Analyzing the effects of vertical acceleration and deceleration in multi-phase, debris-flow sediment-column experiments / by Christine Marie Williams.

Water-saturated debris flows are among some of the most destructive mass movements. Their complex nature presents a challenge for quantitative description and modeling. In order to improve understanding of the dynamics of these flows, it is important to seek a simplified dynamic system underlying their behavior. Models currently in use to describe the motion of debris flows employ depth-averaged equations of motion, typically assuming negligible effects from vertical acceleration. However, in many cases debris flows experience significant vertical acceleration as they move across irregular surfaces, and it has been proposed that friction associated with vertical forces and liquefaction merit inclusion in any comprehensive mechanical model. The intent of this work is to determine the effect of vertical acceleration through a series of laboratory experiments designed to simulate debris flows, testing a recent model for debris flows experimentally. In the experiments, a mass of water-saturated sediment is released suddenly from a holding container, and parameters including rate of collapse, pore-fluid pressure, and bed load are monitored. Experiments are simplified to axial geometry so that variables act solely in the vertical dimension. Steady state equations to infer motion of the moving sediment mass are not sufficient to model accurately the independent solid and fluid constituents in these experiments. The model developed in this work more accurately predicts the bed-normal stress of a saturated sediment mass in motion and illustrates the importance of acceleration and deceleration.

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.

Eulerian-Lagrangian two phase debris flow model

The main objective of this work is to develop a quasi three-dimensional numerical model to simulate stony debris flows, considering a continuum fluid phase, composed by water and fine sediments, and a non-continuum phase including large particles, such as pebbles and boulders. Large particles are treated in a Lagrangian frame of reference using the Discrete Element Method, the fluid phase is based on the Eulerian approach, using the Finite Element Method to solve the depth-averaged Navier-Stokes equations in two horizontal dimensions. The particle’s equations of motion are in three dimensions. The model simulates particle-particle collisions and wall-particle collisions, taking into account that particles are immersed in a fluid. Bingham and Cross rheological models are used for the continuum phase. Both formulations provide very stable results, even in the range of very low shear rates. Bingham formulation is better able to simulate the stopping stage of the fluid when applied shear stresses are low. Results of numerical simulations have been compared with data from laboratory experiments on a flume-fan prototype. Results show that the model is capable of simulating the motion of big particles moving in the fluid flow, handling dense particulate flows and avoiding overlap among particles. An application to simulate debris flow events that occurred in Northern Venezuela in 1999 shows that the model could replicate the main boulder accumulation areas that were surveyed by the USGS. Uniqueness of this research is the integration of mud flow and stony debris movement in a single modeling tool that can be used for planning and management of debris flow prone areas.

Eulerian-Lagrangian Two Phase Debris Flow Model

The main objective of this work is to develop a quasi three-dimensional numerical model to simulate stony debris flows, considering a continuum fluid phase, composed by water and fine sediments, and a non-continuum phase including large particles, such as pebbles and boulders. Large particles are treated in a Lagrangian frame of reference using the Discrete Element Method, the fluid phase is based on the Eulerian approach, using the Finite Element Method to solve the depth-averaged Navier–Stokes equations in two horizontal dimensions. The particle’s equations of motion are in three dimensions. The model simulates particle-particle collisions and wall-particle collisions, taking into account that particles are immersed in a fluid. Bingham and Cross rheological models are used for the continuum phase. Both formulations provide very stable results, even in the range of very low shear rates. Bingham formulation is better able to simulate the stopping stage of the fluid when applied shear stresses are low. Results of numerical simulations have been compared with data from laboratory experiments on a flume-fan prototype. Results show that the model is capable of simulating the motion of big particles moving in the fluid flow, handling dense particulate flows and avoiding overlap among particles. An application to simulate debris flow events that occurred in Northern Venezuela in 1999 shows that the model could replicate the main boulder accumulation areas that were surveyed by the USGS. Uniqueness of this research is the integration of mud flow and stony debris movement in a single modeling tool that can be used for planning and management of debris flow prone areas.

An approach to palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto (sea) area during the early Holocene

Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.

Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

Liquefaction and Displacement of Saturated Sand Under Vertical Vibration Loading

In order to investigate the influence of the vertical vibration loading on the liquefaction of saturated sand, one dimensional model for the saturated sand with a vertical vibration is presented based on the two phase continuous media theory. The development of the liquefaction and the liquefaction region are analyzed. It is shown that the vertical vibration loading could induce liquefaction. The rate of the liquefaction increases with the increase of the initial limit strain or initial porosity or amplitude and frequency of loading, and increases with the decrease of the permeability or initial modulus. It is shown also that there is a phase lag in the sand column. When the sand permeability distribution is non-uniform, the pore pressure and the strain will rise sharply where the permeability is the smallest, and fracture might be induced. With the development of liquefaction, the strength of the soil foundation becomes smaller and smaller. In the limiting case, landslides or debris flows could occur.

Mechanics of sediment transport and bedrock erosion in steep landscapes

Erosion is concentrated in steep landscapes such that, despite accounting for only a small fraction of Earth’s total surface area, these areas regulate the flux of sediment to downstream basins, and their rugged morphology records transient changes (or lack thereof) in geologic and climatic forcing. Steep landscapes are geomorphically active; large sediment fluxes and rapid landscape evolution rates can create or destroy habitat for humans and wildlife alike, and landslides, debris flows, and floods common in mountainous areas represent a persistent natural and structural hazard. Despite the central role that steep landscapes play in the geosciences and in landscape management, the processes controlling their evolution have been poorly studied compared to lower-gradient areas. This thesis focuses on the basic mechanics of sediment transport and bedrock incision in steep landscapes, as these are the fundamental processes which set the pace and style of landscape evolution. Chapter 1 examines the spatial distribution of slow-moving landslides; these landslides can dominate sediment fluxes to river networks, but the controls on their occurrence are poorly understood. Using a case-study along the San Andreas Fault, California, I show that slow-moving landslides preferentially occur near the fault, suggesting a rock-strength control on landslide distribution. Chapter 2 provides the first field-measurements of incipient sediment motion in streams steeper than 14% and shows a large influence of slope-dependent flow hydraulics and grain-scale roughness on particle motion. Chapter 3 presents experimental evidence for bedrock erosion by suspended sediment, suggesting that, in contrast to prevailing theoretical predictions, suspension-regime transport in steep streams can be the dominant erosion agent. Steep streams are often characterized by the presence of waterfalls and bedrock steps which can have locally high rates of erosion; Chapters 4 and 5 present newly developed, experimentally validated theory on sediment transport through and bedrock erosion in waterfall plunge pools. Finally, Chapter 6 explores the formation of a bedrock slot canyon where interactions between sediment transport and bedrock incision lead to the formation of upstream-propagating bedrock step-pools and waterfalls.

Potential solar radiation at H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Potential (clear-sky) radiation receipt is modeled for the slopes of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site in the foothills of the southern Cascade mountains of central Oregon. The modeling method developed by Williams is selected and applied to the forest area for the times of the solstices and equinox as well as mid-month times in January, February, April, and May in order to completely characterize the seasonal change of potential radiation at the location. ... It seems that Lookout Creek approximately divides the Andrews Forest into an area of relatively high potential radiation to the north of the creek and relatively lower potential radiation values to the south of the creek. Potential radiation values seem to be associated with the Andrews GIS data layers of debris flows and predominant tree species zones.

Multi-scale modelling of granular avalanches

Avalanches, debris flows, and landslides are geophysical hazards, which involve rapid mass movement of granular solids, water and air as a single-phase system. The dynamics of a granular flow involve at least three distinct scales: the micro-scale, meso-scale, and the macro-scale. This study aims to understand the ability of continuum models to capture the micro-mechanics of dry granular collapse. Material Point Method (MPM), a hybrid Lagrangian and Eulerian approach, with Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is used to describe the continuum behaviour of granular column collapse, while the micromechanics is captured using Discrete Element Method (DEM) with tangential contact force model. The run-out profile predicted by the continuum simulations matches with DEM simulations for columns with small aspect ratios ('h/r' < 2), however MPM predicts larger run-out distances for columns with higher aspect ratios ('h/r' > 2). Energy evolution studies in DEM simulations reveal higher collisional dissipation in the initial free-fall regime for tall columns. The lack of a collisional energy dissipation mechanism in MPM simulations results in larger run-out distances. Micro-structural effects, such as shear band formations, were observed both in DEM and MPM simulations. A sliding flow regime is observed above the distinct passive zone at the core of the column. Velocity profiles obtained from both the scales are compared to understand the reason for a slow flow run-out mobilization in MPM simulations. © 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

