A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Geothermal district heating networks: modelling novel operational strategies incorporating heat storage

The value of integrating a heat storage into a geothermal district heating system has been investigated. The behaviour of the system under a novel operational strategy has been simulated focusing on the energetic, economic and environmental effects of the new strategy of incorporation of the heat storage within the system. A typical geothermal district heating system consists of several production wells, a system of pipelines for the transportation of the hot water to end-users, one or more re-injection wells and peak-up devices (usually fossil-fuel boilers). Traditionally in these systems, the production wells change their production rate throughout the day according to heat demand, and if their maximum capacity is exceeded the peak-up devices are used to meet the balance of the heat demand. In this study, it is proposed to maintain a constant geothermal production and add heat storage into the network. Subsequently, hot water will be stored when heat demand is lower than the production and the stored hot water will be released into the system to cover the peak demands (or part of these). It is not intended to totally phase-out the peak-up devices, but to decrease their use, as these will often be installed anyway for back-up purposes. Both the integration of a heat storage in such a system as well as the novel operational strategy are the main novelties of this thesis. A robust algorithm for the sizing of these systems has been developed. The main inputs are the geothermal production data, the heat demand data throughout one year or more and the topology of the installation. The outputs are the sizing of the whole system, including the necessary number of production wells, the size of the heat storage and the dimensions of the pipelines amongst others. The results provide several useful insights into the initial design considerations for these systems, emphasizing particularly the importance of heat losses. Simulations are carried out for three different cases of sizing of the installation (small, medium and large) to examine the influence of system scale. In the second phase of work, two algorithms are developed which study in detail the operation of the installation throughout a random day and a whole year, respectively. The first algorithm can be a potentially powerful tool for the operators of the installation, who can know a priori how to operate the installation on a random day given the heat demand. The second algorithm is used to obtain the amount of electricity used by the pumps as well as the amount of fuel used by the peak-up boilers over a whole year. These comprise the main operational costs of the installation and are among the main inputs of the third part of the study. In the third part of the study, an integrated energetic, economic and environmental analysis of the studied installation is carried out together with a comparison with the traditional case. The results show that by implementing heat storage under the novel operational strategy, heat is generated more cheaply as all the financial indices improve, more geothermal energy is utilised and less fuel is used in the peak-up boilers, with subsequent environmental benefits, when compared to the traditional case. Furthermore, it is shown that the most attractive case of sizing is the large one, although the addition of the heat storage most greatly impacts the medium case of sizing. In other words, the geothermal component of the installation should be sized as large as possible. This analysis indicates that the proposed solution is beneficial from energetic, economic, and environmental perspectives. Therefore, it can be stated that the aim of this study is achieved in its full potential. Furthermore, the new models for the sizing, operation and economic/energetic/environmental analyses of these kind of systems can be used with few adaptations for real cases, making the practical applicability of this study evident. Having this study as a starting point, further work could include the integration of these systems with end-user demands, further analysis of component parts of the installation (such as the heat exchangers) and the integration of a heat pump to maximise utilisation of geothermal energy.

Utilization of Automatic Meter Reading in the Improvement of a District Heating System

A district heating system comprises production facilities, a distribution network, and heat consumers. The utilization of new energy metering and reading system (AMR) is increasing constantly in district heating systems. This heuristic study shows how the AMR system can be exploited in finding optimization opportunities in district heating system. In this study, the district heating system is mainly considered from the viewpoint of operational optimization. The focus is on the core processes, heat production and distribution. Three objectives were set to this study. The first one was to examine general optimization opportunities in district heating systems. Second, to figure out the benefits of AMR for general optimization opportunities. Finally, to define a methodology for process improvement endeavors. This study shows, through a case study, the usefulness of AMR in specifying current deficiencies in a district heating system. Based on a literature review, the methodology for the improvement of business processes is presented. Additionally, some issues related to future competitiveness of district heating are concerned. As a conclusion, some optimization objectives are considered more desirable than others. Study shows that AMR is useful in the specification of optimization targets in the district heating system. Further steps in optimization process were not examined in detail. That would seem to be interesting topic for further studies.

