Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Solução analítica da equação da energia estacionária e bidimensional para simulação de escoamento plenamente desenvolvido em placa paralela pelo método da giltt

Neste trabalho e apresentado um avanço na tecnica GILTT(Generalized Integral and Laplace Transform Technique) solucionando analiticamente um sistema de EDO's(Equações Diferenciais Ordinarias) de segunda ordem resultante da transformação pela GITT(Generalized Integral Transform Technique). Este tipo de problema usualmente aparece quando esta tecnica é aplicada na solução de problemas bidimensionais estacionários. A principal idéia consiste na redução de ordem do problema transformado em outro sistema de EDO's lineares de primeira ordem e a solução analítica deste problema, pela técnica da transformada de Laplace. Como exemplo de aplicação é resolvida a equação da energia linear bidimensional e estacionária. São apresentadas simulações numéricas e comparações com resultados disponíveis na literatura.

Solução analítica do problema bidimensional transiente de dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos pelo método GITT dupla

Neste trabalho é apresentada uma solução analítica de um problema bidimensional e transiente de dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos. O modelamento utilizado é conhecido na literatura como modelo Kzz para dispersão de poluentes atmosféricos e é representado por uma equação difusivo-advectiva com coeficientes de difusão e advecção variáveis. São utilizados três diferentes coeficientes de difusão nas simulações, bem como as componentes horizontal e vertical do vento são tomadas como variáveis. A solução analítica é gerada através da aplicação da técnica GITT (Generalized Integral Transform Technique) dupla com problema transformado resolvido por Transformada de Laplace e diagonalização de matrizes. Filtros matemáticos são usados para homogenizar as condições de contorno viabilizando o uso da técnica citada. Além disso, o tipo de filtro matemático utilizado permite a sensível diminuição do custo computacional. Resultados numéricos são obtidos e comparados com dados experimentais e outras soluções da literatura.

Heat transfer in laminar flow of non-Newtonian fluids in ducts of elliptical section

Laminar forced convection inside tubes of various cross-section shapes is of interest in the design of a low Reynolds number heat exchanger apparatus. Heat transfer to thermally developing, hydrodynamically developed forced convection inside tubes of simple geometries such as a circular tube, parallel plate, or annular duct has been well studied in the literature and documented in various books, but for elliptical duct there are not much work done. The main assumption used in this work is a laminar flow of a power flow inside elliptical tube, under a boundary condition of first kind with constant physical properties and negligible axial heat diffusion (high Peclet number). To solve the thermally developing problem, we use the generalized integral transform technique (GITT), also known as Sturm-Liouville transform. Actually, such an integral transform is a generalization of the finite Fourier transform where the sine and cosine functions are replaced by more general sets of orthogonal functions. The axes are algebraically transformed from the Cartesian coordinate system to the elliptical coordinate system in order to avoid the irregular shape of the elliptical duct wall. The GITT is then applied to transform and solve the problem and to obtain the once unknown temperature field. Afterward, it is possible to compute and present the quantities of practical interest, such as the bulk fluid temperature, the local Nusselt number and the average Nusselt number for various cross-section aspect ratios. (C) 2006 Elsevier. SAS. All rights reserved.

LAMINAR THERMALLY DEVELOPING FLOW INSIDE RIGHT-ANGULARLY TRIANGULAR DUCTS

An analytical approach based on the generalized integral transform technique is presented, for the solution of laminar forced convection within the thermal entry region of ducts with arbitrarily shaped cross-sections. The analysis is illustrated through consideration of a right triangular duct subjected to constant wall temperature boundary condition. Critical comparisons are made with results available in the literature, from direct numerical approaches. Numerical results for dimensionless average temperature and Nusselt numbers are presented for different apex angles.

An alternative formulation for guided electromagnetic fields in grounded chiral slabs - Summary

An alternative formulation for guided electromagnetic fields in grounded chiral slabs is presented. This formulation is formally equivalent to the double Fourier transform method used by the authors to calculate the spectral fields in open chirostrip structures. In this paper, we have addressed the behavior of the electromagnetic fields in the vicinity of the ground plane and at the interface between the chiral substrate and the free space region. It was found that the boundary conditions for the magnetic field, valid for achiral media, are not completely satisfied when we deal with chiral material. Effects of chirality on electromagnetic field distributions and on surface wave dispersion curves were also analyzed.

Analytical/numerical hybrid solution for one-dimensional ablation problem

Ablation is a thermal protection process with several applications in engineering, mainly in the field of airspace industry. The use of conventional materials must be quite restricted, because they would suffer catastrophic flaws due to thermal degradation of their structures. However, the same materials can be quite suitable once being protected by well-known ablative materials. The process that involves the ablative phenomena is complex, could involve the whole or partial loss of material that is sacrificed for absorption of energy. The analysis of the ablative process in a blunt body with revolution geometry will be made on the stagnation point area that can be simplified as a one-dimensional plane plate problem, hi this work the Generalized Integral Transform Technique (GITT) is employed for the solution of the non-linear system of coupled partial differential equations that model the phenomena. The solution of the problem is obtained by transforming the non-linear partial differential equation system to a system of coupled first order ordinary differential equations and then solving it by using well-established numerical routines. The results of interest such as the temperature field, the depth and the rate of removal of the ablative material are presented and compared with those ones available in the open literature.

