An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Realized Matrix-Exponential Stochastic Volatility with Asymmetry, Long Memory and Spillovers

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the dynamic covariance matrix. The contribution of the paper ties in with Robert Basmann’s seminal work in terms of the estimation of highly non-linear model specifications (“Causality tests and observationally equivalent representations of econometric models”, Journal of Econometrics, 1988, 39(1-2), 69–104), especially for developing tests for leverage and spillover effects in the covariance dynamics. Efficient importance sampling is used to maximize the likelihood function of RMESV-ALM, and the finite sample properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters are analysed. Using high frequency data for three US financial assets, the new model is estimated and evaluated. The forecasting performance of the new model is compared with a novel dynamic realized matrix-exponential conditional covariance model. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions from returns to volatility and co-volatility.

The deterministic Dendritic Cell Algorithm

The Dendritic Cell Algorithm is an immune-inspired algorithm originally based on the function of natural dendritic cells. The original instantiation of the algorithm is a highly stochastic algorithm. While the performance of the algorithm is good when applied to large real-time datasets, it is difficult to analyse due to the number of random-based elements. In this paper a deterministic version of the algorithm is proposed, implemented and tested using a port scan dataset to provide a controllable system. This version consists of a controllable amount of parameters, which are experimented with in this paper. In addition the effects are examined of the use of time windows and variation on the number of cells, both which are shown to influence the algorithm. Finally a novel metric for the assessment of the algorithms output is introduced and proves to be a more sensitive metric than the metric used with the original Dendritic Cell Algorithm.

Synthetic portfolio for event studies: Estimating the effects of volatility call auctions

We propose a method denoted as synthetic portfolio for event studies in market microstructure that is particularly interesting to use with high frequency data and thinly traded markets. The method is based on Synthetic Control Method and provides a robust data driven method to build a counterfactual for evaluating the effects of the volatility call auctions. We find that SMC could be used if the loss function is defined as the difference between the returns of the asset and the returns of a synthetic portfolio. We apply SCM to test the performance of the volatility call auction as a circuit breaker in the context of an event study. We find that for Colombian Stock Market securities, the asynchronicity of intraday data reduces the analysis to a selected group of stocks, however it is possible to build a tracking portfolio. The realized volatility increases after the auction, indicating that the mechanism is not enhancing the price discovery process.

Relationship Between Orofacial Function, Dentofacial Morphology, And Bite Force In Young Subjects.

The aim was to evaluate the relationship between orofacial function, dentofacial morphology, and bite force in young subjects. Three hundred and sixteen subjects were divided according to dentition stage (early, intermediate, and late mixed and permanent dentition). Orofacial function was screened using the Nordic Orofacial Test-Screening (NOT-S). Orthodontic treatment need, bite force, lateral and frontal craniofacial dimensions and presence of sleep bruxism were also assessed. The results were submitted to descriptive statistics, normality and correlation tests, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regression to test the relationship between NOT-S scores and the studied independent variables. The variance of NOT-S scores between groups was not significant. The evaluation of the variables that significantly contributed to NOT-S scores variation showed that age and presence of bruxism related to higher NOT-S total scores, while the increase in overbite measurement and presence of closed lip posture related to lower scores. Bite force did not show a significant relationship with scores of orofacial dysfunction. No significant correlations between craniofacial dimensions and NOT-S scores were observed. Age and sleep bruxism were related to higher NOT-S scores, while the increase in overbite measurement and closed lip posture contributed to lower scores of orofacial dysfunction.

Impaired Compensatory Beta-cell Function And Growth In Response To High-fat Diet In Ldl Receptor Knockout Mice.

In this study, we investigated the effect of low density lipoprotein receptor (LDLr) deficiency on gap junctional connexin 36 (Cx36) islet content and on the functional and growth response of pancreatic beta-cells in C57BL/6 mice fed a high-fat (HF) diet. After 60 days on regular or HF diet, the metabolic state and morphometric islet parameters of wild-type (WT) and LDLr-/- mice were assessed. HF diet-fed WT animals became obese and hypercholesterolaemic as well as hyperglycaemic, hyperinsulinaemic, glucose intolerant and insulin resistant, characterizing them as prediabetic. Also they showed a significant decrease in beta-cell secretory response to glucose. Overall, LDLr-/- mice displayed greater susceptibility to HF diet as judged by their marked cholesterolaemia, intolerance to glucose and pronounced decrease in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. HF diet induced similarly in WT and LDLr-/- mice, a significant decrease in Cx36 beta-cell content as revealed by immunoblotting. Prediabetic WT mice displayed marked increase in beta-cell mass mainly due to beta-cell hypertrophy/replication. Nevertheless, HF diet-fed LDLr-/- mice showed no significant changes in beta-cell mass, but lower islet-duct association (neogenesis) and higher beta-cell apoptosis index were seen as compared to controls. The higher metabolic susceptibility to HF diet of LDLr-/- mice may be explained by a deficiency in insulin secretory response to glucose associated with lack of compensatory beta-cell expansion.

