珠江口盆地流花11-1油田储层非均质性及流体分布规律研究

In order to discover the distribution law of the remaining oil, the paper focuses on the quantitative characterization of the reservoir heterogeneity and the distribution law of the fluid barrier and interbed, based on fine geological study of the reservoir in Liuhuall-1 oil field. The refined quantitative reservoir geological model has been established by means of the study of core analysis, logging evaluation on vertical well and parallel well, and seismic interpretation and prediction. Utilizing a comprehensive technology combining dynamic data with static data, the distribution characteristics, formation condition and controlling factors of remaining oil in Liuhuall-1 oil field have been illustrated. The study plays an important role in the enrichment regions of the remaining oil and gives scientific direction for the next development of the remaining oil. Several achievements have been obtained as follows: l.On the basis of the study of reservoir division and correlation,eight lithohorizons (layer A, B_1, B_2, B_3, C, D, E, and F) from the top to the bottom of the reservoir are discriminated. The reef facies is subdivided into reef-core facies, fore-reef facies and backreef facies. These three subfacies are further subdivided into five microfacies: coral algal limestone, coralgal micrite, coral algal clastic limestone, bioclastic limestone and foraminiferal limestone. In order to illustrate the distribution law of remaining oil in high watercut period, the stratigraphic structure model and sedimentary model are reconstructed. 2.1n order to research intra-layer, inter-layer and plane reservoir heterogeneity, a new method to characterize reservoir heterogeneity by using IRH (Index of Reservoir Heterogeneity) is introduced. The result indicates that reservoir heterogeneity is medium in layer B_1 and B_3, hard in layer A, B_2, C, E, poor in layer D. 3.Based on the study of the distribution law of fluid barrier and interbed, the effect of fluid battier and interbed on fluid seepage is revealed. Fluid barrier and interbed is abundant in layer A, which control the distribution of crude oil in reservoir. Fluid barrier and interbed is abundant relatively in layer B_2,C and E, which control the spill movement of the bottom water. Layer B_1, B_3 and D tend to be waterflooded due to fluid barrier and interbed is poor. 4.Based on the analysis of reservoir heterogeneity, fluid barrier and interbed and the distribution of bottom water, four contributing regions are discovered. The main lies on the north of well LH11-1A. Two minors lie on the east of well LH11-1-3 and between well LH11-1-3 and well LH11-1-5. The last one lies in layer E in which the interbed is discontinuous. 5.The parameters of reservoir and fluid are obtained recurring to core analysis, logging evaluation on vertical well and parallel well, and seismic interpretation and prediction. Theses parameters provide data for the quantitative characterization of the reservoir heterogeneity and the distribution law of the fluid barrier and interbed. 6.1n the paper, an integrated method about the distribution prediction of remaining oil is put forward on basis of refined reservoir geological model and reservoir numerical simulation. The precision in history match and prediction of remaining oil is improved greatly. The integrated study embodies latest trend in this research field. 7.It is shown that the enrichment of the remaining oil with high watercut in Liuhua 11-1 oil field is influenced by reservoir heterogeneity, fluid barrier and interbed, sealing property of fault, driving manner of bottom water and exploitation manner of parallel well. 8.Using microfacies, IRH, reservoir structure, effective thickness, physical property of reservoir, distribution of fluid barrier and interbed, the analysis of oil and water movement and production data, twelve new sidetracked holes are proposed and demonstrated. The result is favorable to instruct oil field development and have gotten a good effect.

Using time-to-contact information to assess potential collision modulates both visual and temporal prediction networks

Accurate estimates of the time-to-contact (TTC) of approaching objects are crucial for survival. We used an ecologically valid driving simulation to compare and contrast the neural substrates of egocentric (head-on approach) and allocentric (lateral approach) TTC tasks in a fully factorial, event-related fMRI design. Compared to colour control tasks, both egocentric and allocentric TTC tasks activated left ventral premotor cortex/frontal operculum and inferior parietal cortex, the same areas that have previously been implicated in temporal attentional orienting. Despite differences in visual and cognitive demands, both TTC and temporal orienting paradigms encourage the use of temporally predictive information to guide behaviour, suggesting these areas may form a core network for temporal prediction. We also demonstrated that the temporal derivative of the perceptual index tau (tau-dot) held predictive value for making collision judgements and varied inversely with activity in primary visual cortex (V1). Specifically, V1 activity increased with the increasing likelihood of reporting a collision, suggesting top-down attentional modulation of early visual processing areas as a function of subjective collision. Finally, egocentric viewpoints provoked a response bias for reporting collisions, rather than no-collisions, reflecting increased caution for head-on approaches. Associated increases in SMA activity suggest motor preparation mechanisms were engaged, despite the perceptual nature of the task.

