in information systems and social science disciplines, such as management information systems (MIS) and marketing, the assumption that the empirical data originate from a single homogeneous population is often unrealistic. When applying a causal modeling approach, such as partial least squares (PLS) path modeling, segmentation is a key issue in coping with the problem of heterogeneity in estimated cause-and-effect relationships. This chapter presents a new PLS path modeling approach which classifies units on the basis of the heterogeneity of the estimates in the inner model. If unobserved heterogeneity significantly affects the estimated path model relationships on the aggregate data level, the methodology will allow homogenous groups of observations to be created that exhibit distinctive path model estimates. The approach will, thus, provide differentiated analytical outcomes that permit more precise interpretations of each segment formed. An application on a large data set in an example of the American customer satisfaction index (ACSI) substantiates the methodology’s effectiveness in evaluating PLS path modeling results.

Três alternativas estocásticas para modelar morbimortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares via variáveis atmosféricas

Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children and elderly population which live in São Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in the Sé region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in environmental planning and public health policies.