Optimization of a dynamic district heating power plant

The purpose of this Thesis is to find the most optimal heat recovery solution for Wärtsilä’s dynamic district heating power plant considering Germany energy markets as in Germany government pays subsidies for CHP plants in order to increase its share of domestic power production to 25 % by 2020. Different heat recovery connections have been simulated dozens to be able to determine the most efficient heat recovery connections. The purpose is also to study feasibility of different heat recovery connections in the dynamic district heating power plant in the Germany markets thus taking into consideration the day ahead electricity prices, district heating network temperatures and CHP subsidies accordingly. The auxiliary cooling, dynamical operation and cost efficiency of the power plant is also investigated.

Space heating and hot water demand analysis of dwellings connected to district heating scheme in UK

To achieve CO2 emissions reductions the UK Building Regulations require developers of new residential buildings to calculate expected CO2 emissions arising from their energy consumption using a methodology such as Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP 2005) or, more recently SAP 2009. SAP encompasses all domestic heat consumption and a limited proportion of the electricity consumption. However, these calculations are rarely verified with real energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. This paper presents the results of an analysis based on weekly head demand data for more than 200 individual flats. The data is collected from recently built residential development connected to a district heating network. A methodology for separating out the domestic hot water use (DHW) and space heating demand (SH) has been developed and compares measured values to the demand calculated using SAP 2005 and 2009 methodologies. The analysis shows also the variance in DHW and SH consumption between both size of the flats and tenure (privately owned or housing association). Evaluation of the space heating consumption includes also an estimation of the heating degree day (HDD) base temperature for each block of flats and its comparison to the average base temperature calculated using the SAP 2005 methodology.

Lincoln installs district heating/cooling system.

Mode of access: Internet.

The political shaping of energy technology:combined heat and power in Britain

There has been negligible adoption of combined heat and power (CHP) for district heating (DH) in Britain, despite continued advocacy. This thesis constructs an account of the treatment of the option, and devises a framework for explanation. Analysis of technological development and adoption, it is argued, should be similar to that of other social processes, and be subject to the same requirements and criticisms. They will, however, show features peculiar to the institutions developing and selecting technologies, their relation to different social groups, and the forms of knowledge in and about technology. Conventional approaches - organisation and interorganisation theories, and analyses of policy-making - give useful insights but have common limitations. Elements of an analytical framework situating detailed issues and outcomes in a structured historical context are derived from convergent radical critiques. Thus activity on CHP/DH is essentially shaped by the development and relations of energy sector institutions: central and local government, nationalised industries and particularly the electricity industry. Analysis of them is related to the specific character of the British state. A few CHP and DH installations were tried before 1940. During postwar reconstruction, extensive plans for several cities were abandoned or curtailed. In the 1960s and 70s, many small non-CHP DH schemes were installed on housing estates. From the mid-70s, the national potential of CHP/DH has been reappraised, with widespread support and favourable evaluations, but little practical progress. Significant CHP/DH adoption is shown to have been systematically excluded ultimately by the structure of energy provision; centralised production interests dominate and co-ordination is weak. Marginal economics and political commitment have allowed limited development in exceptional circumstances. Periods of upheaval provided greater opportunity and incentive for CHP/DH but restructuring eventually obstructed it. Explanation of these outcomes is shown to require analysis at several levels, from broad context to detailed action.

The Effect Of Celastrol, A Triterpene With Antitumorigenic Activity, On Conformational And Functional Aspects Of The Human 90kda Heat Shock Protein Hsp90α, A Chaperone Implicated In The Stabilization Of The Tumor Phenotype.

