Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Performance Evaluation Of SMOS Soil Moisture Retrieval Parameters For Hydrological Application

Microwave remote sensing has high potential for soil moisture retrieval. However, the efficient retrieval of soil moisture depends on optimally choosing the soil moisture retrieval parameters. In this study first the initial evaluation of SMOS L2 product is performed and then four approaches regarding soil moisture retrieval from SMOS brightness temperature are reported. The radiative transfer equation based tau-omega rationale is used in this study for the soil moisture retrievals. The single channel algorithms (SCA) using H polarisation is implemented with modifications, which includes the effective temperatures simulated from ECMWF (downscaled using WRF-NOAH Land Surface Model (LSM)) and MODIS. The retrieved soil moisture is then utilized for soil moisture deficit (SMD) estimation using empirical relationships with Probability Distributed Model based SMD as a benchmark. The square of correlation during the calibration indicates a value of R2 =0.359 for approach 4 (WRF-NOAH LSM based LST with optimized roughness parameters) followed by the approach 2 (optimized roughness parameters and MODIS based LST) (R2 =0.293), approach 3 (WRF-NOAH LSM based LST with no optimization) (R2 =0.267) and approach 1(MODIS based LST with no optimization) (R2 =0.163). Similarly, during the validation a highest performance is reported by approach 4. The other approaches are also following a similar trend as calibration. All the performances are depicted through Taylor diagram which indicates that the H polarisation using ECMWF based LST is giving a better performance for SMD estimation than the original SMOS L2 products at a catchment scale.

Estudo de manejo de águas pluviais urbanas na cidade Natal-Rio Grande do Norte

Urban stormwater can be considered as potential water resources as well as problems for the proper functioning of the manifold activities of the city, resulting from inappropriate use and occupation of the soil, usually due to poor planning of the occupation of the development areas, with little care for the environmental aspects of the drainage of surface runoff. As a basic premise, we must seek mechanisms to preserve the natural flow in all stages of development of an urban area, preserving the soil infiltration capacity in the scale of the urban area, comprising the mechanisms of natural drainage, and noting preserving natural areas of dynamic water courses, both in the main channel and in the secondary. They are challenges for a sustainable urban development in a harmonious coexistence of modern developmental, which are consistent with the authoritative economic environmental and social quality. Integrated studies involving the quantity and quality of rainwater are absolutely necessary to achieve understanding and obtaining appropriate technologies, involving both aspects of the drainage problems and aspects of use of water when subjected to an adequate management of surface runoff , for example, the accumulation of these reservoirs in detention with the possibility of use for other purposes. The purpose of this study aims to develop a computer model, adjusted to prevailing conditions of an experimental urban watershed in order to enable the implementation of management practices for water resources, hydrological simulations of quantity and, in a preliminary way, the quality of stormwater that flow to a pond located at the downstream end of the basin. To this end, we used in parallel with the distributed model SWMM data raised the basin with the highest possible resolution to allow the simulation of diffuse loads, heterogeneous characteristics of the basin both in terms of hydrological and hydraulic parameters on the use and occupation soil. The parallel work should improve the degree of understanding of the phenomena simulated in the basin as well as the activity of the calibration models, and this is supported by monitoring data acquired during the duration of the project MAPLU (Urban Stormwater Management) belonging to the network PROSAB (Research Program in Basic Sanitation) in the years 2006 to 2008

Modal Analysis of a Beam with a Tip Rotor by Using a Fundamental Response

The shape modes of a damped-free beam model with a tip rotor are determined by using a dynamical basis that is generated by a fundamental spatial free response. This is a non-classical distributed model for the displacements in the transverse directions of the beam which turns out to be coupled through boundary conditions due to rotation. Numerical calculations are performed by using the Ritz-Rayleigh method with several approximating basis.