藏东南巨厚松散堆积体发育条件、成灾模式及防治对策——以川藏公路然乌至鲁朗段为例

The unique geologic, geomorphic and climatic conditions of southeast Tibet have made the region to develop the multi-style and frequently occurring geologic hazards, especially the collapses and landslides and debris flows along the section of Ranwu-Lulang in Sichuan-Tibet highway. However, most of those geologic hazards have close relationship with the loose accumulations. That is, the loose accumulations are the main carrier of most geologic hazards. Thereof, the huge-thick accumulations along the highway is regarded as the objective in the thesis to study the geologic background, hazarding model and mitigation methods comprehensively, based on the multi-disciplinary theories and former materials. First of all, in the paper, based on field engineering geologic investigations, the genetic type and the characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the huge-thick loose accumulations along the highway, have been analysized from the factors of regional geology and geomorphy and climate, as well as the coupling acting of those factors with inoculation and eruption of the loose accumulations geologic hazards. The huge-thick loose accumulations has complex genetic types and specific regulations of spatiotemporal distribution, closely controlled by the outer environment of the region. The accumulations are composed of earth and boulder, with disorder structure and poor sorting, specific forming environments and depositing conditions. And its physical and mechanic properties are greatly distinguished from rock and common earth inland. When Sichuan-Tibet highway was firstly constructed along the north bank of Purlung Tsangpo River, the huge-thick loose accumulations was cut into many high and steep slopes. Through the survey to the cut-slopes and systematic investigation to their failures, the combination of height and angle of the accumulations slope has been obtained. At the same time, the types of genetic structure of those cut-slopes are also analysized and concluded, as well as their failure models. It is studied in the paper that there are piaster, duality, multielement and complexity types in genetic structure, and rip-dump-repose, rip-shear-slip and weathering-flake types in failure models. Moreover, it is briefly introduced present engineering performance methods and techniques dealing with the deformation and failure of the accumulations cut-slope. It is also suggested that several new techniques of slope enforcement and the method of landslide and rockfall avoiding should be applied. The research of high and steep cut-slope along the highway has broadened the acknowledgement of the combination of cut-slope height and angle. Especially, the dissertation also has made the monographic studies about the geologic background and hazarding models and prevention methods of some classic but difficult accumulations geologic hazards. They are: (1) Research of the engineering geologic background of the 102 landslide group and key problems about the project of tunnel. The 102 landslide group is a famous accumulational one composed of glacial tills and glaciofuvial deposit. The tunnel project is a feasible and optional one which can solve the present plight of “sliding after just harnessing” in the 102 section. Based on the glacial geomorphy and its depositing character, distribution of seepage line, a few drillhole materials and some surveying data, the position of contact surface between gneiss and accumulations has been recognized, and the retreating velocities of three different time scales (short, medium and long term) have been approximately calculated, and the weathering thickness of gneiss has also been estimated in the paper. On the basis of above acknowledgement, new engineering geomechnic mode is established. Numerical analysis about the stability of the No.2 landslide is done by way of FLAC program, which supplies the conclusion that the landslide there develops periodically. Thereof, 4 projects of tunnel going through the landslide have been put forwards. Safety distance of the tunnel from clinohefron has been numerically analysized. (2) Research of the geologic setting and disaster model and hazard mitigation of sliding-sand-slope. From the geologic setting of talus cone, it is indicated that the sliding-sand-slope is the process of the re-transportation and re-deposit of sand under the gravity action and from the talus cone. It is the failure of the talus cone essentially. The layering structure of the sliding-sand-slope is discovered. The models of movement and failure of the sliding-sand-slope has been put forwards. The technique, “abamurus+grass-bush fence+degradable culture pan”, is suggested to enforcement and green the sliding-sand-slope. (3) Characteristics and hazarding model and disaster mitigation of debris flow. The sources of solid material of three oversize debris flows have been analysized. It is found that a large amount of moraine existing in the glacial valley and large landslide dam-break are the two important features for oversize debris flow to be taken place. The disaster models of oversize and common debris flows have been generalized respectively. The former model better interpret the event of the Yigong super-large landslide-dam breaking. The features of common debris flow along the highway section, scouring and silting and burying and impacting, are formulated carefully. It is suggested that check dam is a better engineering structure to prevent valley from steeply scouring by debris flow. Moreover, the function of check dam in enforcing the slope is numerically calculated by FLAC program. (4) Songzong ancient ice-dammed lake and its slope stability. The lacustrine profile in Songzong landslide, more than 88 meters thick, is carefully described and measured. The Optical Simulated Luminescence (OSL) ages in the bottom and top of the silty clay layer are 22.5±3.3 kaB.P., 16.1±1.7 kaB.P., respectively. It is indicated by the ages that the lacustrine deposits formed during the Last Glacial Maximum ranging from 25ka B.P. to 15ka B.P. The special characteristics of the lacustrine sediment and the ancient lake line in Songzong basin indicated that the lacustrine sediment is related to the blocking of the Purlung Tsangpo River by the glacier in Last Glacial Maximum from Dongqu valley. The characteristics of the lacustrine profile also indicate that the Songzong ice-dammed lake might run through the Last Glacial Maximum. Two dimensional numerical modeling and analysis are done to simulate the slope stability under the conditions of nature and earthquake by FLAC program. The factor of safety of the lacusrtine slope is 1.04, but it will take place horizontal flow under earthquake activity due to the liquefaction of the 18.33 m silt layer. The realign to prevent the road from landslide is suggested.

