Parent Prediction of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Infants At Risk: A Follow-up Study

Later-born siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are considered at biological risk for ASD and the broader autism phenotype. Early screening may detect early signs of ASD and facilitate intervention as soon as possible. This follow-up study revisits and re-examines a second-degree autism screener for children at biological risk of autism, the Parent Observation Early Markers Scale (POEMS, Feldman et al., 2012). Using available follow-up information, 110 children (the original 108 infants plus 2 infants recruited after the completion of the original study) were divided into three groups: diagnosed group (n = 13), lost diagnosis group (n = 5), and undiagnosed group (n = 92). The POEMS continued to show acceptable predictive validity. The POEMS total scores and mean number of elevated items were significantly higher in the diagnosed group than the undiagnosed group. The lost diagnosis group did not differ from the undiagnosed group on POEMS total scores and elevated items at any age, but the lost diagnosis group had significantly lower total scores and number of elevated items than the diagnosed group starting at 18 months. Both ASD core and subsidiary behaviours differentiated the diagnosed and undiagnosed groups from 9−36 months of age. Using 70 as a cut-off score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were .69, .84, and .38, respectively. The study provides further evidence that the POEMS may serve as a low-cost early screener for ASD in at risk children and pinpoint specific developmental and behavioural problems that may be amenable to very early intervention.

Comorbid Depression Among Untreated Illicit Opiate Users : Results From a Multisite Canadian Study

This study aimed to describe patterns of major depression (MDD) in a cohort of untreated illicit opiate users recruited from 5 Canadian urban centres, identify sociodemographic characteristics of opiate users that predict MDD, and determine whether opiate users suffering from depression exhibit different drug use patterns than do participants without depression. Baseline data were collected from 679 untreated opiate users in Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, and Quebec City. Using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Short Form for Major Depression, we assessed sociodemographics, drug use, health status, health service use, and depression. We examined depression rates across study sites; logistic regression analyses predicted MDD from demographic information and city. Chi-square analyses were used to compare injection drug use and cocaine or crack use among participants with and without depression. Almost one-half (49.3%) of the sample met the cut-off score for MDD. Being female, white, and living outside Vancouver independently predicted MDD. Opiate users suffering from depression were more likely than users without depression to share injection equipment and paraphernalia and were also more likely to use cocaine (Ps < 0.05). Comorbid depression is common among untreated opiate users across Canada; targeted interventions are needed for this population.

Estudo da vida-de-prateleira do suco de laranja concentrado e congelado

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Reliability, Validity and Classification Accuracy of the South Oaks Gambling Screen in a Brazilian Sample

The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability, validity and classification accuracy of the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) in a sample of the Brazilian population. Participants in this study were drawn from three sources: 71 men and women from the general population interviewed at a metropolitan train station; 116 men and women encountered at a bingo venue; and 54 men and women undergoing treatment for gambling. The SOGS and a DSM-IV-based instrument were applied by trained researchers. The internal consistency of the SOGS was 0.75 according to the Cronbach`s alpha model, and construct validity was good. A significant difference among groups was demonstrated by ANOVA (F ((2.238)) = 221.3, P < 0.001). The SOGS items and DSM-IV symptoms were highly correlated (r = 0.854, P < 0.01). The SOGS also presented satisfactory psychometric properties: sensitivity (100), specificity (74.7), positive predictive rate (60.7), negative predictive rate (100) and misclassification rate (0.18). However, a cut-off score of eight improved classification accuracy and reduced the rate of false positives: sensitivity (95.4), specificity (89.8), positive predictive rate (78.5), negative predictive rate (98) and misclassification rate (0.09). Thus, the SOGS was found to be reliable and valid in the Brazilian population.