Thermally developing forced convection of non-Newtonian fluids inside elliptical ducts

Laminar-forced convection inside tubes of various cross-section shapes is of interest in the design of a low Reynolds number heat exchanger apparatus. Heat transfer to thermally developing, hydrodynamically developed forced convection inside tubes of simple geometries such as a circular tube, parallel plate, or annular duct has been well studied in the literature and documented in various books, but for elliptical duct there are not much work done. The main assumptions used in this work are a non-Newtonian fluid, laminar flow, constant physical properties, and negligible axial heat diffusion (high Peclet number). Most of the previous research in elliptical ducts deal mainly with aspects of fully developed laminar flow forced convection, such as velocity profile, maximum velocity, pressure drop, and heat transfer quantities. In this work, we examine heat transfer in a hydrodynamically developed, thermally developing laminar forced convection flow of fluid inside an elliptical tube under a second kind of a boundary condition. To solve the thermally developing problem, we use the generalized integral transform technique (GITT), also known as Sturm-Liouville transform. Actually, such an integral transform is a generalization of the finite Fourier transform, where the sine and cosine functions are replaced by more general sets of orthogonal functions. The axes are algebraically transformed from the Cartesian coordinate system to the elliptical coordinate system in order to avoid the irregular shape of the elliptical duct wall. The GITT is then applied to transform and solve the problem and to obtain the once unknown temperature field. Afterward, it is possible to compute and present the quantities of practical interest, such as the bulk fluid temperature, the local Nusselt number, and the average Nusselt number for various cross-section aspect ratios.

Estudo analítico/numérico do problema de ablação em corpos rombudos com simetria axial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Solução híbrida da equação de advecção-dispersão em meios porosos

Este trabalho consiste na solução híbrida da Equação de Advecção-dispersão de solutos unidimensional em meios porosos homogêneos ou heterogêneos, para um único componente, com coeficientes de retardo, dispersão, velocidade média, decaimento e produção dependentes da distância percorrida pelo soluto. Serão estudados os casos de dispersão-advecção em que o retardamento, dispersão, velocidade do fluxo, decaimento e produção variem de forma linear enquanto a dispersividade assuma os modelos linear, parabólico ou exponencial. Para a solução da equação foi aplicada a Técnica da Transformada Integral Generalizada. Os resultados obtidos nesta dissertação demonstram boa concordância entre os problemas-exemplo e suas soluções numéricas ou analíticas contidas na literatura e apontam uma melhor adequação no uso de modelos parabólico no estudo da advecção-dispersão em curto intervalo de tempo, enquanto que o modelo linear converge mais rapidamente em tempos prolongados de simulação. A convergência da série mostrou-se ter dependência direta quanto ao comprimento do domínio, ao modelo de dispersão e da dispersividade adotada, convergindo com até 60 termos, podendo chegar a NT = 170, para os casos heterogêneos, utilizando o modelo de dispersão exponencial, respeitando o critério adotado de 10^-4.

One-sided and two-sided Green's functions

We discuss the one-sided Green's function, associated with an initial value problem and the two-sided Green's function related to a boundary value problem. We present a specific calculation associated with a differential equation with constant coefficients. For both problems, we also present the Laplace integral transform as another methodology to calculate these Green's functions and conclude which is the most convenient one. An incursion in the so-called fractional Green's function is also presented. As an example, we discuss the isotropic harmonic oscillator.

An inverse method to estimate the moving heat source in machining process

The present work propounds an inverse method to estimate the heat sources in the transient two-dimensional heat conduction problem in a rectangular domain with convective bounders. The non homogeneous partial differential equation (PDE) is solved using the Integral Transform Method. The test function for the heat generation term is obtained by the chip geometry and thermomechanical cutting. Then the heat generation term is estimated by the conjugated gradient method (CGM) with adjoint problem for parameter estimation. The experimental trials were organized to perform six different conditions to provide heat sources of different intensities. This method was compared with others in the literature and advantages are discussed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copula calibration

We propose notions of calibration for probabilistic forecasts of general multivariate quantities. Probabilistic copula calibration is a natural analogue of probabilistic calibration in the univariate setting. It can be assessed empirically by checking for the uniformity of the copula probability integral transform (CopPIT), which is invariant under coordinate permutations and coordinatewise strictly monotone transformations of the predictive distribution and the outcome. The CopPIT histogram can be interpreted as a generalization and variant of the multivariate rank histogram, which has been used to check the calibration of ensemble forecasts. Climatological copula calibration is an analogue of marginal calibration in the univariate setting. Methods and tools are illustrated in a simulation study and applied to compare raw numerical model and statistically postprocessed ensemble forecasts of bivariate wind vectors.

Modelling the input-output behaviour of piezoelectric structural health monitoring systems for composite plates

This paper investigates the input-output characteristics of structural health monitoring systems for composite plates based on permanently attached piezoelectric transmitter and sensor elements. Using dynamic piezoelectricity theory and a multiple integral transform method to describe the propagating and scattered flexural waves an electro-mechanical model for simulating the voltage input-output transfer function for circular piezoelectric transmitters and sensors adhesively attached to an orthotropic composite plate is developed. The method enables the characterization of all three physical processes, i.e. wave generation, wave propagation and wave reception. The influence of transducer, plate and attached electrical circuit characteristics on the voltage output behaviour of the system is examined through numerical calculations, both in frequency and the time domain. The results show that the input-output behaviour of the system is not properly predicted by the transducers' properties alone. Coupling effects between the transducers and the tested structure have to be taken into account, and adding backing materials to the piezoelectric elements can significantly improve the sensitivity of the system. It is shown that in order to achieve maximum sensitivity, particular piezoelectric transmitters and sensors need to be designed according to the structure to be monitored and the specific frequency regime of interest.

Operational Rules for a Mixed Operator of the Erdélyi-Kober Type

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33 (main), 44A40, 44A35, 33E30, 45J05, 45D05