Accountability for Responsibility: An assessment of the Transnational Capitalist Class' role in driving a Global CSR Agenda

Globalisation has led to the establishment of a new hierarchy of leadership. At the helm is the Transnational Capitalist Class (TCC) , which oversees the direction of Multi National Corporations (MNCs) at a global level. Can the TCC, as leaders in the governance agenda, drive a global CSR agenda, or, perhaps, the question should be: do they want to drive a CSR agenda?
The hypothesis of this article is that, as the structure of global leadership and governance has changed, so too has the potential for aligning national CSR agendas to a globally accepted standard. This is unlikely due to systematic limitations inherent in a transitional structural realignment of global leadership. Whereas the design of global leadership has changed due to processes of globalization, the bodies that can regulate this leadership have not developed at the same pace. Regulation on issues such as CSR remains at national, federal and supra-­-national levels suggesting that TCCs have a free reign in dictating agenda. This new class (TCC) may bear a responsibility for CSR but there is a lack of accountability if it is not fulfilled.

Higher education in flight:a new direction for international assignments research

This paper draws attention to the significant internationalisation of the higher education sector and role of international assignments in supporting and driving this. The paper then proceeds to identify the similarities and unique features of the sector in the context of international assignments which we argue, primarily revolve around alternative forms, namely international frequent flyers and short-term assignments. Finally, a model is proposed that may facilitate higher education institutes in more effective international assignment utilisation. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The examination of predictors of success in two programmes requiring self-direction /

The new Physiotherapy and Occupational Therapy programmes, based in the Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University (Hamilton, Ontario) are unique. The teaching and learning philosophies utilized are based on learner-centred and selfdirected learning theories. The 1991 admissions process of these programmes attempted to select individuals who would make highly qualified professionals and who would have the necessary skills to complete such unique programmes. In order to: 1 . learn more about the concept of self-directed learning and its related characteristics in health care professionals; 2. examine the relationship between various student characteristics - personal, learner and those assessed during the admissions process - and final course grades, and 3. determine which, if any, smdent characteristics could be considered predictors for success in learner-centred programmes requiring self-directed learning skills, a correlational research design was developed and carried out. Thirty Occupational Therapy and thirty Physiotherapy smdents were asked to complete 2 instruments - a questionnaire developed by the author and the Oddi Continuing Learning Inventory (Oddi, 1986). Course grades and ratings of students during the admissions process were also obtained. Both questionnaires were examined for reliability, and factor analyses were conducted to determine construct validity. Data obtained from the questionnaires, course grades and student ratings (from the admissions process) were analyzed and compared using the Contingency Co-efficient, the Pearson's product-moment correlation co-efficient, and the multiple regression analysis model. The research findings demonstrated a positive relationship (as identified by Contingency Coefficient or Pearson r values) between various course grades and the following personal and learner characteristics: field of smdy of highest level of education achieved, level of education achieved, sex, marital stams, motivation for completing the programmes, reasons for eru-oling in the programmes, decision to enrol in the programmes, employment history, preferred learning style, strong selfconcept and the identification of various components of the concept of self-directed learning. In most cases, the relationships were significant to the 0.01 or 0.(X)1 levels. Results of the multiple regression analyses demonstrated that several learner and admissions characteristic variables had R^ values that accounted for the largest proportion of the variance in several dependent variables. Thus, these variables could be considered predictors for success. The learner characteristics included: level of education and strong self-concept. The admissions characteristics included: ability to evaluate strengths, ability to give feedback, curiosity and creativity, and communication skills. It is recommended that research continue to be conducted to substantiate the relationships found between course grades and characteristic variables in more diverse populations. "Success in self-directed programmes" from the learner's perspective should also be investigated. The Oddi Continuing Learning Inventory should continue to be researched. Further research may lead to refinement or further development of the instrument, and may provide further insight into self-directed learner attributes. The concept of self-directed learning continues to be incorporated into educational programmes, and thus should continue to be explored.