Long-term Postoperative Atrophy Of Contralateral Hippocampus And Cognitive Function In Unilateral Refractory Mtle With Unilateral Hippocampal Sclerosis.

This study aimed to evaluate long-term atrophy in contralateral hippocampal volume after surgery for unilateral MTLE, as well as the cognitive outcome for patients submitted to either selective transsylvian amygdalohippocampectomy (SelAH) or anterior temporal lobe resection (ATL). We performed a longitudinal study of 47 patients with MRI signs of unilateral hippocampal sclerosis (23 patients with right-sided hippocampal sclerosis) who underwent surgical treatment for MTLE. They underwent preoperative/postoperative high-resolution MRI as well as neuropsychological assessment for memory and estimated IQ. To investigate possible changes in the contralateral hippocampus of patients, we included 28 controls who underwent two MRIs at long-term intervals. The volumetry using preoperative MRI showed significant hippocampal atrophy ipsilateral to the side of surgery when compared with controls (p<0.0001) but no differences in contralateral hippocampal volumes. The mean postoperative follow-up was 8.7 years (± 2.5 SD; median=8.0). Our patients were classified as Engel I (80%), Engel II (18.2%), and Engel III (1.8%). We observed a small but significant reduction in the contralateral hippocampus of patients but no volume changes in controls. Most of the patients presented small declines in both estimated IQ and memory, which were more pronounced in patients with left TLE and in those with persistent seizures. Different surgical approaches did not impose differences in seizure control or in cognitive outcome. We observed small declines in cognitive scores with most of these patients, which were worse in patients with left-sided resection and in those who continued to suffer from postoperative seizures. We also demonstrated that manual volumetry can reveal a reduction in volume in the contralateral hippocampus, although this change was mild and could not be detected by visual analysis. These new findings suggest that dynamic processes continue to act after the removal of the hippocampus, and further studies with larger groups may help in understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Doehlert Design-desirability Function Multi-criteria Optimal Separation Of 17 Phenolic Compounds From Extra-virgin Olive Oil By Capillary Zone Electrophoresis.

In Brazil, the consumption of extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) is increasing annually, but there are no experimental studies concerning the phenolic compound contents of commercial EVOO. The aim of this work was to optimise the separation of 17 phenolic compounds already detected in EVOO. A Doehlert matrix experimental design was used, evaluating the effects of pH and electrolyte concentration. Resolution, runtime and migration time relative standard deviation values were evaluated. Derringer's desirability function was used to simultaneously optimise all 37 responses. The 17 peaks were separated in 19min using a fused-silica capillary (50μm internal diameter, 72cm of effective length) with an extended light path and 101.3mmolL(-1) of boric acid electrolyte (pH 9.15, 30kV). The method was validated and applied to 15 EVOO samples found in Brazilian supermarkets.

Effect Of Exercise Test On Pulmonary Function Of Obese Adolescents.

to investigate the pulmonary response to exercise of non-morbidly obese adolescents, considering the gender. a prospective cross-sectional study was conducted with 92 adolescents (47 obese and 45 eutrophic), divided in four groups according to obesity and gender. Anthropometric parameters, pulmonary function (spirometry and oxygen saturation [SatO2]), heart rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), respiratory rate (RR), and respiratory muscle strength were measured. Pulmonary function parameters were measured before, during, and after the exercise test. BP and HR were higher in obese individuals during the exercise test (p = 0.0001). SatO2 values decreased during exercise in obese adolescents (p = 0.0001). Obese males had higher levels of maximum inspiratory and expiratory pressures (p = 0.0002) when compared to obese and eutrophic females. Obese males showed lower values of maximum voluntary ventilation, forced vital capacity, and forced expiratory volume in the first second when compared to eutrophic males, before and after exercise (p = 0.0005). Obese females had greater inspiratory capacity compared to eutrophic females (p = 0.0001). Expiratory reserve volume was lower in obese subjects when compared to controls (p ≤ 0,05). obese adolescents presented changes in pulmonary function at rest and these changes remained present during exercise. The spirometric and cardiorespiratory values were different in the four study groups. The present data demonstrated that, in spite of differences in lung growth, the model of fat distribution alters pulmonary function differently in obese female and male adolescents.

Matrix Metalloproteinases And Left Ventricular Function And Structure In Spinal Cord Injured Subjects.

Subjects with spinal cord injury (SCI) exhibit impaired left ventricular (LV) diastolic function, which has been reported to be attenuated by regular physical activity. This study investigated the relationship between circulating matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitors of MMPs (TIMPs) and echocardiographic parameters in SCI subjects and the role of physical activity in this regard. Forty-two men with SCI [19 sedentary (S-SCI) and 23 physically-active (PA-SCI)] were evaluated by clinical, anthropometric, laboratory, and echocardiographic analysis. Plasmatic pro-MMP-2, MMP-2, MMP-8, pro-MMP-9, MMP-9, TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and zymography. PA-SCI subjects presented lower pro-MMP-2 and pro-MMP-2/TIMP-2 levels and improved markers of LV diastolic function (lower E/Em and higher Em and E/A values) than S-SCI ones. Bivariate analysis showed that pro-MMP-2 correlated inversely with Em and directly with E/Em, while MMP-9 correlated directly with LV mass index and LV end-diastolic diameter in the whole sample. Following multiple regression analysis, pro-MMP-2, but not physical activity, remained associated with Em, while MMP-9 was associated with LV mass index in the whole sample. These findings suggest differing roles for MMPs in LV structure and function regulation and an interaction among pro-MMP-2, diastolic function and physical activity in SCI subjects.

