Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Non-market use and non-use values for preserving ecosystem services over time : a choice experiment application to coral reef ecosystems in New Caledonia

Non-use values (i.e. economic values assigned by individuals to ecosystem goods and services unrelated to current or future uses) provide one of the most compelling incentives for the preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Assessing the non-use values of non-users is relatively straightforward using stated preference methods, but the standard approaches for estimating non-use values of users (stated decomposition) have substantial shortcomings which undermine the robustness of their results. In this paper, we propose a pragmatic interpretation of non-use values to derive estimates that capture their main dimensions, based on the identification of a willingness to pay for ecosystem protection beyond one's expected life. We empirically test our approach using a choice experiment conducted on coral reef ecosystem protection in two coastal areas in New Caledonia with different institutional, cultural, environmental and socio-economic contexts. We compute individual willingness to pay estimates, and derive individual non-use value estimates using our interpretation. We find that, a minima, estimates of non-use values may comprise between 25 and 40% of the mean willingness to pay for ecosystem preservation, less than has been found in most studies.

Coastal development, coral reefs and marine life in Asia: Tourism's double-edged sword

A large proportion of the world's population, including those of Asian countries, live in close proximity to the coastline. Coastlines are being developed at a £aster rate than ever before and there is now a growing body of literature to show that such activities are affecting the quality of coastal ecosystems and its wildlife (see, for example, Jennings, 2004; Siler et al., 2014; Duke eta!., 2007). This in turn is impacting negatively on the fishing and the tourism industries, amongst others. Millions of people depend on these sectors for their livelihoods and, unsustainable development can only make the plight of those who rely on these resources worse. The tourism industry in the coastal regions is particularly at risk since the industry relies heavily on coastal ecosystems to attract visitors. This chapter discusses the strong links that exist between coastal development, tourism, marine ecosystems and its wildlife, drawing attention to two well-known species widely used in tourism, namely whales and sea turtles, and discussing their conservation in relation to tourism. The chapter is divided into six sections. The second section examines why it is important to strike a balance between coastal development and protecting ecosystems. In this section, we discuss the ma.ior identified causes of coastal ecosystem degradation from the published literature, and the third section focuses attention on tourism development in the Asian region, which is one of the major reasons for coastal degradation. A diagrammatic approach is used to illustrate that planning of coastal tourism development which takes into account environmental impacts could result in economic benefits to the areas and regions concerned. The negative impacts on tourism when coastal ecosystems are damaged are discussed in section four. Section five shows the economic benefits resulting from sea turtle and whale watching-based tourism in Australia, and section six examines tourism as a conservation tool. In this section, the differing experiences of sea turtle tourism in Sri Lanka and Australia are discussed based on our published work. The final section concludes.

Quantifying the state of populations and effects of disturbances at large spatio-temporal scales: The case of coral populations in the great barrier reef

This project was a step forward in applying statistical methods and models to provide new insights for more informed decision-making at large spatial scales. The model has been designed to address complicated effects of ecological processes that govern the state of populations and uncertainties inherent in large spatio-temporal datasets. Specifically, the thesis contributes to better understanding and management of the Great Barrier Reef.

Structural and lithium ion transport studies in sol-gel-prepared lithium silicophosphate glasses

Lithium silicophosphate glasses have been prepared by a sol-gel route over a wide range of compositions. Their structural and electrical properties have been investigated. Infrared spectroscopic studies show the presence of hydroxyl groups attached to Si and P. MAS NMR investigations provide evidence for the presence of different phosphatic units in the structure. The variations of de conductivities at 423 K and activation energies have been studied as a function of composition, and both exhibit an increasing trend with the ratio of nonbridging oxygen to bridging oxygen in the structure. Ac conductivity behavior shows that the power law exponent, s, is temperature dependent and exhibits a minimum. Relaxation behavior has been examined in detail using an electrical modulus formalism, and modulus data were fitted to Kohlraush-William-Watts stretched exponential function. A structural model has been proposed and the unusual properties exhibited by this unique system of glasses have been rationalized using this model. Ion transport in these glasses appears to be confined to unidimensional conduits defined by modified phosphate chains and interspersed with unmodified silica units.

