Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generation and analysis of drought stressed subtracted expressed sequence tags from safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.)

Drought is the most crucial environmental factor that limits productivity of many crop plants. Exploring novel genes and gene combinations is of primary importance in plant drought tolerance research. Stress tolerant genotypes/species are known to express novel stress responsive genes with unique functional significance. Hence, identification and characterization of stress responsive genes from these tolerant species might be a reliable option to engineer the drought tolerance. Safflower has been found to be a relatively drought tolerant crop and thus, it has been the choice of study to characterize the genes expressed under drought stress. In the present study, we have evaluated differential drought tolerance of two cultivars of safflower namely, A1 and Nira using selective physiological marker traits and we have identified cultivar A1 as relatively drought tolerant. To identify the drought responsive genes, we have constructed a stress subtracted cDNA library from cultivar A1 following subtractive hybridization. Analysis of similar to 1,300 cDNA clones resulted in the identification of 667 unique drought responsive ESTs. Protein homology search revealed that 521 (78 %) out of 667 ESTs showed significant similarity to known sequences in the database and majority of them previously identified as drought stress-related genes and were found to be involved in a variety of cellular functions ranging from stress perception to cellular protection. Remaining 146 (22 %) ESTs were not homologous to known sequences in the database and therefore, they were considered to be unique and novel drought responsive genes of safflower. Since safflower is a stress-adapted oil-seed crop this observation has great relevance. In addition, to validate the differential expression of the identified genes, expression profiles of selected clones were analyzed using dot blot (reverse northern), and northern blot analysis. We showed that these clones were differentially expressed under different abiotic stress conditions. The implications of the analyzed genes in abiotic stress tolerance are discussed in our study.

Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

The Costs of Drought: the Exceptional 2007-2008 Case of Barcelona

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River Ure: fisheries drought report 1996

Yorkshire Water Services (YWS) are currently granted a Time Limited Licence (TLL) for abstraction at Kilgram Bridge which is due for renewal in 1999. The Environment. Agency requires information on fish populations with regards to drought conditions and any possible effects that abstraction may have when considering licence renewal. In' order to evaluate any effects of drought and abstraction a three year study was instigated to examine fish populations. Surveys were conducted at nine main River Ure sites and two tributaries in which the triennial rolling programme formed the basis of site selection. Multi-method sampling techniques were carried out at several sites in order to evaluate capture efficiency. High densities of brown trout juveniles were observed in the tributaries with an indication that fish had become crowded as a result of low flows. Recruitment of brown trout in the tributaries was not directly related to flow levels in the main R. Ure. However, it is concluded that salmonids are at risk during drought flows and high temperatures from increased susceptibility to disease, predation, poor water quality and the direct lethal effect of high temperatures in shallow water.

River Ouse: fisheries drought report 1996

The basis for undertaking this study was to examine factors and potential impacts affecting fish and fishing in relation to low flow drought conditions and what other impacts may arise as a result of further reduced flows resulting from abstraction. The study formed the basis of a three year project to concentrate on effects relating to potable water abstractions at Moor Monkton by YWS. To fully evaluate the possible effects on fisheries the study set out to encompass fish population surveys from fry to adult stock, analysis of angler catch data, reports from anglers and river reports from Environment Agency Fisheries staff. In order to evaluate any effects of drought and abstraction a three year study was instigated to examine fish populations. Fish population surveys were conducted at six sites in which the triennial rolling programme formed the basis of site selection. Multi-method sampling techniques were carried out at several sites in order to evaluate capture efficiency. Roach were prolific above the weir at Linton-on-Ouse, with gudgeon, perch and small bream also well represented. Roach dominated catches on the R.Ouse below Linton, with perch and bleak also relatively abundant. Low flows were not thought to be directly correlated to successful recruitment of coarse fish, rather the associated high temperatures during drought conditions showing a strong positive effect with most species exhibiting growth rates above their long-term average. At this stage in the study there are no clear indications that the drought has caused any deleterious effects to coarse fish populations or marked changes in species composition, with evidence of good recruitment by several species, indicating that the higher temperatures have generally been beneficial to recruitment. However, the indication that dace did not benefit as well as other coarse fish under these conditions may suggest some species are affected more than others. The successful strong recruitment of most coarse fish suggests that, in future, fisheries will be supported by the 1995 year-class.