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Multicenter trial of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy followed by extrapleural pneumonectomy in malignant pleural mesothelioma

BACKGROUND: The aim of this multicenter trial was to prospectively evaluate neo-adjuvant chemotherapy followed by extrapleural pneumonectomy (EPP) and radiotherapy, including quality of life as outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients had malignant pleural mesothelioma of all histological types, World Health Organization performance status of zero to two and clinical stage T1-T3, N0-2, M0 disease considered completely resectable. Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of three cycles of cisplatin and gemcitabine followed by EPP. Postoperative radiotherapy was considered for all patients. RESULTS: In all, 58 of 61 patients completed three cycles of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. Forty-five patients (74%) underwent EPP and in 37 patients (61%) the resection was complete. Postoperative radiotherapy was initiated in 36 patients. The median survival of all patients was 19.8 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.6-24.5]. For the 45 patients undergoing EPP, the median survival was 23 months (95% CI 16.6-32.9). Psychological distress showed minor variations over time with distress above the cut-off score indicating no morbidity with 82% (N = 36) at baseline and 76% (N = 26) at 3 months after surgery (P = 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: The observed rate of operability is promising. A median survival of 23 months for patients undergoing EPP compares favourably with the survival reported from single center studies of upfront surgery. This approach was not associated with an increase in psychological distress.

The SAKK cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA): a pilot study of a brief tool for clinical decision-making in older cancer patients

BACKGROUND Recommendations from international task forces on geriatric assessment emphasize the need for research including validation of cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA) tools in oncological settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the SAKK Cancer-Specific Geriatric Assessment (C-SGA) in clinical practice. METHODS A cross sectional study of cancer patients >=65 years old (N = 51) with pathologically confirmed cancer presenting for initiation of chemotherapy treatment (07/01/2009-03/31/2011) at two oncology departments in Swiss canton hospitals: Kantonsspital Graubunden (KSGR N = 25), Kantonsspital St. Gallen (KSSG N = 26). Data was collected using three instruments, the SAKK C-SGA plus physician and patient evaluation forms. The SAKK C-SGA includes six measures covering five geriatric assessment domains (comorbidity, function, psychosocial, nutrition, cognition) using a mix of medical record abstraction (MRA) and patient interview. Five individual domains and one overall SAKK C-SGA score were calculated and dichotomized as below/above literature-based cut-offs. The SAKK C-SGA was evaluated by: patient and physician estimated time to complete, ease of completing, and difficult or unanswered questions. RESULTS Time to complete the patient questionnaire was considered acceptable by almost all (>=96%) patients and physicians. Patients reported slightly shorter times to complete the questionnaire than physicians (17.33 +/- 7.34 vs. 20.59 +/- 6.53 minutes, p = 0.02). Both groups rated the patient questionnaire as easy/fairly easy to complete (91% vs. 84% respectively, p = 0.14) with few difficult or unanswered questions. The MRA took on average 8.32 +/- 4.72 minutes to complete. Physicians (100%) considered time to complete MRA acceptable, 96% rated it as easy/fairly easy to complete. Individual study site populations differed on health-related characteristics (excellent/good physician-rated general health KSGR 71% vs. KSSG 32%, p = 0.007). The overall mean C-SGA score was 2.4 +/- 1.12. Patients at KSGR had lower C-SGA scores (2.00 +/- 1.19 vs. 2.81 +/- 0.90, p = 0.009) and a smaller proportion (28% vs.65%, p = 0.008) was above the C-SGA cut-off score compared to KSSG. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest the SAKK C-SGA is a feasible practical tool for use in clinical practice. It demonstrated discriminative ability based on objective geriatric assessment measures, but additional investigations on use for clinical decision-making are warranted. The SAKK C-SGA also provides important usable domain information for intervention to optimize outcomes in older cancer patients.

PICADAR: a diagnostic predictive tool for primary ciliary dyskinesia.

Symptoms of primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) are nonspecific and guidance on whom to refer for testing is limited. Diagnostic tests for PCD are highly specialised, requiring expensive equipment and experienced PCD scientists. This study aims to develop a practical clinical diagnostic tool to identify patients requiring testing.Patients consecutively referred for testing were studied. Information readily obtained from patient history was correlated with diagnostic outcome. Using logistic regression, the predictive performance of the best model was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. The model was simplified into a practical tool (PICADAR) and externally validated in a second diagnostic centre.Of 641 referrals with a definitive diagnostic outcome, 75 (12%) were positive. PICADAR applies to patients with persistent wet cough and has seven predictive parameters: full-term gestation, neonatal chest symptoms, neonatal intensive care admittance, chronic rhinitis, ear symptoms, situs inversus and congenital cardiac defect. Sensitivity and specificity of the tool were 0.90 and 0.75 for a cut-off score of 5 points. Area under the curve for the internally and externally validated tool was 0.91 and 0.87, respectively.PICADAR represents a simple diagnostic clinical prediction rule with good accuracy and validity, ready for testing in respiratory centres referring to PCD centres.

