Desindustrialização no Brasil: teorias e evidências para o debate

This study aims to contribute with evidence to reinforce or not the thesis of a possible deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on period after 1995. The debate began in the late 80s, however, recently the industry deceleration gained strength in discussions academic. Between the main theses in this debate is the new-development that believes in precocious deindustrialization caused primarily by overvaluation exchange rate. However, part of heterodoxy believes the industry downturn is more related to the rate of investment than the exchange rate. Nevertheless, according to the orthodox thesis the loss of competitiveness due to the high cost of production may have caused the de-industrialization in Brazil. On the other hand, part of Orthodoxy does not believe that the country is deindustrializing it, but is occurring convergence of Brazilian industry the world average. Thus, in an attempt to shed light on this debate, this study intends to identify the reasons for the deceleration of the Brazilian industry, emphasizing aspects underexplored in the literature and define whether or not the country suffers a process of deindustrialization. When analyzing various indicators, especially the quantum level we find strong indications that the deceleration of the Brazilian industry can be characterized as a deindustrialization, though still insufficient to qualify as precocious, given the loss of share in physical production in total output and the share of primary goods in the export basket

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Paisagens pós-industriais, uma nova oportunidade de sucesso. Fábrica da Fiação de Tomar

Mestrado em Arquitetura Paisagista - Instituto Superior de Agronomia

Productividad sectorial y cambio estructural en América Latina

En este documento se analiza el proceso de transformación estructural para algunas economías de América Latina y su comparación con los milagros asiáticos. De igual forma, para el caso de Colombia y de Corea del Sur, se describe el comportamiento de la productividad agregada y su descomposición sectorial. Los resultados evidencian que, en los dos países, el sector de servicios ha ganado participación en las últimas décadas. Para el caso de Colombia este sector explica en gran medida la baja competitividad del país frente a los Estados Unidos. Por su parte, en Corea del Sur la brecha de productividad con los Estados Unidos se ha cerrado en los tres sectores (agricultura, industria y servicios). Finalmente, se adapta un modelo de cambio estructural para estas dos economías y se encuentra que para Colombia el modelo logra reproducir las tendencias observadas en los datos. Para Corea el modelo no ajusta durante la época de industrialización tardía, pero para las últimas décadas replica de manera cercana los datos.