滑坡泥石流信息遥感获取与空间预测

On the issue of geological hazard evaluation（GHE）, taking remote sensing and GIS systems as experimental environment, assisting with some programming development, this thesis combines multi-knowledges of geo-hazard mechanism, statistic learning, remote sensing (RS), high-spectral recognition, spatial analysis, digital photogrammetry as well as mineralogy, and selects geo-hazard samples from Hong Kong and Three Parallel River region as experimental data, to study two kinds of core questions of GHE, geo-hazard information acquiring and evaluation model. In the aspect of landslide information acquiring by RS, three detailed topics are presented, image enhance for visual interpretation, automatic recognition of landslide as well as quantitative mineral mapping. As to the evaluation model, the latest and powerful data mining method, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to GHE field, and a serious of comparing experiments are carried out to verify its feasibility and efficiency. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method to forecast the distribution of landslides if rainfall in future is known baseing on historical rainfall and corresponding landslide susceptibility map. The details are as following: (a) Remote sensing image enhancing methods for geo-hazard visual interpretation. The effect of visual interpretation is determined by RS data and image enhancing method, for which the most effective and regular technique is image merge between high-spatial image and multi-spectral image, but there are few researches concerning the merging methods of geo-hazard recognition. By the comparing experimental of six mainstream merging methods and combination of different remote sensing data source, this thesis presents merits of each method ,and qualitatively analyzes the effect of spatial resolution, spectral resolution and time phase on merging image. (b) Automatic recognition of shallow landslide by RS image. The inventory of landslide is the base of landslide forecast and landslide study. If persistent collecting of landslide events, updating the geo-hazard inventory in time, and promoting prediction model incessantly, the accuracy of forecast would be boosted step by step. RS technique is a feasible method to obtain landslide information, which is determined by the feature of geo-hazard distribution. An automatic hierarchical approach is proposed to identify shallow landslides in vegetable region by the combination of multi-spectral RS imagery and DEM derivatives, and the experiment is also drilled to inspect its efficiency. (c) Hazard-causing factors obtaining. Accurate environmental factors are the key to analyze and predict the risk of regional geological hazard. As to predict huge debris flow, the main challenge is still to determine the startup material and its volume in debris flow source region. Exerting the merits of various RS technique, this thesis presents the methods to obtain two important hazard-causing factors, DEM and alteration mineral, and through spatial analysis, finds the relationship between hydrothermal clay alteration minerals and geo-hazards in the arid-hot valleys of Three Parallel Rivers region. (d) Applying support vector machine (SVM) to landslide susceptibility mapping. Introduce the latest and powerful statistical learning theory, SVM, to RGHE. SVM that proved an efficient statistic learning method can deal with two-class and one-class samples, with feature avoiding produce ‘pseudo’ samples. 55 years historical samples in a natural terrain of Hong Kong are used to assess this method, whose susceptibility maps obtained by one-class SVM and two-class SVM are compared to that obtained by logistic regression method. It can conclude that two-class SVM possesses better prediction efficiency than logistic regression and one-class SVM. However, one-class SVM, only requires failed cases, has an advantage over the other two methods as only "failed" case information is usually available in landslide susceptibility mapping. (e) Predicting the distribution of rainfall-induced landslides by time-series analysis. Rainfall is the most dominating factor to bring in landslides. More than 90% losing and casualty by landslides is introduced by rainfall, so predicting landslide sites under certain rainfall is an important geological evaluating issue. With full considering the contribution of stable factors (landslide susceptibility map) and dynamic factors (rainfall), the time-series linear regression analysis between rainfall and landslide risk mapis presented, and experiments based on true samples prove that this method is perfect in natural region of Hong Kong. The following 4 practicable or original findings are obtained: 1) The RS ways to enhance geo-hazards image, automatic recognize shallow landslides, obtain DEM and mineral are studied, and the detailed operating steps are given through examples. The conclusion is practical strongly. 2) The explorative researching about relationship between geo-hazards and alteration mineral in arid-hot valley of Jinshajiang river is presented. Based on standard USGS mineral spectrum, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration mineral is mapped by SAM method. Through statistic analysis between debris flows and hazard-causing factors, the strong correlation between debris flows and clay minerals is found and validated. 3) Applying SVM theory (especially one-class SVM theory) to the landslide susceptibility mapping and system evaluation for its performance is also carried out, which proves that advantages of SVM in this field. 4) Establishing time-serial prediction method for rainfall induced landslide distribution. In a natural study area, the distribution of landslides induced by a storm is predicted successfully under a real maximum 24h rainfall based on the regression between 4 historical storms and corresponding landslides.