Hsp90 is a molecular chaperone essential for cell viability in eukaryotes that is associated with the maturation of proteins involved in important cell functions and implicated in the stabilization of the tumor phenotype of various cancers, making this chaperone a notably interesting therapeutic target. Celastrol is a plant-derived pentacyclic triterpenoid compound with potent antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and anticancer activities; however, celastrol's action mode is still elusive. In this work, we investigated the effect of celastrol on the conformational and functional aspects of Hsp90α. Interestingly, celastrol appeared to target Hsp90α directly as the compound induced the oligomerization of the chaperone via the C-terminal domain as demonstrated by experiments using a deletion mutant. The nature of the oligomers was investigated by biophysical tools demonstrating that a two-fold excess of celastrol induced the formation of a decameric Hsp90α bound throughout the C-terminal domain. When bound, celastrol destabilized the C-terminal domain. Surprisingly, standard chaperone functional investigations demonstrated that neither the in vitro chaperone activity of protecting against aggregation nor the ability to bind a TPR co-chaperone, which binds to the C-terminus of Hsp90α, were affected by celastrol. Celastrol interferes with specific biological functions of Hsp90α. Our results suggest a model in which celastrol binds directly to the C-terminal domain of Hsp90α causing oligomerization. However, the ability to protect against protein aggregation (supported by our results) and to bind to TPR co-chaperones are not affected by celastrol. Therefore celastrol may act primarily by inducing specific oligomerization that affects some, but not all, of the functions of Hsp90α. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first work to use multiple probes to investigate the effect that celastrol has on the stability and oligomerization of Hsp90α and on the binding of this chaperone to Tom70. This work provides a novel mechanism by which celastrol binds Hsp90α.

Modeling The Effects Of Temperature And Ph On The Resistance Of Alicyclobacillus Acidoterrestris In Conventional Heat-treated Fruit Beverages Through A Meta-analysis Approach.

In this work, all publicly-accessible published findings on Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris heat resistance in fruit beverages as affected by temperature and pH were compiled. Then, study characteristics (protocols, fruit and variety, °Brix, pH, temperature, heating medium, culture medium, inactivation method, strains, etc.) were extracted from the primary studies, and some of them incorporated to a meta-analysis mixed-effects linear model based on the basic Bigelow equation describing the heat resistance parameters of this bacterium. The model estimated mean D* values (time needed for one log reduction at a temperature of 95 °C and a pH of 3.5) of Alicyclobacillus in beverages of different fruits, two different concentration types, with and without bacteriocins, and with and without clarification. The zT (temperature change needed to cause one log reduction in D-values) estimated by the meta-analysis model were compared to those ('observed' zT values) reported in the primary studies, and in all cases they were within the confidence intervals of the model. The model was capable of predicting the heat resistance parameters of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages beyond the types available in the meta-analytical data. It is expected that the compilation of the thermal resistance of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages, carried out in this study, will be of utility to food quality managers in the determination or validation of the lethality of their current heat treatment processes.

Mass loss of four commercially available heat-polymerized acrylic resins after toothbrushing with three different dentifrices

The association between a toothbrush and a dentifrice is the most used denture cleaning method. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the abrasiveness of specific and non-specific denture cleaning dentifrices on different heat-polymerized acrylic resins. Sixteen specimens (90x30x3mm) of each acrylic resin (QC-20, Lucitone 550, Clássico, Vipi-Cril) were prepared and randomly assigned to 4 groups: 1: control (distilled water), 2: Colgate, 3: Bonyplus and 4: Dentu-Creme. The specimens were subjected to simulated toothbrushing in an automatic brushing machine using 35,600 brush strokes for each specimen. Brushing abrasion run at a 200-g load with the specimens immersed in 2:1 dentifrice/water slurry. Specimens were reconditioned to constant mass and the mass loss (mg) was evaluated. Data were analyzed by 2-way ANOVA and Tukey's test (a=0.05). Analysis of dentifrices' abrasive particles was made by scanning electron microscopy. Colgate produced the greatest mass reduction (42.44 mg, p<0.05), followed by Dentu-Creme (33.60 mg). Bonyplus was the less abrasive (19.91 mg), similar to the control group (19.69 mg) (p>0.05). The mass loss values indicated that QC-20 (33.13 mg) and Lucitone 550 (33.05 mg) resins were less (p<0.05) resistant to abrasion than Clássico (26.04 mg) and Vipi-Cril (23.43 mg). In conclusion, Colgate produced the greatest abrasion. Specific dentifrices for dentures tend to cause less damage to acrylic resins.