The Use of the Rey 15-Item Test and Recognition Trial to Evaluate Suboptimal Effort in Neuropsychological Assessment with a Pediatric Mild TBI Sample

The utilization of symptom validity tests (SVTs) in pediatric assessment is receiving increasing empirical support. The Rey 15-Item Test (FIT) is an SVT commonly used in adult assessment, with limited research in pediatric populations. Given that FIT classification statistics across studies to date have been quite variable, Boone, Salazar, Lu, Warner-Chacon, and Razani (2002) developed a recognition trial to use with the original measure to enhance accuracy. The current study aims to assess the utility of the FIT and recognition trial in a pediatric mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) sample (N = 112; M = 14.6 years), in which a suboptimal effort base rate of 17% has been previously established (Kirkwood & Kirk, 2010). All participants were administered the FIT as part of an abbreviated neuropsychological evaluation; failure on the Medical Symptom Validity Test (MSVT) was used as the criterion for suspect effort. The traditional adult cut-off score of(99%), but poor sensitivity (6%). When the recognition trial was also utilized, a combination score of(sensitivity = 64%, specificity = 93%). Results indicate that the FIT with recognition trial may be useful in the assessment of pediatric suboptimal effort, at least among relatively high functioning children following mild TBI.

Sensitivity and specificity of the Gastrointestinal Short Form Questionnaire in diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease

Introduction: Gastrointestinal Short Form Questionnaire (GSFQ) is a questionnaire for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) diagnosis, with a version in Spanish language, not yet compared to an objective test. Aims: To establish GSFQ diagnostic performance against 24-hour pH monitoring carried out in two tertiary care hospitals. Methods: Consecutive adult patients with typical GERD symptoms (heartburn, regurgitation) referred for pH monitoring fulfilled the GSFQ (score range 0-30, proportional to probability of GERD). Diagnosis of GERD was established when acid exposure time in distal esophagus was superior to 4.5% or symptom association probability was greater than 95%. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated and best cut-off score determined, with corresponding sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios (LR) (95% confidence interval for each). Results: One hundred and fifty-two patients were included (59.9% women, age 47.9 ± 13.9; 97.4% heartburn; 71.3% regurgitation). pH monitoring was abnormal in 65.8%. Mean GSFQ score was 11.2 ± 6. Area under ROC was 56.5% (47.0-65.9%). Optimal cut-off score was 13 or greater: sensitivity 40% (30.3-50.3%), specificity 71.2% (56.9-82.9%), positive LR 1.39 (0.85-2.26) and negative LR 0.84 (0.67-1.07). Exclusion of questions 1 and 3 of the original GSFQ, easily interpreted as referred to dyspepsia and not GERD, improved only marginally the diagnostic performance: AUROC 59.1%. Conclusion: The GSFQ does not predict results of pH monitoring in patients with typical symptoms in a tertiary care setting.

Glasgow Psychosis Screening tool for use in adults with Intellectual Disabilities (GPS-ID): development and psychometric properties

Background: Prevalence of psychosis is known to be higher in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) than in the general adult population. However, there have been no attempts to develop a psychosis screening tool specifically for the adult ID population. The present study describes the development and preliminary evaluation of a new measure, the Glasgow Psychosis Screening tool for use in Adults with Intellectual Disabilities (GPS-ID). Method: An item pool was generated following: 1) focus groups with adults with ID and psychosis, and their carers and/or workers; 2) expert input from clinicians. A draft scale was compiled and refined following expert feedback. The new scale, along with the Psychotic Symptom Rating Scales was administered to 20 adults with ID (10 with and 10 without psychosis) and their relative or carers. Results: The GPS-ID total score, self-report subscale and informant rating-subscale differentiated psychosis and non-psychosis groups. The tool had good internal consistency (Cronbach’s α=0.91), and a cut-off score ≥4 yielded high sensitivity (90%) and specificity (100%). The method of tool development supports face and content validity. Criterion validity was not supported. Conclusions: Preliminary investigation of the tool’s psychometric properties is positive, although further investigation is required. The tool is accessible to adults with mild to moderate ID and can be completed in 15-30 minutes. The GPS-ID is not a diagnostic tool, therefore any adult exceeding the cut-off score of ≥4 should receive further assessment.