地震P-S波时差耦合作用的斜坡崩滑效应研究

China locates between the circum-Pacific and the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt. The seismic activities in our country are very frequent and so are the collapses and slides of slope triggered by earthquakes. Many collapses and slides of slope take place mainly in the west of China with many earthquakes and mountains, especially in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. When a strong earthquake happening, the damage especially in mountains area caused by geological hazards it triggered such as rock collapses, landslides and debris flows is heavier than that it caused directly. A conclusion which the number of lives lost caused by geological hazards triggered by a strong earthquake in mountains area often accounts for a half even more of the total one induced by the strong earthquake can be made by consulting the statistical loss of several representative earthquakes. As a result, geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes attract wide attention for their great costs. Based on field geological investigation, engineering geological exploration and material data analysis, chief conclusions have been drawn after systematic research on formation mechanism, key inducing factors, dynamic characteristics of geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes by means of engineering geomechanics comprehensive analysis, finite difference numerical simulation test, in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock, discrete element numerical simulation. Based on research on a great number of collapses and landslides triggered by Wenchuan and Xiaonanhai Earthquake, two-set methods, i.e. the method for original topography recovering based on factors such as lithology and elevation comparing and the method for reconstructing collapsing and sliding process of slope based on characteristics of seism tectonic zone, structural fissure, diameter spatial distribution of slope debris mass, propagation direction and mechanical property of seismic wave, have been gotten. What is more, types, formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of collapses and slides of slope induced by strong earthquakes are discussed comprehensively. Firstly, collapsed and slided accumulative mass is in a state of heavily even more broken. Secondly, dynamic process of slope collapsing and sliding consists of almost four stages, i.e. broken, thrown, crushed and river blocked. Thirdly, classified according to failure forms, there are usually four types which are made up of collapsing, land sliding, land sliding-debris flowing and vibrating liquefaction. Finally, as for key inducing factors in slope collapsing and sliding, they often include characteristics of seism tectonic belts, structure and construction of rock mass, terrain and physiognomy, weathering degree of rock mass and mechanical functions of seismic waves. Based on microscopic study on initial fracturing of slope caused by seismic effect, combined with two change trends which include ratio of vertical vs. horizontal peak ground acceleration corresponding to epicentral distance and enlarging effect of peak ground acceleration along slope, key inducing factor of initial slope fracturing in various area with different epicentral distance is obtained. In near-field area, i.e. epicentral distance being less than 30 km, tensile strength of rock mass is a key intrinsic factor inducing initial fracturing of slope undergoing seismic effect whereas shear strength of rock mass is the one when epicentral distance is more than 30 km. In the latter circumstance, research by means of finite difference numerical simulation test and in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock shows that initial fracture begins always in the place of slope shoulder. The fact that fracture strain and shear strength which are proportional to buried depth of rock mass in the place of slope shoulder are less than other place and peak ground acceleration is enlarged in the place causes prior failure at slope shoulder. Key extrinsic factors inducing dynamic fracture of slope at different distances to epicenter have been obtained through discrete element numerical simulation on the total process of collapsing and sliding of slope triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake. Research shows that combined action of P and S seismic waves is the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance less than 64 km to initial epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. What is more, vertical tensile action of P seismic wave plays a leading role near epicenter, whereas vertical shear action of S seismic wave plays a leading role gradually with epicentral distance increasing in this range. On the other hand, single action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance between 64 km and 216 km to initial epicenter. Horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor gradually from combined action between vertical and horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave with epicentral distance increasing in this distance range. In addition, initial failure triggered by strong earthquakes begins almost in the place of slope shoulder. However, initial failure beginning from toe of slope relates probably with gradient and rock occurrence. Finally, starting time of initial failure in slope increases usually with epicentral distance. It is perhaps that the starting time increasing is a result of attenuating of seismic wave from epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for us to construct towns and infrastructure in fragile geological environment along seism tectonic belts and conduct risk management on earthquake-triggered geological hazards by referring to above conclusions.