Integração entre um modelo de simulação hidrológica e Sistema de Informação Geográfica na delimitação de zonas tampão ripárias

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Advances in the modeling, characterization and reliability of concentrator multijunction solar cells

Los sistemas de concentración fotovoltaica (CPV) parecen ser una de las vías más prometedoras para generar electricidad a gran escala a precios competitivos. La investigación actual se centra en aumentar la eficiencia y la concentración de los sistemas para abaratar costes. Al mismo tiempo se investiga sobre la fiabilidad de los diferentes componentes que integran un sistema de concentración, ya que para que los sistemas de concentración sean competitivos es necesario que tengan una fiabilidad al menos similar a los sistemas basados en células de silicio. En la presente tesis doctoral se ha llevado a cabo el estudio de aspectos avanzados de células solares multi-unión diseñadas para trabajar a concentraciones ultra-altas. Para ello, se ha desarrollado un modelo circuital tridimensional distribuido con el que simular el comportamiento de las células solares triple-unión bajo distintas condiciones de funcionamiento, así mismo se ha realizado una caracterización avanzada de este tipo de células para comprender mejor su modo de operación y así poder contribuir a mejorar su eficiencia. Finalmente, se han llevado a cabo ensayos de vida acelerados en células multiunión comerciales para conocer la fiabilidad de este tipo de células solares. Para la simulación de células solares triple-unión se ha desarrollado en la presente tesis doctoral un modelo circuital tridimensinal distribuido el cuál integra una descripción completa de la unión túnel. De este modo, con el modelo desarrollado, hemos podido simular perfiles de luz sobre la célula solar que hacen que la densidad de corriente fotogenerada sea mayor a la densidad de corriente pico de la unión túnel. El modelo desarrollado también contempla la distribución lateral de corriente en las capas semiconductoras que componen y rodean la unión túnel. Por tanto, se ha podido simular y analizar el efecto que tiene sobre el funcionamiento de la célula solar que los concentradores ópticos produzcan perfiles de luz desuniformes, tanto en nivel de irradiancia como en el contenido espectral de la luz (aberración cromática). Con el objetivo de determinar cuáles son los mecanismos de recombinación que están limitando el funcionamiento de cada subcélula que integra una triple-unión, y así intentar reducirlos, se ha llevado a cabo la caracterización eléctrica de células solares monouni ón idénticas a las subcelulas de una triple-unión. También se ha determinado la curva corriente-tensión en oscuridad de las subcélulas de GaInP y GaAs de una célula dobleunión mediante la utilización de un teorema de reciprocidad electro-óptico. Finalmente, se ha analizado el impacto de los diferentes mecanismos de recombinación en el funcionamiento de la célula solar triple-unión en concentración. Por último, para determinar la fiabilidad de este tipo de células, se ha llevado a cabo un ensayo de vida acelerada en temperatura en células solares triple-unión comerciales. En la presente tesis doctoral se describe el diseño del ensayo, el progreso del mismo y los datos obtenidos tras el análisis de los resultados preliminares. Abstract Concentrator photovoltaic systems (CPV) seem to be one of the most promising ways to generate electricity at competitive prices. Nowadays, the research is focused on increasing the efficiency and the concentration of the systems in order to reduce costs. At the same time, another important area of research is the study of the reliability of the different components which make up a CPV system. In fact, in order for a CPV to be cost-effective, it should have a warranty at least similar to that of the systems based on Si solar cells. In the present thesis, we will study in depth the behavior of multijunction solar cells under ultra-high concentration. With this purpose in mind, a three-dimensional circuital distributed model which is able to simulate the behavior of triple-junction solar cells under different working conditions has been developed. Also, an advanced characterization of these solar cells has been carried out in order to better understand their behavior and thus contribute to improving efficiency. Finally, accelerated life tests have been carried out on commercial lattice-matched triple-junction solar cells in order to determine their reliability. In order to simulate triple-junction solar cells, a 3D circuital distributed model which integrates a full description of the tunnel junction has been developed. We have analyzed the behavior of the multijunction solar cell under light profiles which cause the current density photo-generated in the solar cell to be higher than the tunnel junction’s peak current density. The advanced model developed also takes into account the lateral current spreading through the semiconductor layers which constitute and surround the tunnel junction. Therefore, the effects of non-uniform light profiles, in both irradiance and the spectral content produced by the concentrators on the solar cell, have been simulated and analyzed. In order to determine which recombination mechanisms are limiting the behavior of each subcell in a triple-junction stack, and to try to reduce them when possible, an electrical characterization of single-junction solar cells that resemble the subcells in a triplejunction stack has been carried out. Also, the dark I-V curves of the GaInP and GaAs subcells in a dual-junction solar cell have been determined by using an electro-optical reciprocity theorem. Finally, the impact of the different recombination mechanisms on the behavior of the triple-junction solar cell under concentration has been analyzed. In order to determine the reliability of these solar cells, a temperature accelerated life test has been carried out on commercial triple-junction solar cells. In the present thesis, the design and the evolution of the test, as well as the data obtained from the analysis of the preliminary results, are presented.