Use of AST platelet ratio index (APRI Score) as an alternative to liver biopsy for treatment indication in chronic hepatitis C

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is one of the most important causes of chronic liver disease in the world, potentially resulting in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the need for liver transplantation. Liver biopsy is currently performed before therapy indication. Although, it is the golden standard there are many reasons to avoid or delay the procedure. APRI Score is an easy, low cost and practice alternative method which was described as an alternative for assessing structural changes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The rationale of this study was to observe the accuracy of APRI Score in comparison to liver biopsy in 400 patients divided into two groups of 200 carriers (Validation and Experimental groups respectively) selected at random or according to liver fibrosis staging (METAVIR). The ROC curves showed a concordance among these two methods of 92% and 88.5% when 1.05 was the cut off (F3 and F4), and 87% and 83%, on 0.75 cut offs (F2-F4). The discordance in advanced fibrosis staging (F3 and F4) was only 16 (8%) and 22 (11%) out of 200 patients in the experimental and validation groups, respectively. In 26 (13%) out of 200 patients in the experimental group and 34 (17%) out of 200 patients in the validation group, there was discordance between APRI Score and liver biopsy in moderate and advanced fibrosis (F2-F4). In conclusion APRI is a serological marker that has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity together with a high predictive value and it can be useful either in the absence of a biopsy or to reduce the frequency with which biopsies need to be carried out to monitor the evolution of chronic hepatitis C and the right moment for treatment indication.

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

A retrospective evaluation of a score system adopted by the Ministry of Health, Brazil in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in childhood: a case control study

Based on a retrospective case-control study we evaluated the score system adopted by the Ministry of Health of Brazil (Ministério da Saúde - MS), to diagnose pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in childhood. This system is independent of bacteriological or histopathological data to define a very likely (> or = 40 points), possible (30-35 points) or unlikely (< or = 25 points) diagnosis of tuberculosis. Records of hospitalized non-infected HIV children at the Instituto de Puericultura e Pediatria Martagão Gesteira of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (IPPMG-UFRJ), were reviewed. Patients were adjusted for age and divided in two different groups: 45 subjects in the case group (culture-positive) [mean of age = 10.64 mo; SD 9.66]; and 96 in the control group (culture-negative and clinic criteria that dismissed the disease) [mean of age = 11.79 mo.; SD 11.31]. Among the variables analyzed, the radiological status had the greater impact into the diagnosis (OR = 25.39), followed by exposure to adult with tuberculosis (OR = 10.67), tuberculin skin test >10mm (OR = 8.23). The best cut-off point to the diagnosis of PTB was 30 points, where the score system was more accurate, with sensitivity of 88.9% and specificity of 86.5%.

Validation of a score for predicting fatal bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The only available score to assess the risk for fatal bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been validated yet. METHODS: We used the RIETE database to validate the risk-score for fatal bleeding within the first 3 months of anticoagulation in a new cohort of patients recruited after the end of the former study. Accuracy was measured using the ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: As of December 2011, 39,284 patients were recruited in RIETE. Of these, 15,206 had not been included in the former study, and were considered to validate the score. Within the first 3 months of anticoagulation, 52 patients (0.34%; 95% CI: 0.27-0.45) died of bleeding. Patients with a risk score of <1.5 points (64.1% of the cohort) had a 0.10% rate of fatal bleeding, those with a score of 1.5-4.0 (33.6%) a rate of 0.72%, and those with a score of >4 points had a rate of 1.44%. The c-statistic for fatal bleeding was 0.775 (95% CI 0.720-0.830). The score performed better for predicting gastrointestinal (c-statistic, 0.869; 95% CI: 0.810-0.928) than intracranial (c-statistic, 0.687; 95% CI: 0.568-0.806) fatal bleeding. The score value with highest combined sensitivity and specificity was 1.75. The risk for fatal bleeding was significantly increased (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% CI 3.7-16.2) above this cut-off value. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of the score in this validation cohort was similar to the accuracy found in the index study. Interestingly, it performed better for predicting gastrointestinal than intracranial fatal bleeding.