Urinary Tract Infection In Renal Transplant Recipients: Incidence, Risk Factors, And Impact On Graft Function.

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common infection posttransplant. However, the risk factors for and the impact of UTIs remain controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of posttransplant UTIs in a series of renal transplant recipients from deceased donors. Secondary objectives were to identify: (1) the most frequent infectious agents; (2) risk factors related to donor; (3) risk factors related to recipients; and (4) impact of UTI on graft function. This was a retrospective analysis of medical records from renal transplant patients from January to December 2010. Local ethics committee approved the protocol. The incidence of UTI in this series was 34.2%. Risk factors for UTI were older age, (independent of gender), biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes, and kidneys from deceased donors (United Network for Organ Sharing criteria). For female patients, the number of pretransplant pregnancies was an additional risk factor. Recurrent UTI was observed in 44% of patients from the UTI group. The most common infectious agents were Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, for both isolated and recurrent UTI. No difference in renal graft function or immunosuppressive therapy was observed between groups after the 1-year follow-up. In this series, older age, previous pregnancy, kidneys from expanded criteria donors, and biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes were risk factors for posttransplant UTI. Recurrence of UTI was observed in 44%, with no negative impact on graft function or survival.

Going Beyond Seizure Control: Can Pharmacotherapy Help To Restore Cognitive Network Function?

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Tadalafil-induced Improvement In Left Ventricular Diastolic Function In Resistant Hypertension.

Left ventricular hypertrophy and diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) remain highly frequent markers of cardiac damage and risk of progression to symptomatic heart failure, especially in resistant hypertension (RHTN). We have previously demonstrated that administration of sildenafil in hypertensive rats improves LVDD, restoring phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE-5) inhibition in cardiac myocytes. We hypothesized that the long-acting PDE-5 inhibitor tadalafil may be clinically useful in improving LVDD in RHTN independently of blood pressure (BP) reduction. A single blinded, placebo-controlled, crossover study enrolled 19 patients with both RHTN and LVDD. Firstly, subjects received tadalafil (20 mg) for 14 days and after a 2-week washout period, they received placebo orally for 14 days. Patients were evaluated by office BP and ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), endothelial function (FMD), echocardiography, plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP-32), cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) and nitrite levels. No significant differences were detected in BP measurements. Remarkably, at least four echocardiographic parameters related with diastolic function improved accompanied by decrease in BNP-32 in tadalafil use. Although increasing cGMP, tadalafil did not change endothelial function or nitrites. There were no changes in those parameters after placebo. The current findings suggest that tadalafil improves LV relaxation through direct effects PDE-5-mediated in the cardiomyocytes with potential benefit as an adjunct to treat symptomatic subjects with LVDD such as RHTN patients.

Augmented β-cell Function And Mass In Glucocorticoid-treated Rodents Are Associated With Increased Islet Ir-β /akt/mtor And Decreased Ampk/acc And As160 Signaling.

Glucocorticoid (GC) therapies may adversely cause insulin resistance (IR) that lead to a compensatory hyperinsulinemia due to insulin hypersecretion. The increased β-cell function is associated with increased insulin signaling that has the protein kinase B (AKT) substrate with 160 kDa (AS160) as an important downstream AKT effector. In muscle, both insulin and AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) signaling phosphorylate and inactivate AS160, which favors the glucose transporter (GLUT)-4 translocation to plasma membrane. Whether AS160 phosphorylation is modulated in islets from GC-treated subjects is unknown. For this, two animal models, Swiss mice and Wistar rats, were treated with dexamethasone (DEX) (1 mg/kg body weight) for 5 consecutive days. DEX treatment induced IR, hyperinsulinemia, and dyslipidemia in both species, but glucose intolerance and hyperglycemia only in rats. DEX treatment caused increased insulin secretion in response to glucose and augmented β-cell mass in both species that were associated with increased islet content and increased phosphorylation of the AS160 protein. Protein AKT phosphorylation, but not AMPK phosphorylation, was found significantly enhanced in islets from DEX-treated animals. We conclude that the augmented β-cell function developed in response to the GC-induced IR involves inhibition of the islet AS160 protein activity.

ΛΛ Correlation Function In Au+au Collisions At √[s(nn)]=200 gev.

We present ΛΛ correlation measurements in heavy-ion collisions for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV using the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The Lednický-Lyuboshitz analytical model has been used to fit the data to obtain a source size, a scattering length and an effective range. Implications of the measurement of the ΛΛ correlation function and interaction parameters for dihyperon searches are discussed.