Assembly of sol-gel-grown $Li _{(x)} CoO_{2}$ nanocrystals through electromagnetic irradiation

We report the fabrication of assembled nanostructures from the pre-synthesized nanocrystals building blocks through optical means of exciton formation and dissociation. We demonstrate that Li (x) CoO2 nanocrystals assemble to an acicular architecture, upon prolonged exposure to ultraviolet-visible radiation emitted from a 125 W mercury vapor lamp, through intermediate excitation of excitons. The results obtained in the present study clearly show how nanocrystals of various materials with band gaps appropriate for excitations of excitons at given optical wavelengths can be assembled to unusual nanoarchitectures through illumination with incoherent light sources. The disappearance of exciton bands due to Li (x) CoO2 phase in the optical spectrum of the irradiated film comprising acicular structure is consistent with the proposed mechanism of exciton dissociation in the observed light-induced assembly process. The assembly process occurs through attractive Coulomb interactions between charged dots created upon exciton dissociation. Our work presents a new type of nanocrystal assembly process that is driven by light and exciton directed.

Structural and optical investigations of TiO2 films deposited on transparent substrates by sol-gel technique

An inexpensive and effective simple method for the preparation of nano-crystalline titanium oxide (anatase) thin films at room temperature on different transparent substrates is presented. This method is based on the use of peroxo-titanium complex, i.e. titanium isopropoxide as a single initiating organic precursor. Post-annealing treatment is necessary to convert the deposited amorphous film into titanium oxide (TiO2) crystalline (anatase) phase. These films have been characterized for X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies, atomic force microscopic (AFM) studies and optical measurements. The optical constants such as refractive index and extinction coefficient have been estimated by using envelope technique. Also, the energy gap values have been estimated using Tauc's formula for on glass and quartz substrates are found to be 3.35 eV and 3.39 eV, respectively.

Some studies on TiO2 films deposited by sol-gel technique

TiO2 films are extensively used in various applications including optical multi-layers, sensors, photo catalysis, environmental purification, and solar cells etc. These are prepared by both vacuum and non-vacuum methods. In this paper, we present the results on TiO2 thin films prepared by a sol-gel spin coating process in non-aqueous solvent. Titanium isopropoxide is used as TiO2 precursor. The films were annealed at different temperatures up to 3000 C for 5 hours in air. The influence of the various deposition parameters like spinning speed, spinning time and annealing temperature on the thickness of the TiO2 films has been studied. The variation of film thickness with time in ambient atmosphere was also studied. The optical, structural and morphological characteristics were investigated by optical transmittance-reflectance measurements, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) respectively. The refractive index and extinction coefficient of the films were determined by envelope technique and spectroscopic ellipsometry. TiO2 films exhibited high transparency (92%) in the visible region with a refractive index of 2.04 at 650 nm. The extinction coefficient was found to be negligibly small. The X-ray diffraction analysis showed that the TiO2 film deposited on glass substrate changes from amorphous to crystalline (anatase) phase with annealing temperature above 2500 C. SEM results show that the deposited films are uniform and crack free.

Structural and optical investigations of TiO2 films deposited on transparent substrates by sol-gel technique

An inexpensive and effective simple method for the preparation of nano-crystalline titanium oxide (anatase) thin films at room temperature on different transparent substrates is presented. This method is based on the use of peroxo-titanium complex, i.e. titanium isopropoxide as a single initiating organic precursor. Post-annealing treatment is necessary to convert the deposited amorphous film into titanium oxide (TiO2) crystalline (anatase) phase. These films have been characterized for X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies, atomic force microscopic (AFM) studies and optical measurements. The optical constants such as refractive index and extinction coefficient have been estimated by using envelope technique. Also, the energy gap values have been estimated using Tauc's formula for on glass and quartz substrates are found to be 3.35 eV and 3.39 eV, respectively. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of movement and factors influencing post-release survival of line-caught coral reef fish using recreational tag-recapture data