地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害空间分析预测-以云南小江流域为例

As a typical geological and environmental hazard, landslide has been causing more and more property and life losses. However, to predict its accurate occurring time is very difficult or even impossible due to landslide's complex nature. It has been realized that it is not a good solution to spend a lot of money to treat with and prevent landslide. The research trend is to study landslide's spatial distribution and predict its potential hazard zone under certain region and certain conditions. GIS(Geographical Information System) is a power tools for data management, spatial analysis based on reasonable spatial models and visualization. It is new and potential study field to do landslide hazard analysis and prediction based on GIS. This paper systematically studies the theory and methods for GIS based landslide hazard analysis. On the basis of project "Mountainous hazard study-landslide and debris flows" supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences and the former study foundation, this paper carries out model research, application, verification and model result analysis. The occurrence of landslide has its triggering factors. Landslide has its special landform and topographical feature which can be identify from field work and remote sensing image (aerial photo). Historical record of landslide is the key to predict the future behaviors of landslide. These are bases for landslide spatial data base construction. Based on the plenty of literatures reviews, the concept framework of model integration and unit combinations is formed. Two types of model, CF multiple regression model and landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model are bought forward. CF multiple regression model comes form statistics and possibility theory based on data. Data itself contains the uncertainty and random nature of landslide hazard, so it can be seen as a good method to study and understand landslide's complex feature and mechanics. CF multiple regression model integrates CF (landslide Certainty Factor) and multiple regression prediction model. CF can easily treat with the problems of data quantifying and combination of heteroecious data types. The combination of CF can assist to determine key landslide triggering factors which are then inputted into multiple regression model. CF regression model can provide better prediction results than traditional model. The process of landslide can be described and modeled by suitable physical and mechanical model. Landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model is such a physical deterministic model that can be easily used for landslide hazard analysis and prediction. It couples the general limit equilibrium method and hydrological distribution model based on DEM, and can be used as a effective approach to predict the occurrence of landslide under different precipitation conditions as well as landslide mechanics research. It can not only explain pre-existed landslides, but also predict the potential hazard region with environmental conditions changes. Finally, this paper carries out landslide hazard analysis and prediction in Yunnan Xiaojiang watershed, including landslide hazard sensitivity analysis and regression prediction model based on selected key factors, determining the relationship between landslide occurrence possibility and triggering factors. The result of landslide hazard analysis and prediction by coupled model is discussed in details. On the basis of model verification and validation, the modeling results are showing high accuracy and good applying potential in landslide research.