‘Driving Forces of Investment Decisions in Mutual Funds’

Unfortunately, in India it is a fact that most of the investors are not interested in mutual funds. Those who are investing, they are investing only very small amounts. But what is important to be noted here is that when compared to other financial instruments, investments in mutual funds are safer and also yields more returns on the investment portfolio. Moreover as an investment avenue mutual fund is available for those investors who are not willing to take any exposure directly in the security market. It also helps such investors to build their wealth over a period of time. At the retail level, investors are unique and are highly heterogeneous, and the mutual fund schemes' selection will also differ depends on their expectations. Hence, investors’ expectation is a very important factor in this regard that needs to be analysed by all the investment houses. Hence, the factors that drive the investment decisions of individual investors to meet their expectations by investing money in mutual funds need an in-depth analysis. These driving forces include the preference of investors on mutual fund compared to various available avenues of financial investments, risk attitude of investors, influence of characteristics of instruments of mutual funds on investors, the investment specific attitudes of investors, and influence of qualities of fund management on investors. The success of any mutual fund, a popular means of investment, depends on how effectively an Asset Management Company has been able to understand the level of influence of these factors on the decision of investors to invest in mutual funds. For a substantial growth in the mutual fund market, there must be a high level precision in the design and marketing of the products of mutual funds taking into account these driving forces by the Asset Management Companies. Therefore, there is a need to conduct a detailed study on investments in mutual funds in this direction. A review of available literature also revealed that no detailed study on mutual funds has so far been attempted in this direction; hence the present study on Driving Forces of Investment Decisions in Mutual Funds is undertaken.

Prediction of the azimuth angle dependence of the quasimolecular anisotropy in heavy ion collisions

Within the quasimolecular (MO) kinematic dipole model we predict a strong dependence of the anisotropy of the MO radiation on the orientation of the heavy ion scattering plane relative to the direction of the photon detection plane.

Regional Differences in the Prediction of Extratropical Cyclones by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

A regional study of the prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) has been performed. An objective feature-tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast error statistics have then been produced for the position, intensity, and propagation speed of the storms. In previous work, data limitations meant it was only possible to present the diagnostics for the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) or Southern Hemisphere. A larger data sample has allowed the diagnostics to be computed separately for smaller regions around the globe and has made it possible to explore the regional differences in the prediction of storms by the EPS. Results show that in the NH there is a larger ensemble mean error in the position of storms over the Atlantic Ocean. Further analysis revealed that this is mainly due to errors in the prediction of storm propagation speed rather than in direction. Forecast storms propagate too slowly in all regions, but the bias is about 2 times as large in the NH Atlantic region. The results show that storm intensity is generally overpredicted over the ocean and underpredicted over the land and that the absolute error in intensity is larger over the ocean than over the land. In the NH, large errors occur in the prediction of the intensity of storms that originate as tropical cyclones but then move into the extratropics. The ensemble is underdispersive for the intensity of cyclones (i.e., the spread is smaller than the mean error) in all regions. The spatial patterns of the ensemble mean error and ensemble spread are very different for the intensity of cyclones. Spatial distributions of the ensemble mean error suggest that large errors occur during the growth phase of storm development, but this is not indicated by the spatial distributions of the ensemble spread. In the NH there are further differences. First, the large errors in the prediction of the intensity of cyclones that originate in the tropics are not indicated by the spread. Second, the ensemble mean error is larger over the Pacific Ocean than over the Atlantic, whereas the opposite is true for the spread. The use of a storm-tracking approach, to both weather forecasters and developers of forecast systems, is also discussed.

The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.

Concord Grape Juice, cognitive function and driving performance: a 12 week, placebo controlled, randomised, crossover trial in mothers of pre-teen children

Background: Daily consumption of Concord grape juice (CGJ) over three to four months has been shown to improve memory function in adults with mild cognitive impairment, and reduce blood pressure in hypertensive adults. These benefits are likely due to the high concentration of polyphenols in CGJ. Increased stress can impair cognitive function and elevate blood pressure. Thus we examined the potential beneficial effect of CGJ in individuals experiencing somewhat stressful demanding lifestyles. Objective: To examine the effects of twelve weeks’ daily consumption of CGJ on cognitive function, driving performance, and blood pressure in healthy, middle-aged working mothers. Design: Twenty five healthy mothers of pre-teen children, aged 40-50 years, who were employed for > 30 hours/week consumed 12oz (355ml) CGJ (containing 777mg total polyphenols) or an energy, taste and appearance matched placebo daily for twelve weeks according to a randomised, crossover design with a four week washout. Verbal and spatial memory, executive function, attention, blood pressure and mood were assessed at baseline, six weeks and twelve weeks. Immediately following the cognitive battery, a subsample of seventeen females completed a driving performance assessment in the University of Leeds Driving Simulator. The twenty five minute driving task required participants to match the speed and direction of a lead vehicle. Results: Significant improvements in immediate spatial memory and driving performance were observed following CGJ relative to placebo. There was evidence of an enduring effect of CGJ such that participants who received CGJ in arm 1 maintained better performance in the placebo arm. Conclusions: Cognitive benefits associated with chronic consumption of flavonoid-rich grape juice are not exclusive to adults with mild cognitive impairment. Moreover, these cognitive benefits are apparent in complex everyday tasks such as driving. Effects may persist beyond cessation of flavonoid consumption and future studies should carefully consider the length of washout within crossover designs.