Six species of line-caught coral reef fish (Plectropomus spp., Lethrinus miniatus, Lethrinus laticaudis, Lutjanus sebae, Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus) were tagged by members of the Australian National Sportsfishing Association (ANSA) in Queensland between 1986 and 2003. Of the 14,757 fish tagged, 1607 were recaptured and we analysed these data to describe movement and determine factors likely to impact release survival. All species were classified as residents since over 80% of recaptures for each species occurred within 1 km of the release site. Few individuals (range 0.8-5%) were recaptured more than 20 km from their release point. L. sebae had a higher recapture rate (19.9%) than the other species studied (range 2.1-11.7%). Venting swimbladder gases, regardless of whether or not fish appeared to be suffering from barotrauma, significantly enhanced (P < 0.05) the survival of L. sebae and L. malabaricus but had no significant effect (P > 0.05) on L. erythropterus. The condition of fish on release, subjectively assessed by anglers, was only a significant effect on recapture rate for L. sebae where fish in "fair" condition had less than half the recapture rate of those assessed as in "excellent" or "good" condition. The recapture rate of L. sebae and L. laticaudis was significantly (P < 0.05) affected by depth with recapture rate declining in depths exceeding 30 m. Overall, the results showed that depth of capture, release condition and treatment for barotrauma influenced recapture rate for some species but these effects were not consistent across all species studied. Recommendations were made to the ANSA tagging clubs to record additional information such as injury, hooking location and hook type to enable a more comprehensive future assessment of the factors influencing release survival.

Effect of DNA extraction on ageing success in coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) otoliths

To maximize the information commonly collected from otoliths, the effect of DNA extraction on the estimation of age with otoliths was evaluated by comparing sagittal otolith samples from common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) for clarity and ageing discrepancies in DNA-extracted and untreated control otoliths. The DNA extraction process had no significant effect, indicating that archived otoliths can be used as a source of DNA while retaining their utility for age estimation.

Phototropic growth in a reef flat acroporid branching coral species

Many terrestrial plants form complex morphological structures and will alter these growth patterns in response to light direction. Similarly reef building corals have high morphological variation across coral families, with many species also displaying phenotypic plasticity across environmental gradients. In particular, the colony geometry in branching corals is altered by the frequency, location and direction of branch initiation and growth. This study demonstrates that for the branching species Acropora pulchra, light plays a key role in axial polyp differentiation and therefore axial corallite development - the basis for new branch formation. A. pulchra branches exhibited a directional growth response, with axial corallites only developing when light was available, and towards the incident light. Field experimentation revealed that there was a light intensity threshold of 45 mu mol m(-2) s(-1), below which axial corallites would not develop and this response was blue light (408-508 nm) dependent. There was a twofold increase in axial corallite growth above this light intensity threshold and a fourfold increase in axial corallite growth under the blue light treatment. These features of coral branch growth are highly reminiscent of the initiation of phototropic branch growth in terrestrial plants, which is directed by the blue light component of sunlight.

Effects of climate change on reproduction,larval development, and adult health of coral trout (Plectropomus spp.)

Climate change is emerging as the single greatest threat to coral-reef ecosystems.The most immediate impacts will be a loss of diversity and changes to fish community composition and may lead to eventual declines in abundance and productivity of key fisheries species. A key component of this research is to assess effects of projected changes in environmental conditions (temperature and ocean acidity) due to climate change on reproduction, growth and development of coral trout (Plectropomus leopardis).Ultimately, this research will fill key knowledge gaps about climate change impacts on larger fishes, which are fundamental to optimizing resilience-based management, and in turn improve the adaptive capacity of industries and communities along the Great Barrier Reef.

Sol → gel transition with rings in a finite polycondensing system in solution

We report a theoretical formulation for the mean cluster size distribution in a finite polycondensing system. Expressions for the mean number of n-mers with j bonds ( nj) are developed. Numerical calculations show that while the non-cyclic molecules make the dominant contribution to the small clusters, the large clusters are dominated by cyclic structures. The number of particles in ringless chains, n n,n-1, decays monotonically with n at all extents of reaction, but n n becomes bimodal near the gel point. We also find that the solvent plays an important role in the cluster size distribution.

Uncertainty in length measurements of live coral trout: implications for compliance and enforcement of minimum legal size limits.

Report on evidence of shrinkage of live coral trout during professional fishing operations on the Great Barrier Reef in 2000. Excel data includes the following fields: Column A. Fish (fish number from 1 -24) Column B. Bin (1-8, container the fish was held in during the experiment) Column C. Measure (1-7, number of the measurement of each fish) Column D. Observer (1 or 2, making the measurement) Column E. Time 2 Column F. Time (time of the day the measurement was made) Column G. FL (Fork Length) Column H. TL (Total Length) Column I. Difference (difference in length between measures) Column J. Order Column K. Temperature (surface water temp under the boat)