Environmental effects of drought and abstractions of River Wharfe fisheries, summer 1997

This investigation was carried out to provide information on fish stocks and angling activity during 1997 in relation to the drought and, in particular, flows as influenced by Time Limited Licences. These abstractions will be for review in 1999. This report extends and updates the data presented for 1996. Fish population surveys (including eels) were undertaken on the main river and selected tributaries. Angler caught brown trout were examined, angler catch data have been reviewed, and observations by Environment Agency fisheries staff collated. It appeared that in River Wharfe both the fish populations and individual fish appeared to be in good condition and limited changes had occurred since the 1996 survey.

Environmental effects of drought and abstractions of River Ouse fisheries, summer 1997

This survey was the second year of a three year study to examine fish populations in relation to low flows, drought and abstraction in the River Ouse. To fully evaluate the possible effects on fisheries the study set out to encompass fish population surveys from fry to adult stock, analysis of angler catch data, reports from anglers and river reports from Environment Agency Fisheries staff.

A report on the strategic fisheries stock assessment survey of the River Winster 1995 together with a coarse fish survey in 1994 and reference to the 1995 drought

This is the report on the strategic fisheries stock assessment survey of the River Winster 1995 together with a coarse fish survey in 1994 and reference to the 1995 drought, produced by the Environment Agency North West in 1996. Salmonid production within the Winster catchment was dominated by trout although good densities of salmon juveniles were found on some main river sites. Despite suffering drought conditions for much of 1995, only salmon fry production appeared to have been affected. Coarse fish populations once found in the lower reaches of the Winster appear to have declined to very low levels with no fish sampled. This may be partly due to broken tidal gates allowing saline intrusion. It seems that the lower river was suited to the development of a recreational coarse fishery, now that the gates have been repaired. This report completes the strategic stock assessment surveys planned for the period 1992-1995. It represents the last major catchment that was surveyed to determine the current status of fisheries in the South and South West Cumbria areas.

Reconstructed drought history, north-central Great Basin, 1600-1982 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tree-ring chronologies, developed from cores from Pinyon pines growing on climatically sensitive sites in the north-central Great Basin, have been used to reconstruct precipitation and drought histories of the area from A.D. 1600 to 1982. Analysis of these hydrologic time series helps to place current climatic conditions into the perspective of the past 383 years (since 1600). ... The years 1934 and 1959 were the first and fourth driest while 1934 had the lowest July Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of the reconstructed records. Nevertheless, the decade of the 1930's is only the seventh driest since 1600; the decade 1953-1962 ranks as the second driest. The driest non-overlapping decade since 1600 was 1856-1865. Interestingly, the second wettest decade was 1932-1941. An examination of 30-year mean precipitation data shows that the driest 30-year period was 1871-1900; 1931-1960 ranks as the fourth driest. The current 30-year period (1951-1980) ranks twelfth.

Climatic factors associated with phytoplankton community succession during and after the 1977 drought for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary [abstract]

Principal coordinates analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to determine the environmental factors associated with the decline in phytoplankton production during and after the 1977 drought for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary. Physical, chemical and biological data were collected semimonthly or monthly during the spring-summer between 1973 and 1982 from 15 sampling sites located throughout the Bay-Delta. A decline in phytoplankton community diversity and density during the 1977 drought and subsequent years (1978 through 1981) was described using principal coordinates analysis. The best multiple regression which described the changes in phytoplankton community succession contained the variables water temperature, wind velocity and ortho-phosphate concentration. Together these variables accounted for 61 percent of the variation in the phytoplankton community among years described by principal coordinates analysis. An increase in water temperature, wind velocity and ortho-phosphate concentration within the Bay-Delta, beginning in June 1976 and continuing through 1981, was demonstrated using weighted moving averages. From the strong association between phytoplankton community succession and climatic variables it was hypothesized that the decline in phytoplankton production during and after the 1977 drought was associated with climatic changes within the northeast Pacific.

Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.