Mechanical and electrical driving field induced high-frequency dielectric anomalies in ferroelectric systems

Polycrystalline or single-crystal ferroelectric materials present dielectric dispersion in the frequency range 100 MHz-1 GHz that has been attributed to a dispersive ( relaxation-like) mechanism as well as a resonant mechanism. Particularly in 'normal' ferroelectric materials, a dielectric response that is indistinguishable from dispersion or a resonance has been reported. Nevertheless, the reported results are not conclusive enough to distinguish each mechanism clearly. A detailed study of the dielectric dispersion phenomenon has been carried out in PbTiO3-based ferroelectric ceramics, with the composition Pb1-xLaxTiO3 (x = 0.15), over a wide range of temperatures and frequencies, including microwave frequencies. The dielectric response of La-modified lead titanate ferroelectric ceramics, in 'virgin' and poled states, has been investigated in the temperature and frequency ranges 300-450 K and 1 kHz-2 GHz, respectively. The results revealed that the frequency dependence of the dielectric anomalies, depending on the measuring direction with respect to the orientation of the macroscopic polarization, may be described as a general mechanism related to an 'over-damped' resonant process. Applying either a uniaxial stress along the measurement field direction or a poling electric field parallel and/or perpendicular to the measuring direction, a resonant response of the real and imaginary components of the dielectric constant is observed, in contrast to the dispersion behavior obtained in the absence of the stress, for the 'virgin' samples. Both results, resonance and/or dispersion, can be explained by considering a common mechanism involving a resonant response (damped and/or over-damped) which is strongly affected by a ferroelastic-ferroelectric coupling, contributing to the low-field dielectric constant.

Spin stabilized satellite's attitude analytical prediction

An analytical approach for spin stabilized attitude propagation is presented, considering the coupled effect of the aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque. A spherical coordination system fixed in the satellite is used to locate the satellite spin axis in relation to the terrestrial equatorial system. The spin axis direction is specified by its right ascension and the declination angles and the equation of motion are described by these two angles and the magnitude of the spin velocity. An analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean torques over an orbital period. To compute the average components of both aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque in the satellite body frame reference system, an average time in the fast varying orbit element, the mean anomaly, is utilized. Afterwards, the inclusion of such torques on the rotational motion differential equations of spin stabilized satellites yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The pointing deviation evolution, that is, the deviation between the actual spin axis and the computed spin axis, is also availed. In order to validate the analytical approach, the theory developed has been applied for spin stabilized Brazilian satellite SCD1, which are quite appropriated for verification and comparison of the data generated and processed by the Satellite Control Center of the Brazil National Research Institute (INPE). Numerical simulations performed with data of Brazilian Satellite SCD1 show the period that the analytical solution can be used to the attitude propagation, within the dispersion range of the attitude determination system performance of Satellite Control Center of the Brazilian Research Institute.

Development of a support vector machine-based navigation system for driving a mobile robot through paths in plantations

The use of mobile robots turns out to be interesting in activities where the action of human specialist is difficult or dangerous. Mobile robots are often used for the exploration in areas of difficult access, such as rescue operations and space missions, to avoid human experts exposition to risky situations. Mobile robots are also used in agriculture for planting tasks as well as for keeping the application of pesticides within minimal amounts to mitigate environmental pollution. In this paper we present the development of a system to control the navigation of an autonomous mobile robot through tracks in plantations. Track images are used to control robot direction by preprocessing them to extract image features. Such features are then submitted to a support vector machine in order to find out the most appropriate route. The overall goal of the project to which this work is connected is to develop a real time robot control system to be embedded into a hardware platform. In this paper we report the software implementation of a support vector machine, which so far presented around 93% accuracy in predicting the appropriate route. © 2012 IEEE.