Analysis of the behavior of multijunction solar cells under high irradiance Gaussian light profiles showing chromatic aberration with emphasis on tunnel junction performance

In this work, we explain the behavior of multijunction solar cells under non-uniform (spatially and in spectral content) light profiles in general and in particular when Gaussian light profiles cause a photo-generated current density, which exceeds locally the peak current density of the tunnel junction. We have analyzed the implications on the tunnel junction's limitation, that is, in the loss of efficiency due to the appearance of a dip in the I–V curve. For that, we have carried out simulations with our three-dimensional distributed model for multijunction solar cells, which contemplates a full description of the tunnel junction and also takes into account the lateral resistances in the tunnel junction. The main findings are that the current density photo-generated spreads out through the lateral resistances of the device, mainly through the tunnel junction layers and the back contact. Therefore, under non-uniform light profiles these resistances are determinant not only to avoid the tunnel junction's limitation but also for mitigating losses in the fill factor. Therefore, taking into account these lateral resistances could be the key for jointly optimizing the concentrator photovoltaic system (concentrator optics, front grid layout and semiconductor structure)

Beauty in the brain of the beholder

Facial beauty is an honest signal of the genotypic and phenotypic quality of the bearer. Beautiful people are thus regarded as high-value mates who maximize reproductive success by producing viable offspring. Here, the functional neuroanatomy of facial beauty is reviewed and placed into the context of the distributed model for human face perception. A proposed extension of the distributed model is provided, which takes into account the neuroanatomy of beautiful face perception.

Representing spray zone with cross flow as a well-mixed compartment in a high shear granulator

The spray zone is an important region to control nucleation of granules in a high shear granulator. In this study, a spray zone with cross flow is quantified as a well-mixed compartment in a high shear granulator. Granulation kinetics is quantitatively derived at both particle-scale and spray zone-scale. Two spatial decay rates, DGSDR (droplet-granule spatial decay rate) ζDG and DPSDR (droplet-primary particle spatial decay rate) ζDP, which are functions of volume fraction and diameter of particulate species within the powder bed, are defined to simplify the deduction. It is concluded that in cross flow, explicit analytical results show that the droplet concentration is subject to exponential decay with depth which produces a numerically infinite depth of spray zone in a real penetration process. In a well-mixed spray zone, the depth of the spray zone is 4/(ζDG + ζDP) and π2/3(ζDG + ζDP) in cuboid and cylinder shape, respectively. The first-order droplet-based collision rates of, nucleation rate B0 and rewetting rate RW0 are uncorrelated with the flow pattern and shape of the spray zone. The second-order droplet-based collision rate, nucleated granule-granule collision rate RGG, is correlated with the mixing pattern. Finally, a real formulation case of a high shear granulation process is used to estimate the size of the spray zone. The results show that the spray zone is a thin layer at the powder bed surface. We present, for the first time, the spray zone as a well-mixed compartment. The granulation kinetics of a well-mixed spray zone could be integrated into a Population Balance Model (PBM), particularly to aid development of a distributed model for product quality prediction.

Evaporation maps for ternary non-ideal liquid mixtures

This thesis deals with the evaporation of non-ideal liquid mixtures using a multicomponent mass transfer approach. It develops the concept of evaporation maps as a convenient way of representing the dynamic composition changes of ternary mixtures during an evaporation process. Evaporation maps represent the residual composition of evaporating ternary non-ideal mixtures over the full range of composition, and are analogous to the commonly-used residue curve maps of simple distillation processes. The evaporation process initially considered in this work involves gas-phase limited evaporation from a liquid or wetted-solid surface, over which a gas flows at known conditions. Evaporation may occur into a pure inert gas, or into one pre-loaded with a known fraction of one of the ternary components. To explore multicomponent masstransfer effects, a model is developed that uses an exact solution to the Maxwell-Stefan equations for mass transfer in the gas film, with a lumped approach applied to the liquid phase. Solutions to the evaporation model take the form of trajectories in temperaturecomposition space, which are then projected onto a ternary diagram to form the map. Novel algorithms are developed for computation of pseudo-azeotropes in the evaporating mixture, and for calculation of the multicomponent wet-bulb temperature at a given liquid composition. A numerical continuation method is used to track the bifurcations which occur in the evaporation maps, where the composition of one component of the pre-loaded gas is the bifurcation parameter. The bifurcation diagrams can in principle be used to determine the required gas composition to produce a specific terminal composition in the liquid. A simple homotopy method is developed to track the locations of the various possible pseudo-azeotropes in the mixture. The stability of pseudo-azeotropes in the gas-phase limited case is examined using a linearized analysis of the governing equations. Algorithms for the calculation of separation boundaries in the evaporation maps are developed using an optimization-based method, as well as a method employing eigenvectors derived from the linearized analysis. The flexure of the wet-bulb temperature surface is explored, and it is shown how evaporation trajectories cross ridges and valleys, so that ridges and valleys of the surface do not coincide with separation boundaries. Finally, the assumption of gas-phase limited mass transfer is relaxed, by employing a model that includes diffusion in the liquid phase. A finite-volume method is used to solve the system of partial differential equations that results. The evaporation trajectories for the distributed model reduce to those of the lumped (gas-phase limited) model as the diffusivity in the liquid increases; under the same gas-phase conditions the permissible terminal compositions of the distributed and lumped models are the same.

A grouping model for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision

Distributed pipeline assets systems are crucial to society. The deterioration of these assets and the optimal allocation of limited budget for their maintenance correspond to crucial challenges for water utility managers. Decision makers should be assisted with optimal solutions to select the best maintenance plan concerning available resources and management strategies. Much research effort has been dedicated to the development of optimal strategies for maintenance of water pipes. Most of the maintenance strategies are intended for scheduling individual water pipe. Consideration of optimal group scheduling replacement jobs for groups of pipes or other linear assets has so far not received much attention in literature. It is a common practice that replacement planners select two or three pipes manually with ambiguous criteria to group into one replacement job. This is obviously not the best solution for job grouping and may not be cost effective, especially when total cost can be up to multiple million dollars. In this paper, an optimal group scheduling scheme with three decision criteria for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision is proposed. A Maintenance Grouping Optimization (MGO) model with multiple criteria is developed. An immediate challenge of such modeling is to deal with scalability of vast combinatorial solution space. To address this issue, a modified genetic algorithm is developed together with a Judgment Matrix. This Judgment Matrix is corresponding to various combinations of pipe replacement schedules. An industrial case study based on a section of a real water distribution network was conducted to test the new model. The results of the case study show that new schedule generated a significant cost reduction compared with the schedule without grouping pipes.

The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Unusual scene detection using distributed behaviour model and sparse representation

The ability to detect unusual events in surviellance footage as they happen is a highly desireable feature for a surveillance system. However, this problem remains challenging in crowded scenes due to occlusions and the clustering of people. In this paper, we propose using the Distributed Behavior Model (DBM), which has been widely used in computer graphics, for video event detection. Our approach does not rely on object tracking, and is robust to camera movements. We use sparse coding for classification, and test our approach on various datasets. Our proposed approach outperforms a state-of-the-art work which uses the social force model and Latent Dirichlet Allocation.